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Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 122034 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 300 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 Mario continues to parallel the coast of southwestern Mexico. An afternoon scatterometer pass showed that Mario is still located just off the coast, with deep convection periodically forming near the low-level center and being sheared off to the west. Peak wind vectors from the ASCAT pass were only 25 kt, however, the instrument is likely unable to resolve Mario's peak winds due to the small size of the storm. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, closest to the TAFB Dvorak estimate of T2.5. Numerical models are still struggling to forecast Mario due to the storm's tiny circulation and proximity to the Mexican coastline. The European global model, Google DeepMind, and their ensembles generally show the system either moving inland or opening into a trough just offshore later today. Of the systems that maintain Mario for longer into the forecast period, the intensity guidance envelope has trended downward this cycle. Moderate vertical wind shear is expected to plague the system for the next day or so, which should limit any strengthening. If Mario can survive this stage, the environmental conditions are forecast to briefly become more conducive for some gradual intensification early next week. By the end of the forecast period, cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear should quickly weaken and dissipate the small system. Based on the latest guidance, the NHC intensity forecast now shows Mario becoming a post-tropical cyclone by day 4 and dissipating by day 5. Mario continues to move west-northwestward at an estimated 12 kt, moving roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. A mid-level ridge to the north is expected to keep Mario on a west-northwestward trajectory, but at a slower forward motion, through the end of the forecast period. The models that maintain Mario's circulation are general well clustered, and only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast. Given Mario's very close proximity to the coast of Mexico, there is a Tropical Storm Watch in effect for a small segment of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Mario will impact Jalisco and nearby areas into Saturday morning, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast of Michoacan today while Mario moves roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gusty winds are possible elsewhere along the coasts of western Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through tonight. Interests in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Mario. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 17.4N 102.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 17.8N 104.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 19.0N 107.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 19.9N 110.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 20.3N 111.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 21.3N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 122033 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 2100 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 27(39) X(39) X(39) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 122033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 300 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 ...TINY TROPICAL STORM NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 102.9W ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 6 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Mario. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 102.9 West. Mario is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through this evening. A slower motion toward the west-northwest is forecast tonight through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Mario should move roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through tonight, and then begin to move farther away from the coast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Mario is a tiny tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Mario will lead to additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts, for especially Jalisco through Saturday morning. This brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Mario, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast of Michoacan today. Gusty winds are possible elsewhere along coastal portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...TINY TROPICAL STORM NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Fri Sep 12 the center of Mario was located near 17.4, -102.9 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 122032 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 2100 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 102.9W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 102.9W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 102.4W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.8N 104.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.0N 107.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.9N 110.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.3N 111.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 21.3N 114.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 102.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 13/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this afternoon across the Four Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for severe storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains. ...Four Corners vicinity into the Southwest... The Slight Risk has been expanded westward into parts of southeast/east-central UT, where favorable deep-layer shear and modest but sufficient instability remains in place this afternoon. Occasional small supercells will continue to be possible, with a threat of hail and localized strong/severe gusts. See MCD 2066 for more details. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly westward across southeast AZ, based on trends on visible satellite. The 18Z TUS depicted a favorable conditional environment for severe storms, with moderate MLCAPE and deep-layer shear. While the threat should generally remain rather isolated, a supercell or two will be possible, with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe gusts. See MCD 2065 for more information. ...Northern High Plains vicinity... Only modest adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across the northern High Plains vicinity, with no changes to the Slight Risk. An isolated threat for hail and strong/severe gusts may develop later this afternoon, with some increase in coverage of the severe threat expected into this evening. See MCD 2067 and the previous discussion below for more details. ...East-central MN into northwest WI... Much of the Marginal Risk across MN and northwest WI has been removed. An earlier cluster of storms has generally weakened this afternoon across east-central MN, though modestly steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively favorable effective shear could still support a threat for small to near-severe hail and locally gusty winds as these storms move into northwest WI. Additional elevated convection may develop later tonight across the same general region, but severe potential with the later storms appears limited at this time. ..Dean.