Aggregator

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Thu Sep 11 the center of Thirteen-E was located near 15.5, -98.8 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 11 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 112031 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 2100 UTC THU SEP 11 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 98.8W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 98.8W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 98.3W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.1N 100.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.7N 102.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.3N 104.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.7N 106.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.2N 107.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.6N 109.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 20.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 22.1N 113.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 98.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0237 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over eastern Montana into western North Dakota late this afternoon through the evening. The primary hazards are severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a large cyclone over the West with a downstream ridge over the Great Plains, and a trough centered over the Lower Great Lakes. Southwesterly mid to high-level flow extends from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough northeastward through the Great Basin and into the northern Great Plains. A mid-level disturbance implied in water-vapor imagery over western WY, is forecast to move northeast into eastern MT/western ND towards this evening. In the low levels, a plume of seasonably rich moisture will protrude northward from the central Plains into the Dakotas and eastern MT. A lee trough will extend southward from a surface low over the northern High Plains. ...Rockies into the northern Plains... An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms associated with warm-air advection near the ND/Manitoba border will continue to move east-northeastward into southern Canada ahead of a pair of MCVs over western ND/eastern MT. Diurnal heating over the higher terrain from near the Four Corners northward into southern MT will favor scattered thunderstorms developing during the midday into the early afternoon. Storm coverage will increase further over the central Rockies during the afternoon, with the stronger storms capable of an isolated hail/wind threat. As the airmass destabilizes over the plains, particularly across eastern MT within the moist plume primarily north of the surface low, isolated to scattered storms are forecast by mid to late afternoon. This initial activity will probably develop near the MT/WY border with upscale growth into a cluster possible during the evening. Deep-layer shear supporting organized storm modes coupled with steep lapse rates, will combine to aid in several stronger storms capable of a hail/wind threat. The wind threat will probably continue into ND during the evening within the terminus region of a 35-40 kt southerly LLJ. A gradual transition to increasingly elevated convection is expected late as convective inhibition increases and the overall severe risk lessens. ..15_ows.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0237 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over eastern Montana into western North Dakota late this afternoon through the evening. The primary hazards are severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a large cyclone over the West with a downstream ridge over the Great Plains, and a trough centered over the Lower Great Lakes. Southwesterly mid to high-level flow extends from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough northeastward through the Great Basin and into the northern Great Plains. A mid-level disturbance implied in water-vapor imagery over western WY, is forecast to move northeast into eastern MT/western ND towards this evening. In the low levels, a plume of seasonably rich moisture will protrude northward from the central Plains into the Dakotas and eastern MT. A lee trough will extend southward from a surface low over the northern High Plains. ...Rockies into the northern Plains... An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms associated with warm-air advection near the ND/Manitoba border will continue to move east-northeastward into southern Canada ahead of a pair of MCVs over western ND/eastern MT. Diurnal heating over the higher terrain from near the Four Corners northward into southern MT will favor scattered thunderstorms developing during the midday into the early afternoon. Storm coverage will increase further over the central Rockies during the afternoon, with the stronger storms capable of an isolated hail/wind threat. As the airmass destabilizes over the plains, particularly across eastern MT within the moist plume primarily north of the surface low, isolated to scattered storms are forecast by mid to late afternoon. This initial activity will probably develop near the MT/WY border with upscale growth into a cluster possible during the evening. Deep-layer shear supporting organized storm modes coupled with steep lapse rates, will combine to aid in several stronger storms capable of a hail/wind threat. The wind threat will probably continue into ND during the evening within the terminus region of a 35-40 kt southerly LLJ. A gradual transition to increasingly elevated convection is expected late as convective inhibition increases and the overall severe risk lessens. ..15_ows.