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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Sep 2025 06:00:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Sep 2025 06:00:51 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Sep 2025 06:00:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Sep 2025 06:00:51 GMT

Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Sep 13 2025 099 WTPZ43 KNHC 130559 TCDEP3 Remnants Of Mario Special Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 1200 AM CST Sat Sep 13 2025 Recent ASCAT-C wind data and proxy-visible satellite images indicate that Mario no longer has a well-defined circulation center and has degenerated into a surface trough offshore of southwestern Mexico. Therefore, this is the final NHC advisory on the system. The remnants of Mario are forecast to become absorbed within a broader circulation to the southwest during the next couple of days. For additional information, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0600Z 18.3N 105.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0600 UTC SAT SEP 13 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 130557 PWSEP3 REMNANTS OF MARIO SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0600 UTC SAT SEP 13 2025 AT 0600Z THE REMNANTS OF MARIO WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS... 30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 130557
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Sep 12 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on the
remnants of Mario, located just offshore of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could develop well offshore of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico early next week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
thereafter, as the low tracks westward to west-northwestward around
10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South and Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system as it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Reinhart

Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Sep 13 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 130556 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Remnants Of Mario Special Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 1200 AM CST Sat Sep 13 2025 ...MARIO IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 105.3W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the remnants of Mario were located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 105.3 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue overnight. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The remnants of Mario will lead to additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches for Jalisco, with storm total amounts up to 6 inches locally through this morning. This brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...MARIO IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... As of 12:00 AM CST Sat Sep 13 the center of Mario was located near 18.3, -105.3 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 0600 UTC SAT SEP 13 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 130555 TCMEP3 REMNANTS OF MARIO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0600 UTC SAT SEP 13 2025 REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 105.3W AT 13/0600Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 105.3W AT 13/0600Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 105.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER REINHART

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Plains into the southern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday). ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough will pivot northward across the central/northern Plains, around broader cyclonic flow aloft, as a second upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Sunday). A surface low will develop and intensify while drifting northward across the Dakotas through the forecast period. Strengthening of the low will encourage the development of a southerly low-level jet, which will result in both northward moisture advection, and increased vertical wind shear, to support at least isolated severe storms across the Plains. ...Great Plains States... Widespread clouds and precipitation may be underway at the start of the period (12Z Sunday) given the warm-air advection regime in place ahead of the surface low. Through the day, some breaks in the cloud cover will support adequate insolation to generate surface-based buoyancy ahead of a confluence boundary. Surface temperatures may rise into the 70s F, amid 60+ f dewpoints, yielding 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in spots. However, mid-level lapse rates are expected to be modest at best (e.g. 6-7 C/km), with the aforementioned MLCAPE constrained to tall, thin profiles. However, 20-40 kt southerly flow at 850 mb (driven by the low-level jet), overspread by 40-50 kts of south-southwesterly 500 mb flow, will yield elongated, mainly straight hodographs across the central/northern Plains. Effective bulk shear of 35-45 kts is possible from NE northward, with weaker values, but relatively more curved hodographs possible farther south into the southern High Plains. By afternoon peak heating, the rejuvenation of warm-sector convection ahead of the confluence band is likely, with scattered multicells and perhaps supercells possible from the Dakotas to the TX Panhandle. Storms will first develop across the northern Plains by early afternoon, with gradual southward development likely by early evening. Given modest lapse rates/thin CAPE profiles amid straight hodographs, the severe threat appears relatively isolated, with occasional severe gusts/hail the main threats. A tornado is possible over the northern Plains if a supercell can become sustained within the low-level jet axis and traverse a corridor of locally stronger surface-based buoyancy. The severe threat should gradually wane after dark, when surface-based buoyancy diminishes with nocturnal cooling and increased MLCINH. ..Squitieri.