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Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 120836 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 300 AM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 The depression remains poorly organized tonight, with only small areas of convection bursting to the west of the estimated low-level center. Recent scatterometer data and surface observations indicate the circulation remains very small. While believable scatterometer winds up to about 30 kt were noted offshore in the northern semicircle of the circulation, observations from the Acapulco International Airport indicated these winds did not reach the coast when the system made its closest approach earlier tonight. Since the overall satellite presentation has slightly worsened since the earlier scatterometer pass, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. The initial motion is west-northwestward (295/10 kt), and the system should maintain this heading during the next couple of days while being steered by a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. Later this weekend through early next week, the system is forecast to move toward the northwest as it rounds the southwestern portion of the steering ridge. The NHC track forecast through 60 h has been nudged slightly northward this cycle, in agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids. In the near term, only modest strengthening is forecast due to the system's close proximity to land. Some models, including the GFS and ECMWF, completely lose the circulation later today. But if the system remains offshore and survives its close passage to the southwestern coast of Mexico, the environment should become somewhat more favorable for strengthening with weaker shear conditions over warm waters. Overall, the intensity guidance trended much lower this cycle. The updated NHC intensity forecast reflects this trend, but remains on the high end of the guidance envelope. Future downward adjustments may be necessary, and it cannot be ruled out that the system dissipates before the end of the 5-day forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Thirteen-E will impact southern and southwestern Mexico through Sunday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. 2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm today while moving parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. While the strongest winds are expected to remain offshore, gusty winds are possible along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico from Acapulco to Manzanillo during the next day or so. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 16.5N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 17.0N 102.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 17.6N 104.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 18.1N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 18.6N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 19.0N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 19.5N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 21.0N 113.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 23.0N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 393 FOPZ13 KNHC 120835 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0900 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 44(49) 3(52) X(52) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) 1(15) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) 5(44) X(44) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 120835 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 300 AM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 100.8W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen-E was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 100.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico through early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Thirteen-E will lead to rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts of 6 inches, across southern Mexico through Sunday. This brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Gusty winds are possible along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico from west of Acapulco to Manzanillo during the next day or so. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM CST Fri Sep 12 the center of Thirteen-E was located near 16.5, -100.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 120834 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0900 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 100.8W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 100.8W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 100.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.0N 102.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.6N 104.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.1N 106.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.6N 108.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.0N 109.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.5N 110.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 21.0N 113.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 23.0N 115.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 100.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday, a shortwave trough in the northern Plains will continue to pivot northeast. The timing of this feature remains uncertain. The ECMWF is the lone model that has a solution slow enough to have some destabilization occur ahead of the trough. It is not clear how much, if any, severe threat will exist in parts of central/northern Minnesota. On Tuesday, models indicate shortwave ridging will develop behind the departing trough in the Upper Midwest. A secondary, broader trough will be situated in the northern Rockies. Mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, but embedded perturbations may provide some enhancement. Depending on the quality of remaining moisture in the Plains, some severe risk could develop along the surface trough in the central High Plains. Uncertainty is high, however. Through the remainder of the week, the upper-level pattern becomes much more disorganized. Stronger flow may not return until the weekend with a trough approaches the Northwest. Organized severe potential appears to be low during this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday, a shortwave trough in the northern Plains will continue to pivot northeast. The timing of this feature remains uncertain. The ECMWF is the lone model that has a solution slow enough to have some