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MD 2068 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2068 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0601 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Areas affected...northeast Wyoming into western South Dakota and southwest North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 122301Z - 130130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage this evening, with strong wind gusts in addition to sporadic large hail. Trends are being monitored for watch potential. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered cells, some with hail, persist this evening over parts of MT, WY, and the Dakotas, where peak heating has led to an uncapped air mass and moderate instability. Thus far, clusters of cells have been slow moving. However, a gradual uptick in coverage has been noted recently over northeast WY, western SD and now into south-central ND. Also of note is an apparent outflow surge associated with a larger area of convection over east-central WY. Indications are that new cell development may keep developing along the leading edge of the outflow/baroclinic zone as it pushes northeastward across northeast WY, southeast MT, and the western Dakota through the evening. Such a propagating storm regime could result in an increased wind risk, specially as the activity interacts with an increasingly moist/unstable air mass to the northeast. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 44160672 45880482 46250406 46920201 46920104 46770055 46520033 46200042 45740103 44020176 43480215 43140289 43010407 43170493 43670641 44160672 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

Hollis fruit farm workers drove around checking the irrigation equipment for leaks and checking valves. Due to the drought, irrigation continued almost around the clock. By September 4, some of the farm’s irrigation ponds had become too low to use. With a limited water supply, irrigation water was taken off of some crops in favor of directing the water to the apple trees to make sure that the apples got enough. New Hampshire Bulletin (Concord, N.H.), Sep 8, 2025

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Sep 12 22:23:01 UTC 2025.

The grass in Kennebec County has not grown in weeks due to the absence of rain. A dairy farmer can typically grow enough to feed the cattle and dairy cows, and there is usually extra hay to store for winter or sell to other farms, but this year, he has had to buy hay. The first week of September he bought two tractor loads of hay from New York for $15,000. He may have to purchase more. Grass in Somerset County was so short that a farmer put out hay for his livestock in case there was not enough fresh grass. The grass was just a couple of inches high when it ought to be about knee high. Maine Public (Bangor, Maine), Sep 12, 2025

MD 2067 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL MONTANA INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2067 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Areas affected...central Montana into northeastern Wyoming and far western South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 121932Z - 122200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected to continue across the high terrain and adjacent areas in central Montana, northeastern Wyoming, and far western South Dakota. An isolated wind and hail risk will be possible before more widespread severe storms develop this evening. DISCUSSION...A couple of areas of thunderstorm development are noted near the Big Horns in Wyoming, central Montana mountains, and near the Black Hills in South Dakota. The more prominent upper-level forcing for ascent remains across portions of AZ/CO, which will likely keep the risk somewhat initially isolated and tied to the terrain. Given the weakening MLCIN and heating/destabilization amid deep layer shear around 30-40 kts, these thunderstorms will be capable of a few instances of strong to severe wind and marginally severe hail. As the upper-level wave approaches this evening, further cooling aloft and forcing for ascent should promote more broader scale air mass destabilization, increasing shear, and increase in thunderstorm activity moving off the terrain posing an increased risk for large hail and damaging wind. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... LAT...LON 46121051 47181056 48970846 48870574 43810321 43050395 43180562 46121051 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 2066 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN UTAH AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 2066 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Utah and adjacent portions of western Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121924Z - 122200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms posing an isolated threat of hail and damaging winds will continue through the afternoon across the area. DISCUSSION...A narrow axis of clearing and destabilization has developed across the area. As a result, storms have reinvigorated across eastern Utah ahead of a midlevel impulse swinging north-northeastward across the southern Great Basin. While instability is limited (~500 J/kg MLCAPE), strong deep-layer shear (over 50 knots per 18Z GJT sounding) and forcing for ascent are aiding in storm organization. Furthermore, long, straight hodographs will favor storm splitting. Consequently, large hail and damaging winds may be possible from the strongest storms this afternoon. The severe threat is expected to be too isolated to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Jirak/Guyer.