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Plains into the southern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday). ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough will pivot northward across the central/northern Plains, around broader cyclonic flow aloft, as a second upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Sunday). A surface low will develop and intensify while drifting northward across the Dakotas through the forecast period. Strengthening of the low will encourage the development of a southerly low-level jet, which will result in both northward moisture advection, and increased vertical wind shear, to support at least isolated severe storms across the Plains. ...Great Plains States... Widespread clouds and precipitation may be underway at the start of the period (12Z Sunday) given the warm-air advection regime in place ahead of the surface low. Through the day, some breaks in the cloud cover will support adequate insolation to generate surface-based buoyancy ahead of a confluence boundary. Surface temperatures may rise into the 70s F, amid 60+ f dewpoints, yielding 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in spots. However, mid-level lapse rates are expected to be modest at best (e.g. 6-7 C/km), with the aforementioned MLCAPE constrained to tall, thin profiles. However, 20-40 kt southerly flow at 850 mb (driven by the low-level jet), overspread by 40-50 kts of south-southwesterly 500 mb flow, will yield elongated, mainly straight hodographs across the central/northern Plains. Effective bulk shear of 35-45 kts is possible from NE northward, with weaker values, but relatively more curved hodographs possible farther south into the southern High Plains. By afternoon peak heating, the rejuvenation of warm-sector convection ahead of the confluence band is likely, with scattered multicells and perhaps supercells possible from the Dakotas to the TX Panhandle. Storms will first develop across the northern Plains by early afternoon, with gradual southward development likely by early evening. Given modest lapse rates/thin CAPE profiles amid straight hodographs, the severe threat appears relatively isolated, with occasional severe gusts/hail the main threats. A tornado is possible over the northern Plains if a supercell can become sustained within the low-level jet axis and traverse a corridor of locally stronger surface-based buoyancy. The severe threat should gradually wane after dark, when surface-based buoyancy diminishes with nocturnal cooling and increased MLCINH. ..Squitieri.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Plains into the southern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday). ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough will pivot northward across the central/northern Plains, around broader cyclonic flow aloft, as a second upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Sunday). A surface low will develop and intensify while drifting northward across the Dakotas through the forecast period. Strengthening of the low will encourage the development of a southerly low-level jet, which will result in both northward moisture advection, and increased vertical wind shear, to support at least isolated severe storms across the Plains. ...Great Plains States... Widespread clouds and precipitation may be underway at the start of the period (12Z Sunday) given the warm-air advection regime in place ahead of the surface low. Through the day, some breaks in the cloud cover will support adequate insolation to generate surface-based buoyancy ahead of a confluence boundary. Surface temperatures may rise into the 70s F, amid 60+ f dewpoints, yielding 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in spots. However, mid-level lapse rates are expected to be modest at best (e.g. 6-7 C/km), with the aforementioned MLCAPE constrained to tall, thin profiles. However, 20-40 kt southerly flow at 850 mb (driven by the low-level jet), overspread by 40-50 kts of south-southwesterly 500 mb flow, will yield elongated, mainly straight hodographs across the central/northern Plains. Effective bulk shear of 35-45 kts is possible from NE northward, with weaker values, but relatively more curved hodographs possible farther south into the southern High Plains. By afternoon peak heating, the rejuvenation of warm-sector convection ahead of the confluence band is likely, with scattered multicells and perhaps supercells possible from the Dakotas to the TX Panhandle. Storms will first develop across the northern Plains by early afternoon, with gradual southward development likely by early evening. Given modest lapse rates/thin CAPE profiles amid straight hodographs, the severe threat appears relatively isolated, with occasional severe gusts/hail the main threats. A tornado is possible over the northern Plains if a supercell can become sustained within the low-level jet axis and traverse a corridor of locally stronger surface-based buoyancy. The severe threat should gradually wane after dark, when surface-based buoyancy diminishes with nocturnal cooling and increased MLCINH. ..Squitieri.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Plains into the southern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday). ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough will pivot northward across the central/northern Plains, around broader cyclonic flow aloft, as a second upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Sunday). A surface low will develop and intensify while drifting northward across the Dakotas through the forecast period. Strengthening of the low will encourage the development of a southerly low-level jet, which will result in both northward moisture advection, and increased vertical wind shear, to support at least isolated severe storms across the Plains. ...Great Plains States... Widespread clouds and precipitation may be underway at the start of the period (12Z Sunday) given the warm-air advection regime in place ahead of the surface low. Through the day, some breaks in the cloud cover will support adequate insolation to generate surface-based buoyancy ahead of a confluence boundary. Surface temperatures may rise into the 70s F, amid 60+ f dewpoints, yielding 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in spots. However, mid-level lapse rates are expected to be modest at best (e.g. 6-7 C/km), with the aforementioned MLCAPE constrained to tall, thin profiles. However, 20-40 kt southerly flow at 850 mb (driven by the low-level jet), overspread by 40-50 kts of south-southwesterly 500 mb flow, will yield elongated, mainly straight hodographs across the central/northern Plains. Effective bulk shear of 35-45 kts is possible from NE northward, with weaker values, but relatively more curved hodographs possible farther south into the southern High Plains. By afternoon peak heating, the rejuvenation of warm-sector convection ahead of the confluence band is likely, with scattered multicells and perhaps supercells possible from the Dakotas to the TX Panhandle. Storms will first develop across the northern Plains by early afternoon, with gradual southward development likely by early evening. Given modest lapse rates/thin CAPE profiles amid straight hodographs, the severe threat appears relatively isolated, with occasional severe gusts/hail the main threats. A tornado is possible over the northern Plains if a supercell can become sustained within the low-level jet axis and traverse a corridor of locally stronger surface-based buoyancy. The severe threat should gradually wane after dark, when surface-based buoyancy diminishes with nocturnal cooling and increased MLCINH. ..Squitieri.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE DAKOTAS AND IN A PART OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies to the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly today into early tonight. ...Southwest/southern Rockies/High Plains... The basal portion of the broad mid/upper trough from the northern Rockies to the Lower CO Valley will progress more quickly east, yielding an elongated trough enveloping the entire High Plains by early Sunday. Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated by midday to early afternoon across western NM/CO as cooling mid-level temperatures become favorably timed with moderate diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass. Lower-level instability should be tempered by remnants of early morning convection and the quick redevelopment cycle by afternoon. Nevertheless, a broad belt of moderate southwesterly speed shear should support transient mid-level updraft rotation within the deepest updrafts. These should tend to become focused across southern/eastern NM later in the afternoon, but this region will be on the fringe of greater mid-level cooling centered on the Four Corners. As such, mid-level lapse rates will be weak where boundary-layer heating is more pronounced. A broad swath of sporadic strong to marginally severe hail/wind is anticipated before convection subsides after sunset. ...NE/SD/ND... Overall severe wind/hail potential appears low across multiple regimes through the period, amid a persistent meridional mid-level flow regime. Ongoing convection over the western Dakotas, tied to a minor MCV, should progress north-northeast towards the Canadian border this morning. Residual cloudiness/overturning should limit the northern extent of more substantial diurnal destabilization in ND. Late afternoon to evening storm development appears more likely to emanate out of the central High Plains north-northeastward across western/central NE within a modestly sheared and weakly buoyant airmass. This activity may foster another MCV that drifts north into SD, which could impinge on a confined corridor of recovered moderate buoyancy and sustain a marginal severe wind/hail threat tonight. ...IL/IN/WI... Low-probability severe hail/wind potential remains evident, but seems likely to be rather isolated. An MCV over central WI will drift south-southeast this morning. An increase in convective vigor is possible towards sunrise along the MUCAPE gradient in southern WI to northern IL. Within a belt of moderate mid-level northwesterlies, transient/weak updraft rotation is possible in a cell or two. Guidance differs greatly on the degree of boundary-layer heating downstream of the morning elevated activity. The more aggressively warm guidance suggests a conditional threat of diurnal intensification with potential for locally strong gusts. ..Grams/Dean.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE DAKOTAS AND IN A PART OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies to the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly today into early tonight. ...Southwest/southern Rockies/High Plains... The basal portion of the broad mid/upper trough from the northern Rockies to the Lower CO Valley will progress more quickly east, yielding an elongated trough enveloping the entire High Plains by early Sunday. Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated by midday to early afternoon across western NM/CO as cooling mid-level temperatures become favorably timed with moderate diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass. Lower-level instability should be tempered by remnants of early morning convection and the quick redevelopment cycle by afternoon. Nevertheless, a broad belt of moderate southwesterly speed shear should support transient mid-level updraft rotation within the deepest updrafts. These should tend to become focused across southern/eastern NM later in the afternoon, but this region will be on the fringe of greater mid-level cooling centered on the Four Corners. As such, mid-level lapse rates will be weak where boundary-layer heating is more pronounced. A broad swath of sporadic strong to marginally severe hail/wind is anticipated before convection subsides after sunset. ...NE/SD/ND... Overall severe wind/hail potential appears low across multiple regimes through the period, amid a persistent meridional mid-level flow regime. Ongoing convection over the western Dakotas, tied to a minor MCV, should progress north-northeast towards the Canadian border this morning. Residual cloudiness/overturning should limit the northern extent of more substantial diurnal destabilization in ND. Late afternoon to evening storm development appears more likely to emanate out of the central High Plains north-northeastward across western/central NE within a modestly sheared and weakly buoyant airmass. This activity may foster another MCV that drifts north into SD, which could impinge on a confined corridor of recovered moderate buoyancy and sustain a marginal severe wind/hail threat tonight. ...IL/IN/WI... Low-probability severe hail/wind potential remains evident, but seems likely to be rather isolated. An MCV over central WI will drift south-southeast this morning. An increase in convective vigor is possible towards sunrise along the MUCAPE gradient in southern WI to northern IL. Within a belt of moderate mid-level northwesterlies, transient/weak updraft rotation is possible in a cell or two. Guidance differs greatly on the degree of boundary-layer heating downstream of the morning elevated activity. The more aggressively warm guidance suggests a conditional threat of diurnal intensification with potential for locally strong gusts. ..Grams/Dean.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE DAKOTAS AND IN A PART OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies to the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly today into early tonight. ...Southwest/southern Rockies/High Plains... The basal portion of the broad mid/upper trough from the northern Rockies to the Lower CO Valley will progress more quickly east, yielding an elongated trough enveloping the entire High Plains by early Sunday. Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated by midday to early afternoon across western NM/CO as cooling mid-level temperatures become favorably timed with moderate diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass. Lower-level instability should be tempered by remnants of early morning convection and the quick redevelopment cycle by afternoon. Nevertheless, a broad belt of moderate southwesterly speed shear should support transient mid-level updraft rotation within the deepest updrafts. These should tend to become focused across southern/eastern NM later in the afternoon, but this region will be on the fringe of greater mid-level cooling centered on the Four Corners. As such, mid-level lapse rates will be weak where boundary-layer heating is more pronounced. A broad swath of sporadic strong to marginally severe hail/wind is anticipated before convection subsides after sunset. ...NE/SD/ND... Overall severe wind/hail potential appears low across multiple regimes through the period, amid a persistent meridional mid-level flow regime. Ongoing convection over the western Dakotas, tied to a minor MCV, should progress north-northeast towards the Canadian border this morning. Residual cloudiness/overturning should limit the northern extent of more substantial diurnal destabilization in ND. Late afternoon to evening storm development appears more likely to emanate out of the central High Plains north-northeastward across western/central NE within a modestly sheared and weakly buoyant airmass. This activity may foster another MCV that drifts north into SD, which could impinge on a confined corridor of recovered moderate buoyancy and sustain a marginal severe wind/hail threat tonight. ...IL/IN/WI... Low-probability severe hail/wind potential remains evident, but seems likely to be rather isolated. An MCV over central WI will drift south-southeast this morning. An increase in convective vigor is possible towards sunrise along the MUCAPE gradient in southern WI to northern IL. Within a belt of moderate mid-level northwesterlies, transient/weak updraft rotation is possible in a cell or two. Guidance differs greatly on the degree of boundary-layer heating downstream of the morning elevated activity. The more aggressively warm guidance suggests a conditional threat of diurnal intensification with potential for locally strong gusts. ..Grams/Dean.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE DAKOTAS AND IN A PART OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies to the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly today into early tonight. ...Southwest/southern Rockies/High Plains... The basal portion of the broad mid/upper trough from the northern Rockies to the Lower CO Valley will progress more quickly east, yielding an elongated trough enveloping the entire High Plains by early Sunday. Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated by midday to early afternoon across western NM/CO as cooling mid-level temperatures become favorably timed with moderate diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass. Lower-level instability should be tempered by remnants of early morning convection and the quick redevelopment cycle by afternoon. Nevertheless, a broad belt of moderate southwesterly speed shear should support transient mid-level updraft rotation within the deepest updrafts. These should tend to become focused across southern/eastern NM later in the afternoon, but this region will be on the fringe of greater mid-level cooling centered on the Four Corners. As such, mid-level lapse rates will be weak where boundary-layer heating is more pronounced. A broad swath of sporadic strong to marginally severe hail/wind is anticipated before convection subsides after sunset. ...NE/SD/ND... Overall severe wind/hail potential appears low across multiple regimes through the period, amid a persistent meridional mid-level flow regime. Ongoing convection over the western Dakotas, tied to a minor MCV, should progress north-northeast towards the Canadian border this morning. Residual cloudiness/overturning should limit the northern extent of more substantial diurnal destabilization in ND. Late afternoon to evening storm development appears more likely to emanate out of the central High Plains north-northeastward across western/central NE within a modestly sheared and weakly buoyant airmass. This activity may foster another MCV that drifts north into SD, which could impinge on a confined corridor of recovered moderate buoyancy and sustain a marginal severe wind/hail threat tonight. ...IL/IN/WI... Low-probability severe hail/wind potential remains evident, but seems likely to be rather isolated. An MCV over central WI will drift south-southeast this morning. An increase in convective vigor is possible towards sunrise along the MUCAPE gradient in southern WI to northern IL. Within a belt of moderate mid-level northwesterlies, transient/weak updraft rotation is possible in a cell or two. Guidance differs greatly on the degree of boundary-layer heating downstream of the morning elevated activity. The more aggressively warm guidance suggests a conditional threat of diurnal intensification with potential for locally strong gusts. ..Grams/Dean.. 09/13/2025 Read more

Issued at 1130 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 000 WTPZ63 KNHC 130532 TCUEP3 Remnants of Mario Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 1130 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 ...MARIO IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...LAST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY... Recent satellite-derived wind data and satellite imagery indicate that Mario no longer has a well-defined center of circulation. Therefore, a special, final, advisory will be issued by 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC, in lieu of the 0900 UTC advisory. SUMMARY OF 1130 PM CST...0530 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 105.3W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...50 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.79 INCHES $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...MARIO IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...LAST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY... As of 11:30 PM CST Fri Sep 12 the center of Mario was located near 18.3, -105.3 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Sep 2025 02:35:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Sep 2025 03:22:13 GMT

MD 2069 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST ND
Mesoscale Discussion 2069 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0949 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Areas affected...Parts of western/central SD into southwest ND Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 130249Z - 130445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and strong to locally severe gusts will continue into late tonight. DISCUSSION...Earlier slow-moving supercells have largely weakened across northwest SD/southwest ND, but recent vigorous development has been noted across southwest SD along a northeastward-moving outflow emanating out of the northern High Plains. Additional strong to potentially severe storms may develop along this outflow as it impinges upon a favorable thermodynamic environment (as observed in the 00Z BIS/ABR soundings). While ascent along the outflow may encourage some tendency toward development of clusters or small line segments, favorable deep-layer shear combined with weak low-level flow may continue to favor isolated or semi-discrete cells with a continued threat of large hail. While MLCINH will continue to increase with time, favorable lapse rates above the stabilizing near-surface layer will also support some potential for strong to locally severe gusts. The severe threat may continue to remain rather isolated, but watch issuance is possible if trends support maintenance of multiple sustained supercells or organized clusters/line segments into late tonight. ..Dean/Gleason.. 09/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 43090282 45430394 46220400 46870179 46960058 45700028 44990023 44380026 43670055 43250087 43090282 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more