Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Great Basin will move marginally eastward today. The mid-level dry slot will move over western Utah during the afternoon. Though the mid-level jet will be weakening through the period, there should be enough flow across parts of the eastern Great Basin to promote at least pockets of locally elevated fire weather. With locally stronger winds and drier surface conditions in western Utah, sustained elevated conditions are most likely here. Surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% by the afternoon are expected. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Great Basin will move marginally eastward today. The mid-level dry slot will move over western Utah during the afternoon. Though the mid-level jet will be weakening through the period, there should be enough flow across parts of the eastern Great Basin to promote at least pockets of locally elevated fire weather. With locally stronger winds and drier surface conditions in western Utah, sustained elevated conditions are most likely here. Surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% by the afternoon are expected. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Great Basin will move marginally eastward today. The mid-level dry slot will move over western Utah during the afternoon. Though the mid-level jet will be weakening through the period, there should be enough flow across parts of the eastern Great Basin to promote at least pockets of locally elevated fire weather. With locally stronger winds and drier surface conditions in western Utah, sustained elevated conditions are most likely here. Surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% by the afternoon are expected. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE FOUR CORNERS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts are possible across the Four Corners region on Friday. Additional storms are possible over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Friday. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough and enhanced southwesterly flow will move out of the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains Friday as upper ridging begins to move eastward. Associated with the approaching trough, a weak lee cyclone along a stalled front over the Dakotas will draw rich low-level moisture westward toward a second weak cold front moving out of the Rockies. Modest ascent is expected much of the day along and north of the surface low/front across northern WY, western ND and central/eastern MT. While cloud cover and early morning convection may temper heating somewhat, elevated buoyancy is expected to support scattered to numerous storms through the afternoon. With 35-45 kt of southwesterly flow aloft extending mid and upper-level hodographs, a few elevated clusters or supercells are possible. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear could support isolated hail and strong gusts with the strongest storms, though confidence in the overall severe risk remains fairly low given the potential for clouds and early morning storms. Convective coverage may increase through the evening and overnight hours as a 35-45 kt southerly low-level jet develops over the Plains. CAM guidance remains quite dispersive, but some solutions show the potential for isolated severe gusts with elevated storm clusters moving eastward across the Dakotas overnight. A second cluster of elevated storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the eastern Dakotas/western MN associated with a weak shortwave trough and low-level warm advection along the stalled front. If this occurs, a low-end wind/hail threat could exist during the morning as the shortwave continues east/southeastward toward the Great Lakes. Buoyancy and ascent should decrease quickly with eastward extent suggesting only a limited severe risk. ...Four Corners... A shortwave trough and an associated belt of stronger southwesterly flow aloft will be present over portions of the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies Friday. An associated cold front will also shift eastward, impinging upon a modified monsoon air mass across northern AZ/NM into eastern UT and western/central CO. A band of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are likely be ongoing early in the period ahead of the front. While moisture content (PWATS 0.5-0.8 inches) will not be overly robust, it should be sufficient to support weak diurnal destabilization amid cloud cover and remnant showers/storms. Convection should gradually increase in coverage along the front and across the higher terrain by late morning and early afternoon. The stronger mid-level flow could allow for a few storms to organize into mutlicell clusters or weak supercells. With steep low and mid-level lapse rates present, strong gusts appear possible with any sustained storms, along with small hail. ..Lyons.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE FOUR CORNERS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts are possible across the Four Corners region on Friday. Additional storms are possible over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Friday. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough and enhanced southwesterly flow will move out of the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains Friday as upper ridging begins to move eastward. Associated with the approaching trough, a weak lee cyclone along a stalled front over the Dakotas will draw rich low-level moisture westward toward a second weak cold front moving out of the Rockies. Modest ascent is expected much of the day along and north of the surface low/front across northern WY, western ND and central/eastern MT. While cloud cover and early morning convection may temper heating somewhat, elevated buoyancy is expected to support scattered to numerous storms through the afternoon. With 35-45 kt of southwesterly flow aloft extending mid and upper-level hodographs, a few elevated clusters or supercells are possible. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear could support isolated hail and strong gusts with the strongest storms, though confidence in the overall severe risk remains fairly low given the potential for clouds and early morning storms. Convective coverage may increase through the evening and overnight hours as a 35-45 kt southerly low-level jet develops over the Plains. CAM guidance remains quite dispersive, but some solutions show the potential for isolated severe gusts with elevated storm clusters moving eastward across the Dakotas overnight. A second cluster of elevated storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the eastern Dakotas/western MN associated with a weak shortwave trough and low-level warm advection along the stalled front. If this occurs, a low-end wind/hail threat could exist during the morning as the shortwave continues east/southeastward toward the Great Lakes. Buoyancy and ascent should decrease quickly with eastward extent suggesting only a limited severe risk. ...Four Corners... A shortwave trough and an associated belt of stronger southwesterly flow aloft will be present over portions of the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies Friday. An associated cold front will also shift eastward, impinging upon a modified monsoon air mass across northern AZ/NM into eastern UT and western/central CO. A band of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are likely be ongoing early in the period ahead of the front. While moisture content (PWATS 0.5-0.8 inches) will not be overly robust, it should be sufficient to support weak diurnal destabilization amid cloud cover and remnant showers/storms. Convection should gradually increase in coverage along the front and across the higher terrain by late morning and early afternoon. The stronger mid-level flow could allow for a few storms to organize into mutlicell clusters or weak supercells. With steep low and mid-level lapse rates present, strong gusts appear possible with any sustained storms, along with small hail. ..Lyons.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE FOUR CORNERS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts are possible across the Four Corners region on Friday. Additional storms are possible over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Friday. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough and enhanced southwesterly flow will move out of the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains Friday as upper ridging begins to move eastward. Associated with the approaching trough, a weak lee cyclone along a stalled front over the Dakotas will draw rich low-level moisture westward toward a second weak cold front moving out of the Rockies. Modest ascent is expected much of the day along and north of the surface low/front across northern WY, western ND and central/eastern MT. While cloud cover and early morning convection may temper heating somewhat, elevated buoyancy is expected to support scattered to numerous storms through the afternoon. With 35-45 kt of southwesterly flow aloft extending mid and upper-level hodographs, a few elevated clusters or supercells are possible. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear could support isolated hail and strong gusts with the strongest storms, though confidence in the overall severe risk remains fairly low given the potential for clouds and early morning storms. Convective coverage may increase through the evening and overnight hours as a 35-45 kt southerly low-level jet develops over the Plains. CAM guidance remains quite dispersive, but some solutions show the potential for isolated severe gusts with elevated storm clusters moving eastward across the Dakotas overnight. A second cluster of elevated storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the eastern Dakotas/western MN associated with a weak shortwave trough and low-level warm advection along the stalled front. If this occurs, a low-end wind/hail threat could exist during the morning as the shortwave continues east/southeastward toward the Great Lakes. Buoyancy and ascent should decrease quickly with eastward extent suggesting only a limited severe risk. ...Four Corners... A shortwave trough and an associated belt of stronger southwesterly flow aloft will be present over portions of the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies Friday. An associated cold front will also shift eastward, impinging upon a modified monsoon air mass across northern AZ/NM into eastern UT and western/central CO. A band of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are likely be ongoing early in the period ahead of the front. While moisture content (PWATS 0.5-0.8 inches) will not be overly robust, it should be sufficient to support weak diurnal destabilization amid cloud cover and remnant showers/storms. Convection should gradually increase in coverage along the front and across the higher terrain by late morning and early afternoon. The stronger mid-level flow could allow for a few storms to organize into mutlicell clusters or weak supercells. With steep low and mid-level lapse rates present, strong gusts appear possible with any sustained storms, along with small hail. ..Lyons.