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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest on Monday into Monday night, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt, upper-level trough will consist of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, moving east-northeast from the central High Plains to the Upper Midwest. A belt of 70+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies will be present from the central Great Plains to the Upper MS Valley on Monday afternoon. Primary surface cyclone should deepen slightly during the day as it advances from eastern SD to the Upper Great Lakes. A dryline will extend from the Mid-MO Valley south-southwest into west TX. A cold front will overtake the dryline as it surges southeast Monday night. ...Upper Midwest... After coordination with affected WFOs, primary adjustments have occurred along the southern extent of the severe probabilities to account for a more conditional, but still potentially significant severe threat. An arc of elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at 12Z Monday from ND across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated large hail will be possible with these morning storms as they move east-northeast. Additional elevated storms will redevelop towards midday/early afternoon to the northeast of the aforementioned surface low. This will slow the advancement of the surface warm front into central MN, but strengthen differential surface heating across the baroclinic zone, with greater warming nosing north from NE into southeast SD. Surface-based storm development should occur by mid-afternoon across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley into southwest/west-central MN along the dryline to surface low. Large hail should be the primary initial threat, but cells may congeal into linear clusters, especially near/across the warm front. A mix of hail/wind/embedded tornadoes is likely, with the latter increasing with southern/eastern extent during late afternoon owing to stronger low-level shear across southeast MN/northeast IA into western WI. Open warm-sector storm development ahead of the dryline is nebulous with low confidence on the degree of ascent ahead of the dryline given the synoptic setup. Conditionally, both the buoyancy/shear parameter space is volatile and supportive of potential for multiple long-track, tornadic supercells. Timing of mid-level height falls tends to favor the evening period after peak heating but CAM signals, outside of the 12Z FV3, are sparse. Greater large-scale ascent appears focused from far northeast IA into WI. This region remains the most favorable for discrete warm-sector development during the evening. Otherwise, upstream linear clusters from southern/eastern MN will likely spread across northern/central WI into parts of Upper MI with a mixed mode of all hazards persisting, before eventually weakening overnight. ...Eastern KS/northern MO to west TX... Overall forcing will be weaker farther south along the dryline, but subtle mid-level height falls across a mostly uncapped warm sector should result in isolated to scattered supercell development during the late afternoon to evening. This appears most likely across western north TX into southwest OK where greater boundary-layer heating and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet are anticipated. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest on Monday into Monday night, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt, upper-level trough will consist of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, moving east-northeast from the central High Plains to the Upper Midwest. A belt of 70+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies will be present from the central Great Plains to the Upper MS Valley on Monday afternoon. Primary surface cyclone should deepen slightly during the day as it advances from eastern SD to the Upper Great Lakes. A dryline will extend from the Mid-MO Valley south-southwest into west TX. A cold front will overtake the dryline as it surges southeast Monday night. ...Upper Midwest... After coordination with affected WFOs, primary adjustments have occurred along the southern extent of the severe probabilities to account for a more conditional, but still potentially significant severe threat. An arc of elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at 12Z Monday from ND across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated large hail will be possible with these morning storms as they move east-northeast. Additional elevated storms will redevelop towards midday/early afternoon to the northeast of the aforementioned surface low. This will slow the advancement of the surface warm front into central MN, but strengthen differential surface heating across the baroclinic zone, with greater warming nosing north from NE into southeast SD. Surface-based storm development should occur by mid-afternoon across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley into southwest/west-central MN along the dryline to surface low. Large hail should be the primary initial threat, but cells may congeal into linear clusters, especially near/across the warm front. A mix of hail/wind/embedded tornadoes is likely, with the latter increasing with southern/eastern extent during late afternoon owing to stronger low-level shear across southeast MN/northeast IA into western WI. Open warm-sector storm development ahead of the dryline is nebulous with low confidence on the degree of ascent ahead of the dryline given the synoptic setup. Conditionally, both the buoyancy/shear parameter space is volatile and supportive of potential for multiple long-track, tornadic supercells. Timing of mid-level height falls tends to favor the evening period after peak heating but CAM signals, outside of the 12Z FV3, are sparse. Greater large-scale ascent appears focused from far northeast IA into WI. This region remains the most favorable for discrete warm-sector development during the evening. Otherwise, upstream linear clusters from southern/eastern MN will likely spread across northern/central WI into parts of Upper MI with a mixed mode of all hazards persisting, before eventually weakening overnight. ...Eastern KS/northern MO to west TX... Overall forcing will be weaker farther south along the dryline, but subtle mid-level height falls across a mostly uncapped warm sector should result in isolated to scattered supercell development during the late afternoon to evening. This appears most likely across western north TX into southwest OK where greater boundary-layer heating and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet are anticipated. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest on Monday into Monday night, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt, upper-level trough will consist of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, moving east-northeast from the central High Plains to the Upper Midwest. A belt of 70+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies will be present from the central Great Plains to the Upper MS Valley on Monday afternoon. Primary surface cyclone should deepen slightly during the day as it advances from eastern SD to the Upper Great Lakes. A dryline will extend from the Mid-MO Valley south-southwest into west TX. A cold front will overtake the dryline as it surges southeast Monday night. ...Upper Midwest... After coordination with affected WFOs, primary adjustments have occurred along the southern extent of the severe probabilities to account for a more conditional, but still potentially significant severe threat. An arc of elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at 12Z Monday from ND across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated large hail will be possible with these morning storms as they move east-northeast. Additional elevated storms will redevelop towards midday/early afternoon to the northeast of the aforementioned surface low. This will slow the advancement of the surface warm front into central MN, but strengthen differential surface heating across the baroclinic zone, with greater warming nosing north from NE into southeast SD. Surface-based storm development should occur by mid-afternoon across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley into southwest/west-central MN along the dryline to surface low. Large hail should be the primary initial threat, but cells may congeal into linear clusters, especially near/across the warm front. A mix of hail/wind/embedded tornadoes is likely, with the latter increasing with southern/eastern extent during late afternoon owing to stronger low-level shear across southeast MN/northeast IA into western WI. Open warm-sector storm development ahead of the dryline is nebulous with low confidence on the degree of ascent ahead of the dryline given the synoptic setup. Conditionally, both the buoyancy/shear parameter space is volatile and supportive of potential for multiple long-track, tornadic supercells. Timing of mid-level height falls tends to favor the evening period after peak heating but CAM signals, outside of the 12Z FV3, are sparse. Greater large-scale ascent appears focused from far northeast IA into WI. This region remains the most favorable for discrete warm-sector development during the evening. Otherwise, upstream linear clusters from southern/eastern MN will likely spread across northern/central WI into parts of Upper MI with a mixed mode of all hazards persisting, before eventually weakening overnight. ...Eastern KS/northern MO to west TX... Overall forcing will be weaker farther south along the dryline, but subtle mid-level height falls across a mostly uncapped warm sector should result in isolated to scattered supercell development during the late afternoon to evening. This appears most likely across western north TX into southwest OK where greater boundary-layer heating and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet are anticipated. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest on Monday into Monday night, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt, upper-level trough will consist of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, moving east-northeast from the central High Plains to the Upper Midwest. A belt of 70+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies will be present from the central Great Plains to the Upper MS Valley on Monday afternoon. Primary surface cyclone should deepen slightly during the day as it advances from eastern SD to the Upper Great Lakes. A dryline will extend from the Mid-MO Valley south-southwest into west TX. A cold front will overtake the dryline as it surges southeast Monday night. ...Upper Midwest... After coordination with affected WFOs, primary adjustments have occurred along the southern extent of the severe probabilities to account for a more conditional, but still potentially significant severe threat. An arc of elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at 12Z Monday from ND across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated large hail will be possible with these morning storms as they move east-northeast. Additional elevated storms will redevelop towards midday/early afternoon to the northeast of the aforementioned surface low. This will slow the advancement of the surface warm front into central MN, but strengthen differential surface heating across the baroclinic zone, with greater warming nosing north from NE into southeast SD. Surface-based storm development should occur by mid-afternoon across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley into southwest/west-central MN along the dryline to surface low. Large hail should be the primary initial threat, but