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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today across the Four Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for severe storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains. ...Four Corners Region/central Rockies... Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally, with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado through the afternoon. ...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage should steadily increase into the evening toward the western Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail potential will become more common this evening, with localized severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western and central Dakotas. ...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin... Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today across the Four Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for severe storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains. ...Four Corners Region/central Rockies... Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally, with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado through the afternoon. ...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage should steadily increase into the evening toward the western Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail potential will become more common this evening, with localized severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western and central Dakotas. ...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin... Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/12/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 14:46:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 15:22:04 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 14:46:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 14:46:05 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 121444 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 1500 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 34(41) X(41) X(41) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 1(22) X(22) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 121444 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 900 AM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 37-GHz AMSR2 data from 0823 UTC did an excellent job showing the well-defined center of the small tropical cyclone about 20 n mi off the coast of Guerrero, Mexico. As noted in the previous forecast, an ASCAT pass from overnight showed maximum winds just over 30 kt. The convective organization has been increasing since that time, and the depression has powered up to Tropical Storm Mario with maximum winds estimated at 35 kt. This is supported by a T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and 35-40 kt objective estimates from ADT, AiDT, and SATCON. Model guidance is having a challenging time simulating Mario's future due to the storm's small size and proximity to Mexico's coastal topography. Some models, including the ECWMF and many of the Google DeepMind ensemble members, show the system moving inland and dissipating today. Assuming Mario stays offshore, it is likely to contend with moderate shear out of the north or northeast for the next 36 hours while moving over very warm water temperatures around 30 degrees Celsius. Shear is expected to be low beyond 36 hours, and some strengthening is therefore shown in the NHC intensity forecast. Some of the hurricane models continue to show Mario reaching hurricane strength, but given the large degree of uncertainty, the NHC forecast leans much closer to the IVCN consensus at this time. Mario is expected to reach colder waters by day 5, and transition to a post-tropical cyclone is shown at that time. Mario has been moving faster toward the west-northwest (295/12 kt), moving roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. A mid-level ridge extending across northern Mexico westward over the Pacific waters is expected to keep Mario on a west-northwestward trajectory, but at a slower speed, for at least the next 4 days. The models that maintain Mario's identity agree on this scenario, and no significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast. Given Mario's very close proximity to the coast of Mexico, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a small segment of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Mario will impact southern Mexico through Sunday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast of Michoacan today while Mario moves roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gusty winds are possible elsewhere along the coasts of western Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through tonight. Interests in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Mario. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 17.2N 101.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 17.7N 103.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 18.2N 105.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 18.7N 107.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 19.1N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 19.5N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 20.1N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 21.7N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 23.5N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 121444 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 1500 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 101.9W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 101.9W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 101.3W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.7N 103.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.2N 105.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.7N 107.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.1N 108.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.5N 110.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.1N 111.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 21.7N 114.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 23.5N 117.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 101.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 12/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 121444 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 900 AM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 ...MINI MARIO FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 101.9W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Mario. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 101.9 West. Mario is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through this evening. A slower motion toward the west-northwest is forecast tonight through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Mario should move roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through tonight, and then begin to move farther away from the coast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Mario is a tiny tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Mario will lead to rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts of 6 inches, across southern Mexico through Sunday. This brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Mario, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast of Michoacan today. Gusty winds are possible elsewhere along coastal portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...MINI MARIO FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN... As of 9:00 AM CST Fri Sep 12 the center of Mario was located near 17.2, -101.9 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Kentucky farmers saw dry conditions in the spring and feared a dry year. Corn grown in LaRue County was brown, contributing to smaller kernels and ears and a poor harvest. One farmer expected to lose about $1.5 million. The soybeans, which ought to be about waist high, were only knee high. WHAS11 (Louisville, Ky.), Sep 11, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 08:37:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 09:21:26 GMT

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS...AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail are possible across the Four Corners region, and from eastern Montana into the Dakotas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will remain over the Intermountain West, making slow eastward progress through tonight. An embedded disturbance is forecast to move from CO into the Dakotas late in the day, while a midlevel jet rounds the base of the trough across AZ overnight. Gradual height falls will occur across the length of High Plains primarily overnight as the upper-level ridge to the east gradually weakens. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected across MT/WY east of a mid-level trough axis, where cool mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s will lead to MLCAPE in the 500 - locally 1000 J/kg range. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kts will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. As storms move/develop farther east across eastern MT/western ND/northwest SD towards evening, greater instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg) should result in a severe hail and wind risk with isolated stronger storms within a similarly-sheared environment. Although the low-level jet should be weaker in this area tonight, lingering instability across the western Dakotas suggests some continued severe risk, primarily for strong/damaging gusts, into the overnight hours. ...Four Corners Region... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop/intensify today from eastern AZ/southeast UT across western portions of NM/CO, within a moist plume on the eastern periphery of the mid-level trough. Cool mid-level temperatures will contribute to modest MLCAPE, with locally higher values (above 1000 J/kg) over southeastern AZ. A predominantly cellular or cluster mode is expected, with isolated stronger storms capable of marginally severe wind and hail. Storms should persist into the evening over western NM/CO, with a few stronger storms remaining possible. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS...AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail are possible across the Four Corners region, and from eastern Montana into the Dakotas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will remain over the Intermountain West, making slow eastward progress through tonight. An embedded disturbance is forecast to move from CO into the Dakotas late in the day, while a midlevel jet rounds the base of the trough across AZ overnight. Gradual height falls will occur across the length of High Plains primarily overnight as the upper-level ridge to the east gradually weakens. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected across MT/WY east of a mid-level trough axis, where cool mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s will lead to MLCAPE in the 500 - locally 1000 J/kg range. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kts will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. As storms move/develop farther east across eastern MT/western ND/northwest SD towards evening, greater instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg) should result in a severe hail and wind risk with isolated stronger storms within a similarly-sheared environment. Although the low-level jet should be weaker in this area tonight, lingering instability across the western Dakotas suggests some continued severe risk, primarily for strong/damaging gusts, into the overnight hours. ...Four Corners Region... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop/intensify today from eastern AZ/southeast UT across western portions of NM/CO, within a moist plume on the eastern periphery of the mid-level trough. Cool mid-level temperatures will contribute to modest MLCAPE, with locally higher values (above 1000 J/kg) over southeastern AZ. A predominantly cellular or cluster mode is expected, with isolated stronger storms capable of marginally severe wind and hail. Storms should persist into the evening over western NM/CO, with a few stronger storms remaining possible. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS...AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail are possible across the Four Corners region, and from eastern Montana into the Dakotas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will remain over the Intermountain West, making slow eastward progress through tonight. An embedded disturbance is forecast to move from CO into the Dakotas late in the day, while a midlevel jet rounds the base of the trough across AZ overnight. Gradual height falls will occur across the length of High Plains primarily overnight as the upper-level ridge to the east gradually weakens. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected across MT/WY east of a mid-level trough axis, where cool mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s will lead to MLCAPE in the 500 - locally 1000 J/kg range. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kts will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. As storms move/develop farther east across eastern MT/western ND/northwest SD towards evening, greater instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg) should result in a severe hail and wind risk with isolated stronger storms within a similarly-sheared environment. Although the low-level jet should be weaker in this area tonight, lingering instability across the western Dakotas suggests some continued severe risk, primarily for strong/damaging gusts, into the overnight hours. ...Four Corners Region... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop/intensify today from eastern AZ/southeast UT across western portions of NM/CO, within a moist plume on the eastern periphery of the mid-level trough. Cool mid-level temperatures will contribute to modest MLCAPE, with locally higher values (above 1000 J/kg) over southeastern AZ. A predominantly cellular or cluster mode is expected, with isolated stronger storms capable of marginally severe wind and hail. Storms should persist into the evening over western NM/CO, with a few stronger storms remaining possible. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS...AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail are possible across the Four Corners region, and from eastern Montana into the Dakotas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will remain over the Intermountain West, making slow eastward progress through tonight. An embedded disturbance is forecast to move from CO into the Dakotas late in the day, while a midlevel jet rounds the base of the trough across AZ overnight. Gradual height falls will occur across the length of High Plains primarily overnight as the upper-level ridge to the east gradually weakens. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected across MT/WY east of a mid-level trough axis, where cool mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s will lead to MLCAPE in the 500 - locally 1000 J/kg range. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kts will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. As storms move/develop farther east across eastern MT/western ND/northwest SD towards evening, greater instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg) should result in a severe hail and wind risk with isolated stronger storms within a similarly-sheared environment. Although the low-level jet should be weaker in this area tonight, lingering instability across the western Dakotas suggests some continued severe risk, primarily for strong/damaging gusts, into the overnight hours. ...Four Corners Region... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop/intensify today from eastern AZ/southeast UT across western portions of NM/CO, within a moist plume on the eastern periphery of the mid-level trough. Cool mid-level temperatures will contribute to modest MLCAPE, with locally higher values (above 1000 J/kg) over southeastern AZ. A predominantly cellular or cluster mode is expected, with isolated stronger storms capable of marginally severe wind and hail. Storms should persist into the evening over western NM/CO, with a few stronger storms remaining possible. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS...AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail are possible across the Four Corners region, and from eastern Montana into the Dakotas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will remain over the Intermountain West, making slow eastward progress through tonight. An embedded disturbance is forecast to move from CO into the Dakotas late in the day, while a midlevel jet rounds the base of the trough across AZ overnight. Gradual height falls will occur across the length of High Plains primarily overnight as the upper-level ridge to the east gradually weakens. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected across MT/WY east of a mid-level trough axis, where cool mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s will lead to MLCAPE in the 500 - locally 1000 J/kg range. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kts will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. As storms move/develop farther east across eastern MT/western ND/northwest SD towards evening, greater instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg) should result in a severe hail and wind risk with isolated stronger storms within a similarly-sheared environment. Although the low-level jet should be weaker in this area tonight, lingering instability across the western Dakotas suggests some continued severe risk, primarily for strong/damaging gusts, into the overnight hours. ...Four Corners Region... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop/intensify today from eastern AZ/southeast UT across western portions of NM/CO, within a moist plume on the eastern periphery of the mid-level trough. Cool mid-level temperatures will contribute to modest MLCAPE, with locally higher values (above 1000 J/kg) over southeastern AZ. A predominantly cellular or cluster mode is expected, with isolated stronger storms capable of marginally severe wind and hail. Storms should persist into the evening over western NM/CO, with a few stronger storms remaining possible. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS...AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail are possible across the Four Corners region, and from eastern Montana into the Dakotas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will remain over the Intermountain West, making slow eastward progress through tonight. An embedded disturbance is forecast to move from CO into the Dakotas late in the day, while a midlevel jet rounds the base of the trough across AZ overnight. Gradual height falls will occur across the length of High Plains primarily overnight as the upper-level ridge to the east gradually weakens. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected across MT/WY east of a mid-level trough axis, where cool mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s will lead to MLCAPE in the 500 - locally 1000 J/kg range. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kts will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. As storms move/develop farther east across eastern MT/western ND/northwest SD towards evening, greater instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg) should result in a severe hail and wind risk with isolated stronger storms within a similarly-sheared environment. Although the low-level jet should be weaker in this area tonight, lingering instability across the western Dakotas suggests some continued severe risk, primarily for strong/damaging gusts, into the overnight hours. ...Four Corners Region... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop/intensify today from eastern AZ/southeast UT across western portions of NM/CO, within a moist plume on the eastern periphery of the mid-level trough. Cool mid-level temperatures will contribute to modest MLCAPE, with locally higher values (above 1000 J/kg) over southeastern AZ. A predominantly cellular or cluster mode is expected, with isolated stronger storms capable of marginally severe wind and hail. Storms should persist into the evening over western NM/CO, with a few stronger storms remaining possible. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/12/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121133
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 12 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Thirteen-E, located just offshore of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 08:37:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 09:21:26 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 08:37:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 08:37:33 GMT