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE FOUR CORNERS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts are possible across the Four Corners region on Friday. Additional storms are possible over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Friday. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough and enhanced southwesterly flow will move out of the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains Friday as upper ridging begins to move eastward. Associated with the approaching trough, a weak lee cyclone along a stalled front over the Dakotas will draw rich low-level moisture westward toward a second weak cold front moving out of the Rockies. Modest ascent is expected much of the day along and north of the surface low/front across northern WY, western ND and central/eastern MT. While cloud cover and early morning convection may temper heating somewhat, elevated buoyancy is expected to support scattered to numerous storms through the afternoon. With 35-45 kt of southwesterly flow aloft extending mid and upper-level hodographs, a few elevated clusters or supercells are possible. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear could support isolated hail and strong gusts with the strongest storms, though confidence in the overall severe risk remains fairly low given the potential for clouds and early morning storms. Convective coverage may increase through the evening and overnight hours as a 35-45 kt southerly low-level jet develops over the Plains. CAM guidance remains quite dispersive, but some solutions show the potential for isolated severe gusts with elevated storm clusters moving eastward across the Dakotas overnight. A second cluster of elevated storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the eastern Dakotas/western MN associated with a weak shortwave trough and low-level warm advection along the stalled front. If this occurs, a low-end wind/hail threat could exist during the morning as the shortwave continues east/southeastward toward the Great Lakes. Buoyancy and ascent should decrease quickly with eastward extent suggesting only a limited severe risk. ...Four Corners... A shortwave trough and an associated belt of stronger southwesterly flow aloft will be present over portions of the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies Friday. An associated cold front will also shift eastward, impinging upon a modified monsoon air mass across northern AZ/NM into eastern UT and western/central CO. A band of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are likely be ongoing early in the period ahead of the front. While moisture content (PWATS 0.5-0.8 inches) will not be overly robust, it should be sufficient to support weak diurnal destabilization amid cloud cover and remnant showers/storms. Convection should gradually increase in coverage along the front and across the higher terrain by late morning and early afternoon. The stronger mid-level flow could allow for a few storms to organize into mutlicell clusters or weak supercells. With steep low and mid-level lapse rates present, strong gusts appear possible with any sustained storms, along with small hail. ..Lyons.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and damaging gusts are expected from eastern Montana into western North Dakota, while isolated/localized wind or marginal hail will be possible across a large portion of the Rockies. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will remain nearly stationary across the western CONUS, with axis extending from western NV into southern MB/SK. East of this trough, a broad fetch of 30-40 kt 500 mb southwesterlies will affect much of the Rockies and disturbances rounding the upper ridge into the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over much of the East, where a elongated/weak upper trough will exist. Southerly surface winds will maintain a low-level moist plume across the MO Valley with 60s F dewpoints, with 50s F into much of eastern MT where surface winds will back to southeasterly. The combination of daytime heating and substantial southwest flow aloft across a large part of the Rockies, along with at least marginal instability over a wide area suggest sporadic strong to severe storms will be possible during the afternoon and evening. ...Rockies into the northern Plains... Lapse rates will steepen over the area as heating commences, and with the 500 mb -10 C isotherm extending from SD to southern UT. By virtue of an uncapped air mass, sporadic afternoon storms are likely over the higher terrain over northwest NM, CO, and over much of ID into MT, while warm and drier