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Four Corners Region/central Rockies... Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally, with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado through the afternoon. ...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage should steadily increase into the evening toward the western Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail potential will become more common this evening, with localized severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western and central Dakotas. ...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin... Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this afternoon across the Four Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for severe storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains. ...Four Corners vicinity into the Southwest... The Slight Risk has been expanded westward into parts of southeast/east-central UT, where favorable deep-layer shear and modest but sufficient instability remains in place this afternoon. Occasional small supercells will continue to be possible, with a threat of hail and localized strong/severe gusts. See MCD 2066 for more details. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly westward across southeast AZ, based on trends on visible satellite. The 18Z TUS depicted a favorable conditional environment for severe storms, with moderate MLCAPE and deep-layer shear. While the threat should generally remain rather isolated, a supercell or two will be possible, with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe gusts. See MCD 2065 for more information. ...Northern High Plains vicinity... Only modest adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across the northern High Plains vicinity, with no changes to the Slight Risk. An isolated threat for hail and strong/severe gusts may develop later this afternoon, with some increase in coverage of the severe threat expected into this evening. See MCD 2067 and the previous discussion below for more details. ...East-central MN into northwest WI... Much of the Marginal Risk across MN and northwest WI has been removed. An earlier cluster of storms has generally weakened this afternoon across east-central MN, though modestly steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively favorable effective shear could still support a threat for small to near-severe hail and locally gusty winds as these storms move into northwest WI. Additional elevated convection may develop later tonight across the same general region, but severe potential with the later storms appears limited at this time. ..Dean.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Four Corners Region/central Rockies... Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally, with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado through the afternoon. ...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage should steadily increase into the evening toward the western Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail potential will become more common this evening, with localized severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western and central Dakotas. ...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin... Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this afternoon across the Four Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for severe storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains. ...Four Corners vicinity into the Southwest... The Slight Risk has been expanded westward into parts of southeast/east-central UT, where favorable deep-layer shear and modest but sufficient instability remains in place this afternoon. Occasional small supercells will continue to be possible, with a threat of hail and localized strong/severe gusts. See MCD 2066 for more details. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly westward across southeast AZ, based on trends on visible satellite. The 18Z TUS depicted a favorable conditional environment for severe storms, with moderate MLCAPE and deep-layer shear. While the threat should generally remain rather isolated, a supercell or two will be possible, with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe gusts. See MCD 2065 for more information. ...Northern High Plains vicinity... Only modest adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across the northern High Plains vicinity, with no changes to the Slight Risk. An isolated threat for hail and strong/severe gusts may develop later this afternoon, with some increase in coverage of the severe threat expected into this evening. See MCD 2067 and the previous discussion below for more details. ...East-central MN into northwest WI... Much of the Marginal Risk across MN and northwest WI has been removed. An earlier cluster of storms has generally weakened this afternoon across east-central MN, though modestly steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively favorable effective shear could still support a threat for small to near-severe hail and locally gusty winds as these storms move into northwest WI. Additional elevated convection may develop later tonight across the same general region, but severe potential with the later storms appears limited at this time. ..Dean.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Four Corners Region/central Rockies... Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally, with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado through the afternoon. ...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage should steadily increase into the evening toward the western Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail potential will become more common this evening, with localized severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western and central Dakotas. ...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin... Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this afternoon across the Four Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for severe storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains. ...Four Corners vicinity into the Southwest... The Slight Risk has been expanded westward into parts of southeast/east-central UT, where favorable deep-layer shear and modest but sufficient instability remains in place this afternoon. Occasional small supercells will continue to be possible, with a threat of hail and localized strong/severe gusts. See MCD 2066 for more details. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly westward across southeast AZ, based on trends on visible satellite. The 18Z TUS depicted a favorable conditional environment for severe storms, with moderate MLCAPE and deep-layer shear. While the threat should generally remain rather isolated, a supercell or two will be possible, with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe gusts. See MCD 2065 for more information. ...Northern High Plains vicinity... Only modest adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across the northern High Plains vicinity, with no changes to the Slight Risk. An isolated threat for hail and strong/severe gusts may develop later this afternoon, with some increase in coverage of the severe threat expected into this evening. See MCD 2067 and the previous discussion below for more details. ...East-central MN into northwest WI... Much of the Marginal Risk across MN and northwest WI has been removed. An earlier cluster of storms has generally weakened this afternoon across east-central MN, though modestly steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively favorable effective shear could still support a threat for small to near-severe hail and locally gusty winds as these storms move into northwest WI. Additional elevated convection may develop later tonight across the same general region, but severe potential with the later storms appears limited at this time. ..Dean.