Aggregator

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM CST Thu Sep 11 the center of Thirteen-E was located near 16.0, -99.6 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 120244 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0300 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) L CARDENAS 34 2 7( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ZIHUATANEJO 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ACAPULCO 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 47(49) 15(64) X(64) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 8(23) X(23) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 16(58) X(58) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 11(23) X(23) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 255 WTPZ23 KNHC 120242 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0300 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 99.6W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 99.6W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 99.1W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.5N 101.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.1N 103.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.6N 105.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.0N 107.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.4N 108.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.9N 109.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 20.7N 112.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 23.0N 114.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 99.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few widely spaced strong to severe storms remain possible from western Colorado into eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Isolated hail or strong gusts are possible. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening from the Canadian border southward across the Rockies, beneath moderate southwest flow aloft. 00Z soundings from GJT to GGW show moderately steep lapse rates, with 500 to 1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given little height falls overnight, most of these storms should diminish after sunset. Farther east across the northern High Plains, stronger instability exists with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg from UNR to BIS. However, minimal capping does exist. Conditionally, the environment supports large hail, though there is little focusing mechanism for any concentrated risk areas. As such, the Slight Risk has been removed, due to expected isolated nature of the cells. ..Jewell.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few widely spaced strong to severe storms remain possible from western Colorado into eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Isolated hail or strong gusts are possible. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening from the Canadian border southward across the Rockies, beneath moderate southwest flow aloft. 00Z soundings from GJT to GGW show moderately steep lapse rates, with 500 to 1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given little height falls overnight, most of these storms should diminish after sunset. Farther east across the northern High Plains, stronger instability exists with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg from UNR to BIS. However, minimal capping does exist. Conditionally, the environment supports large hail, though there is little focusing mechanism for any concentrated risk areas. As such, the Slight Risk has been removed, due to expected isolated nature of the cells. ..Jewell.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few widely spaced strong to severe storms remain possible from western Colorado into eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Isolated hail or strong gusts are possible. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening from the Canadian border southward across the Rockies, beneath moderate southwest flow aloft. 00Z soundings from GJT to GGW show moderately steep lapse rates, with 500 to 1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given little height falls overnight, most of these storms should diminish after sunset. Farther east across the northern High Plains, stronger instability exists with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg from UNR to BIS. However, minimal capping does exist. Conditionally, the environment supports large hail, though there is little focusing mechanism for any concentrated risk areas. As such, the Slight Risk has been removed, due to expected isolated nature of the cells. ..Jewell.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few widely spaced strong to severe storms remain possible from western Colorado into eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Isolated hail or strong gusts are possible. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening from the Canadian border southward across the Rockies, beneath moderate southwest flow aloft. 00Z soundings from GJT to GGW show moderately steep lapse rates, with 500 to 1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given little height falls overnight, most of these storms should diminish after sunset. Farther east across the northern High Plains, stronger instability exists with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg from UNR to BIS. However, minimal capping does exist. Conditionally, the environment supports large hail, though there is little focusing mechanism for any concentrated risk areas. As such, the Slight Risk has been removed, due to expected isolated nature of the cells. ..Jewell.. 09/12/2025 Read more

984
ABPZ20 KNHC 112312
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 11 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
newly-formed Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, located just offshore
of the coast of southern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 11 22:46:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 11 22:46:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Day 3-5/Saturday-Monday... A mid-level trough across the Intermountain West will pivot northeastward into the Central and Northern Plains in the Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday period, shifting the bulk of shower and thunderstorm activity east of the Rockies. Higher forecast confidence now exists in a positively tilted mid-level short wave trough entering the Northwest on Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday after a brief warm and dry day on Day 3/Saturday. Cooler temperatures behind an associated cold front, influx of Pacific moisture and precipitation will mitigate fire weather concerns for the Pacific Northwest through Day 5/Monday. Meanwhile ridging across the Southern Plains into the Midwest will support dry conditions and well above normal temperatures through the weekend. ...Day 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday... Ridging will quickly build over the Pacific Northwest along with the development of a coastal thermal trough by Day 6/Tuesday. An offshore pressure gradient will support a drier east/northeast flow west of the Cascades on Tuesday. However, recent moisture and expected preceding rainfall along and west of the Cascades on Day 4/Sunday should lower fire weather concerns overall in advance of the potential offshore wind event. High pressure will continue to promote above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions across much of the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through the Day 8/Thursday period, further drying fuels across the region. ..Williams.. 09/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Day 3-5/Saturday-Monday... A mid-level trough across the Intermountain West will pivot northeastward into the Central and Northern Plains in the Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday period, shifting the bulk of shower and thunderstorm activity east of the Rockies. Higher forecast confidence now exists in a positively tilted mid-level short wave trough entering the Northwest on Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday after a brief warm and dry day on Day 3/Saturday. Cooler temperatures behind an associated cold front, influx of Pacific moisture and precipitation will mitigate fire weather concerns for the Pacific Northwest through Day 5/Monday. Meanwhile ridging across the Southern Plains into the Midwest will support dry conditions and well above normal temperatures through the weekend. ...Day 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday... Ridging will quickly build over the Pacific Northwest along with the development of a coastal thermal trough by Day 6/Tuesday. An offshore pressure gradient will support a drier east/northeast flow west of the Cascades on Tuesday. However, recent moisture and expected preceding rainfall along and west of the Cascades on Day 4/Sunday should lower fire weather concerns overall in advance of the potential offshore wind event. High pressure will continue to promote above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions across much of the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through the Day 8/Thursday period, further drying fuels across the region. ..Williams.. 