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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Western Utah... The slow moving upper-level trough across the western U.S. will keep a 40-50 knot mid-level jet stretched from southern California into southern Wyoming through Thursday. Daytime mixing of a dry boundary layer will support breezy southwest winds of 15-20 mph across western Utah Thursday afternoon. The elevated winds combined with daytime relative humidity of around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across western Utah. Relative humidity recoveries through tonight only in the 25-35% range will precondition finer fuels, which could support wildfire spread Thursday afternoon. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Western Utah... The slow moving upper-level trough across the western U.S. will keep a 40-50 knot mid-level jet stretched from southern California into southern Wyoming through Thursday. Daytime mixing of a dry boundary layer will support breezy southwest winds of 15-20 mph across western Utah Thursday afternoon. The elevated winds combined with daytime relative humidity of around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across western Utah. Relative humidity recoveries through tonight only in the 25-35% range will precondition finer fuels, which could support wildfire spread Thursday afternoon. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Western Utah... The slow moving upper-level trough across the western U.S. will keep a 40-50 knot mid-level jet stretched from southern California into southern Wyoming through Thursday. Daytime mixing of a dry boundary layer will support breezy southwest winds of 15-20 mph across western Utah Thursday afternoon. The elevated winds combined with daytime relative humidity of around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across western Utah. Relative humidity recoveries through tonight only in the 25-35% range will precondition finer fuels, which could support wildfire spread Thursday afternoon. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Western Utah... The slow moving upper-level trough across the western U.S. will keep a 40-50 knot mid-level jet stretched from southern California into southern Wyoming through Thursday. Daytime mixing of a dry boundary layer will support breezy southwest winds of 15-20 mph across western Utah Thursday afternoon. The elevated winds combined with daytime relative humidity of around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across western Utah. Relative humidity recoveries through tonight only in the 25-35% range will precondition finer fuels, which could support wildfire spread Thursday afternoon. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Western Utah... The slow moving upper-level trough across the western U.S. will keep a 40-50 knot mid-level jet stretched from southern California into southern Wyoming through Thursday. Daytime mixing of a dry boundary layer will support breezy southwest winds of 15-20 mph across western Utah Thursday afternoon. The elevated winds combined with daytime relative humidity of around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across western Utah. Relative humidity recoveries through tonight only in the 25-35% range will precondition finer fuels, which could support wildfire spread Thursday afternoon. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Western Utah... The slow moving upper-level trough across the western U.S. will keep a 40-50 knot mid-level jet stretched from southern California into southern Wyoming through Thursday. Daytime mixing of a dry boundary layer will support breezy southwest winds of 15-20 mph across western Utah Thursday afternoon. The elevated winds combined with daytime relative humidity of around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across western Utah. Relative humidity recoveries through tonight only in the 25-35% range will precondition finer fuels, which could support wildfire spread Thursday afternoon. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Western Utah... The slow moving upper-level trough across the western U.S. will keep a 40-50 knot mid-level jet stretched from southern California into southern Wyoming through Thursday. Daytime mixing of a dry boundary layer will support breezy southwest winds of 15-20 mph across western Utah Thursday afternoon. The elevated winds combined with daytime relative humidity of around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across western Utah. Relative humidity recoveries through tonight only in the 25-35% range will precondition finer fuels, which could support wildfire spread Thursday afternoon. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE AND GREAT BASIN/INTERIOR WEST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms could occur this afternoon and early evening across the north-central High Plains and Great Basin. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...High Plains/Front Range... As the upper ridge tends to abate/shift away, the region will begin to be influenced by the upper trough over the West. While some stronger storms could occur across a relatively broad north-south extent of the High Plains, portions of eastern Wyoming and the northern Colorado Front Range and immediately adjacent High Plains are expected to be influenced by somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies (25 kt), aside from steep lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. Low severe probabilities have been introduced for what should be an isolated/relatively marginal severe potential later this afternoon into evening. ...Great Basin/Interior West... The region will be influenced by a belt of stronger cyclonic flow aloft preceding the upper low centered over northern California. Adequate moisture, steep lapse rates, and stronger deep-layer winds could allow for some storms to produce gusty winds and small hail, mainly across central/northern Nevada into southwest Idaho. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE AND GREAT BASIN/INTERIOR WEST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms could occur this afternoon and early evening across the north-central High Plains and Great Basin. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...High Plains/Front Range... As the upper ridge tends to abate/shift away, the region will begin to be influenced by the upper trough over the West. While some stronger storms could occur across a relatively broad north-south extent of the High Plains, portions of eastern Wyoming and the northern Colorado Front Range and immediately adjacent High Plains are expected to be influenced by somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies (25 kt), aside from steep lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. Low severe probabilities have been introduced for what should be an isolated/relatively marginal severe potential later this afternoon into evening. ...Great Basin/Interior West... The region will be influenced by a belt of stronger cyclonic flow aloft preceding the upper low centered over northern California. Adequate moisture, steep lapse rates, and stronger deep-layer winds could allow for some storms to produce gusty winds and small hail, mainly across central/northern Nevada into southwest Idaho. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE AND GREAT BASIN/INTERIOR WEST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms could occur this afternoon and early evening across the north-central High Plains and Great Basin. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...High Plains/Front Range... As the upper ridge tends to abate/shift away, the region will begin to be influenced by the upper trough over the West. While some stronger storms could occur across a relatively broad north-south extent of the High Plains, portions of eastern Wyoming and the northern Colorado Front Range and immediately adjacent High Plains are expected to be influenced by somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies (25 kt), aside from steep lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. Low severe probabilities have been introduced for what should be an isolated/relatively marginal severe potential later this afternoon into evening. ...Great Basin/Interior West... The region will be influenced by a belt of stronger cyclonic flow aloft preceding the upper low centered over northern California. Adequate moisture, steep lapse rates, and stronger deep-layer winds could allow for some storms to produce gusty winds and small hail, mainly across central/northern Nevada into southwest Idaho. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE AND GREAT BASIN/INTERIOR WEST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms could occur this afternoon and early evening across the north-central High Plains and Great Basin. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...High Plains/Front Range... As the upper ridge tends to abate/shift away, the region will begin to be influenced by the upper trough over the West. While some stronger storms could occur across a relatively broad north-south extent of the High Plains, portions of eastern Wyoming and the northern Colorado Front Range and immediately adjacent High Plains are expected to be influenced by somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies (25 kt), aside from steep lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. Low severe probabilities have been introduced for what should be an isolated/relatively marginal severe potential later this afternoon into evening. ...Great Basin/Interior West... The region will be influenced by a belt of stronger cyclonic flow aloft preceding the upper low centered over northern California. Adequate moisture, steep lapse rates, and stronger deep-layer winds could allow for some storms to produce gusty winds and small hail, mainly across central/northern Nevada into southwest Idaho. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE AND GREAT BASIN/INTERIOR WEST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms could occur this afternoon and early evening across the north-central High Plains and Great Basin. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...High Plains/Front Range... As the upper ridge tends to abate/shift away, the region will begin to be influenced by the upper trough over the West. While some stronger storms could occur across a relatively broad north-south extent of the High Plains, portions of eastern Wyoming and the northern Colorado Front Range and immediately adjacent High Plains are expected to be influenced by somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies (25 kt), aside from steep lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. Low severe probabilities have been introduced for what should be an isolated/relatively marginal severe potential later this afternoon into evening. ...Great Basin/Interior West... The region will be influenced by a belt of stronger cyclonic flow aloft preceding the upper low centered over northern California. Adequate moisture, steep lapse rates, and stronger deep-layer winds could allow for some storms to produce gusty winds and small hail, mainly across central/northern Nevada into southwest Idaho. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE AND GREAT BASIN/INTERIOR WEST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms could occur this afternoon and early evening across the north-central High Plains and Great Basin. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...High Plains/Front Range... As the upper ridge tends to abate/shift away, the region will begin to be influenced by the upper trough over the West. While some stronger storms could occur across a relatively broad north-south extent of the High Plains, portions of eastern Wyoming and the northern Colorado Front Range and immediately adjacent High Plains are expected to be influenced by somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies (25 kt), aside from steep lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. Low severe probabilities have been introduced for what should be an isolated/relatively marginal severe potential later this afternoon into evening. ...Great Basin/Interior West... The region will be influenced by a belt of stronger cyclonic flow aloft preceding the upper low centered over northern California. Adequate moisture, steep lapse rates, and stronger deep-layer winds could allow for some storms to produce gusty winds and small hail, mainly across central/northern Nevada into southwest Idaho. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE AND GREAT BASIN/INTERIOR WEST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms could occur this afternoon and early evening across the north-central High Plains and Great Basin. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...High Plains/Front Range... As the upper ridge tends to abate/shift away, the region will begin to be influenced by the upper trough over the West. While some stronger storms could occur across a relatively broad north-south extent of the High Plains, portions of eastern Wyoming and the northern Colorado Front Range and immediately adjacent High Plains are expected to be influenced by somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies (25 kt), aside from steep lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. Low severe probabilities have been introduced for what should be an isolated/relatively marginal severe potential later this afternoon into evening. ...Great Basin/Interior West... The region will be influenced by a belt of stronger cyclonic flow aloft preceding the upper low centered over northern California. Adequate moisture, steep lapse rates, and stronger deep-layer winds could allow for some storms to produce gusty winds and small hail, mainly across central/northern Nevada into southwest Idaho. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE AND GREAT BASIN/INTERIOR WEST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms could occur this afternoon and early evening across the north-central High Plains and Great Basin. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...High Plains/Front Range... As the upper ridge tends to abate/shift away, the region will begin to be influenced by the upper trough over the West. While some stronger storms could occur across a relatively broad north-south extent of the High Plains, portions of eastern Wyoming and the northern Colorado Front Range and immediately adjacent High Plains are expected to be influenced by somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies (25 kt), aside from steep lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. Low severe probabilities have been introduced for what should be an isolated/relatively marginal severe potential later this afternoon into evening. ...Great Basin/Interior West... The region will be influenced by a belt of stronger cyclonic flow aloft preceding the upper low centered over northern California. Adequate moisture, steep lapse rates, and stronger deep-layer winds could allow for some storms to produce gusty winds and small hail, mainly across central/northern Nevada into southwest Idaho. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE AND GREAT BASIN/INTERIOR WEST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms could occur this afternoon and early evening across the north-central High Plains and Great Basin. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...High Plains/Front Range... As the upper ridge tends to abate/shift away, the region will begin to be influenced by the upper trough over the West. While some stronger storms could occur across a relatively broad north-south extent of the High Plains, portions of eastern Wyoming and the northern Colorado Front Range and immediately adjacent High Plains are expected to be influenced by somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies (25 kt), aside from steep lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. Low severe probabilities have been introduced for what should be an isolated/relatively marginal severe potential later this afternoon into evening. ...Great Basin/Interior West... The region will be influenced by a belt of stronger cyclonic flow aloft preceding the upper low centered over northern California. Adequate moisture, steep lapse rates, and stronger deep-layer winds could allow for some storms to produce gusty winds and small hail, mainly across central/northern Nevada into southwest Idaho. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across the Four Corners region on Friday. Additional storms are possible over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Friday morning and Friday night. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a strong trough will begin across the Intermountain West with a trough across the Plains and a trough along the East Coast. The pattern will shift slowly east through the day. At the surface, expansive high pressure will lead to fair weather across much of the eastern CONUS with a weak lee cyclone in the central/northern Plains. ...Four Corners Region... Residual moisture within the Southwest and central Rockies will result in 500 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early Friday afternoon across portions of the Southwest and into southeast Utah and western Colorado. This instability, combined with weak height falls and terrain circulations will result in widespread thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow (40 to 45 knots) will result in sufficient speed shear for some organized storm potential. While instability will be overall weak, pockets of greater instability/stronger storms may result in a few isolated supercells with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northern Plains... A cluster of storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota. If this occurs, some marginal wind/hail threat could exist during the morning before the low-level jet weakens. However, there is considerable uncertainty at this time whether ongoing convection will be in place Friday morning. Additional storm coverage uncertainty exists Friday night. Most guidance is fairly consistently showing a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet across the central Plains. Moderate instability will exist across southern South Dakota and if isentropic ascent can reach this far north, some elevated strong to isolated severe storms may be possible Friday night. However, at this time there is considerable uncertainty whether this frontal zone and the low-level jet will overlap. In addition, the low-level jet remains mostly veered Friday night which will result in relatively weak isentropic ascent. Therefore, a conditional elevated hail threat may exist across South Dakota Friday night, but storm coverage remains too uncertain at this time for probabilities. ..Bentley.. 09/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across the Four Corners region on Friday. Additional storms are possible over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Friday morning and Friday night. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a strong trough will begin across the Intermountain West with a trough across the Plains and a trough along the East Coast. The pattern will shift slowly east through the day. At the surface, expansive high pressure will lead to fair weather across much of the eastern CONUS with a weak lee cyclone in the central/northern Plains. ...Four Corners Region... Residual moisture within the Southwest and central Rockies will result in 500 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early Friday afternoon across portions of the Southwest and into southeast Utah and western Colorado. This instability, combined with weak height falls and terrain circulations will result in widespread thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow (40 to 45 knots) will result in sufficient speed shear for some organized storm potential. While instability will be overall weak, pockets of greater instability/stronger storms may result in a few isolated supercells with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northern Plains... A cluster of storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota. If this occurs, some marginal wind/hail threat could exist during the morning before the low-level jet weakens. However, there is considerable uncertainty at this time whether ongoing convection will be in place Friday morning. Additional storm coverage uncertainty exists Friday night. Most guidance is fairly consistently showing a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet across the central Plains. Moderate instability will exist across southern South Dakota and if isentropic ascent can reach this far north, some elevated strong to isolated severe storms may be possible Friday night. However, at this time there is considerable uncertainty whether this frontal zone and the low-level jet will overlap. In addition, the low-level jet remains mostly veered Friday night which will result in relatively weak isentropic ascent. Therefore, a conditional elevated hail threat may exist across South Dakota Friday night, but storm coverage remains too uncertain at this time for probabilities. ..Bentley.. 09/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across the Four Corners region on Friday. Additional storms are possible over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Friday morning and Friday night. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a strong trough will begin across the Intermountain West with a trough across the Plains and a trough along the East Coast. The pattern will shift slowly east through the day. At the surface, expansive high pressure will lead to fair weather across much of the eastern CONUS with a weak lee cyclone in the central/northern Plains. ...Four Corners Region... Residual moisture within the Southwest and central Rockies will result in 500 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early Friday afternoon across portions of the Southwest and into southeast Utah and western Colorado. This instability, combined with weak height falls and terrain circulations will result in widespread thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow (40 to 45 knots) will result in sufficient speed shear for some organized storm potential. While instability will be overall weak, pockets of greater instability/stronger storms may result in a few isolated supercells with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northern Plains... A cluster of storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota. If this occurs, some marginal wind/hail threat could exist during the morning before the low-level jet weakens. However, there is considerable uncertainty at this time whether ongoing convection will be in place Friday morning. Additional storm coverage uncertainty exists Friday night. Most guidance is fairly consistently showing a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet across the central Plains. Moderate instability will exist across southern South Dakota and if isentropic ascent can reach this far north, some elevated strong to isolated severe storms may be possible Friday night. However, at this time there is considerable uncertainty whether this frontal zone and the low-level jet will overlap. In addition, the low-level jet remains mostly veered Friday night which will result in relatively weak isentropic ascent. Therefore, a conditional elevated hail threat may exist across South Dakota Friday night, but storm coverage remains too uncertain at this time for probabilities. ..Bentley.. 09/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across the Four Corners region on Friday. Additional storms are possible over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Friday morning and Friday night. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a strong trough will begin across the Intermountain West with a trough across the Plains and a trough along the East Coast. The pattern will shift slowly east through the day. At the surface, expansive high pressure will lead to fair weather across much of the eastern CONUS with a weak lee cyclone in the central/northern Plains. ...Four Corners Region... Residual moisture within the Southwest and central Rockies will result in 500 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early Friday afternoon across portions of the Southwest and into southeast Utah and western Colorado. This instability, combined with weak height falls and terrain circulations will result in widespread thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow (40 to 45 knots) will result in sufficient speed shear for some organized storm potential. While instability will be overall weak, pockets of greater instability/stronger storms may result in a few isolated supercells with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northern Plains... A cluster of storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota. If this occurs, some marginal wind/hail threat could exist during the morning before the low-level jet weakens. However, there is considerable uncertainty at this time whether ongoing convection will be in place Friday morning. Additional storm coverage uncertainty exists Friday night. Most guidance is fairly consistently showing a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet across the central Plains. Moderate instability will exist across southern South Dakota and if isentropic ascent can reach this far north, some elevated strong to isolated severe storms may be possible Friday night. However, at this time there is considerable uncertainty whether this frontal zone and the low-level jet will overlap. In addition, the low-level jet remains mostly veered Friday night which will result in relatively weak isentropic ascent. Therefore, a conditional elevated hail threat may exist across South Dakota Friday night, but storm coverage remains too uncertain at this time for probabilities. ..Bentley.. 09/10/2025 Read more