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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Sep 2025 02:35:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Sep 2025 02:35:17 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130233 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 900 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 The low-level center of Mario was apparent this afternoon near the convective mass just off of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Since that time, satellite imagery shows that a large low-pressure area is developing to the south of Mario, with vorticity centers noted near 17N 106W and 15N 103W. This is causing the small circulation of Mario to lose its identity as it seems to be becoming a part of the larger circulation. In addition, the convection near the center has decreased during the past several hours, and there has been a corresponding decrease in satellite intensity estimates. Based on these developments, Mario is downgraded to a tropical depression with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The dynamical models show several possible scenarios for the evolution of Mario during the next few days. The ECMWF and Canadian models show the system dissipating as it becomes absorbed into the larger low during the next day or two. The UKMET does not absorb Mario into the low, but shows it degenerating into a trough and moving northwestward and then westward around the north side of the low. The GFS, in contrast, uses the Mario circulation to become the center of the larger low, although it keeps the winds below 35 kt through the forecast period. The regional hurricane models show the possibility of a tropical storm re-forming near or west of Socorro Island in a few days, although it is unclear whether this development is related to the current Mario circulation. Given these scenarios, the current trends, and the previous forecast, the new intensity forecast calls for Mario to continue as a depression for 36 h before dissipating inside the larger low. However, an alternative scenario is that the circulation could degenerate to a trough at any time. The initial motion is 290/13. If Mario manages to maintain its identity, it should turn more westward during the next 36 h as it moves around the north side of the larger low. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Mario will impact Jalisco and nearby areas into Saturday morning, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. 2. While all coastal watches have been discontinued for Mexico, gusty winds are possible elsewhere along the coasts of western Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through tonight. Interests in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Mario. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 18.1N 104.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 18.8N 106.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 19.2N 108.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 19.7N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 13 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 130233 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0300 UTC SAT SEP 13 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 130233 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Mario Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 900 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 ...MARIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT STARTS MOVING AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 104.6W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of Mario. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mario was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 104.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next several hours. A slower motion toward the west-northwest is forecast later tonight through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Mario should gradually move away from the coast of Mexico tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Saturday night, and Mario is forecast to dissipate on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Mario will lead to additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches for Jalisco, with storm total amounts up to 6 inches locally through Saturday morning. This brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Mario, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Gusty winds are possible along coastal portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...MARIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT STARTS MOVING AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM CST Fri Sep 12 the center of Mario was located near 18.1, -104.6 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 13 2025 191 WTPZ23 KNHC 130232 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0300 UTC SAT SEP 13 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 104.6W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 104.6W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.8N 106.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.2N 108.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.7N 109.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 104.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

MD 2068 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2068 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0601 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Areas affected...northeast Wyoming into western South Dakota and southwest North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 122301Z - 130130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage this evening, with strong wind gusts in addition to sporadic large hail. Trends are being monitored for watch potential. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered cells, some with hail, persist this evening over parts of MT, WY, and the Dakotas, where peak heating has led to an uncapped air mass and moderate instability. Thus far, clusters of cells have been slow moving. However, a gradual uptick in coverage has been noted recently over northeast WY, western SD and now into south-central ND. Also of note is an apparent outflow surge associated with a larger area of convection over east-central WY. Indications are that new cell development may keep developing along the leading edge of the outflow/baroclinic zone as it pushes northeastward across northeast WY, southeast MT, and the western Dakota through the evening. Such a propagating storm regime could result in an increased wind risk, specially as the activity interacts with an increasingly moist/unstable air mass to the northeast. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 44160672 45880482 46250406 46920201 46920104 46770055 46520033 46200042 45740103 44020176 43480215 43140289 43010407 43170493 43670641 44160672 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN SD AND FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ND... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and isolated severe gusts remain possible tonight across parts of the northern Great Plains and Black Hills. ...Northern Great Plains... Despite limited severe hail reports thus far, a few supercells along the south-central ND/north-central border area had impressively large MRMS MESH signatures. These supercells have remained anchored along a southwest/northeast-oriented surface trough amid weak low-level winds but around 40-kt effective bulk shear. This nearly straight-line hodograph structure conducive for splitting supercells, coincident with MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg per the 00Z BIS sounding, should support large hail potential over the next couple hours. An arc of convective outflow spreading north to east across northeast WY to far southwest SD will eventually impinge on the MLCAPE gradient that runs southwest to northeast across western SD. Cells along the outflow should intensify as they spread northeast of the Black Hills and north of the Badlands later this evening. 15Z and later CAMs indicate potential for a few sporadic supercells, which would yield a large hail threat. Severe gusts are also possible, but these may remain localized and transient given the modest motion of the outflow and supercell wind profile. ...Southeast AZ/Southwest NM... Earlier severe wind/hail storms across southeast AZ should diminish over the next hour or two as they attempt to spread into southwest NM where prior overturning has occurred. A cooler downstream boundary layer and weaker tropospheric lapse rates will further marginalize storm intensity after dusk. ..Grams.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN SD AND FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ND... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and isolated severe gusts remain possible tonight across parts of the northern Great Plains and Black Hills. ...Northern Great Plains... Despite limited severe hail reports thus far, a few supercells along the south-central ND/north-central border area had impressively large MRMS MESH signatures. These supercells have remained anchored along a southwest/northeast-oriented surface trough amid weak low-level winds but around 40-kt effective bulk shear. This nearly straight-line hodograph structure conducive for splitting supercells, coincident with MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg per the 00Z BIS sounding, should support large hail potential over the next couple hours. An arc of convective outflow spreading north to east across northeast WY to far southwest SD will eventually impinge on the MLCAPE gradient that runs southwest to northeast across western SD. Cells along the outflow should intensify as they spread northeast of the Black Hills and north of the Badlands later this evening. 15Z and later CAMs indicate potential for a few sporadic supercells, which would yield a large hail threat. Severe gusts are also possible, but these may remain localized and transient given the modest motion of the outflow and supercell wind profile. ...Southeast AZ/Southwest NM... Earlier severe wind/hail storms across southeast AZ should diminish over the next hour or two as they attempt to spread into southwest NM where prior overturning has occurred. A cooler downstream boundary layer and weaker tropospheric lapse rates will further marginalize storm intensity after dusk. ..Grams.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN SD AND FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ND... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and isolated severe gusts remain possible tonight across parts of the northern Great Plains and Black Hills. ...Northern Great Plains... Despite limited severe hail reports thus far, a few supercells along the south-central ND/north-central border area had impressively large MRMS MESH signatures. These supercells have remained anchored along a southwest/northeast-oriented surface trough amid weak low-level winds but around 40-kt effective bulk shear. This nearly straight-line hodograph structure conducive for splitting supercells, coincident with MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg per the 00Z BIS sounding, should support large hail potential over the next couple hours. An arc of convective outflow spreading north to east across northeast WY to far southwest SD will eventually impinge on the MLCAPE gradient that runs southwest to northeast across western SD. Cells along the outflow should intensify as they spread northeast of the Black Hills and north of the Badlands later this evening. 15Z and later CAMs indicate potential for a few sporadic supercells, which would yield a large hail threat. Severe gusts are also possible, but these may remain localized and transient given the modest motion of the outflow and supercell wind profile. ...Southeast AZ/Southwest NM... Earlier severe wind/hail storms across southeast AZ should diminish over the next hour or two as they attempt to spread into southwest NM where prior overturning has occurred. A cooler downstream boundary layer and weaker tropospheric lapse rates will further marginalize storm intensity after dusk. ..Grams.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN SD AND FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ND... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and isolated severe gusts remain possible tonight across parts of the northern Great Plains and Black Hills. ...Northern Great Plains... Despite limited severe hail reports thus far, a few supercells along the south-central ND/north-central border area had impressively large MRMS MESH signatures. These supercells have remained anchored along a southwest/northeast-oriented surface trough amid weak low-level winds but around 40-kt effective bulk shear. This nearly straight-line hodograph structure conducive for splitting supercells, coincident with MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg per the 00Z BIS sounding, should support large hail potential over the next couple hours. An arc of convective outflow spreading north to east across northeast WY to far southwest SD will eventually impinge on the MLCAPE gradient that runs southwest to northeast across western SD. Cells along the outflow should intensify as they spread northeast of the Black Hills and north of the Badlands later this evening. 15Z and later CAMs indicate potential for a few sporadic supercells, which would yield a large hail threat. Severe gusts are also possible, but these may remain localized and transient given the modest motion of the outflow and supercell wind profile. ...Southeast AZ/Southwest NM... Earlier severe wind/hail storms across southeast AZ should diminish over the next hour or two as they attempt to spread into southwest NM where prior overturning has occurred. A cooler downstream boundary layer and weaker tropospheric lapse rates will further marginalize storm intensity after dusk. ..Grams.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN SD AND FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ND... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and isolated severe gusts remain possible tonight across parts of the northern Great Plains and Black Hills. ...Northern Great Plains... Despite limited severe hail reports thus far, a few supercells along the south-central ND/north-central border area had impressively large MRMS MESH signatures. These supercells have remained anchored along a southwest/northeast-oriented surface trough amid weak low-level winds but around 40-kt effective bulk shear. This nearly straight-line hodograph structure conducive for splitting supercells, coincident with MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg per the 00Z BIS sounding, should support large hail potential over the next couple hours. An arc of convective outflow spreading north to east across northeast WY to far southwest SD will eventually impinge on the MLCAPE gradient that runs southwest to northeast across western SD. Cells along the outflow should intensify as they spread northeast of the Black Hills and north of the Badlands later this evening. 15Z and later CAMs indicate potential for a few sporadic supercells, which would yield a large hail threat. Severe gusts are also possible, but these may remain localized and transient given the modest motion of the outflow and supercell wind profile. ...Southeast AZ/Southwest NM... Earlier severe wind/hail storms across southeast AZ should diminish over the next hour or two as they attempt to spread into southwest NM where prior overturning has occurred. A cooler downstream boundary layer and weaker tropospheric lapse rates will further marginalize storm intensity after dusk. ..Grams.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN SD AND FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ND... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and isolated severe gusts remain possible tonight across parts of the northern Great Plains and Black Hills. ...Northern Great Plains... Despite limited severe hail reports thus far, a few supercells along the south-central ND/north-central border area had impressively large MRMS MESH signatures. These supercells have remained anchored along a southwest/northeast-oriented surface trough amid weak low-level winds but around 40-kt effective bulk shear. This nearly straight-line hodograph structure conducive for splitting supercells, coincident with MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg per the 00Z BIS sounding, should support large hail potential over the next couple hours. An arc of convective outflow spreading north to east across northeast WY to far southwest SD will eventually impinge on the MLCAPE gradient that runs southwest to northeast across western SD. Cells along the outflow should intensify as they spread northeast of the Black Hills and north of the Badlands later this evening. 15Z and later CAMs indicate potential for a few sporadic supercells, which would yield a large hail threat. Severe gusts are also possible, but these may remain localized and transient given the modest motion of the outflow and supercell wind profile. ...Southeast AZ/Southwest NM... Earlier severe wind/hail storms across southeast AZ should diminish over the next hour or two as they attempt to spread into southwest NM where prior overturning has occurred. A cooler downstream boundary layer and weaker tropospheric lapse rates will further marginalize storm intensity after dusk. ..Grams.. 09/13/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 122347
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 12 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located just offshore of the coast of southwestern
Mexico.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could develop well offshore of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico early next week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
thereafter, as the low tracks westward to west-northwestward around
10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 23:37:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 21:22:11 GMT

Issued at 600 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 122331 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 600 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 ...MARIO STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 103.8W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 6 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Mario. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 103.8 West. Mario is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next several hours. A slower motion toward the west-northwest is forecast later tonight through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Mario should move roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through tonight, and then begin to move farther away from the coast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Mario is a tiny tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Mario will lead to additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts, for especially Jalisco through Saturday morning. This brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Mario, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast of Michoacan for the next few hours. Gusty winds are possible elsewhere along coastal portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...MARIO STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... As of 6:00 PM CST Fri Sep 12 the center of Mario was located near 17.8, -103.8 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 12 23:31:02 UTC 2025.