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Four Corners Region/central Rockies... Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally, with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado through the afternoon. ...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage should steadily increase into the evening toward the western Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail potential will become more common this evening, with localized severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western and central Dakotas. ...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin... Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this afternoon across the Four Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for severe storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains. ...Four Corners vicinity into the Southwest... The Slight Risk has been expanded westward into parts of southeast/east-central UT, where favorable deep-layer shear and modest but sufficient instability remains in place this afternoon. Occasional small supercells will continue to be possible, with a threat of hail and localized strong/severe gusts. See MCD 2066 for more details. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly westward across southeast AZ, based on trends on visible satellite. The 18Z TUS depicted a favorable conditional environment for severe storms, with moderate MLCAPE and deep-layer shear. While the threat should generally remain rather isolated, a supercell or two will be possible, with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe gusts. See MCD 2065 for more information. ...Northern High Plains vicinity... Only modest adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across the northern High Plains vicinity, with no changes to the Slight Risk. An isolated threat for hail and strong/severe gusts may develop later this afternoon, with some increase in coverage of the severe threat expected into this evening. See MCD 2067 and the previous discussion below for more details. ...East-central MN into northwest WI... Much of the Marginal Risk across MN and northwest WI has been removed. An earlier cluster of storms has generally weakened this afternoon across east-central MN, though modestly steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively favorable effective shear could still support a threat for small to near-severe hail and locally gusty winds as these storms move into northwest WI. Additional elevated convection may develop later tonight across the same general region, but severe potential with the later storms appears limited at this time. ..Dean.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Four Corners Region/central Rockies... Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally, with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado through the afternoon. ...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage should steadily increase into the evening toward the western Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail potential will become more common this evening, with localized severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western and central Dakotas. ...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin... Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this afternoon across the Four Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for severe storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains. ...Four Corners vicinity into the Southwest... The Slight Risk has been expanded westward into parts of southeast/east-central UT, where favorable deep-layer shear and modest but sufficient instability remains in place this afternoon. Occasional small supercells will continue to be possible, with a threat of hail and localized strong/severe gusts. See MCD 2066 for more details. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly westward across southeast AZ, based on trends on visible satellite. The 18Z TUS depicted a favorable conditional environment for severe storms, with moderate MLCAPE and deep-layer shear. While the threat should generally remain rather isolated, a supercell or two will be possible, with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe gusts. See MCD 2065 for more information. ...Northern High Plains vicinity... Only modest adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across the northern High Plains vicinity, with no changes to the Slight Risk. An isolated threat for hail and strong/severe gusts may develop later this afternoon, with some increase in coverage of the severe threat expected into this evening. See MCD 2067 and the previous discussion below for more details. ...East-central MN into northwest WI... Much of the Marginal Risk across MN and northwest WI has been removed. An earlier cluster of storms has generally weakened this afternoon across east-central MN, though modestly steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively favorable effective shear could still support a threat for small to near-severe hail and locally gusty winds as these storms move into northwest WI. Additional elevated convection may develop later tonight across the same general region, but severe potential with the later storms appears limited at this time. ..Dean.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Four Corners Region/central Rockies... Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally, with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado through the afternoon. ...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage should steadily increase into the evening toward the western Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail potential will become more common this evening, with localized severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western and central Dakotas. ...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin... Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this afternoon across the Four Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for severe storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains. ...Four Corners vicinity into the Southwest... The Slight Risk has been expanded westward into parts of southeast/east-central UT, where favorable deep-layer shear and modest but sufficient instability remains in place this afternoon. Occasional small supercells will continue to be possible, with a threat of hail and localized strong/severe gusts. See MCD 2066 for more details. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly westward across southeast AZ, based on trends on visible satellite. The 18Z TUS depicted a favorable conditional environment for severe storms, with moderate MLCAPE and deep-layer shear. While the threat should generally remain rather isolated, a supercell or two will be possible, with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe gusts. See MCD 2065 for more information. ...Northern High Plains vicinity... Only modest adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across the northern High Plains vicinity, with no changes to the Slight Risk. An isolated threat for hail and strong/severe gusts may develop later this afternoon, with some increase in coverage of the severe threat expected into this evening. See MCD 2067 and the previous discussion below for more details. ...East-central MN into northwest WI... Much of the Marginal Risk across MN and northwest WI has been removed. An earlier cluster of storms has generally weakened this afternoon across east-central MN, though modestly steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively favorable effective shear could still support a threat for small to near-severe hail and locally gusty winds as these storms move into northwest WI. Additional elevated convection may develop later tonight across the same general region, but severe potential with the later storms appears limited at this time. ..Dean.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Four Corners Region/central Rockies... Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally, with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado through the afternoon. ...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage should steadily increase into the evening toward the western Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail potential will become more common this evening, with localized severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western and central Dakotas. ...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin... Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this afternoon across the Four Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for severe storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains. ...Four Corners vicinity into the Southwest... The Slight Risk has been expanded westward into parts of southeast/east-central UT, where favorable deep-layer shear and modest but sufficient instability remains in place this afternoon. Occasional small supercells will continue to be possible, with a threat of hail and localized strong/severe gusts. See MCD 2066 for more details. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly westward across southeast AZ, based on trends on visible satellite. The 18Z TUS depicted a favorable conditional environment for severe storms, with moderate MLCAPE and deep-layer shear. While the threat should generally remain rather isolated, a supercell or two will be possible, with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe gusts. See MCD 2065 for more information. ...Northern High Plains vicinity... Only modest adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across the northern High Plains vicinity, with no changes to the Slight Risk. An isolated threat for hail and strong/severe gusts may develop later this afternoon, with some increase in coverage of the severe threat expected into this evening. See MCD 2067 and the previous discussion below for more details. ...East-central MN into northwest WI... Much of the Marginal Risk across MN and northwest WI has been removed. An earlier cluster of storms has generally weakened this afternoon across east-central MN, though modestly steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively favorable effective shear could still support a threat for small to near-severe hail and locally gusty winds as these storms move into northwest WI. Additional elevated convection may develop later tonight across the same general region, but severe potential with the later storms appears limited at this time. ..Dean.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Four Corners Region/central Rockies... Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally, with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado through the afternoon. ...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage should steadily increase into the evening toward the western Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail potential will become more common this evening, with localized severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western and central Dakotas. ...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin... Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this afternoon across the Four Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for severe storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains. ...Four Corners vicinity into the Southwest... The Slight Risk has been expanded westward into parts of southeast/east-central UT, where favorable deep-layer shear and modest but sufficient instability remains in place this afternoon. Occasional small supercells will continue to be possible, with a threat of hail and localized strong/severe gusts. See MCD 2066 for more details. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly westward across southeast AZ, based on trends on visible satellite. The 18Z TUS depicted a favorable conditional environment for severe storms, with moderate MLCAPE and deep-layer shear. While the threat should generally remain rather isolated, a supercell or two will be possible, with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe gusts. See MCD 2065 for more information. ...Northern High Plains vicinity... Only modest adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across the northern High Plains vicinity, with no changes to the Slight Risk. An isolated threat for hail and strong/severe gusts may develop later this afternoon, with some increase in coverage of the severe threat expected into this evening. See MCD 2067 and the previous discussion below for more details. ...East-central MN into northwest WI... Much of the Marginal Risk across MN and northwest WI has been removed. An earlier cluster of storms has generally weakened this afternoon across east-central MN, though modestly steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively favorable effective shear could still support a threat for small to near-severe hail and locally gusty winds as these storms move into northwest WI. Additional elevated convection may develop later tonight across the same general region, but severe potential with the later storms appears limited at this time. ..Dean.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Four Corners Region/central Rockies... Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally, with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado through the afternoon. ...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage should steadily increase into the evening toward the western Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail potential will become more common this evening, with localized severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western and central Dakotas. ...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin... Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front. Read more

