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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Day 2 Update... No changes needed to previous forecast (see below). A mid-level trough over the Intermountain West and afternoon destabilization will promote showers and thunderstorms over the Northern High Plains and Northern and Central Rockies Saturday. Problematic fire activity from new ignitions has been minimal even with abundant lightning over the Northern Rockies over the last several days. More concentrated convection is expected across the Colorado River Basin, bringing abundant lightning but also wetting thunderstorm cores, with additional rain mitigating fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as a preceding upper trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow (Saturday). The net result will be another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Rockies toward the Four Corners region in association to the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass with the upper trough. These storms will likely be more wet than dry, and will traverse areas that may see appreciable rainfall accumulations on Day 1, potentially dampening fuels in the process. While an instance or two of lightning-induced wildfire ignition cannot be ruled out, the coverage of such occurrences should be sparse at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Day 2 Update... No changes needed to previous forecast (see below). A mid-level trough over the Intermountain West and afternoon destabilization will promote showers and thunderstorms over the Northern High Plains and Northern and Central Rockies Saturday. Problematic fire activity from new ignitions has been minimal even with abundant lightning over the Northern Rockies over the last several days. More concentrated convection is expected across the Colorado River Basin, bringing abundant lightning but also wetting thunderstorm cores, with additional rain mitigating fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as a preceding upper trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow (Saturday). The net result will be another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Rockies toward the Four Corners region in association to the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass with the upper trough. These storms will likely be more wet than dry, and will traverse areas that may see appreciable rainfall accumulations on Day 1, potentially dampening fuels in the process. While an instance or two of lightning-induced wildfire ignition cannot be ruled out, the coverage of such occurrences should be sparse at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Day 2 Update... No changes needed to previous forecast (see below). A mid-level trough over the Intermountain West and afternoon destabilization will promote showers and thunderstorms over the Northern High Plains and Northern and Central Rockies Saturday. Problematic fire activity from new ignitions has been minimal even with abundant lightning over the Northern Rockies over the last several days. More concentrated convection is expected across the Colorado River Basin, bringing abundant lightning but also wetting thunderstorm cores, with additional rain mitigating fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as a preceding upper trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow (Saturday). The net result will be another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Rockies toward the Four Corners region in association to the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass with the upper trough. These storms will likely be more wet than dry, and will traverse areas that may see appreciable rainfall accumulations on Day 1, potentially dampening fuels in the process. While an instance or two of lightning-induced wildfire ignition cannot be ruled out, the coverage of such occurrences should be sparse at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Day 2 Update... No changes needed to previous forecast (see below). A mid-level trough over the Intermountain West and afternoon destabilization will promote showers and thunderstorms over the Northern High Plains and Northern and Central Rockies Saturday. Problematic fire activity from new ignitions has been minimal even with abundant lightning over the Northern Rockies over the last several days. More concentrated convection is expected across the Colorado River Basin, bringing abundant lightning but also wetting thunderstorm cores, with additional rain mitigating fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as a preceding upper trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow (Saturday). The net result will be another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Rockies toward the Four Corners region in association to the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass with the upper trough. These storms will likely be more wet than dry, and will traverse areas that may see appreciable rainfall accumulations on Day 1, potentially dampening fuels in the process. While an instance or two of lightning-induced wildfire ignition cannot be ruled out, the coverage of such occurrences should be sparse at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 17:53:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 15:22:04 GMT

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 17:53:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 15:22:04 GMT

Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 121753 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 1200 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 102.8W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Mario. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 102.8 West. Mario is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through this evening. A slower motion toward the west-northwest is forecast tonight through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Mario should move roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through tonight, and then begin to move farther away from the coast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Mario is a tiny tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Mario will lead to rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts of 6 inches, across southern Mexico through Sunday. This brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Mario, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast of Michoacan today. Gusty winds are possible elsewhere along coastal portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN... As of 12:00 PM CST Fri Sep 12 the center of Mario was located near 17.4, -102.8 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121732
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 12 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Mario, located just offshore of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Mario are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. Forecast/Advisories on Mario are
issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Bucci