air will generally be found from UT into parts of central WY. However, even in the drier areas, a few storms are likely as weak levels of instability develop. Conditionally, the entire region will have deep-layer shear at or above 35-40 kt, which will favor cellular storm mode. Small hail appears most likely over much of the Intermountain West, with locally strong gusts as well. A potentially greater severe threat will extend from eastern MT and WY into the western Dakotas, where moisture and instability will be greater. A surface low is expected over southeast MT/northwest SD, with backed/moist winds wrapping west. Forecast soundings in this area depict robust CAPE profiles and hodographs favoring cells producing hail, or perhaps bowing structures with both wind and hail risk. Storms may form over south-central MT/northern WY after 21Z, moving into the western Dakotas during the evening. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and damaging gusts are expected from eastern Montana into western North Dakota, while isolated/localized wind or marginal hail will be possible across a large portion of the Rockies. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will remain nearly stationary across the western CONUS, with axis extending from western NV into southern MB/SK. East of this trough, a broad fetch of 30-40 kt 500 mb southwesterlies will affect much of the Rockies and disturbances rounding the upper ridge into the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over much of the East, where a elongated/weak upper trough will exist. Southerly surface winds will maintain a low-level moist plume across the MO Valley with 60s F dewpoints, with 50s F into much of eastern MT where surface winds will back to southeasterly. The combination of daytime heating and substantial southwest flow aloft across a large part of the Rockies, along with at least marginal instability over a wide area suggest sporadic strong to severe storms will be possible during the afternoon and evening. ...Rockies into the northern Plains... Lapse rates will steepen over the area as heating commences, and with the 500 mb -10 C isotherm extending from SD to southern UT. By virtue of an uncapped air mass, sporadic afternoon storms are likely over the higher terrain over northwest NM, CO, and over much of ID into MT, while warm and drier air will generally be found from UT into parts of central WY. However, even in the drier areas, a few storms are likely as weak levels of instability develop. Conditionally, the entire region will have deep-layer shear at or above 35-40 kt, which will favor cellular storm mode. Small hail appears most likely over much of the Intermountain West, with locally strong gusts as well. A potentially greater severe threat will extend from eastern MT and WY into the western Dakotas, where moisture and instability will be greater. A surface low is expected over southeast MT/northwest SD, with backed/moist winds wrapping west. Forecast soundings in this area depict robust CAPE profiles and hodographs favoring cells producing hail, or perhaps bowing structures with both wind and hail risk. Storms may form over south-central MT/northern WY after 21Z, moving into the western Dakotas during the evening. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and damaging gusts are expected from eastern Montana into western North Dakota, while isolated/localized wind or marginal hail will be possible across a large portion of the Rockies. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will remain nearly stationary across the western CONUS, with axis extending from western NV into southern MB/SK. East of this trough, a broad fetch of 30-40 kt 500 mb southwesterlies will affect much of the Rockies and disturbances rounding the upper ridge into the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over much of the East, where a elongated/weak upper trough will exist. Southerly surface winds will maintain a low-level moist plume across the MO Valley with 60s F dewpoints, with 50s F into much of eastern MT where surface winds will back to southeasterly. The combination of daytime heating and substantial southwest flow aloft across a large part of the Rockies, along with at least marginal instability over a wide area suggest sporadic strong to severe storms will be possible during the afternoon and evening. ...Rockies into the northern Plains... Lapse rates will steepen over the area as heating commences, and with the 500 mb -10 C isotherm extending from SD to southern UT. By virtue of an uncapped air mass, sporadic afternoon storms are likely over the higher terrain over northwest NM, CO, and over much of ID into MT, while warm and drier air will generally be found from UT into parts of central WY. However, even in the drier areas, a few storms are likely as weak levels of instability develop. Conditionally, the entire region will have deep-layer shear at or above 35-40 kt, which will favor cellular storm mode. Small hail appears most likely over much of the Intermountain West, with locally strong gusts as well. A potentially greater severe threat will extend from eastern MT and WY into the western Dakotas, where moisture and instability will be greater. A surface low is expected over southeast MT/northwest SD, with backed/moist winds wrapping west. Forecast soundings in this area depict robust CAPE profiles and hodographs favoring cells producing hail, or perhaps bowing structures with both wind and hail risk. Storms may form over south-central MT/northern WY after 21Z, moving into the western Dakotas during the evening. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and damaging gusts are expected from eastern Montana into western North Dakota, while isolated/localized wind or marginal hail will be possible across a large portion of the Rockies. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will remain nearly stationary across the western CONUS, with axis extending from western NV into southern MB/SK. East of this trough, a broad fetch of 30-40 kt 500 mb southwesterlies will affect much of the Rockies and disturbances rounding the upper ridge into the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over much of the East, where a elongated/weak upper trough will exist. Southerly surface winds will maintain a low-level moist plume across the MO Valley with 60s F dewpoints, with 50s F into much of eastern MT where surface winds will back to southeasterly. The combination of daytime heating and substantial southwest flow aloft across a large part of the Rockies, along with at least marginal instability over a wide area suggest sporadic strong to severe storms will be possible during the afternoon and evening. ...Rockies into the northern Plains... Lapse rates will steepen over the area as heating commences, and with the 500 mb -10 C isotherm extending from SD to southern UT. By virtue of an uncapped air mass, sporadic afternoon storms are likely over the higher terrain over northwest NM, CO, and over much of ID into MT, while warm and drier air will generally be found from UT into parts of central WY. However, even in the drier areas, a few storms are likely as weak levels of instability develop. Conditionally, the entire region will have deep-layer shear at or above 35-40 kt, which will favor cellular storm mode. Small hail appears most likely over much of the Intermountain West, with locally strong gusts as well. A potentially greater severe threat will extend from eastern MT and WY into the western Dakotas, where moisture and instability will be greater. A surface low is expected over southeast MT/northwest SD, with backed/moist winds wrapping west. Forecast soundings in this area depict robust CAPE profiles and hodographs favoring cells producing hail, or perhaps bowing structures with both wind and hail risk. Storms may form over south-central MT/northern WY after 21Z, moving into the western Dakotas during the evening. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 09/11/2025 Read more

517
ABPZ20 KNHC 110513
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 10 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico are showing signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are favorable for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Thursday
as the system moves west-northwestward, roughly parallel to but
offshore of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

The County of Maui Department of Water Supply began using the backup supply for the Upcountry water system on Thursday, Sept. 11, 2025, after receiving approval by the Hawaiʻi Department of Health, Safe Drinking Water Branch to use water from Hamakuapoko Wells 1 and 2. The water from the wells was being used due to existing and projected water shortages in the Upcountry water system serving Upper and Lower Kula, Makawao, Pukalani, Hāliʻimaile and Haʻikū. The insufficient surface water flow into Piʻiholo reservoir, warmer than average temperatures and inadequate forecasted precipitation led to the decision to access the wells, according to DWS. The Upcountry water system relies heavily on surface water. Maui County, HI (Wailuku, Hawaii), Sept 10, 2025 Beginning around September 5, Maui’s Department of Water Supply will start to use water from Hamakuapoko Wells 1 and 2. This will supplement the Upcountry water system, according to the County of Maui’s website. The well water will be used because Piʻiholo Reservoir has low surface water as the area was in drought. Hoodline Honolulu (Hawaii), Aug 28, 2025

Reservoir storage levels in the Yakima Basin have fallen to their lowest since record-keeping began in 1971, leaving irrigators grappling with severe drought conditions. Junior water rights holders in the Yakima Basin were projected to receive only 40% of their estimated water allotment this year. Senior water rights holders will still receive their full allotment. As of August 1st, reservoir storage was at 39% capacity, holding just under 415,000 acre-feet of water, which is 55% of the average. KIMA-TV (Yakima, Wash.), Aug 7, 2025 Yakima River basin irrigators with junior water rights will receive 40% of their full allotments as the bureau updated its outlook on July 30 while warning that the water supply could fall as low as 35%. The next forecast update will be Aug. 7. At 40% of a full allotment, the water shortage rivals the record low 37% that supply irrigators received in 1994 and 2001. Irrigators with senior water rights that were issued before 1905 will still get 100% of their requested water, while junior water rights holders have gotten less than a full allotment for the past three summers. Capital Press (Salem, Ore.), July 31, 2025 The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation forecasted that Yakima River basin irrigators with junior water-rights would get 43% of their full water allotments, the lowest percentage in 20 years. The Reclamation Bureau will update its outlook in mid-June and projects the water supply could drop to as low as 34% of normal. Capital Press (Salem, Ore.), June 5, 2025

