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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southern New Mexico into far west Texas... A lingering mid-level jet atop a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer will result in west-southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph in addition to single digit relative humidity across southern New Mexico into far western Texas Monday afternoon. These conditions amid ERC values at or exceeding the 97th percentile supports the addition of Critical highlights. ...Southeastern Colorado... Enhanced downslope winds and drying will support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across southeastern Colorado through early afternoon where the fuels seasonal green-up has been delayed. Expect west-southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph and localized single digit relative humidity through early afternoon before a dry cold front arrives overnight. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southern New Mexico into far west Texas... A lingering mid-level jet atop a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer will result in west-southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph in addition to single digit relative humidity across southern New Mexico into far western Texas Monday afternoon. These conditions amid ERC values at or exceeding the 97th percentile supports the addition of Critical highlights. ...Southeastern Colorado... Enhanced downslope winds and drying will support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across southeastern Colorado through early afternoon where the fuels seasonal green-up has been delayed. Expect west-southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph and localized single digit relative humidity through early afternoon before a dry cold front arrives overnight. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southern New Mexico into far west Texas... A lingering mid-level jet atop a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer will result in west-southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph in addition to single digit relative humidity across southern New Mexico into far western Texas Monday afternoon. These conditions amid ERC values at or exceeding the 97th percentile supports the addition of Critical highlights. ...Southeastern Colorado... Enhanced downslope winds and drying will support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across southeastern Colorado through early afternoon where the fuels seasonal green-up has been delayed. Expect west-southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph and localized single digit relative humidity through early afternoon before a dry cold front arrives overnight. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 27 19:46:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OH TO WESTERN PA/NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Lower Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible southwestward into the southern Great Plains. Isolated significant-severe potential, mainly from hail, is apparent across west Texas and separately in parts of the eastern Midwest to Lower Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough should move east across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada. A southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico should drift east. Primary surface cyclone over northeast ON should quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the central to Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...Eastern Midwest/Lower Great Lakes... The eastern extent of a pervasive EML will support potential for at least moderate buoyancy across a broadening warm-moist sector ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Rather strong mid-level westerlies should be present from the Great Lakes vicinity northward, trailing in magnitude but still moderate to strong across the OH Valley. While evolution of early-day convection from late D2 is uncertain, potential exists for pronounced boundary-layer heating amid robust low-level moistening to the northeast. With stronger mid-level height falls north of the international border, overall setup could favor discrete to semi-discrete supercells that eventually merge into clusters/short lines by evening. Confidence is sufficient in upgrading/expanding categorical risks along with adding a significant severe highlight, most likely for hail at this time. ...TX/OK... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a convectively modulated, quasi-stationary baroclinic zone. This renders enough uncertainty to mitigate a corridor of greater severe potential, but a mesoscale-driven Enhanced Risk may be needed in later outlooks. Adequate mid-level southwesterlies will persist through the period for supercells, with most guidance hinting at training convection along the west/southwest to east-northeast oriented portion of the zone near the Red River. More probable scenario for very large hail should exist to the southwest of that corridor, with a few dryline supercells favored in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OH TO WESTERN PA/NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Lower Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible southwestward into the southern Great Plains. Isolated significant-severe potential, mainly from hail, is apparent across west Texas and separately in parts of the eastern Midwest to Lower Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough should move east across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada. A southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico should drift east. Primary surface cyclone over northeast ON should quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the central to Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...Eastern Midwest/Lower Great Lakes... The eastern extent of a pervasive EML will support potential for at least moderate buoyancy across a broadening warm-moist sector ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Rather strong mid-level westerlies should be present from the Great Lakes vicinity northward, trailing in magnitude but still moderate to strong across the OH Valley. While evolution of early-day convection from late D2 is uncertain, potential exists for pronounced boundary-layer heating amid robust low-level moistening to the northeast. With stronger mid-level height falls north of the international border, overall setup could favor discrete to semi-discrete supercells that eventually merge into clusters/short lines by evening. Confidence is sufficient in upgrading/expanding categorical risks along with adding a significant severe highlight, most likely for hail at this time. ...TX/OK... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a convectively modulated, quasi-stationary baroclinic zone. This renders enough uncertainty to mitigate a corridor of greater severe potential, but a mesoscale-driven Enhanced Risk may be needed in later outlooks. Adequate mid-level southwesterlies will persist through the period for supercells, with most guidance hinting at training convection along the west/southwest to east-northeast oriented portion of the zone near the Red River. More probable scenario for very large hail should exist to the southwest of that corridor, with a few dryline supercells favored in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OH TO WESTERN PA/NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Lower Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible southwestward into the southern Great Plains. Isolated significant-severe potential, mainly from hail, is apparent across west Texas and separately in parts of the eastern Midwest to Lower Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough should move east across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada. A southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico should drift east. Primary surface cyclone over northeast ON should quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the central to Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...Eastern Midwest/Lower Great Lakes... The eastern extent of a pervasive EML will support potential for at least moderate buoyancy across a broadening warm-moist sector ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Rather strong mid-level westerlies should be present from the Great Lakes vicinity northward, trailing in magnitude but still moderate to strong across the OH Valley. While evolution of early-day convection from late D2 is uncertain, potential exists for pronounced boundary-layer heating amid robust low-level moistening to the northeast. With stronger mid-level height falls north of the international border, overall setup could favor discrete to semi-discrete supercells that eventually merge into clusters/short lines by evening. Confidence is sufficient in upgrading/expanding categorical risks along with adding a significant severe highlight, most likely for hail at this time. ...TX/OK... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a convectively modulated, quasi-stationary baroclinic zone. This renders enough uncertainty to mitigate a corridor of greater severe potential, but a mesoscale-driven Enhanced Risk may be needed in later outlooks. Adequate mid-level southwesterlies will persist through the period for supercells, with most guidance hinting at training convection along the west/southwest to east-northeast oriented portion of the zone near the Red River. More probable scenario for very large hail should exist to the southwest of that corridor, with a few dryline supercells favored in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OH TO WESTERN PA/NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Lower Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible southwestward into the southern Great Plains. Isolated significant-severe potential, mainly from hail, is apparent across west Texas and separately in parts of the eastern Midwest to Lower Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough should move east across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada. A southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico should drift east. Primary surface cyclone over northeast ON should quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the central to Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...Eastern Midwest/Lower Great Lakes... The eastern extent of a pervasive EML will support potential for at least moderate buoyancy across a broadening warm-moist sector ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Rather strong mid-level westerlies should be present from the Great Lakes vicinity northward, trailing in magnitude but still moderate to strong across the OH Valley. While evolution of early-day convection from late D2 is uncertain, potential exists for pronounced boundary-layer heating amid robust low-level moistening to the northeast. With stronger mid-level height falls north of the international border, overall setup could favor discrete to semi-discrete supercells that eventually merge into clusters/short lines by evening. Confidence is sufficient in upgrading/expanding categorical risks along with adding a significant severe highlight, most likely for hail at this time. ...TX/OK... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a convectively modulated, quasi-stationary baroclinic zone. This renders enough uncertainty to mitigate a corridor of greater severe potential, but a mesoscale-driven Enhanced Risk may be needed in later outlooks. Adequate mid-level southwesterlies will persist through the period for supercells, with most guidance hinting at training convection along the west/southwest to east-northeast oriented portion of the zone near the Red River. More probable scenario for very large hail should exist to the southwest of that corridor, with a few dryline supercells favored in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OH TO WESTERN PA/NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Lower Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible southwestward into the southern Great Plains. Isolated significant-severe potential, mainly from hail, is apparent across west Texas and separately in parts of the eastern Midwest to Lower Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough should move east across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada. A southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico should drift east. Primary surface cyclone over northeast ON should quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the central to Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...Eastern Midwest/Lower Great Lakes... The eastern extent of a pervasive EML will support potential for at least moderate buoyancy across a broadening warm-moist sector ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Rather strong mid-level westerlies should be present from the Great Lakes vicinity northward, trailing in magnitude but still moderate to strong across the OH Valley. While evolution of early-day convection from late D2 is uncertain, potential exists for pronounced boundary-layer heating amid robust low-level moistening to the northeast. With stronger mid-level height falls north of the international border, overall setup could favor discrete to semi-discrete supercells that eventually merge into clusters/short lines by evening. Confidence is sufficient in upgrading/expanding categorical risks along with adding a significant severe highlight, most likely for hail at this time. ...TX/OK... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a convectively modulated, quasi-stationary baroclinic zone. This renders enough uncertainty to mitigate a corridor of greater severe potential, but a mesoscale-driven Enhanced Risk may be needed in later outlooks. Adequate mid-level southwesterlies will persist through the period for supercells, with most guidance hinting at training convection along the west/southwest to east-northeast oriented portion of the zone near the Red River. More probable scenario for very large hail should exist to the southwest of that corridor, with a few dryline supercells favored in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OH TO WESTERN PA/NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Lower Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible southwestward into the southern Great Plains. Isolated significant-severe potential, mainly from hail, is apparent across west Texas and separately in parts of the eastern Midwest to Lower Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough should move east across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada. A southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico should drift east. Primary surface cyclone over northeast ON should quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the central to Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...Eastern Midwest/Lower Great Lakes... The eastern extent of a pervasive EML will support potential for at least moderate buoyancy across a broadening warm-moist sector ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Rather strong mid-level westerlies should be present from the Great Lakes vicinity northward, trailing in magnitude but still moderate to strong across the OH Valley. While evolution of early-day convection from late D2 is uncertain, potential exists for pronounced boundary-layer heating amid robust low-level moistening to the northeast. With stronger mid-level height falls north of the international border, overall setup could favor discrete to semi-discrete supercells that eventually merge into clusters/short lines by evening. Confidence is sufficient in upgrading/expanding categorical risks along with adding a significant severe highlight, most likely for hail at this time. ...TX/OK... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a convectively modulated, quasi-stationary baroclinic zone. This renders enough uncertainty to mitigate a corridor of greater severe potential, but a mesoscale-driven Enhanced Risk may be needed in later outlooks. Adequate mid-level southwesterlies will persist through the period for supercells, with most guidance hinting at training convection along the west/southwest to east-northeast oriented portion of the zone near the Red River. More probable scenario for very large hail should exist to the southwest of that corridor, with a few dryline supercells favored in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OH TO WESTERN PA/NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Lower Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible southwestward into the southern Great Plains. Isolated significant-severe potential, mainly from hail, is apparent across west Texas and separately in parts of the eastern Midwest to Lower Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough should move east across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada. A southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico should drift east. Primary surface cyclone over northeast ON should quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the central to Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...Eastern Midwest/Lower Great Lakes... The eastern extent of a pervasive EML will support potential for at least moderate buoyancy across a broadening warm-moist sector ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Rather strong mid-level westerlies should be present from the Great Lakes vicinity northward, trailing in magnitude but still moderate to strong across the OH Valley. While evolution of early-day convection from late D2 is uncertain, potential exists for pronounced boundary-layer heating amid robust low-level moistening to the northeast. With stronger mid-level height falls north of the international border, overall setup could favor discrete to semi-discrete supercells that eventually merge into clusters/short lines by evening. Confidence is sufficient in upgrading/expanding categorical risks along with adding a significant severe highlight, most likely for hail at this time. ...TX/OK... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a convectively modulated, quasi-stationary baroclinic zone. This renders enough uncertainty to mitigate a corridor of greater severe potential, but a mesoscale-driven Enhanced Risk may be needed in later outlooks. Adequate mid-level southwesterlies will persist through the period for supercells, with most guidance hinting at training convection along the west/southwest to east-northeast oriented portion of the zone near the Red River. More probable scenario for very large hail should exist to the southwest of that corridor, with a few dryline supercells favored in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OH TO WESTERN PA/NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Lower Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible southwestward into the southern Great Plains. Isolated significant-severe potential, mainly from hail, is apparent across west Texas and separately in parts of the eastern Midwest to Lower Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough should move east across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada. A southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico should drift east. Primary surface cyclone over northeast ON should quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the central to Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...Eastern Midwest/Lower Great Lakes... The eastern extent of a pervasive EML will support potential for at least moderate buoyancy across a broadening warm-moist sector ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Rather strong mid-level westerlies should be present from the Great Lakes vicinity northward, trailing in magnitude but still moderate to strong across the OH Valley. While evolution of early-day convection from late D2 is uncertain, potential exists for pronounced boundary-layer heating amid robust low-level moistening to the northeast. With stronger mid-level height falls north of the international border, overall setup could favor discrete to semi-discrete supercells that eventually merge into clusters/short lines by evening. Confidence is sufficient in upgrading/expanding categorical risks along with adding a significant severe highlight, most likely for hail at this time. ...TX/OK... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a convectively modulated, quasi-stationary baroclinic zone. This renders enough uncertainty to mitigate a corridor of greater severe potential, but a mesoscale-driven Enhanced Risk may be needed in later outlooks. Adequate mid-level southwesterlies will persist through the period for supercells, with most guidance hinting at training convection along the west/southwest to east-northeast oriented portion of the zone near the Red River. More probable scenario for very large hail should exist to the southwest of that corridor, with a few dryline supercells favored in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OH TO WESTERN PA/NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Lower Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible southwestward into the southern Great Plains. Isolated significant-severe potential, mainly from hail, is apparent across west Texas and separately in parts of the eastern Midwest to Lower Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough should move east across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada. A southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico should drift east. Primary surface cyclone over northeast ON should quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the central to Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...Eastern Midwest/Lower Great Lakes... The eastern extent of a pervasive EML will support potential for at least moderate buoyancy across a broadening warm-moist sector ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Rather strong mid-level westerlies should be present from the Great Lakes vicinity northward, trailing in magnitude but still moderate to strong across the OH Valley. While evolution of early-day convection from late D2 is uncertain, potential exists for pronounced boundary-layer heating amid robust low-level moistening to the northeast. With stronger mid-level height falls north of the international border, overall setup could favor discrete to semi-discrete supercells that eventually merge into clusters/short lines by evening. Confidence is sufficient in upgrading/expanding categorical risks along with adding a significant severe highlight, most likely for hail at this time. ...TX/OK... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a convectively modulated, quasi-stationary baroclinic zone. This renders enough uncertainty to mitigate a corridor of greater severe potential, but a mesoscale-driven Enhanced Risk may be needed in later outlooks. Adequate mid-level southwesterlies will persist through the period for supercells, with most guidance hinting at training convection along the west/southwest to east-northeast oriented portion of the zone near the Red River. More probable scenario for very large hail should exist to the southwest of that corridor, with a few dryline supercells favored in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OH TO WESTERN PA/NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Lower Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible southwestward into the southern Great Plains. Isolated significant-severe potential, mainly from hail, is apparent across west Texas and separately in parts of the eastern Midwest to Lower Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough should move east across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada. A southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico should drift east. Primary surface cyclone over northeast ON should quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the central to Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...Eastern Midwest/Lower Great Lakes... The eastern extent of a pervasive EML will support potential for at least moderate buoyancy across a broadening warm-moist sector ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Rather strong mid-level westerlies should be present from the Great Lakes vicinity northward, trailing in magnitude but still moderate to strong across the OH Valley. While evolution of early-day convection from late D2 is uncertain, potential exists for pronounced boundary-layer heating amid robust low-level moistening to the northeast. With stronger mid-level height falls north of the international border, overall setup could favor discrete to semi-discrete supercells that eventually merge into clusters/short lines by evening. Confidence is sufficient in upgrading/expanding categorical risks along with adding a significant severe highlight, most likely for hail at this time. ...TX/OK... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a convectively modulated, quasi-stationary baroclinic zone. This renders enough uncertainty to mitigate a corridor of greater severe potential, but a mesoscale-driven Enhanced Risk may be needed in later outlooks. Adequate mid-level southwesterlies will persist through the period for supercells, with most guidance hinting at training convection along the west/southwest to east-northeast oriented portion of the zone near the Red River. More probable scenario for very large hail should exist to the southwest of that corridor, with a few dryline supercells favored in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OH TO WESTERN PA/NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Lower Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible southwestward into the southern Great Plains. Isolated significant-severe potential, mainly from hail, is apparent across west Texas and separately in parts of the eastern Midwest to Lower Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough should move east across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada. A southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico should drift east. Primary surface cyclone over