destabilization occur ahead of the trough. It is not clear how much, if any, severe threat will exist in parts of central/northern Minnesota. On Tuesday, models indicate shortwave ridging will develop behind the departing trough in the Upper Midwest. A secondary, broader trough will be situated in the northern Rockies. Mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, but embedded perturbations may provide some enhancement. Depending on the quality of remaining moisture in the Plains, some severe risk could develop along the surface trough in the central High Plains. Uncertainty is high, however. Through the remainder of the week, the upper-level pattern becomes much more disorganized. Stronger flow may not return until the weekend with a trough approaches the Northwest. Organized severe potential appears to be low during this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday, a shortwave trough in the northern Plains will continue to pivot northeast. The timing of this feature remains uncertain. The ECMWF is the lone model that has a solution slow enough to have some destabilization occur ahead of the trough. It is not clear how much, if any, severe threat will exist in parts of central/northern Minnesota. On Tuesday, models indicate shortwave ridging will develop behind the departing trough in the Upper Midwest. A secondary, broader trough will be situated in the northern Rockies. Mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, but embedded perturbations may provide some enhancement. Depending on the quality of remaining moisture in the Plains, some severe risk could develop along the surface trough in the central High Plains. Uncertainty is high, however. Through the remainder of the week, the upper-level pattern becomes much more disorganized. Stronger flow may not return until the weekend with a trough approaches the Northwest. Organized severe potential appears to be low during this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday, a shortwave trough in the northern Plains will continue to pivot northeast. The timing of this feature remains uncertain. The ECMWF is the lone model that has a solution slow enough to have some destabilization occur ahead of the trough. It is not clear how much, if any, severe threat will exist in parts of central/northern Minnesota. On Tuesday, models indicate shortwave ridging will develop behind the departing trough in the Upper Midwest. A secondary, broader trough will be situated in the northern Rockies. Mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, but embedded perturbations may provide some enhancement. Depending on the quality of remaining moisture in the Plains, some severe risk could develop along the surface trough in the central High Plains. Uncertainty is high, however. Through the remainder of the week, the upper-level pattern becomes much more disorganized. Stronger flow may not return until the weekend with a trough approaches the Northwest. Organized severe potential appears to be low during this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday, a shortwave trough in the northern Plains will continue to pivot northeast. The timing of this feature remains uncertain. The ECMWF is the lone model that has a solution slow enough to have some destabilization occur ahead of the trough. It is not clear how much, if any, severe threat will exist in parts of central/northern Minnesota. On Tuesday, models indicate shortwave ridging will develop behind the departing trough in the Upper Midwest. A secondary, broader trough will be situated in the northern Rockies. Mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, but embedded perturbations may provide some enhancement. Depending on the quality of remaining moisture in the Plains, some severe risk could develop along the surface trough in the central High Plains. Uncertainty is high, however. Through the remainder of the week, the upper-level pattern becomes much more disorganized. Stronger flow may not return until the weekend with a trough approaches the Northwest. Organized severe potential appears to be low during this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday, a shortwave trough in the northern Plains will continue to pivot northeast. The timing of this feature remains uncertain. The ECMWF is the lone model that has a solution slow enough to have some destabilization occur ahead of the trough. It is not clear how much, if any, severe threat will exist in parts of central/northern Minnesota. On Tuesday, models indicate shortwave ridging will develop behind the departing trough in the Upper Midwest. A secondary, broader trough will be situated in the northern Rockies. Mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, but embedded perturbations may provide some enhancement. Depending on the quality of remaining moisture in the Plains, some severe risk could develop along the surface trough in the central High Plains. Uncertainty is high, however. Through the remainder of the week, the upper-level pattern becomes much more disorganized. Stronger flow may not return until the weekend with a trough approaches the Northwest. Organized severe potential appears to be low during this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday, a shortwave trough in the northern Plains will continue to pivot northeast. The timing of this feature remains uncertain. The ECMWF is the lone model that has a solution slow enough to have some destabilization occur ahead of the trough. It is not clear how much, if any, severe threat will exist in parts of central/northern Minnesota. On Tuesday, models indicate shortwave ridging will develop behind the departing trough in the Upper Midwest. A secondary, broader trough will be situated in the northern Rockies. Mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, but embedded perturbations may provide some enhancement. Depending on the quality of remaining moisture in the Plains, some severe risk could develop along the surface trough in the central High Plains. Uncertainty is high, however. Through the remainder of the week, the upper-level pattern becomes much more disorganized. Stronger flow may not return until the weekend with a trough approaches the Northwest. Organized severe potential appears to be low during this period. Read more

