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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the western CONUS today. A strong jet will move through the base of the trough and begin to impinge on the central/southern Great Plains by evening. The primary surface low will deepen through the day over the central High Plains and move northeast across NE/SD late tonight. A secondary surface low is expected to develop near/west of the Black Hills during the afternoon. A lee trough/dryline will extend southward into the southern High Plains. Relatively rich low-level moisture will initially be confined to the southern Plains this morning, but will stream quickly northward later today and tonight in advance of the surface lows and dryline. ...Northern Great Plains... Large-scale ascent is expected to increase by evening across the northern Great Plains vicinity, in association with the approaching mid/upper-level trough and jet that will overspread the region. Richer low-level moisture will remain mostly south of this region through much of the day, but steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and increasing deep-layer shear will support development of a few supercells by evening with a threat of hail and damaging winds. The longevity of any surface-based storms is uncertain and could be limited, but some tornado threat could evolve with any supercells that can persist into the evening, as low-level moisture and shear continue to increase. Some clustering and upscale growth will be possible later tonight, with a threat for hail and damaging wind potentially spreading eastward across the Dakotas into MN before the end of the period. ...Central/southern High Plains... Conditionally, the warm-sector environment across the central and southern High Plains will become quite favorable for organized convection, with strong instability developing by late afternoon in conjunction with strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear. However, despite diminishing MLCINH from afternoon into early evening near the dryline, there is only an inconsistent and relatively limited signal for initiation. One area of potential development will be from west-central NE into northwest KS, in the vicinity of the primary surface low. Guidance also has a somewhat stronger signal for development into parts of the southern High Plains, where strong heating/mixing may result in more favorable low-level convergence on the dryline. There is a relative minimum in signal for storm development from west-central/southwest KS toward the OK Panhandle, but any supercell that develops within this region would be within an increasingly volatile environment during the evening, and pose an all-hazards severe threat. Given the very favorable environment and at least some potential for isolated supercell development by early evening in the vicinity of the dryline, the Slight Risk has been expanded southward for the conditional all-hazards threat. It remains possible that portions of the Slight Risk may see little or no storm development. ..Dean/Halbert.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the western CONUS today. A strong jet will move through the base of the trough and begin to impinge on the central/southern Great Plains by evening. The primary surface low will deepen through the day over the central High Plains and move northeast across NE/SD late tonight. A secondary surface low is expected to develop near/west of the Black Hills during the afternoon. A lee trough/dryline will extend southward into the southern High Plains. Relatively rich low-level moisture will initially be confined to the southern Plains this morning, but will stream quickly northward later today and tonight in advance of the surface lows and dryline. ...Northern Great Plains... Large-scale ascent is expected to increase by evening across the northern Great Plains vicinity, in association with the approaching mid/upper-level trough and jet that will overspread the region. Richer low-level moisture will remain mostly south of this region through much of the day, but steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and increasing deep-layer shear will support development of a few supercells by evening with a threat of hail and damaging winds. The longevity of any surface-based storms is uncertain and could be limited, but some tornado threat could evolve with any supercells that can persist into the evening, as low-level moisture and shear continue to increase. Some clustering and upscale growth will be possible later tonight, with a threat for hail and damaging wind potentially spreading eastward across the Dakotas into MN before the end of the period. ...Central/southern High Plains... Conditionally, the warm-sector environment across the central and southern High Plains will become quite favorable for organized convection, with strong instability developing by late afternoon in conjunction with strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear. However, despite diminishing MLCINH from afternoon into early evening near the dryline, there is only an inconsistent and relatively limited signal for initiation. One area of potential development will be from west-central NE into northwest KS, in the vicinity of the primary surface low. Guidance also has a somewhat stronger signal for development into parts of the southern High Plains, where strong heating/mixing may result in more favorable low-level convergence on the dryline. There is a relative minimum in signal for storm development from west-central/southwest KS toward the OK Panhandle, but any supercell that develops within this region would be within an increasingly volatile environment during the evening, and pose an all-hazards severe threat. Given the very favorable environment and at least some potential for isolated supercell development by early evening in the vicinity of the dryline, the Slight Risk has been expanded southward for the conditional all-hazards threat. It remains possible that portions of the Slight Risk may see little or no storm development. ..Dean/Halbert.. 04/27/2025 Read more