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0237 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over eastern Montana into western North Dakota late this afternoon through the evening. The primary hazards are severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a large cyclone over the West with a downstream ridge over the Great Plains, and a trough centered over the Lower Great Lakes. Southwesterly mid to high-level flow extends from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough northeastward through the Great Basin and into the northern Great Plains. A mid-level disturbance implied in water-vapor imagery over western WY, is forecast to move northeast into eastern MT/western ND towards this evening. In the low levels, a plume of seasonably rich moisture will protrude northward from the central Plains into the Dakotas and eastern MT. A lee trough will extend southward from a surface low over the northern High Plains. ...Rockies into the northern Plains... An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms associated with warm-air advection near the ND/Manitoba border will continue to move east-northeastward into southern Canada ahead of a pair of MCVs over western ND/eastern MT. Diurnal heating over the higher terrain from near the Four Corners northward into southern MT will favor scattered thunderstorms developing during the midday into the early afternoon. Storm coverage will increase further over the central Rockies during the afternoon, with the stronger storms capable of an isolated hail/wind threat. As the airmass destabilizes over the plains, particularly across eastern MT within the moist plume primarily north of the surface low, isolated to scattered storms are forecast by mid to late afternoon. This initial activity will probably develop near the MT/WY border with upscale growth into a cluster possible during the evening. Deep-layer shear supporting organized storm modes coupled with steep lapse rates, will combine to aid in several stronger storms capable of a hail/wind threat. The wind threat will probably continue into ND during the evening within the terminus region of a 35-40 kt southerly LLJ. A gradual transition to increasingly elevated convection is expected late as convective inhibition increases and the overall severe risk lessens. ..15_ows.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0237 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over eastern Montana into western North Dakota late this afternoon through the evening. The primary hazards are severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a large cyclone over the West with a downstream ridge over the Great Plains, and a trough centered over the Lower Great Lakes. Southwesterly mid to high-level flow extends from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough northeastward through the Great Basin and into the northern Great Plains. A mid-level disturbance implied in water-vapor imagery over western WY, is forecast to move northeast into eastern MT/western ND towards this evening. In the low levels, a plume of seasonably rich moisture will protrude northward from the central Plains into the Dakotas and eastern MT. A lee trough will extend southward from a surface low over the northern High Plains. ...Rockies into the northern Plains... An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms associated with warm-air advection near the ND/Manitoba border will continue to move east-northeastward into southern Canada ahead of a pair of MCVs over western ND/eastern MT. Diurnal heating over the higher terrain from near the Four Corners northward into southern MT will favor scattered thunderstorms developing during the midday into the early afternoon. Storm coverage will increase further over the central Rockies during the afternoon, with the stronger storms capable of an isolated hail/wind threat. As the airmass destabilizes over the plains, particularly across eastern MT within the moist plume primarily north of the surface low, isolated to scattered storms are forecast by mid to late afternoon. This initial activity will probably develop near the MT/WY border with upscale growth into a cluster possible during the evening. Deep-layer shear supporting organized storm modes coupled with steep lapse rates, will combine to aid in several stronger storms capable of a hail/wind threat. The wind threat will probably continue into ND during the evening within the terminus region of a 35-40 kt southerly LLJ. A gradual transition to increasingly elevated convection is expected late as convective inhibition increases and the overall severe risk lessens. ..15_ows.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0237 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over eastern Montana into western North Dakota late this afternoon through the evening. The primary hazards are severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a large cyclone over the West with a downstream ridge over the Great Plains, and a trough centered over the Lower Great Lakes. Southwesterly mid to high-level flow extends from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough northeastward through the Great Basin and into the northern Great Plains. A mid-level disturbance implied in water-vapor imagery over western WY, is forecast to move northeast into eastern MT/western ND towards this evening. In the low levels, a plume of seasonably rich moisture will protrude northward from the central Plains into the Dakotas and eastern MT. A lee trough will extend southward from a surface low over the northern High Plains. ...Rockies into the northern Plains... An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms associated with warm-air advection near the ND/Manitoba border will continue to move east-northeastward into southern Canada ahead of a pair of MCVs over western ND/eastern MT. Diurnal heating over the higher terrain from near the Four Corners northward into southern MT will favor scattered thunderstorms developing during the midday into the early afternoon. Storm coverage will increase further over the central Rockies during the afternoon, with the stronger storms capable of an isolated hail/wind threat. As the airmass destabilizes over the plains, particularly across eastern MT within the moist plume primarily north of the surface low, isolated to scattered storms are forecast by mid to late afternoon. This initial activity will probably develop near the MT/WY border with upscale growth into a cluster possible during the evening. Deep-layer shear supporting organized storm modes coupled with steep lapse rates, will combine to aid in several stronger storms capable of a hail/wind threat. The wind threat will probably continue into ND during the evening within the terminus region of a 35-40 kt southerly LLJ. A gradual transition to increasingly elevated convection is expected late as convective inhibition increases and the overall severe risk lessens. ..15_ows.