MD 2062 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2062 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Areas affected...Northeastern North Dakota...Far Northwest Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120608Z - 120845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Potential for large hail threat may continue for a couple more hours over northeastern North Dakota, but the threat should remain too isolated for weather watch issuance. DISCUSSION...A subtle shortwave is evident on water vapor imagery over northeastern North Dakota, which is providing support for a small cluster of strong thunderstorms. These storms are located along the northeastern edge of a pocket of moderate instability, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s F, and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP near 2000 J/kg range. In this area, forecast soundings from the RAP have 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km, with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range. This environment should support a potential for large hail with the strongest of cells within the ongoing cluster. This cluster is forecast to move eastward across the remainder of northeast North Dakota and into far northwest Minnesota over the next few hours. Any severe threat should be too isolated for weather watch issuance. ..Broyles/Bunting.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 48999936 48990007 48830049 48500062 48180048 47949973 47779747 47769663 47959627 48489602 48779610 48969650 48989753 48999936 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in the parts of the northern and central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough, initially within the central High Plains, will pivot northeastward into the central/northern Plains on Sunday. A surface low is forecast within the Dakotas with a weaker trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Northern/central Plains... A surface low is expected to be in the northern Plains. This, along with a surface trough extending to the south and a warm front across the Upper Midwest, should provide some focus for storm development during the afternoon. Given the orientation of the upper trough, hodographs will tend to have some veer-back characteristics in the mid/upper levels. Even so, enough vertical shear should exist to promote organized storms. Cloud cover may hinder surface heating, more so to the north. Temperatures near -10 C at 500 mb will allow for 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE with perhaps near 2000 J/kg in Nebraska/Kansas. The highest confidence in storm initiation is within parts of the central/eastern Dakotas where the greater low/mid-level forcing will be. Forcing becomes less certain with southern extent. Large hail and severe gusts are the main hazards. ...Southern High Plains... A more conditional severe threat exists in this area. Model guidance is not consistent with regard to how fast the trough will eject into the Plains and pivot northeast. In either case, the surface trough/convergence will be weak. The slower ECMWF solution would suggest greater potential for initiation even though there still will be slight mid-level height rises during the afternoon/evening. Sufficient mid-level flow across the southern Rockies could promote organized storms, but confidence in initiation/coverage is much too low for probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in the parts of the northern and central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough, initially within the central High Plains, will pivot northeastward into the central/northern Plains on Sunday. A surface low is forecast within the Dakotas with a weaker trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Northern/central Plains... A surface low is expected to be in the northern Plains. This, along with a surface trough extending to the south and a warm front across the Upper Midwest, should provide some focus for storm development during the afternoon. Given the orientation of the upper trough, hodographs will tend to have some veer-back characteristics in the mid/upper levels. Even so, enough vertical shear should exist to promote organized storms. Cloud cover may hinder surface heating, more so to the north. Temperatures near -10 C at 500 mb will allow for 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE with perhaps near 2000 J/kg in Nebraska/Kansas. The highest confidence in storm initiation is within parts of the central/eastern Dakotas where the greater low/mid-level forcing will be. Forcing becomes less certain with southern extent. Large hail and severe gusts are the main hazards. ...Southern High Plains... A more conditional severe threat exists in this area. Model guidance is not consistent with regard to how fast the trough will eject into the Plains and pivot northeast. In either case, the surface trough/convergence will be weak. The slower ECMWF solution would suggest greater potential for initiation even though there still will be slight mid-level height rises during the afternoon/evening. Sufficient mid-level flow across the southern Rockies could promote organized storms, but confidence in initiation/coverage is much too low for probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in the parts of the northern and central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough, initially within the central High Plains, will pivot northeastward into the central/northern Plains on Sunday. A surface low is forecast within the Dakotas with a weaker trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Northern/central Plains... A surface low is expected to be in the northern Plains. This, along with a surface trough extending to the south and a warm front across the Upper Midwest, should provide some focus for storm development during the afternoon. Given the orientation of the upper trough, hodographs will tend to have some veer-back characteristics in the mid/upper levels. Even so, enough vertical shear should exist to promote organized storms. Cloud cover may hinder surface heating, more so to the north. Temperatures near -10 C at 500 mb will allow for 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE with perhaps near 2000 J/kg in Nebraska/Kansas. The highest confidence in storm initiation is within parts of the central/eastern Dakotas where the greater low/mid-level forcing will be. Forcing becomes less certain with southern extent. Large hail and severe gusts are the main hazards. ...Southern High Plains... A more conditional severe threat exists in this area. Model guidance is not consistent with regard to how fast the trough will eject into the Plains and pivot northeast. In either case, the surface trough/convergence will be weak. The slower ECMWF solution would