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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Strong ridging over the western US will continue to amplify today and tonight, as a blocking pattern with a cut off flow persists farther east. Strong southwesterly flow will begin to move overtop of the ridge and spread into the northern Rockies/Plains, deepening a lee cyclone/trough in southern Canada. This will support gusty southerly winds and some fire danger over the northern US. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... As the lee trough over the Rockies and southern Canada deepens, southerly low-level flow will increase across MT, the Dakotas and western MN. Ahead of returning surface moisture, several hours of low RH are expected through the afternoon. Area fuels have been mostly dry over the last several days, with little recent rainfall. With gusts to 15-20 mph, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. In addition to the dry and windy conditions, isolated high-based storms are possible over parts of central and eastern MT. With PWAT Values below 0.6 inches, significant rainfall is unlikely, though enough moisture likely supports some lightning risk. While the best storm coverage will be displaced from the most receptive fuels, a few strikes and gusty outflow winds are possible farther east where fuels could support some ignition potential. ...Southwest... Beneath the strong upper ridge over the western US, modest easterly mid-level flow will begin to impinge on parts of the Desert Southwest. Aided by local terrain, easterly gusts of 15-20 mph are possible through the day. With warm temperatures and little recent precipitation, afternoon RH values below 15% are expected, along with receptive fuels. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ..Lyons.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Strong ridging over the western US will continue to amplify today and tonight, as a blocking pattern with a cut off flow persists farther east. Strong southwesterly flow will begin to move overtop of the ridge and spread into the northern Rockies/Plains, deepening a lee cyclone/trough in southern Canada. This will support gusty southerly winds and some fire danger over the northern US. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... As the lee trough over the Rockies and southern Canada deepens, southerly low-level flow will increase across MT, the Dakotas and western MN. Ahead of returning surface moisture, several hours of low RH are expected through the afternoon. Area fuels have been mostly dry over the last several days, with little recent rainfall. With gusts to 15-20 mph, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. In addition to the dry and windy conditions, isolated high-based storms are possible over parts of central and eastern MT. With PWAT Values below 0.6 inches, significant rainfall is unlikely, though enough moisture likely supports some lightning risk. While the best storm coverage will be displaced from the most receptive fuels, a few strikes and gusty outflow winds are possible farther east where fuels could support some ignition potential. ...Southwest... Beneath the strong upper ridge over the western US, modest easterly mid-level flow will begin to impinge on parts of the Desert Southwest. Aided by local terrain, easterly gusts of 15-20 mph are possible through the day. With warm temperatures and little recent precipitation, afternoon RH values below 15% are expected, along with receptive fuels. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ..Lyons.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN FL...SRN SC...SRN GA......SRN/WRN AL...CNTRL/ERN MS...CNTRL/ERN MT...WRN ND... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf Coast states on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be accompanied by some risk for severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of central and eastern Montana into western North Dakota late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate little change to the general large-scale pattern through this period, with much of North America remaining under the influence of amplified, split westerlies - stronger across the northern mid-latitudes than across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, significant mid-level troughing, with at least a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations, is forecast to begin digging inland of the northern U.S. Pacific coast. As this occurs, broad downstream ridging will continue slowly eastward across the interior of North America, with the leading edge likely as far east as the St. Lawrence Valley and Northeast by late Sunday night. To the south of this ridge, the center of a broad, initially quasi-stationary mid-level low may begin a very slow acceleration back to the northeast, across the lower Mississippi Valley, in response to the troughing digging into the Northwest. In lower levels, it appears that one initial weak low across the Canadian Prairies will weaken further, as surface troughing deepens upstream, to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. At the same time, cool surface ridging, initially centered across the lower Great Lakes vicinity, is likely to redevelop southeastward off the northern Mid Atlantic coast. Near the southwestern periphery of this ridge, a broad area of lower surface pressure may continue developing inland of the north central Gulf coast, perhaps accompanied by some further boundary-layer moistening inland across parts of the eastern Gulf states. Seasonably high moisture content, though, may remain confined to a narrow plume southeast through south of the mid-level low, from south Carolina and Georgia coastal areas across the Florida Peninsula into the lower latitudes. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/eastern Gulf Coast states... Beneath the modest, difluent southwesterly flow, downstream of the mid/upper low, model forecast soundings continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles could become conducive to widely scattered strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and locally strong surface gusts by Sunday afternoon. Just east of the broad, weak surface low centered over the lower Mississippi Valley, a belt of modest southerly 850 mb flow may contribute to low-level hodographs which may become marginally conducive to a tornado or two. ...North Rockies into adjacent Great Plains... Downstream of the large-scale mid/upper troughing digging into the Northwest, it appears that forcing for ascent in the presence of weak destabilization will become sufficient for at least scattered thunderstorm development. It appears that thermodynamic profiles, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear, may become conducive to storms with at least some potential to produce severe hail across the higher terrain of central Montana. As convection propagates northeastward off the higher terrain of central and southern Montana, across a more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer, downdrafts enhanced by evaporative cooling/melting and downward mixing of stronger flow from aloft probably will contribute to a few strong to severe surface gusts. The latest NAM continues to suggest potential for one or two clusters with consolidating downdrafts and outflow, though now generally across parts of central/eastern Montana and, perhaps, into western North Dakota by late Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN FL...SRN SC...SRN GA......SRN/WRN AL...CNTRL/ERN MS...CNTRL/ERN MT...WRN ND... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf Coast states on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be accompanied by some risk for severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of central and eastern Montana into western North Dakota late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate little change to the general large-scale pattern through this period, with much of North America remaining under the influence of amplified, split westerlies - stronger across the northern mid-latitudes than across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, significant mid-level troughing, with at least a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations, is forecast to begin digging inland of the northern U.S. Pacific coast. As this occurs, broad downstream ridging will continue slowly eastward across the interior of North America, with the leading edge likely as far east as the St. Lawrence Valley and Northeast by late Sunday night. To the south of this ridge, the center of a broad, initially quasi-stationary mid-level low may begin a very slow acceleration back to the northeast, across the lower Mississippi Valley, in response to the troughing digging into the Northwest. In lower levels, it appears that one initial weak low across the Canadian Prairies will weaken further, as surface troughing deepens upstream, to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. At the same time, cool surface ridging, initially centered across the lower Great Lakes vicinity, is likely to redevelop southeastward off the northern Mid Atlantic coast. Near the southwestern periphery of this ridge, a broad area of lower surface pressure may continue developing inland of the north central Gulf coast, perhaps accompanied by some further boundary-layer moistening inland across parts of the eastern Gulf states. Seasonably high moisture content, though, may remain confined to a narrow plume southeast through south of the mid-level low, from south Carolina and Georgia coastal areas across the Florida Peninsula into the lower latitudes. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/eastern Gulf Coast states... Beneath the modest, difluent southwesterly flow, downstream of the mid/upper low, model forecast soundings continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles could become conducive to widely scattered strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and locally strong surface gusts by Sunday afternoon. Just east of the broad, weak surface low centered over the lower Mississippi Valley, a belt of modest southerly 850 mb flow may contribute to low-level hodographs which may become marginally conducive to a tornado or two. ...North Rockies into adjacent Great Plains... Downstream of the large-scale mid/upper troughing digging into the Northwest, it appears that forcing for ascent in the presence of weak destabilization will become sufficient for at least scattered thunderstorm development. It appears that thermodynamic profiles, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear, may become conducive to storms with at least some potential to produce severe hail across the higher terrain of central Montana. As convection propagates northeastward off the higher terrain of central and southern Montana, across a more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer, downdrafts enhanced by evaporative cooling/melting and downward mixing of stronger flow from aloft probably will contribute to a few strong to severe surface gusts. The latest NAM continues to suggest potential for one or two clusters with consolidating downdrafts and outflow, though now generally across parts of central/eastern Montana and, perhaps, into western North Dakota by late Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN FL...SRN SC...SRN GA......SRN/WRN AL...CNTRL/ERN MS...CNTRL/ERN MT...WRN ND... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf Coast states on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be accompanied by some risk for severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of central and eastern Montana into western North Dakota late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate little change to the general large-scale pattern through this period, with much of North America remaining under the influence of amplified, split westerlies - stronger across the northern mid-latitudes than across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, significant mid-level troughing, with at least a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations, is forecast to begin digging inland of the northern U.S. Pacific coast. As this occurs, broad downstream ridging will continue slowly eastward across the interior of North America, with the leading edge likely as far east as the St. Lawrence Valley and Northeast by late Sunday night. To the south of this ridge, the center of a broad, initially quasi-stationary mid-level low may begin a very slow acceleration back to the northeast, across the lower Mississippi Valley, in response to the troughing digging into the Northwest. In lower levels, it appears that one initial weak low across the Canadian Prairies will weaken further, as surface troughing deepens upstream, to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. At the same time, cool surface ridging, initially centered across the lower Great Lakes vicinity, is likely to redevelop southeastward off the northern Mid Atlantic coast. Near the southwestern periphery of this ridge, a broad area of lower surface pressure may continue developing inland of the north central Gulf coast, perhaps accompanied by some further boundary-layer moistening inland across parts of the eastern Gulf states. Seasonably high moisture content, though, may remain confined to a narrow plume southeast through south of the mid-level low, from south Carolina and Georgia coastal areas across the Florida Peninsula into the lower latitudes. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/eastern Gulf Coast states... Beneath the modest, difluent southwesterly flow, downstream of the mid/upper low, model forecast soundings continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles could become conducive to widely scattered strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and locally strong surface gusts by Sunday afternoon. Just east of the broad, weak surface low centered over the lower Mississippi Valley, a belt of modest southerly 850 mb flow may contribute to low-level hodographs which may become marginally conducive to a tornado or two. ...North Rockies into adjacent Great Plains... Downstream of the large-scale mid/upper troughing digging into the Northwest, it appears that forcing for ascent in the presence of weak destabilization will become sufficient for at least scattered thunderstorm development. It appears that thermodynamic profiles, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear, may become conducive to storms with at least some potential to produce severe hail across the higher terrain of central Montana. As convection propagates northeastward off the higher terrain of central and southern Montana, across a more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer, downdrafts enhanced by evaporative cooling/melting and downward mixing of stronger flow from aloft probably will contribute to a few strong to severe surface gusts. The latest NAM continues to suggest potential for one or two clusters with consolidating downdrafts and outflow, though now generally across parts of central/eastern Montana and, perhaps, into western North Dakota by late Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN FL...SRN SC...SRN GA......SRN/WRN AL...CNTRL/ERN MS...CNTRL/ERN MT...WRN ND... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf Coast states on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be accompanied by some risk for severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of central and eastern Montana into western North Dakota late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate little change to the general large-scale pattern through this period, with much of North America remaining under the influence of amplified, split westerlies - stronger across the northern mid-latitudes than across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, significant mid-level troughing, with at least a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations, is forecast to begin digging inland of the northern U.S. Pacific coast. As this occurs, broad downstream ridging will continue slowly eastward across the interior of North America, with the leading edge likely as far east as the St. Lawrence Valley and Northeast by late Sunday night. To the south of this ridge, the center of a broad, initially quasi-stationary mid-level low may begin a very slow acceleration back to the northeast, across the lower Mississippi Valley, in response to the troughing digging into the Northwest. In lower levels, it appears that one initial weak low across the Canadian Prairies will weaken further, as surface troughing deepens upstream, to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. At the same time, cool surface ridging, initially centered across the lower Great Lakes vicinity, is likely to redevelop southeastward off the northern Mid Atlantic coast. Near the southwestern periphery of this ridge, a broad area of lower surface pressure may continue developing inland of the north central Gulf coast, perhaps accompanied by some further boundary-layer moistening inland across parts of the eastern Gulf states. Seasonably high moisture content, though, may remain confined to a narrow plume southeast through south of the mid-level low, from south Carolina and Georgia coastal areas across the Florida Peninsula into the lower latitudes. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/eastern Gulf Coast states... Beneath the modest, difluent southwesterly flow, downstream of the mid/upper low, model forecast soundings continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles could become conducive to widely scattered strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and locally strong surface gusts by Sunday afternoon. Just east of the broad, weak surface low centered over the lower Mississippi Valley, a belt of modest southerly 850 mb flow may contribute to low-level hodographs which may become marginally conducive to a tornado or two. ...North Rockies into adjacent Great Plains... Downstream of the large-scale mid/upper troughing digging into the Northwest, it appears that forcing for ascent in the presence of weak destabilization will become sufficient for at least scattered thunderstorm development. It appears that thermodynamic profiles, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear, may become conducive to storms with at least some potential to produce severe hail across the higher terrain of central Montana. As convection propagates northeastward off the higher terrain of central and southern Montana, across a more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer, downdrafts enhanced by evaporative cooling/melting and downward mixing of stronger flow from aloft probably will contribute to a few strong to severe surface gusts. The latest NAM continues to suggest potential for one or two clusters with consolidating downdrafts and outflow, though now generally across parts of central/eastern Montana and, perhaps, into western North Dakota by late Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN FL...SRN SC...SRN GA......SRN/WRN AL...CNTRL/ERN MS...CNTRL/ERN MT...WRN ND... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf Coast states on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be accompanied by some risk for severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of central and eastern Montana into western North Dakota late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate little change to the general large-scale pattern through this period, with much of North America remaining under the influence of amplified, split westerlies - stronger across the northern mid-latitudes than across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, significant mid-level troughing, with at least a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations, is forecast to begin digging inland of the northern U.S. Pacific coast. As this occurs, broad downstream ridging will continue slowly eastward across the interior of North America, with the leading edge likely as far east as the St. Lawrence Valley and Northeast by late Sunday night. To the south of this ridge, the center of a broad, initially quasi-stationary mid-level low may begin a very slow acceleration back to the northeast, across the lower Mississippi Valley, in response to the troughing digging into the Northwest. In lower levels, it appears that one initial weak low across the Canadian Prairies will weaken further, as surface troughing deepens upstream, to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. At the same time, cool surface ridging, initially centered across the lower Great Lakes vicinity, is likely to redevelop southeastward off the northern Mid Atlantic coast. Near the southwestern periphery of this ridge, a broad area of lower surface pressure may continue developing inland of the north central Gulf coast, perhaps accompanied by some further boundary-layer moistening inland across parts of the eastern Gulf states. Seasonably high moisture content, though, may remain confined to a narrow plume southeast through south of the mid-level low, from south Carolina and Georgia coastal areas across the Florida Peninsula into the lower latitudes. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/eastern Gulf Coast states... Beneath the modest, difluent southwesterly flow, downstream of the mid/upper low, model forecast soundings continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles could become conducive to widely scattered strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and locally strong surface gusts by Sunday afternoon. Just east of the broad, weak surface low centered over the lower Mississippi Valley, a belt of modest southerly 850 mb flow may contribute to low-level hodographs which may become marginally conducive to a tornado or two. ...North Rockies into adjacent Great Plains... Downstream of the large-scale mid/upper troughing digging into the Northwest, it appears that forcing for ascent in the presence of weak destabilization will become sufficient for at least scattered thunderstorm development. It appears that thermodynamic profiles, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear, may become conducive to storms with at least some potential to produce severe hail across the higher terrain of central Montana. As convection propagates northeastward off the higher terrain of central and southern Montana, across a more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer, downdrafts enhanced by evaporative cooling/melting and downward mixing of stronger flow from aloft probably will contribute to a few strong to severe surface gusts. The latest NAM continues to suggest potential for one or two clusters with consolidating downdrafts and outflow, though now generally across parts of central/eastern Montana and, perhaps, into western North Dakota by late Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN FL...SRN SC...SRN GA......SRN/WRN AL...CNTRL/ERN MS...CNTRL/ERN MT...WRN ND... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf Coast states on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be accompanied by some risk for severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of central and eastern Montana into western North Dakota late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate little change to the general large-scale pattern through this period, with much of North America remaining under the influence of amplified, split westerlies - stronger across the northern mid-latitudes than across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, significant mid-level troughing, with at least a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations, is forecast to begin digging inland of the northern U.S. Pacific coast. As this occurs, broad downstream ridging will continue slowly eastward across the interior of North America, with the leading edge likely as far east as the St. Lawrence Valley and Northeast by late Sunday night. To the south of this ridge, the center of a broad, initially quasi-stationary mid-level low may begin a very slow acceleration back to the northeast, across the lower Mississippi Valley, in response to the troughing digging into the Northwest. In lower levels, it appears that one initial weak low across the Canadian Prairies will weaken further, as surface troughing deepens upstream, to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. At the same time, cool surface ridging, initially centered across the lower Great Lakes vicinity, is likely to redevelop southeastward off the northern Mid Atlantic coast. Near the southwestern periphery of this ridge, a broad area of lower surface pressure may continue developing inland of the north central Gulf coast, perhaps accompanied by some further boundary-layer moistening inland across parts of the eastern Gulf states. Seasonably high moisture content, though, may remain confined to a narrow plume southeast through south of the mid-level low, from south Carolina and Georgia coastal areas across the Florida Peninsula into the lower latitudes. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/eastern Gulf Coast states... Beneath the modest, difluent southwesterly flow, downstream of the mid/upper low, model forecast soundings continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles could become conducive to widely scattered strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and locally strong surface gusts by Sunday afternoon. Just east of the broad, weak surface low centered over the lower Mississippi Valley, a belt of modest southerly 850 mb flow may contribute to low-level hodographs which may become marginally conducive to a tornado or two. ...North Rockies into adjacent Great Plains... Downstream of the large-scale mid/upper troughing digging into the Northwest, it appears that forcing for ascent in the presence of weak destabilization will become sufficient for at least scattered thunderstorm development. It appears that thermodynamic profiles, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear, may become conducive to storms with at least some potential to produce severe hail across the higher terrain of central Montana. As convection propagates northeastward off the higher terrain of central and southern Montana, across a more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer, downdrafts enhanced by evaporative cooling/melting and downward mixing of stronger flow from aloft probably will contribute to a few strong to severe surface gusts. The latest NAM continues to suggest potential for one or two clusters with consolidating downdrafts and outflow, though now generally across parts of central/eastern Montana and, perhaps, into western North Dakota by late Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southeast today, and the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level low will meander over Louisiana today with troughing encompassing the western Gulf basin. In the low levels, a weak surface low is forecast to move northward and inland from the MS/AL coast, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. Farther west, a belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend from the Pacific Northwest into the southern Prairie Provinces, downstream of an eastward migrating trough forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest coast early Sunday morning. The higher-momentum flow is expected to glance the northern High Plains. ...FL into far southern GA/AL... A moist and moderately unstable air mass will exist south of the frontal zone. Scattered to numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. A few of the stronger storms may organize given the veering wind profiles and sufficient effective shear. An isolated risk for all hazards may develop over the FL Panhandle during the day, while smaller hodographs farther south into the Peninsula will tend to favor mostly an isolated hail/wind farther south. ...MT/ID... Strong heating and orographic lift over southwest MT will favor widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast MT during the evening. Farther south, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast during the afternoon. Similar to farther north, steep lapse rates will favor isolated severe gusts with the stronger cores. ..Smith/Lyons.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southeast today, and the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level low will meander over Louisiana today with troughing encompassing the western Gulf basin. In the low levels, a weak surface low is forecast to move northward and inland from the MS/AL coast, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. Farther west, a belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend from the Pacific Northwest into the southern Prairie Provinces, downstream of an eastward migrating trough forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest coast early Sunday morning. The higher-momentum flow is expected to glance the northern High Plains. ...FL into far southern GA/AL... A moist and moderately unstable air mass will exist south of the frontal zone. Scattered to numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. A few of the stronger storms may organize given the veering wind profiles and sufficient effective shear. An isolated risk for all hazards may develop over the FL Panhandle during the day, while smaller hodographs farther south into the Peninsula will tend to favor mostly an isolated hail/wind farther south. ...MT/ID... Strong heating and orographic lift over southwest MT will favor widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast MT during the evening. Farther south, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast during the afternoon. Similar to farther north, steep lapse rates will favor isolated severe gusts with the stronger cores. ..Smith/Lyons.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southeast today, and the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level low will meander over Louisiana today with troughing encompassing the western Gulf basin. In the low levels, a weak surface low is forecast to move northward and inland from the MS/AL coast, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. Farther west, a belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend from the Pacific Northwest into the southern Prairie Provinces, downstream of an eastward migrating trough forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest coast early Sunday morning. The higher-momentum flow is expected to glance the northern High Plains. ...FL into far southern GA/AL... A moist and moderately unstable air mass will exist south of the frontal zone. Scattered to numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. A few of the stronger storms may organize given the veering wind profiles and sufficient effective shear. An isolated risk for all hazards may develop over the FL Panhandle during the day, while smaller hodographs farther south into the Peninsula will tend to favor mostly an isolated hail/wind farther south. ...MT/ID... Strong heating and orographic lift over southwest MT will favor widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast MT during the evening. Farther south, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast during the afternoon. Similar to farther north, steep lapse rates will favor isolated severe gusts with the stronger cores. ..Smith/Lyons.