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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey... Elevated highlights were added across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey where strong offshore flow within a post-frontal regime is ongoing. Northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph combined with relative humidity falling into the 25-35 percent range are expected through the early afternoon before winds subside late afternoon. Rainfall over the last 48 hours was spotty so pockets of receptive fuels remain, primarily in the New Jersey Pinelands. ...Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Significant fire weather threat remains across the Southwest with swath of Extremely Critical highlights in place across much of southern and central New Mexico. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Utah and far western Colorado to account for some lower elevation receptive fuels. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey... Elevated highlights were added across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey where strong offshore flow within a post-frontal regime is ongoing. Northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph combined with relative humidity falling into the 25-35 percent range are expected through the early afternoon before winds subside late afternoon. Rainfall over the last 48 hours was spotty so pockets of receptive fuels remain, primarily in the New Jersey Pinelands. ...Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Significant fire weather threat remains across the Southwest with swath of Extremely Critical highlights in place across much of southern and central New Mexico. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Utah and far western Colorado to account for some lower elevation receptive fuels. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows modest upper ridging between a pair of well-defined cyclones, one centered over NV and the other centered over northern NY/VT. The NV cyclone forecast to shift slightly eastward throughout the day as a shortwave trough, and associated jet streak, rotate through its base. Moderate to strong southwesterly flow associated with this shortwave will spread northeastward from the Southwest into central Plains and Mid MO Valley. Recent surface analysis reveals an expansive area of high pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes covering much of the eastern CONUS. A broad area of low pressure exists over the intermountain West, with several embedded lows. A tight surface pressure gradient exists between these two features across the Plains, and the resultant moderate low-level flow will contribute to northward moisture advection throughout the period. Any large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave progressing around the NV cyclone will remain west of this better low-level moisture (and associated buoyancy) until later tonight, when it reaches the northern High Plains. Ample buoyancy and moisture will exist across the central and southern High Plains, but the lack of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent will result in a more conditional severe thunderstorm potential. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A deepening lee trough is forecast to result in surface cyclogenesis in the far eastern MT/WY border vicinity by late this afternoon. Strong boundary-layer mixing is anticipated across the region, promoting airmass destabilization but also likely keeping dewpoints in the 40s across much of the region. Convergence along several boundaries across the region, including a surface trough extending across southeast MT and the lee trough along the eastern WY border vicinity, amid this destabilized airmass will result in thunderstorm development, particularly during the late afternoon/early evening as increasing large-scale ascent complements the low-level convergence. An eastward storm motion should take any storms that develop in better low-level moisture over time, with a strengthening low-level jet helping to maintain favorably moist low-level inflow. Even with this modest improvement in thermodynamics, nocturnal stabilization should result in storms becoming more elevated over time. Primary threat across this region are large hail and damaging gusts. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Mid 60s dewpoints are already in place across the Permian Basin and the general expectation is for low-level moisture to increase throughout the day. 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across all but far western KS by 21Z and into much of central NE by 00Z. Strong heating is anticipated across this region as well, resulting in an area of moderate to strong buoyancy from southwest NE into west TX by the late afternoon. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low and convection-allowing guidance has limited utility. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level coverage will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms today. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. Strong downdrafts are possible as well. A westward shift of the dryline and strengthening low-level jet will support an increase tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). The kinematic environment improves notably across the TX Panhandle, western KS, and western NE between 00Z and 06Z, so any storms that are ongoing may be able to organize considerably before eventually weakening due to nocturnal stabilization. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows modest upper ridging between a pair of well-defined cyclones, one centered over NV and the other centered over northern NY/VT. The NV cyclone forecast to shift slightly eastward throughout the day as a shortwave trough, and associated jet streak, rotate through its base. Moderate to strong southwesterly flow associated with this shortwave will spread northeastward from the Southwest into central Plains and Mid MO Valley. Recent surface analysis reveals an expansive area of high pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes covering much of the eastern CONUS. A broad area of low pressure exists over the intermountain West, with several embedded lows. A tight surface pressure gradient exists between these two features across the Plains, and the resultant moderate low-level flow will contribute to northward moisture advection throughout the period. Any large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave progressing around the NV cyclone will remain west of this better low-level moisture (and associated buoyancy) until later tonight, when it reaches the northern High Plains. Ample buoyancy and moisture will exist across the central and southern High Plains, but the lack of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent will result in a more conditional severe thunderstorm potential. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A deepening lee trough is forecast to result in surface cyclogenesis in the far eastern MT/WY border vicinity by late this afternoon. Strong boundary-layer mixing is anticipated across the region, promoting airmass destabilization but also likely keeping dewpoints in the 40s across much of the region. Convergence along several boundaries across the region, including a surface trough extending across southeast MT and the lee trough along the eastern WY border vicinity, amid this destabilized airmass will result in thunderstorm development, particularly during the late afternoon/early evening as increasing large-scale ascent complements the low-level convergence. An eastward storm motion should take any storms that develop in better low-level moisture over time, with a strengthening low-level jet helping to maintain favorably moist low-level inflow. Even with this modest improvement in thermodynamics, nocturnal stabilization should result in storms becoming more elevated over time. Primary threat across this region are large hail and damaging gusts. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Mid 60s dewpoints are already in place across the Permian Basin and the general expectation is for low-level moisture to increase throughout the day. 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across all but far western KS by 21Z and into much of central NE by 00Z. Strong heating is anticipated across this region as well, resulting in an area of moderate to strong buoyancy from southwest NE into west TX by the late afternoon. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low and convection-allowing guidance has limited utility. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level coverage will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms today. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. Strong downdrafts are possible as well. A westward shift of the dryline and strengthening low-level jet will support an increase tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). The kinematic environment improves notably across the TX Panhandle, western KS, and western NE between 00Z and 06Z, so any storms that are ongoing may be able to organize considerably before eventually weakening due to nocturnal stabilization. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows modest upper ridging between a pair of well-defined cyclones, one centered over NV and the other centered over northern NY/VT. The NV cyclone forecast to shift slightly eastward throughout the day as a shortwave trough, and associated jet streak, rotate through its base. Moderate to strong southwesterly flow associated with this shortwave will spread northeastward from the Southwest into central Plains and Mid MO Valley. Recent surface analysis reveals an expansive area of high pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes covering much of the eastern CONUS. A broad area of low pressure exists over the intermountain West, with several embedded lows. A tight surface pressure gradient exists between these two features across the Plains, and the resultant moderate low-level flow will contribute to northward moisture advection throughout the period. Any large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave progressing around the NV cyclone will remain west of this better low-level moisture (and associated buoyancy) until later tonight, when it reaches the northern High Plains. Ample buoyancy and moisture will exist across the central and southern High Plains, but the lack of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent will result in a more conditional severe thunderstorm potential. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A deepening lee trough is forecast to result in surface cyclogenesis in the far eastern MT/WY border vicinity by late this afternoon. Strong boundary-layer mixing is anticipated across the region, promoting airmass destabilization but also likely keeping dewpoints in the 40s across much of the region. Convergence along several boundaries across the region, including a surface trough extending across southeast MT and the lee trough along the eastern WY border vicinity, amid this destabilized airmass will result in thunderstorm development, particularly during the late afternoon/early evening as increasing large-scale ascent complements the low-level convergence. An eastward storm motion should take any storms that develop in better low-level moisture over time, with a strengthening low-level jet helping to maintain favorably moist low-level inflow. Even with this modest improvement in thermodynamics, nocturnal stabilization should result in storms becoming more elevated over time. Primary threat across this region are large hail and damaging gusts. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Mid 60s dewpoints are already in place across the Permian Basin and the general expectation is for low-level moisture to increase throughout the day. 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across all but far western KS by 21Z and into much of central NE by 00Z. Strong heating is anticipated across this region as well, resulting in an area of moderate to strong buoyancy from southwest NE into west TX by the late afternoon. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low and convection-allowing guidance has limited utility. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level coverage will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms today. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. Strong downdrafts are possible as well. A westward shift of the dryline and strengthening low-level jet will support an increase tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). The kinematic environment improves notably across the TX Panhandle, western KS, and western NE between 00Z and 06Z, so any storms that are ongoing may be able to organize considerably before eventually weakening due to nocturnal stabilization. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows modest upper ridging between a pair of well-defined cyclones, one centered over NV and the other centered over northern NY/VT. The NV cyclone forecast to shift slightly eastward throughout the day as a shortwave trough, and associated jet streak, rotate through its base. Moderate to strong southwesterly flow associated with this shortwave will spread northeastward from the Southwest into central Plains and Mid MO Valley. Recent surface analysis reveals an expansive area of high pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes covering much of the eastern CONUS. A broad area of low pressure exists over the intermountain West, with several embedded lows. A tight surface pressure gradient exists between these two features across the Plains, and the resultant moderate low-level flow will contribute to northward moisture advection throughout the period. Any large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave progressing around the NV cyclone will remain west of this better low-level moisture (and associated buoyancy) until later tonight, when it reaches the northern High Plains. Ample buoyancy and moisture will exist across the central and southern High Plains, but the lack of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent will result in a more conditional severe thunderstorm potential. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A deepening lee trough is forecast to result in surface cyclogenesis in the far eastern MT/WY border vicinity by late this afternoon. Strong boundary-layer mixing is anticipated across the region, promoting airmass destabilization but also likely keeping dewpoints in the 40s across much of the region. Convergence along several boundaries across the region, including a surface trough extending across southeast MT and the lee trough along the eastern WY border vicinity, amid this destabilized airmass will result in thunderstorm development, particularly during the late afternoon/early evening as increasing large-scale ascent complements the low-level convergence. An eastward storm motion should take any storms that develop in better low-level moisture over time, with a strengthening low-level jet helping to maintain favorably moist low-level inflow. Even with this modest improvement in thermodynamics, nocturnal stabilization should result in storms becoming more elevated over time. Primary threat across this region are large hail and damaging gusts. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Mid 60s dewpoints are already in place across the Permian Basin and the general expectation is for low-level moisture to increase throughout the day. 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across all but far western KS by 21Z and into much of central NE by 00Z. Strong heating is anticipated across this region as well, resulting in an area of moderate to strong buoyancy from southwest NE into west TX by the late afternoon. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low and convection-allowing guidance has limited utility. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level coverage will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms today. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. Strong downdrafts are possible as well. A westward shift of the dryline and strengthening low-level jet will support an increase tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). The kinematic environment improves notably across the TX Panhandle, western KS, and western NE between 00Z and 06Z, so any storms that are ongoing may be able to organize considerably before eventually weakening due to nocturnal stabilization. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ..Halbert.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ..Halbert.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ..Halbert.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ..Halbert.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ..Halbert.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more