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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, especially from the eastern Florida Peninsula through southeast Georgia, and across northeastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the forecast with this update. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and northern/central FL, reference MCDs #753 and #754. For the overnight and early morning time frame, a locally favorable corridor for tornadoes/waterspouts may develop in the vicinity of the western FL Panhandle -- focused ahead of a well-defined MCV tracking eastward across the north-central Gulf. However, confidence in adding higher tornado probabilities is too low at this time, given ongoing/additional convection and related boundary-layer overturning. ..Weinman.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones embedded within a large positively titled upper trough extending from the southern Plains through the Northeast. The northernmost/easternmost cyclone is centered over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity, and is forecast to move gradually eastward throughout the day, ending the period over southern New England. An associated surface low, which is currently centered over eastern NJ, is forecast to progress northeastward while becoming increasingly aligned with the mid-level cyclone. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across VA and then back westward across KY, southern IL, and central MO. As the low moves northeastward, this front is expected to gradually push southward/southeastward, moving through much of the Mid-Atlantic by this evening. The southernmost/westernmost embedded cyclone is currently centered over southern AR, and the expectation is for the cyclone to shift southeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Lower MS Valley. Primary surface low associated with this system is currently over the northwest Gulf. This low is forecast to progress slowly eastward along the central Gulf coast, remaining just off shore and likely reaching just off AL/MS border intersection by early tomorrow morning. ...Central Gulf Coast into FL... A modest, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum is forecast to move from the central FL Panhandle into southeast GA/northern FL today, well ahead of the mid-level cyclone and associated surface low described in the synopsis. Localized ascent attendant to this features coupled with modest large-scale forcing for ascent and airmass destabilization will result in early-afternoon thunderstorm development, particularly along any sea breeze boundary that develops. Vertical shear will be modest, resulting in a mostly multicellular mode. Even so, updrafts are still expected to be strong enough to produce damaging downbursts and isolated large hail. Later tonight, some additional organization/strengthening of a convective line near the surface low is possible. Some strengthening of the low-level flow could occur at the same time, resulting in a low-probability tornado risk along the coast from AL into the western and central FL Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, with the highest coverage from the VA Tidewater into east-central NC, where forcing along the cold front will be strongest. The strongest shear is anticipated across this region as well, but the overall magnitude should still be modest, with most guidance suggesting deep-layer shear around 35 kt. Buoyancy will be modest as well, with MLCAPE likely maximizing around 800 to 1000 J/kg. These environmental conditions support the potential for a few stronger, more organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, especially from the eastern Florida Peninsula through southeast Georgia, and across northeastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the forecast with this update. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and northern/central FL, reference MCDs #753 and #754. For the overnight and early morning time frame, a locally favorable corridor for tornadoes/waterspouts may develop in the vicinity of the western FL Panhandle -- focused ahead of a well-defined MCV tracking eastward across the north-central Gulf. However, confidence in adding higher tornado probabilities is too low at this time, given ongoing/additional convection and related boundary-layer overturning. ..Weinman.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones embedded within a large positively titled upper trough extending from the southern Plains through the Northeast. The northernmost/easternmost cyclone is centered over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity, and is forecast to move gradually eastward throughout the day, ending the period over southern New England. An associated surface low, which is currently centered over eastern NJ, is forecast to progress northeastward while becoming increasingly aligned with the mid-level cyclone. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across VA and then back westward across KY, southern IL, and central MO. As the low moves northeastward, this front is expected to gradually push southward/southeastward, moving through much of the Mid-Atlantic by this evening. The southernmost/westernmost embedded cyclone is currently centered over southern AR, and the expectation is for the cyclone to shift southeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Lower MS Valley. Primary surface low associated with this system is currently over the northwest Gulf. This low is forecast to progress slowly eastward along the central Gulf coast, remaining just off shore and likely reaching just off AL/MS border intersection by early tomorrow morning. ...Central Gulf Coast into FL... A modest, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum is forecast to move from the central FL Panhandle into southeast GA/northern FL today, well ahead of the mid-level cyclone and associated surface low described in the synopsis. Localized ascent attendant to this features coupled with modest large-scale forcing for ascent and airmass destabilization will result in early-afternoon thunderstorm development, particularly along any sea breeze boundary that develops. Vertical shear will be modest, resulting in a mostly multicellular mode. Even so, updrafts are still expected to be strong enough to produce damaging downbursts and isolated large hail. Later tonight, some additional organization/strengthening of a convective line near the surface low is possible. Some strengthening of the low-level flow could occur at the same time, resulting in a low-probability tornado risk along the coast from AL into the western and central FL Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, with the highest coverage from the VA Tidewater into east-central NC, where forcing along the cold front will be strongest. The strongest shear is anticipated across this region as well, but the overall magnitude should still be modest, with most guidance suggesting deep-layer shear around 35 kt. Buoyancy will be modest as well, with MLCAPE likely maximizing around 800 to 1000 J/kg. These environmental conditions support the potential for a few stronger, more organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, especially from the eastern Florida Peninsula through southeast Georgia, and across northeastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the forecast with this update. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and northern/central FL, reference MCDs #753 and #754. For the overnight and early morning time frame, a locally favorable corridor for tornadoes/waterspouts may develop in the vicinity of the western FL Panhandle -- focused ahead of a well-defined MCV tracking eastward across the north-central Gulf. However, confidence in adding higher tornado probabilities is too low at this time, given ongoing/additional convection and related boundary-layer overturning. ..Weinman.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones embedded within a large positively titled upper trough extending from the southern Plains through the Northeast. The northernmost/easternmost cyclone is centered over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity, and is forecast to move gradually eastward throughout the day, ending the period over southern New England. An associated surface low, which is currently centered over eastern NJ, is forecast to progress northeastward while becoming increasingly aligned with the mid-level cyclone. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across VA and then back westward across KY, southern IL, and central MO. As the low moves northeastward, this front is expected to gradually push southward/southeastward, moving through much of the Mid-Atlantic by this evening. The southernmost/westernmost embedded cyclone is currently centered over southern AR, and the expectation is for the cyclone to shift southeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Lower MS Valley. Primary surface low associated with this system is currently over the northwest Gulf. This low is forecast to progress slowly eastward along the central Gulf coast, remaining just off shore and likely reaching just off AL/MS border intersection by early tomorrow morning. ...Central Gulf Coast into FL... A modest, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum is forecast to move from the central FL Panhandle into southeast GA/northern FL today, well ahead of the mid-level cyclone and associated surface low described in the synopsis. Localized ascent attendant to this features coupled with modest large-scale forcing for ascent and airmass destabilization will result in early-afternoon thunderstorm development, particularly along any sea breeze boundary that develops. Vertical shear will be modest, resulting in a mostly multicellular mode. Even so, updrafts are still expected to be strong enough to produce damaging downbursts and isolated large hail. Later tonight, some additional organization/strengthening of a convective line near the surface low is possible. Some strengthening of the low-level flow could occur at the same time, resulting in a low-probability tornado risk along the coast from AL into the western and central FL Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, with the highest coverage from the VA Tidewater into east-central NC, where forcing along the cold front will be strongest. The strongest shear is anticipated across this region as well, but the overall magnitude should still be modest, with most guidance suggesting deep-layer shear around 35 kt. Buoyancy will be modest as well, with MLCAPE likely maximizing around 800 to 1000 J/kg. These environmental conditions support the potential for a few stronger, more organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, especially from the eastern Florida Peninsula through southeast Georgia, and across northeastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the forecast with this update. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and northern/central FL, reference MCDs #753 and #754. For the overnight and early morning time frame, a locally favorable corridor for tornadoes/waterspouts may develop in the vicinity of the western FL Panhandle -- focused ahead of a well-defined MCV tracking eastward across the north-central Gulf. However, confidence in adding higher tornado probabilities is too low at this time, given ongoing/additional convection and related boundary-layer overturning. ..Weinman.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones embedded within a large positively titled upper trough extending from the southern Plains through the Northeast. The northernmost/easternmost cyclone is centered over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity, and is forecast to move gradually eastward throughout the day, ending the period over southern New England. An associated surface low, which is currently centered over eastern NJ, is forecast to progress northeastward while becoming increasingly aligned with the mid-level cyclone. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across VA and then back westward across KY, southern IL, and central MO. As the low moves northeastward, this front is expected to gradually push southward/southeastward, moving through much of the Mid-Atlantic by this evening. The southernmost/westernmost embedded cyclone is currently centered over southern AR, and the expectation is for the cyclone to shift southeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Lower MS Valley. Primary surface low associated with this system is currently over the northwest Gulf. This low is forecast to progress slowly eastward along the central Gulf coast, remaining just off shore and likely reaching just off AL/MS border intersection by early tomorrow morning. ...Central Gulf Coast into FL... A modest, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum is forecast to move from the central FL Panhandle into southeast GA/northern FL today, well ahead of the mid-level cyclone and associated surface low described in the synopsis. Localized ascent attendant to this features coupled with modest large-scale forcing for ascent and airmass destabilization will result in early-afternoon thunderstorm development, particularly along any sea breeze boundary that develops. Vertical shear will be modest, resulting in a mostly multicellular mode. Even so, updrafts are still expected to be strong enough to produce damaging downbursts and isolated large hail. Later tonight, some additional organization/strengthening of a convective line near the surface low is possible. Some strengthening of the low-level flow could occur at the same time, resulting in a low-probability tornado risk along the coast from AL into the western and central FL Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, with the highest coverage from the VA Tidewater into east-central NC, where forcing along the cold front will be strongest. The strongest shear is anticipated across this region as well, but the overall magnitude should still be modest, with most guidance suggesting deep-layer shear around 35 kt. Buoyancy will be modest as well, with MLCAPE likely maximizing around 800 to 1000 J/kg. These environmental conditions support the potential for a few stronger, more organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, especially from the eastern Florida Peninsula through southeast Georgia, and across northeastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the forecast with this update. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and northern/central FL, reference MCDs #753 and #754. For the overnight and early morning time frame, a locally favorable corridor for tornadoes/waterspouts may develop in the vicinity of the western FL Panhandle -- focused ahead of a well-defined MCV tracking eastward across the north-central Gulf. However, confidence in adding higher tornado probabilities is too low at this time, given ongoing/additional convection and related boundary-layer overturning. ..Weinman.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones embedded within a large positively titled upper trough extending from the southern Plains through the Northeast. The northernmost/easternmost cyclone is centered over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity, and is forecast to move gradually eastward throughout the day, ending the period over southern New England. An associated surface low, which is currently centered over eastern NJ, is forecast to progress northeastward while becoming increasingly aligned with the mid-level cyclone. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across VA and then back westward across KY, southern IL, and central MO. As the low moves northeastward, this front is expected to gradually push southward/southeastward, moving through much of the Mid-Atlantic by this evening. The southernmost/westernmost embedded cyclone is currently centered over southern AR, and the expectation is for the cyclone to shift southeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Lower MS Valley. Primary surface low associated with this system is currently over the northwest Gulf. This low is forecast to progress slowly eastward along the central Gulf coast, remaining just off shore and likely reaching just off AL/MS border intersection by early tomorrow morning. ...Central Gulf Coast into FL... A modest, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum is forecast to move from the central FL Panhandle into southeast GA/northern FL today, well ahead of the mid-level cyclone and associated surface low described in the synopsis. Localized ascent attendant to this features coupled with modest large-scale forcing for ascent and airmass destabilization will result in early-afternoon thunderstorm development, particularly along any sea breeze boundary that develops. Vertical shear will be modest, resulting in a mostly multicellular mode. Even so, updrafts are still expected to be strong enough to produce damaging downbursts and isolated large hail. Later tonight, some additional organization/strengthening of a convective line near the surface low is possible. Some strengthening of the low-level flow could occur at the same time, resulting in a low-probability tornado risk along the coast from AL into the western and central FL Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, with the highest coverage from the VA Tidewater into east-central NC, where forcing along the cold front will be strongest. The strongest shear is anticipated across this region as well, but the overall magnitude should still be modest, with most guidance suggesting deep-layer shear around 35 kt. Buoyancy will be modest as well, with MLCAPE likely maximizing around 800 to 1000 J/kg. These environmental conditions support the potential for a few stronger, more organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, especially from the eastern Florida Peninsula through southeast Georgia, and across northeastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the forecast with this update. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and northern/central FL, reference MCDs #753 and #754. For the overnight and early morning time frame, a locally favorable corridor for tornadoes/waterspouts may develop in the vicinity of the western FL Panhandle -- focused ahead of a well-defined MCV tracking eastward across the north-central Gulf. However, confidence in adding higher tornado probabilities is too low at this time, given ongoing/additional convection and related boundary-layer overturning. ..Weinman.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones embedded within a large positively titled upper trough extending from the southern Plains through the Northeast. The northernmost/easternmost cyclone is centered over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity, and is forecast to move gradually eastward throughout the day, ending the period over southern New England. An associated surface low, which is currently centered over eastern NJ, is forecast to progress northeastward while becoming increasingly aligned with the mid-level cyclone. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across VA and then back westward across KY, southern IL, and central MO. As the low moves northeastward, this front is expected to gradually push southward/southeastward, moving through much of the Mid-Atlantic by this evening. The southernmost/westernmost embedded cyclone is currently centered over southern AR, and the expectation is for the cyclone to shift southeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Lower MS Valley. Primary surface low associated with this system is currently over the northwest Gulf. This low is forecast to progress slowly eastward along the central Gulf coast, remaining just off shore and likely reaching just off AL/MS border intersection by early tomorrow morning. ...Central Gulf Coast into FL... A modest, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum is forecast to move from the central FL Panhandle into southeast GA/northern FL today, well ahead of the mid-level cyclone and associated surface low described in the synopsis. Localized ascent attendant to this features coupled with modest large-scale forcing for ascent and airmass destabilization will result in early-afternoon thunderstorm development, particularly along any sea breeze boundary that develops. Vertical shear will be modest, resulting in a mostly multicellular mode. Even so, updrafts are still expected to be strong enough to produce damaging downbursts and isolated large hail. Later tonight, some additional organization/strengthening of a convective line near the surface low is possible. Some strengthening of the low-level flow could occur at the same time, resulting in a low-probability tornado risk along the coast from AL into the western and central FL Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, with the highest coverage from the VA Tidewater into east-central NC, where forcing along the cold front will be strongest. The strongest shear is anticipated across this region as well, but the overall magnitude should still be modest, with most guidance suggesting deep-layer shear around 35 kt. Buoyancy will be modest as well, with MLCAPE likely maximizing around 800 to 1000 J/kg. These environmental conditions support the potential for a few stronger, more organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. Read more