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southeast today, and the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level low will meander over Louisiana today with troughing encompassing the western Gulf basin. In the low levels, a weak surface low is forecast to move northward and inland from the MS/AL coast, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. Farther west, a belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend from the Pacific Northwest into the southern Prairie Provinces, downstream of an eastward migrating trough forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest coast early Sunday morning. The higher-momentum flow is expected to glance the northern High Plains. ...FL into far southern GA/AL... A moist and moderately unstable air mass will exist south of the frontal zone. Scattered to numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. A few of the stronger storms may organize given the veering wind profiles and sufficient effective shear. An isolated risk for all hazards may develop over the FL Panhandle during the day, while smaller hodographs farther south into the Peninsula will tend to favor mostly an isolated hail/wind farther south. ...MT/ID... Strong heating and orographic lift over southwest MT will favor widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast MT during the evening. Farther south, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast during the afternoon. Similar to farther north, steep lapse rates will favor isolated severe gusts with the stronger cores. ..Smith/Lyons.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southeast today, and the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level low will meander over Louisiana today with troughing encompassing the western Gulf basin. In the low levels, a weak surface low is forecast to move northward and inland from the MS/AL coast, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. Farther west, a belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend from the Pacific Northwest into the southern Prairie Provinces, downstream of an eastward migrating trough forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest coast early Sunday morning. The higher-momentum flow is expected to glance the northern High Plains. ...FL into far southern GA/AL... A moist and moderately unstable air mass will exist south of the frontal zone. Scattered to numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. A few of the stronger storms may organize given the veering wind profiles and sufficient effective shear. An isolated risk for all hazards may develop over the FL Panhandle during the day, while smaller hodographs farther south into the Peninsula will tend to favor mostly an isolated hail/wind farther south. ...MT/ID... Strong heating and orographic lift over southwest MT will favor widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast MT during the evening. Farther south, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast during the afternoon. Similar to farther north, steep lapse rates will favor isolated severe gusts with the stronger cores. ..Smith/Lyons.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southeast today, and the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level low will meander over Louisiana today with troughing encompassing the western Gulf basin. In the low levels, a weak surface low is forecast to move northward and inland from the MS/AL coast, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. Farther west, a belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend from the Pacific Northwest into the southern Prairie Provinces, downstream of an eastward migrating trough forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest coast early Sunday morning. The higher-momentum flow is expected to glance the northern High Plains. ...FL into far southern GA/AL... A moist and moderately unstable air mass will exist south of the frontal zone. Scattered to numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. A few of the stronger storms may organize given the veering wind profiles and sufficient effective shear. An isolated risk for all hazards may develop over the FL Panhandle during the day, while smaller hodographs farther south into the Peninsula will tend to favor mostly an isolated hail/wind farther south. ...MT/ID... Strong heating and orographic lift over southwest MT will favor widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast MT during the evening. Farther south, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast during the afternoon. Similar to farther north, steep lapse rates will favor isolated severe gusts with the stronger cores. ..Smith/Lyons.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southeast today, and the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level low will meander over Louisiana today with troughing encompassing the western Gulf basin. In the low levels, a weak surface low is forecast to move northward and inland from the MS/AL coast, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. Farther west, a belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend from the Pacific Northwest into the southern Prairie Provinces, downstream of an eastward migrating trough forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest coast early Sunday morning. The higher-momentum flow is expected to glance the northern High Plains. ...FL into far southern GA/AL... A moist and moderately unstable air mass will exist south of the frontal zone. Scattered to numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. A few of the stronger storms may organize given the veering wind profiles and sufficient effective shear. An isolated risk for all hazards may develop over the FL Panhandle during the day, while smaller hodographs farther south into the Peninsula will tend to favor mostly an isolated hail/wind farther south. ...MT/ID... Strong heating and orographic lift over southwest MT will favor widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast MT during the evening. Farther south, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast during the afternoon. Similar to farther north, steep lapse rates will favor isolated severe gusts with the stronger cores. ..Smith/Lyons.