northeast ON should quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the central to Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...Eastern Midwest/Lower Great Lakes... The eastern extent of a pervasive EML will support potential for at least moderate buoyancy across a broadening warm-moist sector ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Rather strong mid-level westerlies should be present from the Great Lakes vicinity northward, trailing in magnitude but still moderate to strong across the OH Valley. While evolution of early-day convection from late D2 is uncertain, potential exists for pronounced boundary-layer heating amid robust low-level moistening to the northeast. With stronger mid-level height falls north of the international border, overall setup could favor discrete to semi-discrete supercells that eventually merge into clusters/short lines by evening. Confidence is sufficient in upgrading/expanding categorical risks along with adding a significant severe highlight, most likely for hail at this time. ...TX/OK... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a convectively modulated, quasi-stationary baroclinic zone. This renders enough uncertainty to mitigate a corridor of greater severe potential, but a mesoscale-driven Enhanced Risk may be needed in later outlooks. Adequate mid-level southwesterlies will persist through the period for supercells, with most guidance hinting at training convection along the west/southwest to east-northeast oriented portion of the zone near the Red River. More probable scenario for very large hail should exist to the southwest of that corridor, with a few dryline supercells favored in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OH TO WESTERN PA/NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Lower Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible southwestward into the southern Great Plains. Isolated significant-severe potential, mainly from hail, is apparent across west Texas and separately in parts of the eastern Midwest to Lower Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough should move east across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada. A southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico should drift east. Primary surface cyclone over northeast ON should quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the central to Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...Eastern Midwest/Lower Great Lakes... The eastern extent of a pervasive EML will support potential for at least moderate buoyancy across a broadening warm-moist sector ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Rather strong mid-level westerlies should be present from the Great Lakes vicinity northward, trailing in magnitude but still moderate to strong across the OH Valley. While evolution of early-day convection from late D2 is uncertain, potential exists for pronounced boundary-layer heating amid robust low-level moistening to the northeast. With stronger mid-level height falls north of the international border, overall setup could favor discrete to semi-discrete supercells that eventually merge into clusters/short lines by evening. Confidence is sufficient in upgrading/expanding categorical risks along with adding a significant severe highlight, most likely for hail at this time. ...TX/OK... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a convectively modulated, quasi-stationary baroclinic zone. This renders enough uncertainty to mitigate a corridor of greater severe potential, but a mesoscale-driven Enhanced Risk may be needed in later outlooks. Adequate mid-level southwesterlies will persist through the period for supercells, with most guidance hinting at training convection along the west/southwest to east-northeast oriented portion of the zone near the Red River. More probable scenario for very large hail should exist to the southwest of that corridor, with a few dryline supercells favored in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OH TO WESTERN PA/NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Lower Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible southwestward into the southern Great Plains. Isolated significant-severe potential, mainly from hail, is apparent across west Texas and separately in parts of the eastern Midwest to Lower Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough should move east across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada. A southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico should drift east. Primary surface cyclone over northeast ON should quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the central to Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...Eastern Midwest/Lower Great Lakes... The eastern extent of a pervasive EML will support potential for at least moderate buoyancy across a broadening warm-moist sector ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Rather strong mid-level westerlies should be present from the Great Lakes vicinity northward, trailing in magnitude but still moderate to strong across the OH Valley. While evolution of early-day convection from late D2 is uncertain, potential exists for pronounced boundary-layer heating amid robust low-level moistening to the northeast. With stronger mid-level height falls north of the international border, overall setup could favor discrete to semi-discrete supercells that eventually merge into clusters/short lines by evening. Confidence is sufficient in upgrading/expanding categorical risks along with adding a significant severe highlight, most likely for hail at this time. ...TX/OK... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a convectively modulated, quasi-stationary baroclinic zone. This renders enough uncertainty to mitigate a corridor of greater severe potential, but a mesoscale-driven Enhanced Risk may be needed in later outlooks. Adequate mid-level southwesterlies will persist through the period for supercells, with most guidance hinting at training convection along the west/southwest to east-northeast oriented portion of the zone near the Red River. More probable scenario for very large hail should exist to the southwest of that corridor, with a few dryline supercells favored in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OH TO WESTERN PA/NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Lower Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible southwestward into the southern Great Plains. Isolated significant-severe potential, mainly from hail, is apparent across west Texas and separately in parts of the eastern Midwest to Lower Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough should move east across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada. A southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico should drift east. Primary surface cyclone over northeast ON should quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the central to Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...Eastern Midwest/Lower Great Lakes... The eastern extent of a pervasive EML will support potential for at least moderate buoyancy across a broadening warm-moist sector ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Rather strong mid-level westerlies should be present from the Great Lakes vicinity northward, trailing in magnitude but still moderate to strong across the OH Valley. While evolution of early-day convection from late D2 is uncertain, potential exists for pronounced boundary-layer heating amid robust low-level moistening to the northeast. With stronger mid-level height falls north of the international border, overall setup could favor discrete to semi-discrete supercells that eventually merge into clusters/short lines by evening. Confidence is sufficient in upgrading/expanding categorical risks along with adding a significant severe highlight, most likely for hail at this time. ...TX/OK... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a convectively modulated, quasi-stationary baroclinic zone. This renders enough uncertainty to mitigate a corridor of greater severe potential, but a mesoscale-driven Enhanced Risk may be needed in later outlooks. Adequate mid-level southwesterlies will persist through the period for supercells, with most guidance hinting at training convection along the west/southwest to east-northeast oriented portion of the zone near the Red River. More probable scenario for very large hail should exist to the southwest of that corridor, with a few dryline supercells favored in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OH TO WESTERN PA/NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Lower Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible southwestward into the southern Great Plains. Isolated significant-severe potential, mainly from hail, is apparent across west Texas and separately in parts of the eastern Midwest to Lower Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough should move east across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada. A southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico should drift east. Primary surface cyclone over northeast ON should quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the central to Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...Eastern Midwest/Lower Great Lakes... The eastern extent of a pervasive EML will support potential for at least moderate buoyancy across a broadening warm-moist sector ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Rather strong mid-level westerlies should be present from the Great Lakes vicinity northward, trailing in magnitude but still moderate to strong across the OH Valley. While evolution of early-day convection from late D2 is uncertain, potential exists for pronounced boundary-layer heating amid robust low-level moistening to the northeast. With stronger mid-level height falls north of the international border, overall setup could favor discrete to semi-discrete supercells that eventually merge into clusters/short lines by evening. Confidence is sufficient in upgrading/expanding categorical risks along with adding a significant severe highlight, most likely for hail at this time. ...TX/OK... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a convectively modulated, quasi-stationary baroclinic zone. This renders enough uncertainty to mitigate a corridor of greater severe potential, but a mesoscale-driven Enhanced Risk may be needed in later outlooks. Adequate mid-level southwesterlies will persist through the period for supercells, with most guidance hinting at training convection along the west/southwest to east-northeast oriented portion of the zone near the Red River. More probable scenario for very large hail should exist to the southwest of that corridor, with a few dryline supercells favored in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OH TO WESTERN PA/NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Lower Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible southwestward into the southern Great Plains. Isolated significant-severe potential, mainly from hail, is apparent across west Texas and separately in parts of the eastern Midwest to Lower Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough should move east across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada. A southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico should drift east. Primary surface cyclone over northeast ON should quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the central to Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...Eastern Midwest/Lower Great Lakes... The eastern extent of a pervasive EML will support potential for at least moderate buoyancy across a broadening warm-moist sector ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Rather strong mid-level westerlies should be present from the Great Lakes vicinity northward, trailing in magnitude but still moderate to strong across the OH Valley. While evolution of early-day convection from late D2 is uncertain, potential exists for pronounced boundary-layer heating amid robust low-level moistening to the northeast. With stronger mid-level height falls north of the international border, overall setup could favor discrete to semi-discrete supercells that eventually merge into clusters/short lines by evening. Confidence is sufficient in upgrading/expanding categorical risks along with adding a significant severe highlight, most likely for hail at this time. ...TX/OK... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a convectively modulated, quasi-stationary baroclinic zone. This renders enough uncertainty to mitigate a corridor of greater severe potential, but a mesoscale-driven Enhanced Risk may be needed in later outlooks. Adequate mid-level southwesterlies will persist through the period for supercells, with most guidance hinting at training convection along the west/southwest to east-northeast oriented portion of the zone near the Red River. More probable scenario for very large hail should exist to the southwest of that corridor, with a few dryline supercells favored in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more