09/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Day 3-5/Saturday-Monday... A mid-level trough across the Intermountain West will pivot northeastward into the Central and Northern Plains in the Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday period, shifting the bulk of shower and thunderstorm activity east of the Rockies. Higher forecast confidence now exists in a positively tilted mid-level short wave trough entering the Northwest on Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday after a brief warm and dry day on Day 3/Saturday. Cooler temperatures behind an associated cold front, influx of Pacific moisture and precipitation will mitigate fire weather concerns for the Pacific Northwest through Day 5/Monday. Meanwhile ridging across the Southern Plains into the Midwest will support dry conditions and well above normal temperatures through the weekend. ...Day 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday... Ridging will quickly build over the Pacific Northwest along with the development of a coastal thermal trough by Day 6/Tuesday. An offshore pressure gradient will support a drier east/northeast flow west of the Cascades on Tuesday. However, recent moisture and expected preceding rainfall along and west of the Cascades on Day 4/Sunday should lower fire weather concerns overall in advance of the potential offshore wind event. High pressure will continue to promote above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions across much of the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through the Day 8/Thursday period, further drying fuels across the region. ..Williams.. 09/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Day 3-5/Saturday-Monday... A mid-level trough across the Intermountain West will pivot northeastward into the Central and Northern Plains in the Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday period, shifting the bulk of shower and thunderstorm activity east of the Rockies. Higher forecast confidence now exists in a positively tilted mid-level short wave trough entering the Northwest on Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday after a brief warm and dry day on Day 3/Saturday. Cooler temperatures behind an associated cold front, influx of Pacific moisture and precipitation will mitigate fire weather concerns for the Pacific Northwest through Day 5/Monday. Meanwhile ridging across the Southern Plains into the Midwest will support dry conditions and well above normal temperatures through the weekend. ...Day 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday... Ridging will quickly build over the Pacific Northwest along with the development of a coastal thermal trough by Day 6/Tuesday. An offshore pressure gradient will support a drier east/northeast flow west of the Cascades on Tuesday. However, recent moisture and expected preceding rainfall along and west of the Cascades on Day 4/Sunday should lower fire weather concerns overall in advance of the potential offshore wind event. High pressure will continue to promote above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions across much of the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through the Day 8/Thursday period, further drying fuels across the region. ..Williams.. 09/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2060 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN SD/NE...FAR EASTERN WY...NORTHEAST CO
Mesoscale Discussion 2060 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Areas affected...Parts of western SD/NE...far eastern WY...northeast CO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 112047Z - 112245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Storm development is underway this afternoon across parts of the CO Front Range into southeast WY. Farther north, strong heating has occurred from parts of the NE Panhandle into western SD. The strongest instability resides across parts of western SD, where the 18Z UNR sounding (modified for recent surface observations) depicts steep tropospheric lapse rates and MLCAPE above 2000 J/kg. Effective shear of 30-40 kt across this area is favorable for organized convection, though coverage of storms remains somewhat uncertain in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent. Any storm that can mature within this environment could pose a threat for both severe hail and wind, given the favorable lapse rates. Farther south, there is some potential for ongoing convection to intensify as it moves eastward into a somewhat more moist and unstable environment across northeast CO into the NE Panhandle, though MLCINH also increases with eastward extent. Sufficient deep-layer shear will support some potential for organized storms, including potential for isolated severe hail/wind. ..Dean/Guyer.. 09/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41020485 44830410 45740373 45780268 45820193 44360178 42660196 41670209 41040223 40040284 39630341 39580374 39540424 39640462 40160471 41020485 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 11 Sep 2025 20:34:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 11 Sep 2025 21:22:08 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 11 Sep 2025 20:34:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 11 Sep 2025 20:34:37 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Sep 11 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 112033 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 300 PM CST Thu Sep 11 2025 High resolution GOES visible satellite imagery throughout today indicates that the disturbance south of Mexico has become better organized. The system has a partially exposed low-level circulation located near an area of bursting deep convection with cloud top temperatures of less than -80 degrees C. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are T2.5 and T2.0, respectively. Therefore, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression is moving at an uncertain 300/5 kt. A mid-level ridge to centered over northern Mexico and Texas should steer the cyclone west-northwestward with an acceleration in forward speed during the next few days. Over the weekend, the system should turn more northwestward as it rounds the periphery of the ridge and continue that motion through the end of the forecast period. There is little cross-track variance in the guidance envelope, however, a bit more of an along-track spread. The official track forecast lies between the various consensus aids and the Google DeepMind guidance. The new cyclone has a rather small circulation. In the next couple of days, global models suggest vertical wind shear and the proximity to land should limit the system's ability to strengthen. By the weekend, environment conditions should become more conducive for steady strengthening. The depression is forecast to reach tropical storm strength in a day or so and become a hurricane by day 3. Late in the forecast period, cooler sea surface temperatures and dry mid-level humidities should induce a weakening trend. The initial NHC intensity forecast lies on the higher end of the intensity guidance envelope. Predicted tropical-storm-force winds are expected to remain offshore of the coast of Mexico. However, heavy rains and potentially gusty winds are possible along portions of the southern coast of Mexico during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 15.5N 98.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 16.1N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 16.7N 102.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 17.3N 104.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 17.7N 106.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 18.2N 107.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 18.6N 109.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 20.0N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 22.1N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 11 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 112032 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 2100 UTC THU SEP 11 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) L CARDENAS 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 100W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 27(56) 1(57) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 1(19) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 27(49) 1(50) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Sep 11 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 112031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 300 PM CST Thu Sep 11 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 98.8W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen-E was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 98.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm in a day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Thirteen-E will lead to rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts of 6 inches, across southwest Mexico through Sunday. This brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. WIND: Gusty winds are possible over portions of the southern coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado through Manzanillo during the next day or so. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Pasch