cells may congeal into linear clusters, especially near/across the warm front. A mix of hail/wind/embedded tornadoes is likely, with the latter increasing with southern/eastern extent during late afternoon owing to stronger low-level shear across southeast MN/northeast IA into western WI. Open warm-sector storm development ahead of the dryline is nebulous with low confidence on the degree of ascent ahead of the dryline given the synoptic setup. Conditionally, both the buoyancy/shear parameter space is volatile and supportive of potential for multiple long-track, tornadic supercells. Timing of mid-level height falls tends to favor the evening period after peak heating but CAM signals, outside of the 12Z FV3, are sparse. Greater large-scale ascent appears focused from far northeast IA into WI. This region remains the most favorable for discrete warm-sector development during the evening. Otherwise, upstream linear clusters from southern/eastern MN will likely spread across northern/central WI into parts of Upper MI with a mixed mode of all hazards persisting, before eventually weakening overnight. ...Eastern KS/northern MO to west TX... Overall forcing will be weaker farther south along the dryline, but subtle mid-level height falls across a mostly uncapped warm sector should result in isolated to scattered supercell development during the late afternoon to evening. This appears most likely across western north TX into southwest OK where greater boundary-layer heating and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet are anticipated. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest on Monday into Monday night, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt, upper-level trough will consist of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, moving east-northeast from the central High Plains to the Upper Midwest. A belt of 70+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies will be present from the central Great Plains to the Upper MS Valley on Monday afternoon. Primary surface cyclone should deepen slightly during the day as it advances from eastern SD to the Upper Great Lakes. A dryline will extend from the Mid-MO Valley south-southwest into west TX. A cold front will overtake the dryline as it surges southeast Monday night. ...Upper Midwest... After coordination with affected WFOs, primary adjustments have occurred along the southern extent of the severe probabilities to account for a more conditional, but still potentially significant severe threat. An arc of elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at 12Z Monday from ND across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated large hail will be possible with these morning storms as they move east-northeast. Additional elevated storms will redevelop towards midday/early afternoon to the northeast of the aforementioned surface low. This will slow the advancement of the surface warm front into central MN, but strengthen differential surface heating across the baroclinic zone, with greater warming nosing north from NE into southeast SD. Surface-based storm development should occur by mid-afternoon across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley into southwest/west-central MN along the dryline to surface low. Large hail should be the primary initial threat, but cells may congeal into linear clusters, especially near/across the warm front. A mix of hail/wind/embedded tornadoes is likely, with the latter increasing with southern/eastern extent during late afternoon owing to stronger low-level shear across southeast MN/northeast IA into western WI. Open warm-sector storm development ahead of the dryline is nebulous with low confidence on the degree of ascent ahead of the dryline given the synoptic setup. Conditionally, both the buoyancy/shear parameter space is volatile and supportive of potential for multiple long-track, tornadic supercells. Timing of mid-level height falls tends to favor the evening period after peak heating but CAM signals, outside of the 12Z FV3, are sparse. Greater large-scale ascent appears focused from far northeast IA into WI. This region remains the most favorable for discrete warm-sector development during the evening. Otherwise, upstream linear clusters from southern/eastern MN will likely spread across northern/central WI into parts of Upper MI with a mixed mode of all hazards persisting, before eventually weakening overnight. ...Eastern KS/northern MO to west TX... Overall forcing will be weaker farther south along the dryline, but subtle mid-level height falls across a mostly uncapped warm sector should result in isolated to scattered supercell development during the late afternoon to evening. This appears most likely across western north TX into southwest OK where greater boundary-layer heating and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet are anticipated. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest on Monday into Monday night, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt, upper-level trough will consist of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, moving east-northeast from the central High Plains to the Upper Midwest. A belt of 70+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies will be present from the central Great Plains to the Upper MS Valley on Monday afternoon. Primary surface cyclone should deepen slightly during the day as it advances from eastern SD to the Upper Great Lakes. A dryline will extend from the Mid-MO Valley south-southwest into west TX. A cold front will overtake the dryline as it surges southeast Monday night. ...Upper Midwest... After coordination with affected WFOs, primary adjustments have occurred along the southern extent of the severe probabilities to account for a more conditional, but still potentially significant severe threat. An arc of elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at 