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible over far western Nebraska and perhaps extreme northeastern Colorado early this evening. A few storms storms will also affect parts of western Idaho into eastern Oregon during the early evening. ...Discussion... A small cluster of severe storms likely producing hail is currently affecting far western NE. These storms are within a small area of uncapped air mass, and will likely remain tied to the immediate area and perhaps affect a small portion of northeast CO before diminishing. Strong southeast surface winds/inflow will likely support the ongoing cluster for a couple hours before CIN becomes too large. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2059. Elsewhere, a band of thunderstorms continues to move northward across southwest ID and southeast OR ahead of the upper vorticity max. The 00Z BOI sounding shows steep midlevel lapse rates and marginal overall shear, and this may support gusty winds or small hail. However, the overall risk for severe storms appears low after sunset with limited instability. ..Jewell.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible over far western Nebraska and perhaps extreme northeastern Colorado early this evening. A few storms storms will also affect parts of western Idaho into eastern Oregon during the early evening. ...Discussion... A small cluster of severe storms likely producing hail is currently affecting far western NE. These storms are within a small area of uncapped air mass, and will likely remain tied to the immediate area and perhaps affect a small portion of northeast CO before diminishing. Strong southeast surface winds/inflow will likely support the ongoing cluster for a couple hours before CIN becomes too large. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2059. Elsewhere, a band of thunderstorms continues to move northward across southwest ID and southeast OR ahead of the upper vorticity max. The 00Z BOI sounding shows steep midlevel lapse rates and marginal overall shear, and this may support gusty winds or small hail. However, the overall risk for severe storms appears low after sunset with limited instability. ..Jewell.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible over far western Nebraska and perhaps extreme northeastern Colorado early this evening. A few storms storms will also affect parts of western Idaho into eastern Oregon during the early evening. ...Discussion... A small cluster of severe storms likely producing hail is currently affecting far western NE. These storms are within a small area of uncapped air mass, and will likely remain tied to the immediate area and perhaps affect a small portion of northeast CO before diminishing. Strong southeast surface winds/inflow will likely support the ongoing cluster for a couple hours before CIN becomes too large. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2059. Elsewhere, a band of thunderstorms continues to move northward across southwest ID and southeast OR ahead of the upper vorticity max. The 00Z BOI sounding shows steep midlevel lapse rates and marginal overall shear, and this may support gusty winds or small hail. However, the overall risk for severe storms appears low after sunset with limited instability. ..Jewell.. 09/11/2025 Read more

MD 2059 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST NE PANHANDLE VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 2059 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0710 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Areas affected...Southwest NE Panhandle vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 110010Z - 110145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple hours of severe hail and wind are possible with a pair of slow-moving supercells before convection weakens after dusk. DISCUSSION...Convection near the WY/NE border has consolidated into a pair of nearly stationary supercells. This recent organization appears to be in response to some strengthening of both mid-level west-southwesterlies and low-level southerlies in CYS VWP data. The latter has also supported an influx of 50-54 F surface dew points, which has aided in the supercell intensification. However, this will likely be transient/short-lived, similar to how convection had pulsed up and weaken along the south slope of the Black Hills in far southwest SD. Onset of nocturnal boundary-layer cooling and large surface temperature/dew point spreads should foster outflow-dominated cells that have pronounced weakening after dusk. ..Grams/Hart.. 09/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41820347 41570259 41080258 40790326 40900388 41170419 41650397 41820347 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Sep 10 23:40:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Sep 10 23:40:01 UTC 2025.