MD 2065 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 2065 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Areas affected...Southeastern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121902Z - 122130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon across the region, posing an isolated hail and damaging wind threat. DISCUSSION...In the wake of a midlevel impulse lifting off to the north, mostly clear skies have led to surface heating and destabilization across southeastern Arizona. Surface dewpoints mixing into the low 60s F are still supporting over 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Given the sufficient sufficient deep-layer shear (~30 knots), some storm organization is possible, including transient supercell structures and storm splitting, given the relatively long, straight hodographs (per 18Z Tucson sounding). The strongest storms will pose a threat of large hail and damaging winds through the afternoon. The severe threat is expected to be too isolated to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Jirak/Guyer.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 33411111 33761077 33831006 33280913 32340906 31380902 31400945 31400985 31401069 31381106 32381140 33181121 33411111 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Day 2 Update... No changes needed to previous forecast (see below). A mid-level trough over the Intermountain West and afternoon destabilization will promote showers and thunderstorms over the Northern High Plains and Northern and Central Rockies Saturday. Problematic fire activity from new ignitions has been minimal even with abundant lightning over the Northern Rockies over the last several days. More concentrated convection is expected across the Colorado River Basin, bringing abundant lightning but also wetting thunderstorm cores, with additional rain mitigating fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as a preceding upper trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow (Saturday). The net result will be another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Rockies toward the Four Corners region in association to the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass with the upper trough. These storms will likely be more wet than dry, and will traverse areas that may see appreciable rainfall accumulations on Day 1, potentially dampening fuels in the process. While an instance or two of lightning-induced wildfire ignition cannot be ruled out, the coverage of such occurrences should be sparse at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Day 2 Update... No changes needed to previous forecast (see below). A mid-level trough over the Intermountain West and afternoon destabilization will promote showers and thunderstorms over the Northern High Plains and Northern and Central Rockies Saturday. Problematic fire activity from new ignitions has been minimal even with abundant lightning over the Northern Rockies over the last several days. More concentrated convection is expected across the Colorado River Basin, bringing abundant lightning but also wetting thunderstorm cores, with additional rain mitigating fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as a preceding upper trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow (Saturday). The net result will be another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Rockies toward the Four Corners region in association to the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass with the upper trough. These storms will likely be more wet than dry, and will traverse areas that may see appreciable rainfall accumulations on Day 1, potentially dampening fuels in the process. While an instance or two of lightning-induced wildfire ignition cannot be ruled out, the coverage of such occurrences should be sparse at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Day 2 Update... No changes needed to previous forecast (see below). A mid-level trough over the Intermountain West and afternoon destabilization will promote showers and thunderstorms over the Northern High Plains and Northern and Central Rockies Saturday. Problematic fire activity from new ignitions has been minimal even with abundant lightning over the Northern Rockies over the last several days. More concentrated convection is expected across the Colorado River Basin, bringing abundant lightning but also wetting thunderstorm cores, with additional rain mitigating fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as a preceding upper trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow (Saturday). The net result will be another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Rockies toward the Four Corners region in association to the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass with the upper trough. These storms will likely be more wet than dry, and will traverse areas that may see appreciable rainfall accumulations on Day 1, potentially dampening fuels in the process. While an instance or two of lightning-induced wildfire ignition cannot be ruled out, the coverage of such occurrences should be sparse at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Day 2 Update... No changes needed to previous forecast (see below). A mid-level trough over the Intermountain West and afternoon destabilization will promote showers and thunderstorms over the Northern High Plains and Northern and Central Rockies Saturday. Problematic fire activity from new ignitions has been minimal even with abundant lightning over the Northern Rockies over the last several days. More concentrated convection is expected across the Colorado River Basin, bringing abundant lightning but also wetting thunderstorm cores, with additional rain mitigating fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as a preceding upper trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow (Saturday). The net result will be another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Rockies toward the Four Corners region in association to the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass with the upper trough. These storms will likely be more wet than dry, and will traverse areas that may see appreciable rainfall accumulations on Day 1, potentially dampening fuels in the process. While an instance or two of lightning-induced wildfire ignition cannot be ruled out, the coverage of such occurrences should be sparse at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Day 2 Update... No changes needed to previous forecast (see below). A mid-level trough over the Intermountain West and afternoon destabilization will promote showers and thunderstorms over the Northern High Plains and Northern and Central Rockies Saturday. Problematic fire activity from new ignitions has been minimal even with abundant lightning over the Northern Rockies over the last several days. More concentrated convection is expected across the Colorado River Basin, bringing abundant lightning but also wetting thunderstorm cores, with additional rain mitigating fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as a preceding upper trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow (Saturday). The net result will be another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Rockies toward the Four Corners region in association to the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass with the upper trough. These storms will likely be more wet than dry, and will traverse areas that may see appreciable rainfall accumulations on Day 1, potentially dampening fuels in the process. While an instance or two of lightning-induced wildfire ignition cannot be ruled out, the coverage of such occurrences should be sparse at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more