WW 0175 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 175 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/27/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 175 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-009-011-015-019-025-037-041-047-270340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES CURRY DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE LEA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL TXC003-165-270340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS GAINES THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 175 TORNADO NM TX 262050Z - 270300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 175 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon into the evening. Supercells capable of large to very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes will be the primary hazards. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Tucumcari NM to 45 miles south southwest of Hobbs NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Smith Read more

WW 0177 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 177 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/27/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 177 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC103-135-301-329-371-389-461-475-495-270340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRANE ECTOR LOVING MIDLAND PECOS REEVES UPTON WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 177 SEVERE TSTM TX 262245Z - 270300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 177 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 545 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 545 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated supercells will pose mainly a large hail risk through early/mid-evening across the region. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles southwest of Wink TX to 40 miles southeast of Midland TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 175...WW 176... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0176 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 176 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW ELD TO 30 E TXK TO 30 SW RUE. ..HALBERT..04/27/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 176 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-103-270340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK OUACHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 176 TORNADO AR OK TX 262145Z - 270300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 176 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Arkansas Southeast Oklahoma Far Northeast Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Environment will remain sufficiently favorable for some supercell storms through at least early evening across the region, which includes some tornado potential. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Mcalester OK to 40 miles south of Hot Springs AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 175... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0573 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 175... FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 0573 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico Concerning...Tornado Watch 175... Valid 270013Z - 270215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 175 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat across WW 175 will continue into the early evening, particularly in the vicinity of two isolated supercells near Roswell and Fort Sumner, NM. DISCUSSION...A pair of rightward-moving supercells have developed along and east of a dryline in eastern New Mexico. Recent trends in the KFDX VAD wind profiles show increasing low-level curvature of the hodograph, which should continue to enlarge this evening with the onset of the nocturnal low-level jet. Easterly surface winds that are antiparallel to the westerly storm-motion vectors will result in an overall enhancement of the storm-relative inflow near the surface, supporting robust updraft development and maintenance into the early evening hours. These supercells will be capable of 60+ MPH winds, 2.0+ inch hail, and tornadoes. Short-term forecast guidance does suggest the boundary layer will begin to stabilize with eastward extent after 01Z, limiting some of the tornado threat after dark, but persistent mesocyclones fed by strong storm-relative inflow may be able to persist a little while longer after dark. ..Halbert.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 32630435 33430472 33950486 34640497 34960502 35390467 35470425 35360379 35100332 34660304 34140293 33510280 33150282 32840292 32610323 32500389 32630435 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0175 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 175 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/27/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 175 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-009-011-015-019-025-037-041-047-270240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES CURRY DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE LEA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL TXC003-165-270240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS GAINES THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0177 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 177 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/27/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 177 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC103-135-301-329-371-389-461-475-495-270240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRANE ECTOR LOVING MIDLAND PECOS REEVES UPTON WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0176 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 176 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N SHV TO 15 E TXK TO 20 NNE DEQ TO 10 ESE FSM. ..HALBERT..04/27/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 176 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-027-057-061-073-097-099-103-109-113-127-270240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LAFAYETTE MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE POLK SCOTT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NM INTO SOUTHWEST TX...AND ALSO NEAR THE ARKLATEX VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms may continue over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas through the evening. A threat for large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered strong to severe storms also remain possible across parts of western/central Arkansas and vicinity. ...Eastern NM into west/central TX... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening from east-central NM into the TX Permian Basin region, near and to the south of a remnant outflow boundary that earlier moved into the region from the east. MLCINH will increase through the evening across the region, and the eastward advance of the NM storms may be limited by a less unstable and increasingly capped airmass to the cool side of the remnant outflow. However, a modest increase in low-level flow through the evening may help to maintain a couple of these supercells, which will tend to propagate southeastward along the instability gradient. Backed low-level flow and modestly enlarged hodographs may continue to support tornado potential with these cells for as long as they persist and remain surface-based. Otherwise, large to very large hail and localized severe gusts will remain a threat with the strongest storms. Farther east, an isolated strong storm or two may yet develop within a persistent cumulus field across parts of central TX. Moderate instability and deep-layer shear could support at least briefly organized storms if initiation occurs, with a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts. ...Western/central AR and vicinity... Moderate instability and modestly enhanced midlevel flow attendant to an MCV over eastern OK have supported occasional supercell structures early this evening from western AR into the ArkLaTex region. A few stronger cells may persist through dusk, accompanied by a threat of hail, isolated damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. A gradual weakening trend is expected later this evening after the onset of nocturnal cooling, though relatively rich low-level moisture may delay this process somewhat and allow for some severe threat to spread into parts of central AR with time. ...Parts of the Carolinas/southeast VA... Widely scattered storms are ongoing this evening from the eastern Carolinas into southeast VA, along/ahead of a cold front. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and modest deep-layer shear could support occasionally strong storms with potential for locally gusty/damaging winds, before storms weaken later this evening. ..Dean.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NM INTO SOUTHWEST TX...AND ALSO NEAR THE ARKLATEX VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms may continue over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas through the evening. A threat for large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered strong to severe storms also remain possible across parts of western/central Arkansas and vicinity. ...Eastern NM into west/central TX... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening from east-central NM into the TX Permian Basin region, near and to the south of a remnant outflow boundary that earlier moved into the region from the east. MLCINH will increase through the evening across the region, and the eastward advance of the NM storms may be limited by a less unstable and increasingly capped airmass to the cool side of the remnant outflow. However, a modest increase in low-level flow through the evening may help to maintain a couple of these supercells, which will tend to propagate southeastward along the instability gradient. Backed low-level flow and modestly enlarged hodographs may continue to support tornado potential with these cells for as long as they persist and remain surface-based. Otherwise, large to very large hail and localized severe gusts will remain a threat with the strongest storms. Farther east, an isolated strong storm or two may yet develop within a persistent cumulus field across parts of central TX. Moderate instability and deep-layer shear could support at least briefly organized storms if initiation occurs, with a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts. ...Western/central AR and vicinity... Moderate instability and modestly enhanced midlevel flow attendant to an MCV over eastern OK have supported occasional supercell structures early this evening from western AR into the ArkLaTex region. A few stronger cells may persist through dusk, accompanied by a threat of hail, isolated damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. A gradual weakening trend is expected later this evening after the onset of nocturnal cooling, though relatively rich low-level moisture may delay this process somewhat and allow for some severe threat to spread into parts of central AR with time. ...Parts of the Carolinas/southeast VA... Widely scattered storms are ongoing this evening from the eastern Carolinas into southeast VA, along/ahead of a cold front. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and modest deep-layer shear could support occasionally strong storms with potential for locally gusty/damaging winds, before storms weaken later this evening. ..Dean.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NM INTO SOUTHWEST TX...AND ALSO NEAR THE ARKLATEX VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms may continue over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas through the evening. A threat for large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered strong to severe storms also remain possible across parts of western/central Arkansas and vicinity. ...Eastern NM into west/central TX... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening from east-central NM into the TX Permian Basin region, near and to the south of a remnant outflow boundary that earlier moved into the region from the east. MLCINH will increase through the evening across the region, and the eastward advance of the NM storms may be limited by a less unstable and increasingly capped airmass to the cool side of the remnant outflow. However, a modest increase in low-level flow through the evening may help to maintain a couple of these supercells, which will tend to propagate southeastward along the instability gradient. Backed low-level flow and modestly enlarged hodographs may continue to support tornado potential with these cells for as long as they persist and remain surface-based. Otherwise, large to very large hail and localized severe gusts will remain a threat with the strongest storms. Farther east, an isolated strong storm or two may yet develop within a persistent cumulus field across parts of central TX. Moderate instability and deep-layer shear could support at least briefly organized storms if initiation occurs, with a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts. ...Western/central AR and vicinity... Moderate instability and modestly enhanced midlevel flow attendant to an MCV over eastern OK have supported occasional supercell structures early this evening from western AR into the ArkLaTex region. A few stronger cells may persist through dusk, accompanied by a threat of hail, isolated damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. A gradual weakening trend is expected later this evening after the onset of nocturnal cooling, though relatively rich low-level moisture may delay this process somewhat and allow for some severe threat to spread into parts of central AR with time. ...Parts of the Carolinas/southeast VA... Widely scattered storms are ongoing this evening from the eastern Carolinas into southeast VA, along/ahead of a cold front. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and modest deep-layer shear could support occasionally strong storms with potential for locally gusty/damaging winds, before storms weaken later this evening. ..Dean.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NM INTO SOUTHWEST TX...AND ALSO NEAR THE ARKLATEX VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms may continue over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas through the evening. A threat for large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered strong to severe storms also remain possible across parts of western/central Arkansas and vicinity. ...Eastern NM into west/central TX... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening from east-central NM into the TX Permian Basin region, near and to the south of a remnant outflow boundary that earlier moved into the region from the east. MLCINH will increase through the evening across the region, and the eastward advance of the NM storms may be limited by a less unstable and increasingly capped airmass to the cool side of the remnant outflow. However, a modest increase in low-level flow through the evening may help to maintain a couple of these supercells, which will tend to propagate southeastward along the instability gradient. Backed low-level flow and modestly enlarged hodographs may continue to support tornado potential with these cells for as long as they persist and remain surface-based. Otherwise, large to very large hail and localized severe gusts will remain a threat with the strongest storms. Farther east, an isolated strong storm or two may yet develop within a persistent cumulus field across parts of central TX. Moderate instability and deep-layer shear could support at least briefly organized storms if initiation occurs, with a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts. ...Western/central AR and vicinity... Moderate instability and modestly enhanced midlevel flow attendant to an MCV over eastern OK have supported occasional supercell structures early this evening from western AR into the ArkLaTex region. A few stronger cells may persist through dusk, accompanied by a threat of hail, isolated damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. A gradual weakening trend is expected later this evening after the onset of nocturnal cooling, though relatively rich low-level moisture may delay this process somewhat and allow for some severe threat to spread into parts of central AR with time. ...Parts of the Carolinas/southeast VA... Widely scattered storms are ongoing this evening from the eastern Carolinas into southeast VA, along/ahead of a cold front. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and modest deep-layer shear could support occasionally strong storms with potential for locally gusty/damaging winds, before storms weaken later this evening. ..Dean.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NM INTO SOUTHWEST TX...AND ALSO NEAR THE ARKLATEX VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms may continue over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas through the evening. A threat for large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered strong to severe storms also remain possible across parts of western/central Arkansas and vicinity. ...Eastern NM into west/central TX... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening from east-central NM into the TX Permian Basin region, near and to the south of a remnant outflow boundary that earlier moved into the region from the east. MLCINH will increase through the evening across the region, and the eastward advance of the NM storms may be limited by a less unstable and increasingly capped airmass to the cool side of the remnant outflow. However, a modest increase in low-level flow through the evening may help to maintain a couple of these supercells, which will tend to propagate southeastward along the instability gradient. Backed low-level flow and modestly enlarged hodographs may continue to support tornado potential with these cells for as long as they persist and remain surface-based. Otherwise, large to very large hail and localized severe gusts will remain a threat with the strongest storms. Farther east, an isolated strong storm or two may yet develop within a persistent cumulus field across parts of central TX. Moderate instability and deep-layer shear could support at least briefly organized storms if initiation occurs, with a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts. ...Western/central AR and vicinity... Moderate instability and modestly enhanced midlevel flow attendant to an MCV over eastern OK have supported occasional supercell structures early this evening from western AR into the ArkLaTex region. A few stronger cells may persist through dusk, accompanied by a threat of hail, isolated damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. A gradual weakening trend is expected later this evening after the onset of nocturnal cooling, though relatively rich low-level moisture may delay this process somewhat and allow for some severe threat to spread into parts of central AR with time. ...Parts of the Carolinas/southeast VA... Widely scattered storms are ongoing this evening from the eastern Carolinas into southeast VA, along/ahead of a cold front. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and modest deep-layer shear could support occasionally strong storms with potential for locally gusty/damaging winds, before storms weaken later this evening. ..Dean.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NM INTO SOUTHWEST TX...AND ALSO NEAR THE ARKLATEX VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms may continue over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas through the evening. A threat for large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered strong to severe storms also remain possible across parts of western/central Arkansas and vicinity. ...Eastern NM into west/central TX... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening from east-central NM into the TX Permian Basin region, near and to the south of a remnant outflow boundary that earlier moved into the region from the east. MLCINH will increase through the evening across the region, and the eastward advance of the NM storms may be limited by a less unstable and increasingly capped airmass to the cool side of the remnant outflow. However, a modest increase in low-level flow through the evening may help to maintain a couple of these supercells, which will tend to propagate southeastward along the instability gradient. Backed low-level flow and modestly enlarged hodographs may continue to support tornado potential with these cells for as long as they persist and remain surface-based. Otherwise, large to very large hail and localized severe gusts will remain a threat with the strongest storms. Farther east, an isolated strong storm or two may yet develop within a persistent cumulus field across parts of central TX. Moderate instability and deep-layer shear could support at least briefly organized storms if initiation occurs, with a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts. ...Western/central AR and vicinity... Moderate instability and modestly enhanced midlevel flow attendant to an MCV over eastern OK have supported occasional supercell structures early this evening from western AR into the ArkLaTex region. A few stronger cells may persist through dusk, accompanied by a threat of hail, isolated damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. A gradual weakening trend is expected later this evening after the onset of nocturnal cooling, though relatively rich low-level moisture may delay this process somewhat and allow for some severe threat to spread into parts of central AR with time. ...Parts of the Carolinas/southeast VA... Widely scattered storms are ongoing this evening from the eastern Carolinas into southeast VA, along/ahead of a cold front. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and modest deep-layer shear could support occasionally strong storms with potential for locally gusty/damaging winds, before storms weaken later this evening. ..Dean.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NM INTO SOUTHWEST TX...AND ALSO NEAR THE ARKLATEX VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms may continue over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas through the evening. A threat for large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered strong to severe storms also remain possible across parts of western/central Arkansas and vicinity. ...Eastern NM into west/central TX... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening from east-central NM into the TX Permian Basin region, near and to the south of a remnant outflow boundary that earlier moved into the region from the east. MLCINH will increase through the evening across the region, and the eastward advance of the NM storms may be limited by a less unstable and increasingly capped airmass to the cool side of the remnant outflow. However, a modest increase in low-level flow through the evening may help to maintain a couple of these supercells, which will tend to propagate southeastward along the instability gradient. Backed low-level flow and modestly enlarged hodographs may continue to support tornado potential with these cells for as long as they persist and remain surface-based. Otherwise, large to very large hail and localized severe gusts will remain a threat with the strongest storms. Farther east, an isolated strong storm or two may yet develop within a persistent cumulus field across parts of central TX. Moderate instability and deep-layer shear could support at least briefly organized storms if initiation occurs, with a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts. ...Western/central AR and vicinity... Moderate instability and modestly enhanced midlevel flow attendant to an MCV over eastern OK have supported occasional supercell structures early this evening from western AR into the ArkLaTex region. A few stronger cells may persist through dusk, accompanied by a threat of hail, isolated damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. A gradual weakening trend is expected later this evening after the onset of nocturnal cooling, though relatively rich low-level moisture may delay this process somewhat and allow for some severe threat to spread into parts of central AR with time. ...Parts of the Carolinas/southeast VA... Widely scattered storms are ongoing this evening from the eastern Carolinas into southeast VA, along/ahead of a cold front. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and modest deep-layer shear could support occasionally strong storms with potential for locally gusty/damaging winds, before storms weaken later this evening. ..Dean.. 04/27/2025 Read more