MD 0754 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0754 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Areas affected...central and eastern parts of the Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 091829Z - 092000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong, damaging wind gusts and some large hail may accompany the stronger storms initiating off of sea-breeze boundaries this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...A cumulus field is deepening along the shoreline of the eastern FL Peninsula with a developing, westward progressing sea-breeze boundary, which should serve as the impetus for convective initiation over the next couple of hours. These storms are poised to develop atop a heated, well-mixed boundary layer, characterized by 8-9 C/km low-level lapse rates amid 70 F surface dewpoints, boosting MLCAPE to over 2000 J/kg in spots. In addition to adequate buoyancy supporting strong thunderstorm updrafts, glancing stronger mid/upper-level flow to the north will support 30+ kts of effective bulk shear and some potential for storm organization. Multicells are the expected mode of convection, accompanied by strong wind gusts and perhaps some hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed if widespread, intense convection becomes apparent. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 27098153 28348194 29218206 29878203 30608200 30808193 30878170 30708145 29968132 29258100 28648064 27998044 27318011 26898005 26658027 26678108 27098153 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0753 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0753 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091805Z - 092000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong storms could produce marginally severe hail and locally gusty winds this afternoon across portions of southeast Virginia into adjacent northeast North Carolina. DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is noted in visible satellite imagery this afternoon in the vicinity of a surface cold front. Modest destabilization is occurring across the region, aided by steepening midlevel lapse rates as cooling aloft occurs with the eastward-meandering upper low/trough. While boundary layer moisture is modest (low 60s F dewpoints), MLCAPE to around 500-750 J/kg will likely overspread the region through early evening. Sufficient shear is in place for some updraft organization. Elongated hodographs and cold temperatures aloft suggest that stronger updrafts could support marginally severe hail. Furthermore, steepening low-level lapse rates could support locally strong gusts. Overall, modest instability and possibly lower storm coverage should temper the overall severe risk and a watch is not currently expected. ..Leitman/Mosier.. 05/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... LAT...LON 37247577 36877553 35707533 35397544 35257588 35267614 35627700 36097760 36357772 36677766 37007735 37097727 37327666 37347625 37317603 37247577 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf coast region on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong gusts across parts of the northern Rockies and High Plains late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over LA, providing cool temperatures aloft from TX into the Gulf Coast region. Moderate southwest winds aloft will remain over the eastern Gulf and overspread much of AL, GA, and FL late. Low pressure and numerous storms will affect those same states for much of the day. To the west, an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will deepen further, with a 70 kt midlevel jet nosing into central MT. A surface trough will deepen over the northern High Plains, and extending west across MT and into ID, with steep lapse rates supporting scattered thunderstorms. ...Southern MS/AL/GA into FL... Numerous storms will likely be ongoing throughout the day over the northeast Gulf and spreading into AL, northern FL and GA. Scattered strong wind gusts may occur with these outflows. Farther west, daytime storms may also develop over MS and AL where heating occurs beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Sporadic hail or strong gusts may occur. ...Northern High Plains... As the upper trough overspreads the region, steepening lapse rates will result in a large area of potential thunderstorm threat. Strengthening southwest flow aloft will also conditionally support cellular activity with marginal hail or localized severe gusts. At this time, will maintain the existing Marginal Risk over eastern MT near the lee trough. Additional parts of MT or even ID and northwest WY may eventually need to be added to the Marginal Risk area in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf coast region on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong gusts across parts of the northern Rockies and High Plains late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over LA, providing cool temperatures aloft from TX into the Gulf Coast region. Moderate southwest winds aloft will remain over the eastern Gulf and overspread much of AL, GA, and FL late. Low pressure and numerous storms will affect those same states for much of the day. To the west, an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will deepen further, with a 70 kt midlevel jet nosing into central MT. A surface trough will deepen over the northern High Plains, and extending west across MT and into ID, with steep lapse rates supporting scattered thunderstorms. ...Southern MS/AL/GA into FL... Numerous storms will likely be ongoing throughout the day over the northeast Gulf and spreading into AL, northern FL and GA. Scattered strong wind gusts may occur with these outflows. Farther west, daytime storms may also develop over MS and AL where heating occurs beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Sporadic hail or strong gusts may occur. ...Northern High Plains... As the upper trough overspreads the region, steepening lapse rates will result in a large area of potential thunderstorm threat. Strengthening southwest flow aloft will also conditionally support cellular activity with marginal hail or localized severe gusts. At this time, will maintain the existing Marginal Risk over eastern MT near the lee trough. Additional parts of MT or even ID and northwest WY may eventually need to be added to the Marginal Risk area