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WW 0179 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0179 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0575 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR 2NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0575 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Areas affected...2Nebraska Panhandle into the Sandhills and Southwest Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272029Z - 272230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered supercell potential should increase over the next 2-3 hours. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts will be possible. The tornado threat will initially be low, but will increase for storms persisting near/after sunset. Trends will be monitored for watch issuance. DISCUSSION...As the lee trough continues to deepen this afternoon, clusters of cumulus clouds have begun to develop in northeast Colorado. With time and the approach of a shortwave trough, a surface low will become more evident in eastern Colorado. Low 60s F dewpoints have already reached parts of northwest Kansas and should continue north and west as low-level winds respond to the surface cyclone. Effective shear of around 45 kts across the trough axis will promote discrete storm development. Steep mid-level lapse rates and initially long, straight hodographs will promote a risk for large/very-large hail and severe winds. As the low-level jet increases this evening, any mature supercells ongoing will have an increased potential to produce a tornado. Storm coverage is somewhat uncertain, but isolated to widely scattered supercells appear possible given at least modest mid-level ascent expected over the next few hours. ..Wendt/Smith.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41180373 41710412 42850358 42740190 42150098 41420084 40730085 40520156 40540220 40820308 41180373 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more