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southeast today, and the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level low will meander over Louisiana today with troughing encompassing the western Gulf basin. In the low levels, a weak surface low is forecast to move northward and inland from the MS/AL coast, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. Farther west, a belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend from the Pacific Northwest into the southern Prairie Provinces, downstream of an eastward migrating trough forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest coast early Sunday morning. The higher-momentum flow is expected to glance the northern High Plains. ...FL into far southern GA/AL... A moist and moderately unstable air mass will exist south of the frontal zone. Scattered to numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. A few of the stronger storms may organize given the veering wind profiles and sufficient effective shear. An isolated risk for all hazards may develop over the FL Panhandle during the day, while smaller hodographs farther south into the Peninsula will tend to favor mostly an isolated hail/wind farther south. ...MT/ID... Strong heating and orographic lift over southwest MT will favor widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast MT during the evening. Farther south, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast during the afternoon. Similar to farther north, steep lapse rates will favor isolated severe gusts with the stronger cores. ..Smith/Lyons.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE MOBILE BAY VICINITY... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE ERROR ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe risk may develop tonight over portions of the northern Gulf Coast. ...Discussion... Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a split-flow regime over North America. A mid-level trough over the Mid-Atlantic states will move northeast to southern New England, while a slow-moving mid-level low meanders over the north Gulf Coast through early Saturday morning. Model guidance indicates weak cyclogenesis over the northern Gulf of America tonight with this low moving to near Mobile Bay by daybreak Saturday. A strengthening of low-level warm-air advection and associated flow may aid supporting an environment where a few stronger storms develop tonight from the shelf waters inland into the region centered on the FL Panhandle. Forecast soundings show weakly buoyant profiles with some enlargement to the hodograph. A transient supercell capable of a brief tornado/wind damage near the coast would be the primary threat. Elsewhere, convective overturning across parts of the Southeast and the onset of nocturnal cooling will continue to lead to weakening thunderstorm activity this evening. ..Smith.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE MOBILE BAY VICINITY... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE ERROR ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe risk may develop tonight over portions of the northern Gulf Coast. ...Discussion... Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a split-flow regime over North America. A mid-level trough over the Mid-Atlantic states will move northeast to southern New England, while a slow-moving mid-level low meanders over the north Gulf Coast through early Saturday morning. Model guidance indicates weak cyclogenesis over the northern Gulf of America tonight with this low moving to near Mobile Bay by daybreak Saturday. A strengthening of low-level warm-air advection and associated flow may aid supporting an environment where a few stronger storms develop tonight from the shelf waters inland into the region centered on the FL Panhandle. Forecast soundings show weakly buoyant profiles with some enlargement to the hodograph. A transient supercell capable of a brief tornado/wind damage near the coast would be the primary threat. Elsewhere, convective overturning across parts of the Southeast and the onset of nocturnal cooling will continue to lead to weakening thunderstorm activity this evening. ..Smith.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE MOBILE BAY VICINITY... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE ERROR ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe risk may develop tonight over portions of the northern Gulf Coast. ...Discussion... Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a split-flow regime over North America. A mid-level trough over the Mid-Atlantic states will move northeast to southern New England, while a slow-moving mid-level low meanders over the north Gulf Coast through early Saturday morning. Model guidance indicates weak cyclogenesis over the northern Gulf of America tonight with this low moving to near Mobile Bay by daybreak Saturday. A strengthening of low-level warm-air advection and associated flow may aid supporting an environment where a few stronger storms develop tonight from the shelf waters inland into the region centered on the FL Panhandle. Forecast soundings show weakly buoyant profiles with some enlargement to the hodograph. A transient supercell capable of a brief tornado/wind damage near the coast would be the primary threat. Elsewhere, convective overturning across parts of the Southeast and the onset of nocturnal cooling will continue to lead to weakening thunderstorm activity this evening. ..Smith.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE MOBILE BAY VICINITY... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE ERROR ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe risk may develop tonight over portions of the northern Gulf Coast. ...Discussion... Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a split-flow regime over North America. A mid-level trough over the Mid-Atlantic states will move northeast to southern New England, while a slow-moving mid-level low meanders over the north Gulf Coast through early Saturday morning. Model guidance indicates weak cyclogenesis over the northern Gulf of America tonight with this low moving to near Mobile Bay by daybreak Saturday. A strengthening of low-level warm-air advection and associated flow may aid supporting an environment where a few stronger storms develop tonight from the shelf waters inland into the region centered on the FL Panhandle. Forecast soundings show weakly buoyant profiles with some enlargement to the hodograph. A transient supercell capable of a brief tornado/wind damage near the coast would be the primary threat. Elsewhere, convective overturning across parts of the Southeast and the onset of nocturnal cooling will continue to lead to weakening thunderstorm activity this evening. ..Smith.. 05/10/2025 Read more