in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf coast region on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong gusts across parts of the northern Rockies and High Plains late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over LA, providing cool temperatures aloft from TX into the Gulf Coast region. Moderate southwest winds aloft will remain over the eastern Gulf and overspread much of AL, GA, and FL late. Low pressure and numerous storms will affect those same states for much of the day. To the west, an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will deepen further, with a 70 kt midlevel jet nosing into central MT. A surface trough will deepen over the northern High Plains, and extending west across MT and into ID, with steep lapse rates supporting scattered thunderstorms. ...Southern MS/AL/GA into FL... Numerous storms will likely be ongoing throughout the day over the northeast Gulf and spreading into AL, northern FL and GA. Scattered strong wind gusts may occur with these outflows. Farther west, daytime storms may also develop over MS and AL where heating occurs beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Sporadic hail or strong gusts may occur. ...Northern High Plains... As the upper trough overspreads the region, steepening lapse rates will result in a large area of potential thunderstorm threat. Strengthening southwest flow aloft will also conditionally support cellular activity with marginal hail or localized severe gusts. At this time, will maintain the existing Marginal Risk over eastern MT near the lee trough. Additional parts of MT or even ID and northwest WY may eventually need to be added to the Marginal Risk area in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf coast region on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong gusts across parts of the northern Rockies and High Plains late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over LA, providing cool temperatures aloft from TX into the Gulf Coast region. Moderate southwest winds aloft will remain over the eastern Gulf and overspread much of AL, GA, and FL late. Low pressure and numerous storms will affect those same states for much of the day. To the west, an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will deepen further, with a 70 kt midlevel jet nosing into central MT. A surface trough will deepen over the northern High Plains, and extending west across MT and into ID, with steep lapse rates supporting scattered thunderstorms. ...Southern MS/AL/GA into FL... Numerous storms will likely be ongoing throughout the day over the northeast Gulf and spreading into AL, northern FL and GA. Scattered strong wind gusts may occur with these outflows. Farther west, daytime storms may also develop over MS and AL where heating occurs beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Sporadic hail or strong gusts may occur. ...Northern High Plains... As the upper trough overspreads the region, steepening lapse rates will result in a large area of potential thunderstorm threat. Strengthening southwest flow aloft will also conditionally support cellular activity with marginal hail or localized severe gusts. At this time, will maintain the existing Marginal Risk over eastern MT near the lee trough. Additional parts of MT or even ID and northwest WY may eventually need to be added to the Marginal Risk area in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf coast region on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong gusts across parts of the northern Rockies and High Plains late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over LA, providing cool temperatures aloft from TX into the Gulf Coast region. Moderate southwest winds aloft will remain over the eastern Gulf and overspread much of AL, GA, and FL late. Low pressure and numerous storms will affect those same states for much of the day. To the west, an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will deepen further, with a 70 kt midlevel jet nosing into central MT. A surface trough will deepen over the northern High Plains, and extending west across MT and into ID, with steep lapse rates supporting scattered thunderstorms. ...Southern MS/AL/GA into FL... Numerous storms will likely be ongoing throughout the day over the northeast Gulf and spreading into AL, northern FL and GA. Scattered strong wind gusts may occur with these outflows. Farther west, daytime storms may also develop over MS and AL where heating occurs beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Sporadic hail or strong gusts may occur. ...Northern High Plains... As the upper trough overspreads the region, steepening lapse rates will result in a large area of potential thunderstorm threat. Strengthening southwest flow aloft will also conditionally support cellular activity with marginal hail or localized severe gusts. At this time, will maintain the existing Marginal Risk over eastern MT near the lee trough. Additional parts of MT or even ID and northwest WY may eventually need to be added to the Marginal Risk area in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf coast region on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong gusts across parts of the northern Rockies and High Plains late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over LA, providing cool temperatures aloft from TX into the Gulf Coast region. Moderate southwest winds aloft will remain over the eastern Gulf and overspread much of AL, GA, and FL late. Low pressure and numerous storms will affect those same states for much of the day. To the west, an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will deepen further, with a 70 kt midlevel jet nosing into central MT. A surface trough will deepen over the northern High Plains, and extending west across MT and into ID, with steep lapse rates supporting scattered thunderstorms. ...Southern MS/AL/GA into FL... Numerous storms will likely be ongoing throughout the day over the northeast Gulf and spreading into AL, northern FL and GA. Scattered strong wind gusts may occur with these outflows. Farther west, daytime storms may also develop over MS and AL where heating occurs beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Sporadic hail or strong gusts may occur. ...Northern High Plains... As the upper trough overspreads the region, steepening lapse rates will result in a large area of potential thunderstorm threat. Strengthening southwest flow aloft will also conditionally support cellular activity with marginal hail or localized severe gusts. At this time, will maintain the existing Marginal Risk over eastern MT near the lee trough. Additional parts of MT or even ID and northwest WY may eventually need to be added to the Marginal Risk area in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf coast region on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong gusts across parts of the northern Rockies and High Plains late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over LA, providing cool temperatures aloft from TX into the Gulf Coast region. Moderate southwest winds aloft will remain over the eastern Gulf and overspread much of AL, GA, and FL late. Low pressure and numerous storms will affect those same states for much of the day. To the west, an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will deepen further, with a 70 kt midlevel jet nosing into central MT. A surface trough will deepen over the northern High Plains, and extending west across MT and into ID, with steep lapse rates supporting scattered thunderstorms. ...Southern MS/AL/GA into FL... Numerous storms will likely be ongoing throughout the day over the northeast Gulf and spreading into AL, northern FL and GA. Scattered strong wind gusts may occur with these outflows. Farther west, daytime storms may also develop over MS and AL where heating occurs beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Sporadic hail or strong gusts may occur. ...Northern High Plains... As the upper trough overspreads the region, steepening lapse rates will result in a large area of potential thunderstorm threat. Strengthening southwest flow aloft will also conditionally support cellular activity with marginal hail or localized severe gusts. At this time, will maintain the existing Marginal Risk over eastern MT near the lee trough. Additional parts of MT or even ID and northwest WY may eventually need to be added to the Marginal Risk area in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

MD 0752 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0752 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Areas affected...portions of the Florida Panhandle into extreme southeast Alabama and extreme southwest Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091741Z - 091915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A strong, damaging wind gust or an instance of marginally severe hail may occur with some of the stronger storms over the next few hours. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts intensifying thunderstorms along the FL Panhandle and immediate surrounding areas, with 40 dBZ echoes extending over 30 kft. These storms are strengthening atop a deepening boundary layer, with 8 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates contributing to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE. Regional VADs show modestly elongated, straight hodographs and around 30 kts of effective bulk shear, favoring multicellular storm modes. The strongest, longest-lived multicells may produce strong wind gusts and perhaps an instance of marginally severe hail. The sparse nature of the severe threat precludes a watch issuance. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 30688735 31288599 31308481 30948385 30468368 30158388 29818438 29638487 29578512 29738539 29958551 30168585 30298630 30348696 30688735 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...AND INTO CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern and central Florida and adjacent southern Georgia and Alabama on Saturday. Additional strong thunderstorms may impact parts of western into central Montana. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone will remain over the Sabine Valley, with cold air aloft extending from TX toward the northern Gulf Coast. At the surface, low pressure will move from the northern Gulf into LA/MS, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. A moist and unstable air mass will exist south of this boundary, supporting bouts of thunderstorms. To the west, strong southwest winds aloft will spread across the Pacific Northwest and into ID and western MT late. Heating within a surface trough over western MT combined with cooling aloft may support scattered high based storms. ...FL into far southern GA/AL... Numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf Of America and extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. Associated outflows may be strong given the amount of convection. Veering winds with height in the low levels may support rotation at times, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out along the stationary front. During the afternoon, strong heating will lead to storms from central FL into southern GA, and cool temperatures aloft may favor sporadic hail. ...West-central MT... Scattered fast-moving storms are forecast after about 21Z along the ID/MT border and spreading from western into north-central MT. While high based, steep lapse rates along with favorable mean winds/deep shear will support both strong to severe gusts and marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...AND INTO CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern and central Florida and adjacent southern Georgia and Alabama on Saturday. Additional strong thunderstorms may impact parts of western into central Montana. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone will remain over the Sabine Valley, with cold air aloft extending from TX toward the northern Gulf Coast. At the surface, low pressure will move from the northern Gulf into LA/MS, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. A moist and unstable air mass will exist south of this boundary, supporting bouts of thunderstorms. To the west, strong southwest winds aloft will spread across the Pacific Northwest and into ID and western MT late. Heating within a surface trough over western MT combined with cooling aloft may support scattered high based storms. ...FL into far southern GA/AL... Numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf Of America and extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. Associated outflows may be strong given the amount of convection. Veering winds with height in the low levels may support rotation at times, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out along the stationary front. During the afternoon, strong heating will lead to storms from central FL into southern GA, and cool temperatures aloft may favor sporadic hail. ...West-central MT... Scattered fast-moving storms are forecast after about 21Z along the ID/MT border and spreading from western into north-central MT. While high based, steep lapse rates along with favorable mean winds/deep shear will support both strong to severe gusts and marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...AND INTO CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern and central Florida and adjacent southern Georgia and Alabama on Saturday. Additional strong thunderstorms may impact parts of western into central Montana. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone will remain over the Sabine Valley, with cold air aloft extending from TX toward the northern Gulf Coast. At the surface, low pressure will move from the northern Gulf into LA/MS, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. A moist and unstable air mass will exist south of this boundary, supporting bouts of thunderstorms. To the west, strong southwest winds aloft will spread across the Pacific Northwest and into ID and western MT late. Heating within a surface trough over western MT combined with cooling aloft may support scattered high based storms. ...FL into far southern GA/AL... Numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf Of America and extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. Associated outflows may be strong given the amount of convection. Veering winds with height in the low levels may support rotation at times, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out along the stationary front. During the afternoon, strong heating will lead to storms from central FL into southern GA, and cool temperatures aloft may favor sporadic hail. ...West-central MT... Scattered fast-moving storms are forecast after about 21Z along the ID/MT border and spreading from western into north-central MT. While high based, steep lapse rates along with favorable mean winds/deep shear will support both strong to severe gusts and marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...AND INTO CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern and central Florida and adjacent southern Georgia and Alabama on Saturday. Additional strong thunderstorms may impact parts of western into central Montana. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone will remain over the Sabine Valley, with cold air aloft extending from TX toward the northern Gulf Coast. At the surface, low pressure will move from the northern Gulf into LA/MS, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. A moist and unstable air mass will exist south of this boundary, supporting bouts of thunderstorms. To the west, strong southwest winds aloft will spread across the Pacific Northwest and into ID and western MT late. Heating within a surface trough over western MT combined with cooling aloft may support scattered high based storms. ...FL into far southern GA/AL... Numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf Of America and extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. Associated outflows may be strong given the amount of convection. Veering winds with height in the low levels may support rotation at times, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out along the stationary front. During the afternoon, strong heating will lead to storms from central FL into southern GA, and cool temperatures aloft may favor sporadic hail. ...West-central MT... Scattered fast-moving storms are forecast after about 21Z along the ID/MT border and spreading from western into north-central MT. While high based, steep lapse rates along with favorable mean winds/deep shear will support both strong to severe gusts and marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more