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0237 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over eastern Montana into western North Dakota late this afternoon through the evening. The primary hazards are severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a large cyclone over the West with a downstream ridge over the Great Plains, and a trough centered over the Lower Great Lakes. Southwesterly mid to high-level flow extends from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough northeastward through the Great Basin and into the northern Great Plains. A mid-level disturbance implied in water-vapor imagery over western WY, is forecast to move northeast into eastern MT/western ND towards this evening. In the low levels, a plume of seasonably rich moisture will protrude northward from the central Plains into the Dakotas and eastern MT. A lee trough will extend southward from a surface low over the northern High Plains. ...Rockies into the northern Plains... An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms associated with warm-air advection near the ND/Manitoba border will continue to move east-northeastward into southern Canada ahead of a pair of MCVs over western ND/eastern MT. Diurnal heating over the higher terrain from near the Four Corners northward into southern MT will favor scattered thunderstorms developing during the midday into the early afternoon. Storm coverage will increase further over the central Rockies during the afternoon, with the stronger storms capable of an isolated hail/wind threat. As the airmass destabilizes over the plains, particularly across eastern MT within the moist plume primarily north of the surface low, isolated to scattered storms are forecast by mid to late afternoon. This initial activity will probably develop near the MT/WY border with upscale growth into a cluster possible during the evening. Deep-layer shear supporting organized storm modes coupled with steep lapse rates, will combine to aid in several stronger storms capable of a hail/wind threat. The wind threat will probably continue into ND during the evening within the terminus region of a 35-40 kt southerly LLJ. A gradual transition to increasingly elevated convection is expected late as convective inhibition increases and the overall severe risk lessens. ..15_ows.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough over the western U.S. will become more diffuse through the Day 2 period. This will aid in reducing daytime surface winds across portions of the Southwest and in particular Utah. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are still expected across northwestern Arizona and southern Utah Friday with southwest winds of up to 15 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% by the afternoon. However, fuel dryness is lacking to allow for significant wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will broaden and the mid-level jet will lose definition on Friday. Though not overly intense, a surface low will move into the central Plains and help promote windier conditions for parts of the central/southern Plains. Recent rainfall and generally unreceptive fuels will mean very minimal fire risk. Dry conditions will persist in parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, but winds will be weaker than previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough over the western U.S. will become more diffuse through the Day 2 period. This will aid in reducing daytime surface winds across portions of the Southwest and in particular Utah. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are still expected across northwestern Arizona and southern Utah Friday with southwest winds of up to 15 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% by the afternoon. However, fuel dryness is lacking to allow for significant wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will broaden and the mid-level jet will lose definition on Friday. Though not overly intense, a surface low will move into the central Plains and help promote windier conditions for parts of the central/southern Plains. Recent rainfall and generally unreceptive fuels will mean very minimal fire risk. Dry conditions will persist in parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, but winds will be weaker than previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough over the western U.S. will become more diffuse through the Day 2 period. This will aid in reducing daytime surface winds across portions of the Southwest and in particular Utah. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are still expected across northwestern Arizona and southern Utah Friday with southwest winds of up to 15 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% by the afternoon. However, fuel dryness is lacking to allow for significant wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will broaden and the mid-level jet will lose definition on Friday. Though not overly intense, a surface low will move into the central Plains and help promote windier conditions for parts of the central/southern Plains. Recent rainfall and generally unreceptive fuels will mean very minimal fire risk. Dry conditions will persist in parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, but winds will be weaker than previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough over the western U.S. will become more diffuse through the Day 2 period. This will aid in reducing daytime surface winds across portions of the Southwest and in particular Utah. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are still expected across northwestern Arizona and southern Utah Friday with southwest winds of up to 15 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% by the afternoon. However, fuel dryness is lacking to allow for significant wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will broaden and the mid-level jet will lose definition on Friday. Though not overly intense, a surface low will move into the central Plains and help promote windier conditions for parts of the central/southern Plains. Recent rainfall and generally unreceptive fuels will mean very minimal fire risk. Dry conditions will persist in parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, but winds will be weaker than previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough over the western U.S. will become more diffuse through the Day 2 period. This will aid in reducing daytime surface winds across portions of the Southwest and in particular Utah. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are still expected across northwestern Arizona and southern Utah Friday with southwest winds of up to 15 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% by the afternoon. However, fuel dryness is lacking to allow for significant wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will broaden and the mid-level jet will lose definition on Friday. Though not overly intense, a surface low will move into the central Plains and help promote windier conditions for parts of the central/southern Plains. Recent rainfall and generally unreceptive fuels will mean very minimal fire risk. Dry conditions will persist in parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, but winds will be weaker than previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough over the western U.S. will become more diffuse through the Day 2 period. This will aid in reducing daytime surface winds across portions of the Southwest and in particular Utah. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are still expected across northwestern Arizona and southern Utah Friday with southwest winds of up to 15 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% by the afternoon. However, fuel dryness is lacking to allow for significant wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will broaden and the mid-level jet will lose definition on Friday. Though not overly intense, a surface low will move into the central Plains and help promote windier conditions for parts of the central/southern Plains. Recent rainfall and generally unreceptive fuels will mean very minimal fire risk. Dry conditions will persist in parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, but winds will be weaker than previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Honey bees were struggling to pollinate plants and make honey this year because spring was rainy and not conducive to leaving the hive to forage. The dry summer has hindered nectar production, which bees use to make honey. To leave honey bee colonies with enough honey for energy, beekeepers were not harvesting as much honey. It’s too early to know how the year’s total honey yield might be affected. Maine Public (Bangor, Maine), Sep 11, 2025

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains and northern Plains Saturday. Scattered to numerous storms are also possible over the Midwest, though confidence in severe potential is lower here. ...Synopsis... A large, negatively-tilted trough will shift east across the Rockies on Saturday with a weak lee cyclone across the northern Plains. A dry, continental airmass will be in place across the eastern CONUS where high pressure will be in place. ...Southern/central High Plains... Low-level moisture advection across the High Plains, combined with cooling temperatures aloft will lead to some destabilization across eastern New Mexico and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. Overall heating/instability will likely be somewhat muted by cloudcover ahead of the upper-level trough. Nonetheless, as the cold front advances east of the terrain and interacts with weak to potentially moderate instability, stronger updrafts may develop. Around 40 knots of mid-level flow will result in moderate instability and the potential for some storm organization. Overall expect limited instability to keep the threat limited/isolated. ...Northern Plains... Guidance consistently shows moisture wrapping around the northern portion of a cyclone across South Dakota Saturday morning, this moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft and isentropic ascent may result in a few elevated thunderstorms capable of large hail on Saturday morning. Additional storms may develop north of the surface low as temperatures cool aloft and some surface-based instability develops in the wake of morning storms. This environment may also support a few strong storms capable of isolated damaging winds/large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains and northern Plains Saturday. Scattered to numerous storms are also possible over the Midwest, though confidence in severe potential is lower here. ...Synopsis... A large, negatively-tilted trough will shift east across the Rockies on Saturday with a weak lee cyclone across the northern Plains. A dry, continental airmass will be in place across the eastern CONUS where high pressure will be in place. ...Southern/central High Plains... Low-level moisture advection across the High Plains, combined with cooling temperatures aloft will lead to some destabilization across eastern New Mexico and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. Overall heating/instability will likely be somewhat muted by cloudcover ahead of the upper-level trough. Nonetheless, as the cold front advances east of the terrain and interacts with weak to