suggest greater potential for initiation even though there still will be slight mid-level height rises during the afternoon/evening. Sufficient mid-level flow across the southern Rockies could promote organized storms, but confidence in initiation/coverage is much too low for probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in the parts of the northern and central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough, initially within the central High Plains, will pivot northeastward into the central/northern Plains on Sunday. A surface low is forecast within the Dakotas with a weaker trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Northern/central Plains... A surface low is expected to be in the northern Plains. This, along with a surface trough extending to the south and a warm front across the Upper Midwest, should provide some focus for storm development during the afternoon. Given the orientation of the upper trough, hodographs will tend to have some veer-back characteristics in the mid/upper levels. Even so, enough vertical shear should exist to promote organized storms. Cloud cover may hinder surface heating, more so to the north. Temperatures near -10 C at 500 mb will allow for 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE with perhaps near 2000 J/kg in Nebraska/Kansas. The highest confidence in storm initiation is within parts of the central/eastern Dakotas where the greater low/mid-level forcing will be. Forcing becomes less certain with southern extent. Large hail and severe gusts are the main hazards. ...Southern High Plains... A more conditional severe threat exists in this area. Model guidance is not consistent with regard to how fast the trough will eject into the Plains and pivot northeast. In either case, the surface trough/convergence will be weak. The slower ECMWF solution would suggest greater potential for initiation even though there still will be slight mid-level height rises during the afternoon/evening. Sufficient mid-level flow across the southern Rockies could promote organized storms, but confidence in initiation/coverage is much too low for probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in the parts of the northern and central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough, initially within the central High Plains, will pivot northeastward into the central/northern Plains on Sunday. A surface low is forecast within the Dakotas with a weaker trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Northern/central Plains... A surface low is expected to be in the northern Plains. This, along with a surface trough extending to the south and a warm front across the Upper Midwest, should provide some focus for storm development during the afternoon. Given the orientation of the upper trough, hodographs will tend to have some veer-back characteristics in the mid/upper levels. Even so, enough vertical shear should exist to promote organized storms. Cloud cover may hinder surface heating, more so to the north. Temperatures near -10 C at 500 mb will allow for 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE with perhaps near 2000 J/kg in Nebraska/Kansas. The highest confidence in storm initiation is within parts of the central/eastern Dakotas where the greater low/mid-level forcing will be. Forcing becomes less certain with southern extent. Large hail and severe gusts are the main hazards. ...Southern High Plains... A more conditional severe threat exists in this area. Model guidance is not consistent with regard to how fast the trough will eject into the Plains and pivot northeast. In either case, the surface trough/convergence will be weak. The slower ECMWF solution would suggest greater potential for initiation even though there still will be slight mid-level height rises during the afternoon/evening. Sufficient mid-level flow across the southern Rockies could promote organized storms, but confidence in initiation/coverage is much too low for probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in the parts of the northern and central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough, initially within the central High Plains, will pivot northeastward into the central/northern Plains on Sunday. A surface low is forecast within the Dakotas with a weaker trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Northern/central Plains... A surface low is expected to be in the northern Plains. This, along with a surface trough extending to the south and a warm front across the Upper Midwest, should provide some focus for storm development during the afternoon. Given the orientation of the upper trough, hodographs will tend to have some veer-back characteristics in the mid/upper levels. Even so, enough vertical shear should exist to promote organized storms. Cloud cover may hinder surface heating, more so to the north. Temperatures near -10 C at 500 mb will allow for 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE with perhaps near 2000 J/kg in Nebraska/Kansas. The highest confidence in storm initiation is within parts of the central/eastern Dakotas where the greater low/mid-level forcing will be. Forcing becomes less certain with southern extent. Large hail and severe gusts are the main hazards. ...Southern High Plains... A more conditional severe threat exists in this area. Model guidance is not consistent with regard to how fast the trough will eject into the Plains and pivot northeast. In either case, the surface trough/convergence will be weak. The slower ECMWF solution would suggest greater potential for initiation even though there still will be slight mid-level height rises during the afternoon/evening. Sufficient mid-level flow across the southern Rockies could promote organized storms, but confidence in initiation/coverage is much too low for probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as a preceding upper trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow (Saturday). The net result will be another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Rockies toward the Four Corners region in association to the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass with the upper trough. These storms will likely be more wet than dry, and will traverse areas that may see appreciable rainfall accumulations on Day 1, potentially dampening fuels in the process. While an instance or two of lightning-induced wildfire ignition cannot be ruled out, the coverage of such occurrences should be sparse at best. ..Squitieri.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more