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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Day 2 Update... A dynamic mid-level trough will translate eastward into the Intermountain West as a lee cyclone strengthens across the Central High Plains on Sunday. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will be in place beneath a strong mid-level jet supporting an increasing surface wind response over much of far eastern Arizona, New Mexico into eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon. This is still expected to result in a belt of Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions across much of New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Green-up continues across the Central/Southern High Plains but some dormant and receptive fuels remain across the area. Accelerating south-southwest winds coupled with relative humidity falling to around 10 percent, will combine with remaining receptive fuels to allow for an increased fire spread potential across the High Plains of eastern Colorado Sunday. Elevated highlights were extended into this area. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Day 2 Update... A dynamic mid-level trough will translate eastward into the Intermountain West as a lee cyclone strengthens across the Central High Plains on Sunday. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will be in place beneath a strong mid-level jet supporting an increasing surface wind response over much of far eastern Arizona, New Mexico into eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon. This is still expected to result in a belt of Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions across much of New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Green-up continues across the Central/Southern High Plains but some dormant and receptive fuels remain across the area. Accelerating south-southwest winds coupled with relative humidity falling to around 10 percent, will combine with remaining receptive fuels to allow for an increased fire spread potential across the High Plains of eastern Colorado Sunday. Elevated highlights were extended into this area. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Day 2 Update... A dynamic mid-level trough will translate eastward into the Intermountain West as a lee cyclone strengthens across the Central High Plains on Sunday. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will be in place beneath a strong mid-level jet supporting an increasing surface wind response over much of far eastern Arizona, New Mexico into eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon. This is still expected to result in a belt of Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions across much of New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Green-up continues across the Central/Southern High Plains but some dormant and receptive fuels remain across the area. Accelerating south-southwest winds coupled with relative humidity falling to around 10 percent, will combine with remaining receptive fuels to allow for an increased fire spread potential across the High Plains of eastern Colorado Sunday. Elevated highlights were extended into this area. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Day 2 Update... A dynamic mid-level trough will translate eastward into the Intermountain West as a lee cyclone strengthens across the Central High Plains on Sunday. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will be in place beneath a strong mid-level jet supporting an increasing surface wind response over much of far eastern Arizona, New Mexico into eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon. This is still expected to result in a belt of Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions across much of New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Green-up continues across the Central/Southern High Plains but some dormant and receptive fuels remain across the area. Accelerating south-southwest winds coupled with relative humidity falling to around 10 percent, will combine with remaining receptive fuels to allow for an increased fire spread potential across the High Plains of eastern Colorado Sunday. Elevated highlights were extended into this area. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more