potentially moderate instability, stronger updrafts may develop. Around 40 knots of mid-level flow will result in moderate instability and the potential for some storm organization. Overall expect limited instability to keep the threat limited/isolated. ...Northern Plains... Guidance consistently shows moisture wrapping around the northern portion of a cyclone across South Dakota Saturday morning, this moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft and isentropic ascent may result in a few elevated thunderstorms capable of large hail on Saturday morning. Additional storms may develop north of the surface low as temperatures cool aloft and some surface-based instability develops in the wake of morning storms. This environment may also support a few strong storms capable of isolated damaging winds/large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains and northern Plains Saturday. Scattered to numerous storms are also possible over the Midwest, though confidence in severe potential is lower here. ...Synopsis... A large, negatively-tilted trough will shift east across the Rockies on Saturday with a weak lee cyclone across the northern Plains. A dry, continental airmass will be in place across the eastern CONUS where high pressure will be in place. ...Southern/central High Plains... Low-level moisture advection across the High Plains, combined with cooling temperatures aloft will lead to some destabilization across eastern New Mexico and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. Overall heating/instability will likely be somewhat muted by cloudcover ahead of the upper-level trough. Nonetheless, as the cold front advances east of the terrain and interacts with weak to potentially moderate instability, stronger updrafts may develop. Around 40 knots of mid-level flow will result in moderate instability and the potential for some storm organization. Overall expect limited instability to keep the threat limited/isolated. ...Northern Plains... Guidance consistently shows moisture wrapping around the northern portion of a cyclone across South Dakota Saturday morning, this moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft and isentropic ascent may result in a few elevated thunderstorms capable of large hail on Saturday morning. Additional storms may develop north of the surface low as temperatures cool aloft and some surface-based instability develops in the wake of morning storms. This environment may also support a few strong storms capable of isolated damaging winds/large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains and northern Plains Saturday. Scattered to numerous storms are also possible over the Midwest, though confidence in severe potential is lower here. ...Synopsis... A large, negatively-tilted trough will shift east across the Rockies on Saturday with a weak lee cyclone across the northern Plains. A dry, continental airmass will be in place across the eastern CONUS where high pressure will be in place. ...Southern/central High Plains... Low-level moisture advection across the High Plains, combined with cooling temperatures aloft will lead to some destabilization across eastern New Mexico and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. Overall heating/instability will likely be somewhat muted by cloudcover ahead of the upper-level trough. Nonetheless, as the cold front advances east of the terrain and interacts with weak to potentially moderate instability, stronger updrafts may develop. Around 40 knots of mid-level flow will result in moderate instability and the potential for some storm organization. Overall expect limited instability to keep the threat limited/isolated. ...Northern Plains... Guidance consistently shows moisture wrapping around the northern portion of a cyclone across South Dakota Saturday morning, this moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft and isentropic ascent may result in a few elevated thunderstorms capable of large hail on Saturday morning. Additional storms may develop north of the surface low as temperatures cool aloft and some surface-based instability develops in the wake of morning storms. This environment may also support a few strong storms capable of isolated damaging winds/large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains and northern Plains Saturday. Scattered to numerous storms are also possible over the Midwest, though confidence in severe potential is lower here. ...Synopsis... A large, negatively-tilted trough will shift east across the Rockies on Saturday with a weak lee cyclone across the northern Plains. A dry, continental airmass will be in place across the eastern CONUS where high pressure will be in place. ...Southern/central High Plains... Low-level moisture advection across the High Plains, combined with cooling temperatures aloft will lead to some destabilization across eastern New Mexico and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. Overall heating/instability will likely be somewhat muted by cloudcover ahead of the upper-level trough. Nonetheless, as the cold front advances east of the terrain and interacts with weak to potentially moderate instability, stronger updrafts may develop. Around 40 knots of mid-level flow will result in moderate instability and the potential for some storm organization. Overall expect limited instability to keep the threat limited/isolated. ...Northern Plains... Guidance consistently shows moisture wrapping around the northern portion of a cyclone across South Dakota Saturday morning, this moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft and isentropic ascent may result in a few elevated thunderstorms capable of large hail on Saturday morning. Additional storms may develop north of the surface low as temperatures cool aloft and some surface-based instability develops in the wake of morning storms. This environment may also support a few strong storms capable of isolated damaging winds/large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2025 Read more