12Z Monday from ND across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated large hail will be possible with these morning storms as they move east-northeast. Additional elevated storms will redevelop towards midday/early afternoon to the northeast of the aforementioned surface low. This will slow the advancement of the surface warm front into central MN, but strengthen differential surface heating across the baroclinic zone, with greater warming nosing north from NE into southeast SD. Surface-based storm development should occur by mid-afternoon across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley into southwest/west-central MN along the dryline to surface low. Large hail should be the primary initial threat, but cells may congeal into linear clusters, especially near/across the warm front. A mix of hail/wind/embedded tornadoes is likely, with the latter increasing with southern/eastern extent during late afternoon owing to stronger low-level shear across southeast MN/northeast IA into western WI. Open warm-sector storm development ahead of the dryline is nebulous with low confidence on the degree of ascent ahead of the dryline given the synoptic setup. Conditionally, both the buoyancy/shear parameter space is volatile and supportive of potential for multiple long-track, tornadic supercells. Timing of mid-level height falls tends to favor the evening period after peak heating but CAM signals, outside of the 12Z FV3, are sparse. Greater large-scale ascent appears focused from far northeast IA into WI. This region remains the most favorable for discrete warm-sector development during the evening. Otherwise, upstream linear clusters from southern/eastern MN will likely spread across northern/central WI into parts of Upper MI with a mixed mode of all hazards persisting, before eventually weakening overnight. ...Eastern KS/northern MO to west TX... Overall forcing will be weaker farther south along the dryline, but subtle mid-level height falls across a mostly uncapped warm sector should result in isolated to scattered supercell development during the late afternoon to evening. This appears most likely across western north TX into southwest OK where greater boundary-layer heating and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet are anticipated. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest on Monday into Monday night, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt, upper-level trough will consist of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, moving east-northeast from the central High Plains to the Upper Midwest. A belt of 70+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies will be present from the central Great Plains to the Upper MS Valley on Monday afternoon. Primary surface cyclone should deepen slightly during the day as it advances from eastern SD to the Upper Great Lakes. A dryline will extend from the Mid-MO Valley south-southwest into west TX. A cold front will overtake the dryline as it surges southeast Monday night. ...Upper Midwest... After coordination with affected WFOs, primary adjustments have occurred along the southern extent of the severe probabilities to account for a more conditional, but still potentially significant severe threat. An arc of elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at 12Z Monday from ND across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated large hail will be possible with these morning storms as they move east-northeast. Additional elevated storms will redevelop towards midday/early afternoon to the northeast of the aforementioned surface low. This will slow the advancement of the surface warm front into central MN, but strengthen differential surface heating across the baroclinic zone, with greater warming nosing north from NE into southeast SD. Surface-based storm development should occur by mid-afternoon across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley into southwest/west-central MN along the dryline to surface low. Large hail should be the primary initial threat, but cells may congeal into linear clusters, especially near/across the warm front. A mix of hail/wind/embedded tornadoes is likely, with the latter increasing with southern/eastern extent during late afternoon owing to stronger low-level shear across southeast MN/northeast IA into western WI. Open warm-sector storm development ahead of the dryline is nebulous with low confidence on the degree of ascent ahead of the dryline given the synoptic setup. Conditionally, both the buoyancy/shear parameter space is volatile and supportive of potential for multiple long-track, tornadic supercells. Timing of mid-level height falls tends to favor the evening period after peak heating but CAM signals, outside of the 12Z FV3, are sparse. Greater large-scale ascent appears focused from far northeast IA into WI. This region remains the most favorable for discrete warm-sector development during the evening. Otherwise, upstream linear clusters from southern/eastern MN will likely spread across northern/central WI into parts of Upper MI with a mixed mode of all hazards persisting, before eventually weakening overnight. ...Eastern KS/northern MO to west TX... Overall forcing will be weaker farther south along the dryline, but subtle mid-level height falls across a mostly uncapped warm sector should result in isolated to scattered supercell development during the late afternoon to evening. This appears most likely across western north TX into southwest OK where greater boundary-layer heating and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet are anticipated. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest on Monday into Monday night, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt, upper-level trough will consist of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, moving east-northeast from the central High Plains to the Upper Midwest. A belt of 70+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies will be present from the central Great Plains to the Upper MS Valley on Monday afternoon. Primary surface cyclone should deepen slightly during the day as it advances from eastern SD to the Upper Great Lakes. A dryline will extend from the Mid-MO Valley south-southwest into west TX. A cold front will overtake the dryline as it surges southeast Monday night. ...Upper Midwest... After coordination with affected WFOs, primary adjustments have occurred along the southern extent of the severe probabilities to account for a more conditional, but still potentially significant severe threat. An arc of elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at 12Z Monday from ND across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated large hail will be possible with these morning storms as they move east-northeast. Additional elevated storms will redevelop towards midday/early afternoon to the northeast of the aforementioned surface low. This will slow the advancement of the surface warm front into central MN, but strengthen differential surface heating across the baroclinic zone, with greater warming nosing north from NE into southeast SD. Surface-based storm development should occur by mid-afternoon across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley into southwest/west-central MN along the dryline to surface low. Large hail should be the primary initial threat, but cells may congeal into linear clusters, especially near/across the warm front. A mix of hail/wind/embedded tornadoes is likely, with the latter increasing with southern/eastern extent during late afternoon owing to stronger low-level shear across southeast MN/northeast IA into western WI. Open warm-sector storm development ahead of the dryline is nebulous with low confidence on the degree of ascent ahead of the dryline given the synoptic setup. Conditionally, both the buoyancy/shear parameter space is volatile and supportive of potential for multiple long-track, tornadic supercells. Timing of mid-level height falls tends to favor the evening period after peak heating but CAM signals, outside of the 12Z FV3, are sparse. Greater large-scale ascent appears focused from far northeast IA into WI. This region remains the most favorable for discrete warm-sector development during the evening. Otherwise, upstream linear clusters from southern/eastern MN will likely spread across northern/central WI into parts of Upper MI with a mixed mode of all hazards persisting, before eventually weakening overnight. ...Eastern KS/northern MO to west TX... Overall forcing will be weaker farther south along the dryline, but subtle mid-level height falls across a mostly uncapped warm sector should result in isolated to scattered supercell development during the late afternoon to evening. This appears most likely across western north TX into southwest OK where greater boundary-layer heating and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet are anticipated. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest on Monday into Monday night, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt, upper-level trough will consist of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, moving east-northeast from the central High Plains to the Upper Midwest. A belt of 70+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies will be present from the central Great Plains to the Upper MS Valley on Monday afternoon. Primary surface cyclone should deepen slightly during the day as it advances from eastern SD to the Upper Great Lakes. A dryline will extend from the Mid-MO Valley south-southwest into west TX. A cold front will overtake the dryline as it surges southeast Monday night. ...Upper Midwest... After coordination with affected WFOs, primary adjustments have occurred along the southern extent of the severe probabilities to account for a more conditional, but still potentially significant severe threat. An arc of elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at 12Z Monday from ND across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated large hail will be possible with these morning storms as they move east-northeast. Additional elevated storms will redevelop towards midday/early afternoon to the northeast of the aforementioned surface low. This will slow the advancement of the surface warm front into central MN, but strengthen differential surface heating across the baroclinic zone, with greater warming nosing north from NE into southeast SD. Surface-based storm development should occur by mid-afternoon across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley into southwest/west-central MN along the dryline to surface low. Large hail should be the primary initial threat, but cells may congeal into linear clusters, especially near/across the warm front. A mix of hail/wind/embedded tornadoes is likely, with the latter increasing with southern/eastern extent during late afternoon owing to stronger low-level shear across southeast MN/northeast IA into western WI. Open warm-sector storm development ahead of the dryline is nebulous with low confidence on the degree of ascent ahead of the dryline given the synoptic setup. Conditionally, both the buoyancy/shear parameter space is volatile and supportive of potential for multiple long-track, tornadic supercells. Timing of mid-level height falls tends to favor the evening period after peak heating but CAM signals, outside of the 12Z FV3, are sparse. Greater large-scale ascent appears focused from far northeast IA into WI. This region remains the most favorable for discrete warm-sector development during the evening. Otherwise, upstream linear clusters from southern/eastern MN will likely spread across northern/central WI into parts of Upper MI with a mixed mode of all hazards persisting, before eventually weakening overnight. ...Eastern KS/northern MO to west TX... Overall forcing will be weaker farther south along the dryline, but subtle mid-level height falls across a mostly uncapped warm sector should result in isolated to scattered supercell development during the late afternoon to evening. This appears most likely across western north TX into southwest OK where greater boundary-layer heating and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet are anticipated. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest on Monday into Monday night, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt, upper-level trough will consist of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, moving east-northeast from the central High Plains to the Upper Midwest. A belt of 70+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies will be present from the central Great Plains to the Upper MS Valley on Monday afternoon. Primary surface cyclone should deepen slightly during the day as it advances from eastern SD to the Upper Great Lakes. A dryline will extend from the Mid-MO Valley south-southwest into west TX. A cold front will overtake the dryline as it surges southeast Monday night. ...Upper Midwest... After coordination with affected WFOs, primary adjustments have occurred along the southern extent of the severe probabilities to account for a more conditional, but still potentially significant severe threat. An arc of elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at 12Z Monday from ND across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated large hail will be possible with these morning storms as they move east-northeast. Additional elevated storms will redevelop towards midday/early afternoon to the northeast of the aforementioned surface low. This will slow the advancement of the surface warm front into central MN, but strengthen differential surface heating across the baroclinic zone, with greater warming nosing north from NE into southeast SD. Surface-based storm development should occur by mid-afternoon across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley into southwest/west-central MN along the dryline to surface low. Large hail should be the primary initial threat, but cells may congeal into linear clusters, especially near/across the warm front. A mix of hail/wind/embedded tornadoes is likely, with the latter increasing with southern/eastern extent during late afternoon owing to stronger low-level shear across southeast MN/northeast IA into western WI. Open warm-sector storm development ahead of the dryline is nebulous with low confidence on the degree of ascent ahead of the dryline given the synoptic setup. Conditionally, both the buoyancy/shear parameter space is volatile and supportive of potential for multiple long-track, tornadic supercells. Timing of mid-level height falls tends to favor the evening period after peak heating but CAM signals, outside of the 12Z FV3, are sparse. Greater large-scale ascent appears focused from far northeast IA into WI. This region remains the most favorable for discrete warm-sector development during the evening. Otherwise, upstream linear clusters from southern/eastern MN will likely spread across northern/central WI into parts of Upper MI with a mixed mode of all hazards persisting, before eventually weakening overnight. ...Eastern KS/northern MO to west TX... Overall forcing will be weaker farther south along the dryline, but subtle mid-level height falls across a mostly uncapped warm sector should result in isolated to scattered supercell development during the late afternoon to evening. This appears most likely across western north TX into southwest OK where greater boundary-layer heating and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet are anticipated. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest on Monday into Monday night, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt, upper-level trough will consist of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, moving east-northeast from the central High Plains to the Upper Midwest. A belt of 70+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies will be present from the central Great Plains to the Upper MS Valley on Monday afternoon. Primary surface cyclone should deepen slightly during the day as it advances from eastern SD to the Upper Great Lakes. A dryline will extend from the Mid-MO Valley south-southwest into west TX. A cold front will overtake the dryline as it surges southeast Monday night. ...Upper Midwest... After coordination with affected WFOs, primary adjustments have occurred along the southern extent of the severe probabilities to account for a more conditional, but still potentially significant severe threat. An arc of elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at 12Z Monday from ND across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated large hail will be possible with these morning storms as they move east-northeast. Additional elevated storms will redevelop towards midday/early afternoon to the northeast of the aforementioned surface low. This will slow the advancement of the surface warm front into central MN, but strengthen differential surface heating across the baroclinic zone, with greater warming nosing north from NE into southeast SD. Surface-based storm development should occur by mid-afternoon across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley into southwest/west-central MN along the dryline to surface low. Large hail should be the primary initial threat, but cells may congeal into linear clusters, especially near/across the warm front. A mix of hail/wind/embedded tornadoes is likely, with the latter increasing with southern/eastern extent during late afternoon owing to stronger low-level shear across southeast MN/northeast IA into western WI. Open warm-sector storm