Aggregator

964
ABPZ20 KNHC 102337
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 10 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico are showing signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are favorable for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next
day or so as the system moves west-northwestward, roughly parallel
to but offshore of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

MD 2058 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL NV INTO SOUTHWEST ID AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST OR
Mesoscale Discussion 2058 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Areas affected...Parts of north-central NV into southwest ID and extreme southeast OR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102049Z - 102245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few strong storms may develop by late afternoon. Localized strong to severe gusts and small to near-severe hail are possible. DISCUSSION...Storms are beginning to develop across parts of north-central NV this afternoon, to the east of a mid/upper-level cyclone centered over northern CA. Storm coverage is expected to increase through late afternoon, as a midlevel vorticity maximum moves across the Great Basin, along the eastern periphery of the upper cyclone. Low-level moisture is generally limited across the region, but steep midlevel lapse rates and rather cold temperatures aloft will support MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg in areas where heating continues through late afternoon. Modestly enhanced midlevel flow to the east of the upper cyclone will support a gradual increase in effective shear into the 25-35 kt range, sufficient for at least transient storm organization. While storm intensity will be tempered by the modest buoyancy, steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of strong to locally severe gusts, especially if any clustering and outflow consolidation can evolve with time. Small to near-severe hail also cannot be ruled out, given the generally cool temperature profiles and favorable lapse rates. ..Dean/Guyer.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...REV... LAT...LON 41141578 39521614 39171710 39471759 40961732 42761757 43241704 43141630 42841585 42461565 41851565 41141578 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

Corn and soybean fields in Niagara County were stressed and struggling. Thirsty crops, such as tomatoes, vine crops, leafy greens and lettuces, were most affected. Farmers were irrigating, but streams and ponds were going dry, leaving some growers to pay for hydrant access, adding both labor and expense to raising the crops. Production was down, and farmers were bringing less to market. Since production costs were higher, prices at farmers’ markets may be higher. WKBW-TV ABC 7 Buffalo (N.Y.), Sep 10, 2025

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A broad mid-level trough over the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will slowly translate eastward into the central and northern Plains by Day 5/Sunday, allowing showers and thunderstorms to shift east of the Continental Divide by early next week. Diminishing mid-level flow will reduce the fire weather threat across Utah with dry conditions persisting across much of the Desert Southwest. Farther west, a mid-level short wave and cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures and potential showers and thunderstorms into the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Sunday. A general ridging pattern from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes will support light winds and above normal temperatures over much of the Deep South/Midwest, aiding in drying fuels across the region. ...Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday... There is considerable uncertainty in the synoptic pattern next week across CONUS. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals large member spreads/variance in timing of potential short waves that could reintroduce fire weather concerns where dry fuels emerge. However, fuel indices are generally on a downward trend across the western U.S. which will mitigate overall fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and warm temperatures will continue cure/dry fuels across the Ohio River Valley and Deep South regions but generally light surface winds under high pressure will subdue fire weather threats. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A broad mid-level trough over the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will slowly translate eastward into the central and northern Plains by Day 5/Sunday, allowing showers and thunderstorms to shift east of the Continental Divide by early next week. Diminishing mid-level flow will reduce the fire weather threat across Utah with dry conditions persisting across much of the Desert Southwest. Farther west, a mid-level short wave and cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures and potential showers and thunderstorms into the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Sunday. A general ridging pattern from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes will support light winds and above normal temperatures over much of the Deep South/Midwest, aiding in drying fuels across the region. ...Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday... There is considerable uncertainty in the synoptic pattern next week across CONUS. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals large member spreads/variance in timing of potential short waves that could reintroduce fire weather concerns where dry fuels emerge. However, fuel indices are generally on a downward trend across the western U.S. which will mitigate overall fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and warm temperatures will continue cure/dry fuels across the Ohio River Valley and Deep South regions but generally light surface winds under high pressure will subdue fire weather threats. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A broad mid-level trough over the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will slowly translate eastward into the central and northern Plains by Day 5/Sunday, allowing showers and thunderstorms to shift east of the Continental Divide by early next week. Diminishing mid-level flow will reduce the fire weather threat across Utah with dry conditions persisting across much of the Desert Southwest. Farther west, a mid-level short wave and cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures and potential showers and thunderstorms into the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Sunday. A general ridging pattern from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes will support light winds and above normal temperatures over much of the Deep South/Midwest, aiding in drying fuels across the region. ...Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday... There is considerable uncertainty in the synoptic pattern next week across CONUS. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals large member spreads/variance in timing of potential short waves that could reintroduce fire weather concerns where dry fuels emerge. However, fuel indices are generally on a downward trend across the western U.S. which will mitigate overall fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and warm temperatures will continue cure/dry fuels across the Ohio River Valley and Deep South regions but generally light surface winds under high pressure will subdue fire weather threats. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A broad mid-level trough over the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will slowly translate eastward into the central and northern Plains by Day 5/Sunday, allowing showers and thunderstorms to shift east of the Continental Divide by early next week. Diminishing mid-level flow will reduce the fire weather threat across Utah with dry conditions persisting across much of the Desert Southwest. Farther west, a mid-level short wave and cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures and potential showers and thunderstorms into the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Sunday. A general ridging pattern from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes will support light winds and above normal temperatures over much of the Deep South/Midwest, aiding in drying fuels across the region. ...Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday... There is considerable uncertainty in the synoptic pattern next week across CONUS. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals large member spreads/variance in timing of potential short waves that could reintroduce fire weather concerns where dry fuels emerge. However, fuel indices are generally on a downward trend across the western U.S. which will mitigate overall fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and warm temperatures will continue cure/dry fuels across the Ohio River Valley and Deep South regions but generally light surface winds under high pressure will subdue fire weather threats. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A broad mid-level trough over the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will slowly translate eastward into the central and northern Plains by Day 5/Sunday, allowing showers and thunderstorms to shift east of the Continental Divide by early next week. Diminishing mid-level flow will reduce the fire weather threat across Utah with dry conditions persisting across much of the Desert Southwest. Farther west, a mid-level short wave and cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures and potential showers and thunderstorms into the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Sunday. A general ridging pattern from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes will support light winds and above normal temperatures over much of the Deep South/Midwest, aiding in drying fuels across the region. ...Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday... There is considerable uncertainty in the synoptic pattern next week across CONUS. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals large member spreads/variance in timing of potential short waves that could reintroduce fire weather concerns where dry fuels emerge. However, fuel indices are generally on a downward trend across the western U.S. which will mitigate overall fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and warm temperatures will continue cure/dry fuels across the Ohio River Valley and Deep South regions but generally light surface winds under high pressure will subdue fire weather threats. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A broad mid-level trough over the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will slowly translate eastward into the central and northern Plains by Day 5/Sunday, allowing showers and thunderstorms to shift east of the Continental Divide by early next week. Diminishing mid-level flow will reduce the fire weather threat across Utah with dry conditions persisting across much of the Desert Southwest. Farther west, a mid-level short wave and cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures and potential showers and thunderstorms into the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Sunday. A general ridging pattern from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes will support light winds and above normal temperatures over much of the Deep South/Midwest, aiding in drying fuels across the region. ...Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday... There is considerable uncertainty in the synoptic pattern next week across CONUS. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals large member spreads/variance in timing of potential short waves that could reintroduce fire weather concerns where dry fuels emerge. However, fuel indices are generally on a downward trend across the western U.S. which will mitigate overall fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and warm temperatures will continue cure/dry fuels across the Ohio River Valley and Deep South regions but generally light surface winds under high pressure will subdue fire weather threats. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A broad mid-level trough over the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will slowly translate eastward into the central and northern Plains by Day 5/Sunday, allowing showers and thunderstorms to shift east of the Continental Divide by early next week. Diminishing mid-level flow will reduce the fire weather threat across Utah with dry conditions persisting across much of the Desert Southwest. Farther west, a mid-level short wave and cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures and potential showers and thunderstorms into the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Sunday. A general ridging pattern from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes will support light winds and above normal temperatures over much of the Deep South/Midwest, aiding in drying fuels across the region. ...Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday... There is considerable uncertainty in the synoptic pattern next week across CONUS. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals large member spreads/variance in timing of potential short waves that could reintroduce fire weather concerns where dry fuels emerge. However, fuel indices are generally on a downward trend across the western U.S. which will mitigate overall fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and warm temperatures will continue cure/dry fuels across the Ohio River Valley and Deep South regions but generally light surface winds under high pressure will subdue fire weather threats. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A broad mid-level trough over the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will slowly translate eastward into the central and northern Plains by Day 5/Sunday, allowing showers and thunderstorms to shift east of the Continental Divide by early next week. Diminishing mid-level flow will reduce the fire weather threat across Utah with dry conditions persisting across much of the Desert Southwest. Farther west, a mid-level short wave and cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures and potential showers and thunderstorms into the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Sunday. A general ridging pattern from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes will support light winds and above normal temperatures over much of the Deep South/Midwest, aiding in drying fuels across the region. ...Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday... There is considerable uncertainty in the synoptic pattern next week across CONUS. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals large member spreads/variance in timing of potential short waves that could reintroduce fire weather concerns where dry fuels emerge. However, fuel indices are generally on a downward trend across the western U.S. which will mitigate overall fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and warm temperatures will continue cure/dry fuels across the Ohio River Valley and Deep South regions but generally light surface winds under high pressure will subdue fire weather threats. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A broad mid-level trough over the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will slowly translate eastward into the central and northern Plains by Day 5/Sunday, allowing showers and thunderstorms to shift east of the Continental Divide by early next week. Diminishing mid-level flow will reduce the fire weather threat across Utah with dry conditions persisting across much of the Desert Southwest. Farther west, a mid-level short wave and cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures and potential showers and thunderstorms into the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Sunday. A general ridging pattern from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes will support light winds and above normal temperatures over much of the Deep South/Midwest, aiding in drying fuels across the region. ...Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday... There is considerable uncertainty in the synoptic pattern next week across CONUS. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals large member spreads/variance in timing of potential short waves that could reintroduce fire weather concerns where dry fuels emerge. However, fuel indices are generally on a downward trend across the western U.S. which will mitigate overall fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and warm temperatures will continue cure/dry fuels across the Ohio River Valley and Deep South regions but generally light surface winds under high pressure will subdue fire weather threats. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A broad mid-level trough over the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will slowly translate eastward into the central and northern Plains by Day 5/Sunday, allowing showers and thunderstorms to shift east of the Continental Divide by early next week. Diminishing mid-level flow will reduce the fire weather threat across Utah with dry conditions persisting across much of the Desert Southwest. Farther west, a mid-level short wave and cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures and potential showers and thunderstorms into the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Sunday. A general ridging pattern from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes will support light winds and above normal temperatures over much of the Deep South/Midwest, aiding in drying fuels across the region. ...Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday... There is considerable uncertainty in the synoptic pattern next week across CONUS. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals large member spreads/variance in timing of potential short waves that could reintroduce fire weather concerns where dry fuels emerge. However, fuel indices are generally on a downward trend across the western U.S. which will mitigate overall fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and warm temperatures will continue cure/dry fuels across the Ohio River Valley and Deep South regions but generally light surface winds under high pressure will subdue fire weather threats. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A broad mid-level trough over the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will slowly translate eastward into the central and northern Plains by Day 5/Sunday, allowing showers and thunderstorms to shift east of the Continental Divide by early next week. Diminishing mid-level flow will reduce the fire weather threat across Utah with dry conditions persisting across much of the Desert Southwest. Farther west, a mid-level short wave and cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures and potential showers and thunderstorms into the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Sunday. A general ridging pattern from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes will support light winds and above normal temperatures over much of the Deep South/Midwest, aiding in drying fuels across the region. ...Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday... There is considerable uncertainty in the synoptic pattern next week across CONUS. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals large member spreads/variance in timing of potential short waves that could reintroduce fire weather concerns where dry fuels emerge. However, fuel indices are generally on a downward trend across the western U.S. which will mitigate overall fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and warm temperatures will continue cure/dry fuels across the Ohio River Valley and Deep South regions but generally light surface winds under high pressure will subdue fire weather threats. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Western Utah... The slow moving upper-level trough across the western U.S. will keep a 40-50 knot mid-level jet stretched from southern California into southern Wyoming through Thursday. Daytime mixing of a dry boundary layer will support breezy southwest winds of 15-20 mph across western Utah Thursday afternoon. The elevated winds combined with daytime relative humidity of around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across western Utah. Relative humidity recoveries through tonight only in the 25-35% range will precondition finer fuels, which could support wildfire spread Thursday afternoon. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Western Utah... The slow moving upper-level trough across the western U.S. will keep a 40-50 knot mid-level jet stretched from southern California into southern Wyoming through Thursday. Daytime mixing of a dry boundary layer will support breezy southwest winds of 15-20 mph across western Utah Thursday afternoon. The elevated winds combined with daytime relative humidity of around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across western Utah. Relative humidity recoveries through tonight only in the 25-35% range will precondition finer fuels, which could support wildfire spread Thursday afternoon. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Western Utah... The slow moving upper-level trough across the western U.S. will keep a 40-50 knot mid-level jet stretched from southern California into southern Wyoming through Thursday. Daytime mixing of a dry boundary layer will support breezy southwest winds of 15-20 mph across western Utah Thursday afternoon. The elevated winds combined with daytime relative humidity of around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across western Utah. Relative humidity recoveries through tonight only in the 25-35% range will precondition finer fuels, which could support wildfire spread Thursday afternoon. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Western Utah... The slow moving upper-level trough across the western U.S. will keep a 40-50 knot mid-level jet stretched from southern California into southern Wyoming through Thursday. Daytime mixing of a dry boundary layer will support breezy southwest winds of 15-20 mph across western Utah Thursday afternoon. The elevated winds combined with daytime relative humidity of around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across western Utah. Relative humidity recoveries through tonight only in the 25-35% range will precondition finer fuels, which could support wildfire spread Thursday afternoon. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Western Utah... The slow moving upper-level trough across the western U.S. will keep a 40-50 knot mid-level jet stretched from southern California into southern Wyoming through Thursday. Daytime mixing of a dry boundary layer will support breezy southwest winds of 15-20 mph across western Utah Thursday afternoon. The elevated winds combined with daytime relative humidity of around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across western Utah. Relative humidity recoveries through tonight only in the 25-35% range will precondition finer fuels, which could support wildfire spread Thursday afternoon. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Western Utah... The slow moving upper-level trough across the western U.S. will keep a 40-50 knot mid-level jet stretched from southern California into southern Wyoming through Thursday. Daytime mixing of a dry boundary layer will support breezy southwest winds of 15-20 mph across western Utah Thursday afternoon. The elevated winds combined with daytime relative humidity of around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across western Utah. Relative humidity recoveries through tonight only in the 25-35% range will precondition finer fuels, which could support wildfire spread Thursday afternoon. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more