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC... LAT...LON 37221013 38931024 40110983 40370934 40370892 40290870 40020842 39040842 38270837 37240876 37080928 37221013 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Pacific Northwest... A mid-level trough and attendant cold front entering Washington/Oregon Coast on Day 3/Sunday will usher in a cooler, moist air mass as well as wetting rains to portions of the Pacific Northwest. A quick eastward translation of the trough commences Sunday night into Day 4/Monday with an amplifying mid-level ridge building over the region through Monday night. Surface high pressure settling into the Northern Rockies and development of thermal trough along the coast will promote a dry, offshore flow across the Cascades, including poor to moderate overnight RH recoveries, early in the Day 5/Tuesday period. Expected rainfall across the Cascades on Day 3/Sunday as well as lack of very dry fuels could mitigate overall impact of this offshore wind event. ...California and Southwest... The cold front associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will bring dry, north/northeast flow to the Sacramento Valley Sunday night into Day 4/Monday but lack of drier fuels should lessen fire weather impact of wind event. Residual moisture from tropical storm Mario could bring showers and thunderstorms, including high-based thunderstorms on the periphery of deeper subtropical moisture, into portions of southern California and the Southwest late next week (Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday). However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of the moisture plume and subdued fuel receptiveness precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ...Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley... Hot and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through much of next week. Primary impact will be continued drying of fuels, where ERC values in some areas reach into 80-90th percentile. However, generally light winds attributed to weak pressure gradients will keep fire weather concerns somewhat benign through the middle of next week. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Pacific Northwest... A mid-level trough and attendant cold front entering Washington/Oregon Coast on Day 3/Sunday will usher in a cooler, moist air mass as well as wetting rains to portions of the Pacific Northwest. A quick eastward translation of the trough commences Sunday night into Day 4/Monday with an amplifying mid-level ridge building over the region through Monday night. Surface high pressure settling into the Northern Rockies and development of thermal trough along the coast will promote a dry, offshore flow across the Cascades, including poor to moderate overnight RH recoveries, early in the Day 5/Tuesday period. Expected rainfall across the Cascades on Day 3/Sunday as well as lack of very dry fuels could mitigate overall impact of this offshore wind event. ...California and Southwest... The cold front associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will bring dry, north/northeast flow to the Sacramento Valley Sunday night into Day 4/Monday but lack of drier fuels should lessen fire weather impact of wind event. Residual moisture from tropical storm Mario could bring showers and thunderstorms, including high-based thunderstorms on the periphery of deeper subtropical moisture, into portions of southern California and the Southwest late next week (Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday). However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of the moisture plume and subdued fuel receptiveness precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ...Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley... Hot and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through much of next week. Primary impact will be continued drying of fuels, where ERC values in some areas reach into 80-90th percentile. However, generally light winds attributed to weak pressure gradients will keep fire weather concerns somewhat benign through the middle of next week. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Pacific Northwest... A mid-level trough and attendant cold front entering Washington/Oregon Coast on Day 3/Sunday will usher in a cooler, moist air mass as well as wetting rains to portions of the Pacific Northwest. A quick eastward translation of the trough commences Sunday night into Day 4/Monday with an amplifying mid-level ridge building over the region through Monday night. Surface high pressure settling into the Northern Rockies and development of thermal trough along the coast will promote a dry, offshore flow across the Cascades, including poor to moderate overnight RH recoveries, early in the Day 5/Tuesday period. Expected rainfall across the Cascades on Day 3/Sunday as well as lack of very dry fuels could mitigate overall impact of this offshore wind event. ...California and Southwest... The cold front associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will bring dry, north/northeast flow to the Sacramento Valley Sunday night into Day 4/Monday but lack of drier fuels should lessen fire weather impact of wind event. Residual moisture from tropical storm Mario could bring showers and thunderstorms, including high-based thunderstorms on the periphery of deeper subtropical moisture, into portions of southern California and the Southwest late next week (Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday). However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of the moisture plume and subdued fuel receptiveness precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ...Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley... Hot and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through much of next week. Primary impact will be continued drying of fuels, where ERC values in some areas reach into 80-90th percentile. However, generally light winds attributed to weak pressure gradients will keep fire weather concerns somewhat benign through the middle of next week. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Pacific Northwest... A mid-level trough and attendant cold front entering Washington/Oregon Coast on Day 3/Sunday will usher in a cooler, moist air mass as well as wetting rains to portions of the Pacific Northwest. A quick eastward translation of the trough commences Sunday night into Day 4/Monday with an amplifying mid-level ridge building over the region through Monday night. Surface high pressure settling into the Northern Rockies and development of thermal trough along the coast will promote a dry, offshore flow across the Cascades, including poor to moderate overnight RH recoveries, early in the Day 5/Tuesday period. Expected rainfall across the Cascades on Day 3/Sunday as well as lack of very dry fuels could mitigate overall impact of this offshore wind event. ...California and Southwest... The cold front associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will bring dry, north/northeast flow to the Sacramento Valley Sunday night into Day 4/Monday but lack of drier fuels should lessen fire weather impact of wind event. Residual moisture from tropical storm Mario could bring showers and thunderstorms, including high-based thunderstorms on the periphery of deeper subtropical moisture, into portions of southern California and the Southwest late next week (Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday). However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of the moisture plume and subdued fuel receptiveness precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ...Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley... Hot and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through much of next week. Primary impact will be continued drying of fuels, where ERC values in some areas reach into 80-90th percentile. However, generally light winds attributed to weak pressure gradients will keep fire weather concerns somewhat benign through the middle of next week. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Pacific Northwest... A mid-level trough and attendant cold front entering Washington/Oregon Coast on Day 3/Sunday will usher in a cooler, moist air mass as well as wetting rains to portions of the Pacific Northwest. A quick eastward translation of the trough commences Sunday night into Day 4/Monday with an amplifying mid-level ridge building over the region through Monday night. Surface high pressure settling into the Northern Rockies and development of thermal trough along the coast will promote a dry, offshore flow across the Cascades, including poor to moderate overnight RH recoveries, early in the Day 5/Tuesday period. Expected rainfall across the Cascades on Day 3/Sunday as well as lack of very dry fuels could mitigate overall impact of this offshore wind event. ...California and Southwest... The cold front associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will bring dry, north/northeast flow to the Sacramento Valley Sunday night into Day 4/Monday but lack of drier fuels should lessen fire weather impact of wind event. Residual moisture from tropical storm Mario could bring showers and thunderstorms, including high-based thunderstorms on the periphery of deeper subtropical moisture, into portions of southern California and the Southwest late next week (Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday). However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of the moisture plume and subdued fuel receptiveness precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ...Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley... Hot and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through much of next week. Primary impact will be continued drying of fuels, where ERC values in some areas reach into 80-90th percentile. However, generally light winds attributed to weak pressure gradients will keep fire weather concerns somewhat benign through the middle of next week. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Pacific Northwest... A mid-level trough and attendant cold front entering Washington/Oregon Coast on Day 3/Sunday will usher in a cooler, moist air mass as well as wetting rains to portions of the Pacific Northwest. A quick eastward translation of the trough commences Sunday night into Day 4/Monday with an amplifying mid-level ridge building over the region through Monday night. Surface high pressure settling into the Northern Rockies and development of thermal trough along the coast will promote a dry, offshore flow across the Cascades, including poor to moderate overnight RH recoveries, early in the Day 5/Tuesday period. Expected rainfall across the Cascades on Day 3/Sunday as well as lack of very dry fuels could mitigate overall impact of this offshore wind event. ...California and Southwest... The cold front associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will bring dry, north/northeast flow to the Sacramento Valley Sunday night into Day 4/Monday but lack of drier fuels should lessen fire weather impact of wind event. Residual moisture from tropical storm Mario could bring showers and thunderstorms, including high-based thunderstorms on the periphery of deeper subtropical moisture, into portions of southern California and the Southwest late next week (Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday). However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of the moisture plume and subdued fuel receptiveness precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ...Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley... Hot and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through much of next week. Primary impact will be continued drying of fuels, where ERC values in some areas reach into 80-90th percentile. However, generally light winds attributed to weak pressure gradients will keep fire weather concerns somewhat benign through the middle of next week. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Pacific Northwest... A mid-level trough and attendant cold front entering Washington/Oregon Coast on Day 3/Sunday will usher in a cooler, moist air mass as well as wetting rains to portions of the Pacific Northwest. A quick eastward translation of the trough commences Sunday night into Day 4/Monday with an amplifying mid-level ridge building over the region through Monday night. Surface high pressure settling into the Northern Rockies and development of thermal trough along the coast will promote a dry, offshore flow across the Cascades, including poor to moderate overnight RH recoveries, early in the Day 5/Tuesday period. Expected rainfall across the Cascades on Day 3/Sunday as well as lack of very dry fuels could mitigate overall impact of this offshore wind event. ...California and Southwest... The cold front associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will bring dry, north/northeast flow to the Sacramento Valley Sunday night into Day 4/Monday but lack of drier fuels should lessen fire weather impact of wind event. Residual moisture from tropical storm Mario could bring showers and thunderstorms, including high-based thunderstorms on the periphery of deeper subtropical moisture, into portions of southern California and the Southwest late next week (Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday). However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of the moisture plume and subdued fuel receptiveness precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ...Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley... Hot and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through much of next week. Primary impact will be continued drying of fuels, where ERC values in some areas reach into 80-90th percentile. However, generally light winds attributed to weak pressure gradients will keep fire weather concerns somewhat benign through the middle of next week. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Pacific Northwest... A mid-level trough and attendant cold front entering Washington/Oregon Coast on Day 3/Sunday will usher in a cooler, moist air mass as well as wetting rains to portions of the Pacific Northwest. A quick eastward translation of the trough commences Sunday night into Day 4/Monday with an amplifying mid-level ridge building over the region through Monday night. Surface high pressure settling into the Northern Rockies and development of thermal trough along the coast will promote a dry, offshore flow across the Cascades, including poor to moderate overnight RH recoveries, early in the Day 5/Tuesday period. Expected rainfall across the Cascades on Day 3/Sunday as well as lack of very dry fuels could mitigate overall impact of this offshore wind event. ...California and Southwest... The cold front associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will bring dry, north/northeast flow to the Sacramento Valley Sunday night into Day 4/Monday but lack of drier fuels should lessen fire weather impact of wind event. Residual moisture from tropical storm Mario could bring showers and thunderstorms, including high-based thunderstorms on the periphery of deeper subtropical moisture, into portions of southern California and the Southwest late next week (Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday). However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of the moisture plume and subdued fuel receptiveness precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ...Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley... Hot and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through much of next week. Primary impact will be continued drying of fuels, where ERC values in some areas reach into 80-90th percentile. However, generally light winds attributed to weak pressure gradients will keep fire weather concerns somewhat benign through the middle of next week. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Pacific Northwest... A mid-level trough and attendant cold front entering Washington/Oregon Coast on Day 3/Sunday will usher in a cooler, moist air mass as well as wetting rains to portions of the Pacific Northwest. A quick eastward translation of the trough commences Sunday night into Day 4/Monday with an amplifying mid-level ridge building over the region through Monday night. Surface high pressure settling into the Northern Rockies and development of thermal trough along the coast will promote a dry, offshore flow across the Cascades, including poor to moderate overnight RH recoveries, early in the Day 5/Tuesday period. Expected rainfall across the Cascades on Day 3/Sunday as well as lack of very dry fuels could mitigate overall impact of this offshore wind event. ...California and Southwest... The cold front associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will bring dry, north/northeast flow to the Sacramento Valley Sunday night into Day 4/Monday but lack of drier fuels should lessen fire weather impact of wind event. Residual moisture from tropical storm Mario could bring showers and thunderstorms, including high-based thunderstorms on the periphery of deeper subtropical moisture, into portions of southern California and the Southwest late next week (Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday). However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of the moisture plume and subdued fuel receptiveness precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ...Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley... Hot and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through much of next week. Primary impact will be continued drying of fuels, where ERC values in some areas reach into 80-90th percentile. However, generally light winds attributed to weak pressure gradients will keep fire weather concerns somewhat benign through the middle of next week. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Pacific Northwest... A mid-level trough and attendant cold front entering Washington/Oregon Coast on Day 3/Sunday will usher in a cooler, moist air mass as well as wetting rains to portions of the Pacific Northwest. A quick eastward translation of the trough commences Sunday night into Day 4/Monday with an amplifying mid-level ridge building over the region through Monday night. Surface high pressure settling into the Northern Rockies and development of thermal trough along the coast will promote a dry, offshore flow across the Cascades, including poor to moderate overnight RH recoveries, early in the Day 5/Tuesday period. Expected rainfall across the Cascades on Day 3/Sunday as well as lack of very dry fuels could mitigate overall impact of this offshore wind event. ...California and Southwest... The cold front associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will bring dry, north/northeast flow to the Sacramento Valley Sunday night into Day 4/Monday but lack of drier fuels should lessen fire weather impact of wind event. Residual moisture from tropical storm Mario could bring showers and thunderstorms, including high-based thunderstorms on the periphery of deeper subtropical moisture, into portions of southern California and the Southwest late next week (Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday). However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of the moisture plume and subdued fuel receptiveness precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ...Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley... Hot and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through much of next week. Primary impact will be continued drying of fuels, where ERC values in some areas reach into 80-90th percentile. However, generally light winds attributed to weak pressure gradients will keep fire weather concerns somewhat benign through the middle of next week. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Rain in the spring in Vermont kept honey bees from pollinating apple and plum trees well, but drought was the biggest wild card, according to an apple grower in Newport. An apple grower in Cabot reported that his Gala crop was a bit withered due to drought. NHPR (Concord, N.H.), Sep 12, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 20:35:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 21:22:11 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 20:35:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 20:35:44 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 122034 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 300 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 Mario continues to parallel the coast of southwestern Mexico. An afternoon scatterometer pass showed that Mario is still located just off the coast, with deep convection periodically forming near the low-level center and being sheared off to the west. Peak wind vectors from the ASCAT pass were only 25 kt, however, the instrument is likely unable to resolve Mario's peak winds due to the small size of the storm. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, closest to the TAFB Dvorak estimate of T2.5. Numerical models are still struggling to forecast Mario due to the storm's tiny circulation and proximity to the Mexican coastline. The European global model, Google DeepMind, and their ensembles generally show the system either moving inland or opening into a trough just offshore later today. Of the systems that maintain Mario for longer into the forecast period, the intensity guidance envelope has trended downward this cycle. Moderate vertical wind shear is expected to plague the system for the next day or so, which should limit any strengthening. If Mario can survive this stage, the environmental conditions are forecast to briefly become more conducive for some gradual intensification early next week. By the end of the forecast period, cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear should quickly weaken and dissipate the small system. Based on the latest guidance, the NHC intensity forecast now shows Mario becoming a post-tropical cyclone by day 4 and dissipating by day 5. Mario continues to move west-northwestward at an estimated 12 kt, moving roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. A mid-level ridge to the north is expected to keep Mario on a west-northwestward trajectory, but at a slower forward motion, through the end of the forecast period. The models that maintain Mario's circulation are general well clustered, and only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast. Given Mario's very close proximity to the coast of Mexico, there is a Tropical Storm Watch in effect for a small segment of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Mario will impact Jalisco and nearby areas into Saturday morning, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast of Michoacan today while Mario moves roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gusty winds are possible elsewhere along the coasts of western Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through tonight. Interests in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Mario. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 17.4N 102.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 17.8N 104.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 19.0N 107.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 19.9N 110.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 20.3N 111.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 21.3N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci