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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no appreciable changes required. Signs of broad-scale ascent beginning to overspread the High Plains west of the surface trough/dryline are evident in latest GOES imagery. Shallow cumulus is beginning to develop from western NE southward into west TX, which suggests that convective initiation within this corridor should become more probable within the next few hours as we approach peak diurnal heating and dryline circulations are maximized. West Texas Mesonet observations are sampling higher dewpoints (by about 2-3 F) and stronger surface convergence than anticipated by most model solutions. This suggests that the probability of realizing the potent convective environment may be increasing across the TX Panhandle (though confidence in storm coverage remains too limited to warrant any upgrades). Further north, recent RAP analyses show the tightest low-level lapse rate gradient across western KS, indicative of a tighter/stronger dryline circulation. This trend supports some recent high-res guidance that shows convective initiation between 21-00z across this region and warrants maintaining the current risk probabilities. Similarly, steady surface pressure falls across western NE/SD suggest that ascent is strongest across the central High Plains region, which should favor at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no appreciable changes required. Signs of broad-scale ascent beginning to overspread the High Plains west of the surface trough/dryline are evident in latest GOES imagery. Shallow cumulus is beginning to develop from western NE southward into west TX, which suggests that convective initiation within this corridor should become more probable within the next few hours as we approach peak diurnal heating and dryline circulations are maximized. West Texas Mesonet observations are sampling higher dewpoints (by about 2-3 F) and stronger surface convergence than anticipated by most model solutions. This suggests that the probability of realizing the potent convective environment may be increasing across the TX Panhandle (though confidence in storm coverage remains too limited to warrant any upgrades). Further north, recent RAP analyses show the tightest low-level lapse rate gradient across western KS, indicative of a tighter/stronger dryline circulation. This trend supports some recent high-res guidance that shows convective initiation between 21-00z across this region and warrants maintaining the current risk probabilities. Similarly, steady surface pressure falls across western NE/SD suggest that ascent is strongest across the central High Plains region, which should favor at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no appreciable changes required. Signs of broad-scale ascent beginning to overspread the High Plains west of the surface trough/dryline are evident in latest GOES imagery. Shallow cumulus is beginning to develop from western NE southward into west TX, which suggests that convective initiation within this corridor should become more probable within the next few hours as we approach peak diurnal heating and dryline circulations are maximized. West Texas Mesonet observations are sampling higher dewpoints (by about 2-3 F) and stronger surface convergence than anticipated by most model solutions. This suggests that the probability of realizing the potent convective environment may be increasing across the TX Panhandle (though confidence in storm coverage remains too limited to warrant any upgrades). Further north, recent RAP analyses show the tightest low-level lapse rate gradient across western KS, indicative of a tighter/stronger dryline circulation. This trend supports some recent high-res guidance that shows convective initiation between 21-00z across this region and warrants maintaining the current risk probabilities. Similarly, steady surface pressure falls across western NE/SD suggest that ascent is strongest across the central High Plains region, which should favor at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no appreciable changes required. Signs of broad-scale ascent beginning to overspread the High Plains west of the surface trough/dryline are evident in latest GOES imagery. Shallow cumulus is beginning to develop from western NE southward into west TX, which suggests that convective initiation within this corridor should become more probable within the next few hours as we approach peak diurnal heating and dryline circulations are maximized. West Texas Mesonet observations are sampling higher dewpoints (by about 2-3 F) and stronger surface convergence than anticipated by most model solutions. This suggests that the probability of realizing the potent convective environment may be increasing across the TX Panhandle (though confidence in storm coverage remains too limited to warrant any upgrades). Further north, recent RAP analyses show the tightest low-level lapse rate gradient across western KS, indicative of a tighter/stronger dryline circulation. This trend supports some recent high-res guidance that shows convective initiation between 21-00z across this region and warrants maintaining the current risk probabilities. Similarly, steady surface pressure falls across western NE/SD suggest that ascent is strongest across the central High Plains region, which should favor at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no appreciable changes required. Signs of broad-scale ascent beginning to overspread the High Plains west of the surface trough/dryline are evident in latest GOES imagery. Shallow cumulus is beginning to develop from western NE southward into west TX, which suggests that convective initiation within this corridor should become more probable within the next few hours as we approach peak diurnal heating and dryline circulations are maximized. West Texas Mesonet observations are sampling higher dewpoints (by about 2-3 F) and stronger surface convergence than anticipated by most model solutions. This suggests that the probability of realizing the potent convective environment may be increasing across the TX Panhandle (though confidence in storm coverage remains too limited to warrant any upgrades). Further north, recent RAP analyses show the tightest low-level lapse rate gradient across western KS, indicative of a tighter/stronger dryline circulation. This trend supports some recent high-res guidance that shows convective initiation between 21-00z across this region and warrants maintaining the current risk probabilities. Similarly, steady surface pressure falls across western NE/SD suggest that ascent is strongest across the central High Plains region, which should favor at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no appreciable changes required. Signs of broad-scale ascent beginning to overspread the High Plains west of the surface trough/dryline are evident in latest GOES imagery. Shallow cumulus is beginning to develop from western NE southward into west TX, which suggests that convective initiation within this corridor should become more probable within the next few hours as we approach peak diurnal heating and dryline circulations are maximized. West Texas Mesonet observations are sampling higher dewpoints (by about 2-3 F) and stronger surface convergence than anticipated by most model solutions. This suggests that the probability of realizing the potent convective environment may be increasing across the TX Panhandle (though confidence in storm coverage remains too limited to warrant any upgrades). Further north, recent RAP analyses show the tightest low-level lapse rate gradient across western KS, indicative of a tighter/stronger dryline circulation. This trend supports some recent high-res guidance that shows convective initiation between 21-00z across this region and warrants maintaining the current risk probabilities. Similarly, steady surface pressure falls across western NE/SD suggest that ascent is strongest across the central High Plains region, which should favor at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no appreciable changes required. Signs of broad-scale ascent beginning to overspread the High Plains west of the surface trough/dryline are evident in latest GOES imagery. Shallow cumulus is beginning to develop from western NE southward into west TX, which suggests that convective initiation within this corridor should become more probable within the next few hours as we approach peak diurnal heating and dryline circulations are maximized. West Texas Mesonet observations are sampling higher dewpoints (by about 2-3 F) and stronger surface convergence than anticipated by most model solutions. This suggests that the probability of realizing the potent convective environment may be increasing across the TX Panhandle (though confidence in storm coverage remains too limited to warrant any upgrades). Further north, recent RAP analyses show the tightest low-level lapse rate gradient across western KS, indicative of a tighter/stronger dryline circulation. This trend supports some recent high-res guidance that shows convective initiation between 21-00z across this region and warrants maintaining the current risk probabilities. Similarly, steady surface pressure falls across western NE/SD suggest that ascent is strongest across the central High Plains region, which should favor at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southern New Mexico into far west Texas... A lingering mid-level jet atop a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer will result in west-southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph in addition to single digit relative humidity across southern New Mexico into far western Texas Monday afternoon. These conditions amid ERC values at or exceeding the 97th percentile supports the addition of Critical highlights. ...Southeastern Colorado... Enhanced downslope winds and drying will support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across southeastern Colorado through early afternoon where the fuels seasonal green-up has been delayed. Expect west-southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph and localized single digit relative humidity through early afternoon before a dry cold front arrives overnight. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southern New Mexico into far west Texas... A lingering mid-level jet atop a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer will result in west-southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph in addition to single digit relative humidity across southern New Mexico into far western Texas Monday afternoon. These conditions amid ERC values at or exceeding the 97th percentile supports the addition of Critical highlights. ...Southeastern Colorado... Enhanced downslope winds and drying will support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across southeastern Colorado through early afternoon where the fuels seasonal green-up has been delayed. Expect west-southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph and localized single digit relative humidity through early afternoon before a dry cold front arrives overnight. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southern New Mexico into far west Texas... A lingering mid-level jet atop a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer will result in west-southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph in addition to single digit relative humidity across southern New Mexico into far western Texas Monday afternoon. These conditions amid ERC values at or exceeding the 97th percentile supports the addition of Critical highlights. ...Southeastern Colorado... Enhanced downslope winds and drying will support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across southeastern Colorado through early afternoon where the fuels seasonal green-up has been delayed. Expect west-southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph and localized single digit relative humidity through early afternoon before a dry cold front arrives overnight. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southern New Mexico into far west Texas... A lingering mid-level jet atop a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer will result in west-southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph in addition to single digit relative humidity across southern New Mexico into far western Texas Monday afternoon. These conditions amid ERC values at or exceeding the 97th percentile supports the addition of Critical highlights. ...Southeastern Colorado... Enhanced downslope winds and drying will support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across southeastern Colorado through early afternoon where the fuels seasonal green-up has been delayed. Expect west-southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph and localized single digit relative humidity through early afternoon before a dry cold front arrives overnight. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southern New Mexico into far west Texas... A lingering mid-level jet atop a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer will result in west-southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph in addition to single digit relative humidity across southern New Mexico into far western Texas Monday afternoon. These conditions amid ERC values at or exceeding the 97th percentile supports the addition of Critical highlights. ...Southeastern Colorado... Enhanced downslope winds and drying will support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across southeastern Colorado through early afternoon where the fuels seasonal green-up has been delayed. Expect west-southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph and localized single digit relative humidity through early afternoon before a dry cold front arrives overnight. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southern New Mexico into far west Texas... A lingering mid-level jet atop a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer will result in west-southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph in addition to single digit relative humidity across southern New Mexico into far western Texas Monday afternoon. These conditions amid ERC values at or exceeding the 97th percentile supports the addition of Critical highlights. ...Southeastern Colorado... Enhanced downslope winds and drying will support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across southeastern Colorado through early afternoon where the fuels seasonal green-up has been delayed. Expect west-southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph and localized single digit relative humidity through early afternoon before a dry cold front arrives overnight. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southern New Mexico into far west Texas... A lingering mid-level jet atop a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer will result in west-southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph in addition to single digit relative humidity across southern New Mexico into far western Texas Monday afternoon. These conditions amid ERC values at or exceeding the 97th percentile supports the addition of Critical highlights. ...Southeastern Colorado... Enhanced downslope winds and drying will support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across southeastern Colorado through early afternoon where the fuels seasonal green-up has been delayed. Expect west-southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph and localized single digit relative humidity through early afternoon before a dry cold front arrives overnight. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southern New Mexico into far west Texas... A lingering mid-level jet atop a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer will result in west-southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph in addition to single digit relative humidity across southern New Mexico into far western Texas Monday afternoon. These conditions amid ERC values at or exceeding the 97th percentile supports the addition of Critical highlights. ...Southeastern Colorado... Enhanced downslope winds and drying will support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across southeastern Colorado through early afternoon where the fuels seasonal green-up has been delayed. Expect west-southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph and localized single digit relative humidity through early afternoon before a dry cold front arrives overnight. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southern New Mexico into far west Texas... A lingering mid-level jet atop a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer will result in west-southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph in addition to single digit relative humidity across southern New Mexico into far western Texas Monday afternoon. These conditions amid ERC values at or exceeding the 97th percentile supports the addition of Critical highlights. ...Southeastern Colorado... Enhanced downslope winds and drying will support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across southeastern Colorado through early afternoon where the fuels seasonal green-up has been delayed. Expect west-southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph and localized single digit relative humidity through early afternoon before a dry cold front arrives overnight. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southern New Mexico into far west Texas... A lingering mid-level jet atop a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer will result in west-southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph in addition to single digit relative humidity across southern New Mexico into far western Texas Monday afternoon. These conditions amid ERC values at or exceeding the 97th percentile supports the addition of Critical highlights. ...Southeastern Colorado... Enhanced downslope winds and drying will support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across southeastern Colorado through early afternoon where the fuels seasonal green-up has been delayed. Expect west-southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph and localized single digit relative humidity through early afternoon before a dry cold front arrives overnight. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southern New Mexico into far west Texas... A lingering mid-level jet atop a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer will result in west-southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph in addition to single digit relative humidity across southern New Mexico into far western Texas Monday afternoon. These conditions amid ERC values at or exceeding the 97th percentile supports the addition of Critical highlights. ...Southeastern Colorado... Enhanced downslope winds and drying will support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across southeastern Colorado through early afternoon where the fuels seasonal green-up has been delayed. Expect west-southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph and localized single digit relative humidity through early afternoon before a dry cold front arrives overnight. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southern New Mexico into far west Texas... A lingering mid-level jet atop a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer will result in west-southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph in addition to single digit relative humidity across southern New Mexico into far western Texas Monday afternoon. These conditions amid ERC values at or exceeding the 97th percentile supports the addition of Critical highlights. ...Southeastern Colorado... Enhanced downslope winds and drying will support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across southeastern Colorado through early afternoon where the fuels seasonal green-up has been delayed. Expect west-southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph and localized single digit relative humidity through early afternoon before a dry cold front arrives overnight. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southern New Mexico into far west Texas... A lingering mid-level jet atop a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer will result in west-southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph in addition to single digit relative humidity across southern New Mexico into far western Texas Monday afternoon. These conditions amid ERC values at or exceeding the 97th percentile supports the addition of Critical highlights. ...Southeastern Colorado... Enhanced downslope winds and drying will support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across southeastern Colorado through early afternoon where the fuels seasonal green-up has been delayed. Expect west-southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph and localized single digit relative humidity through early afternoon before a dry cold front arrives overnight. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more