development ahead of the dryline is nebulous with low confidence on the degree of ascent ahead of the dryline given the synoptic setup. Conditionally, both the buoyancy/shear parameter space is volatile and supportive of potential for multiple long-track, tornadic supercells. Timing of mid-level height falls tends to favor the evening period after peak heating but CAM signals, outside of the 12Z FV3, are sparse. Greater large-scale ascent appears focused from far northeast IA into WI. This region remains the most favorable for discrete warm-sector development during the evening. Otherwise, upstream linear clusters from southern/eastern MN will likely spread across northern/central WI into parts of Upper MI with a mixed mode of all hazards persisting, before eventually weakening overnight. ...Eastern KS/northern MO to west TX... Overall forcing will be weaker farther south along the dryline, but subtle mid-level height falls across a mostly uncapped warm sector should result in isolated to scattered supercell development during the late afternoon to evening. This appears most likely across western north TX into southwest OK where greater boundary-layer heating and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet are anticipated. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest on Monday into Monday night, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt, upper-level trough will consist of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, moving east-northeast from the central High Plains to the Upper Midwest. A belt of 70+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies will be present from the central Great Plains to the Upper MS Valley on Monday afternoon. Primary surface cyclone should deepen slightly during the day as it advances from eastern SD to the Upper Great Lakes. A dryline will extend from the Mid-MO Valley south-southwest into west TX. A cold front will overtake the dryline as it surges southeast Monday night. ...Upper Midwest... After coordination with affected WFOs, primary adjustments have occurred along the southern extent of the severe probabilities to account for a more conditional, but still potentially significant severe threat. An arc of elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at 12Z Monday from ND across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated large hail will be possible with these morning storms as they move east-northeast. Additional elevated storms will redevelop towards midday/early afternoon to the northeast of the aforementioned surface low. This will slow the advancement of the surface warm front into central MN, but strengthen differential surface heating across the baroclinic zone, with greater warming nosing north from NE into southeast SD. Surface-based storm development should occur by mid-afternoon across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley into southwest/west-central MN along the dryline to surface low. Large hail should be the primary initial threat, but cells may congeal into linear clusters, especially near/across the warm front. A mix of hail/wind/embedded tornadoes is likely, with the latter increasing with southern/eastern extent during late afternoon owing to stronger low-level shear across southeast MN/northeast IA into western WI. Open warm-sector storm development ahead of the dryline is nebulous with low confidence on the degree of ascent ahead of the dryline given the synoptic setup. Conditionally, both the buoyancy/shear parameter space is volatile and supportive of potential for multiple long-track, tornadic supercells. Timing of mid-level height falls tends to favor the evening period after peak heating but CAM signals, outside of the 12Z FV3, are sparse. Greater large-scale ascent appears focused from far northeast IA into WI. This region remains the most favorable for discrete warm-sector development during the evening. Otherwise, upstream linear clusters from southern/eastern MN will likely spread across northern/central WI into parts of Upper MI with a mixed mode of all hazards persisting, before eventually weakening overnight. ...Eastern KS/northern MO to west TX... Overall forcing will be weaker farther south along the dryline, but subtle mid-level height falls across a mostly uncapped warm sector should result in isolated to scattered supercell development during the late afternoon to evening. This appears most likely across western north TX into southwest OK where greater boundary-layer heating and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet are anticipated. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey... Elevated highlights were added across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey where strong offshore flow within a post-frontal regime is ongoing. Northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph combined with relative humidity falling into the 25-35 percent range are expected through the early afternoon before winds subside late afternoon. Rainfall over the last 48 hours was spotty so pockets of receptive fuels remain, primarily in the New Jersey Pinelands. ...Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Significant fire weather threat remains across the Southwest with swath of Extremely Critical highlights in place across much of southern and central New Mexico. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Utah and far western Colorado to account for some lower elevation receptive fuels. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey... Elevated highlights were added across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey where strong offshore flow within a post-frontal regime is ongoing. Northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph combined with relative humidity falling into the 25-35 percent range are expected through the early afternoon before winds subside late afternoon. Rainfall over the last 48 hours was spotty so pockets of receptive fuels remain, primarily in the New Jersey Pinelands. ...Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Significant fire weather threat remains across the Southwest with swath of Extremely Critical highlights in place across much of southern and central New Mexico. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Utah and far western Colorado to account for some lower elevation receptive fuels. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey... Elevated highlights were added across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey where strong offshore flow within a post-frontal regime is ongoing. Northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph combined with relative humidity falling into the 25-35 percent range are expected through the early afternoon before winds subside late afternoon. Rainfall over the last 48 hours was spotty so pockets of receptive fuels remain, primarily in the New Jersey Pinelands. ...Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Significant fire weather threat remains across the Southwest with swath of Extremely Critical highlights in place across much of southern and central New Mexico. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Utah and far western Colorado to account for some lower elevation receptive fuels. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey... Elevated highlights were added across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey where strong offshore flow within a post-frontal regime is ongoing. Northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph combined with relative humidity falling into the 25-35 percent range are expected through the early afternoon before winds subside late afternoon. Rainfall over the last 48 hours was spotty so pockets of receptive fuels remain, primarily in the New Jersey Pinelands. ...Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Significant fire weather threat remains across the Southwest with swath of Extremely Critical highlights in place across much of southern and central New Mexico. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Utah and far western Colorado to account for some lower elevation receptive fuels. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey... Elevated highlights were added across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey where strong offshore flow within a post-frontal regime is ongoing. Northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph combined with relative humidity falling into the 25-35 percent range are expected through the early afternoon before winds subside late afternoon. Rainfall over the last 48 hours was spotty so pockets of receptive fuels remain, primarily in the New Jersey Pinelands. ...Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Significant fire weather threat remains across the Southwest with swath of Extremely Critical highlights in place across much of southern and central New Mexico. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Utah and far western Colorado to account for some lower elevation receptive fuels. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey... Elevated highlights were added across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey where strong offshore flow within a post-frontal regime is ongoing. Northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph combined with relative humidity falling into the 25-35 percent range are expected through the early afternoon before winds subside late afternoon. Rainfall over the last 48 hours was spotty so pockets of receptive fuels remain, primarily in the New Jersey Pinelands. ...Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Significant fire weather threat remains across the Southwest with swath of Extremely Critical highlights in place across much of southern and central New Mexico. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Utah and far western Colorado to account for some lower elevation receptive fuels. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey... Elevated highlights were added across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey where strong offshore flow within a post-frontal regime is ongoing. Northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph combined with relative humidity falling into the 25-35 percent range are expected through the early afternoon before winds subside late afternoon. Rainfall over the last 48 hours was spotty so pockets of receptive fuels remain, primarily in the New Jersey Pinelands. ...Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Significant fire weather threat remains across the Southwest with swath of Extremely Critical highlights in place across much of southern and central New Mexico. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Utah and far western Colorado to account for some lower elevation receptive fuels. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey... Elevated highlights were added across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey where strong offshore flow within a post-frontal regime is ongoing. Northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph combined with relative humidity falling into the 25-35 percent range are expected through the early afternoon before winds subside late afternoon. Rainfall over the last 48 hours was spotty so pockets of receptive fuels remain, primarily in the New Jersey Pinelands. ...Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Significant fire weather threat remains across the Southwest with swath of Extremely Critical highlights in place across much of southern and central New Mexico. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Utah and far western Colorado to account for some lower elevation receptive fuels. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more