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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE MOBILE BAY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe risk may develop tonight over portions of the northern Gulf Coast. ...Discussion... Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a split-flow regime over North America. A mid-level trough over the Mid-Atlantic states will move northeast to southern New England, while a slow-moving mid-level low meanders over the north Gulf Coast through early Saturday morning. Model guidance indicates weak cyclogenesis over the northern Gulf of America tonight with this low moving to near Mobile Bay by daybreak Saturday. A strengthening of low-level warm-air advection and associated flow may aid supporting an environment where a few stronger storms develop tonight from the shelf waters inland into the region centered on the FL Panhandle. Forecast soundings show weakly buoyant profiles with some enlargement to the hodograph. A transient supercell capable of a brief tornado/wind damage near the coast would be the primary threat. Elsewhere, convective overturning across parts of the Southeast and the onset of nocturnal cooling will continue to lead to weakening thunderstorm activity this evening. ..Smith.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE MOBILE BAY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe risk may develop tonight over portions of the northern Gulf Coast. ...Discussion... Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a split-flow regime over North America. A mid-level trough over the Mid-Atlantic states will move northeast to southern New England, while a slow-moving mid-level low meanders over the north Gulf Coast through early Saturday morning. Model guidance indicates weak cyclogenesis over the northern Gulf of America tonight with this low moving to near Mobile Bay by daybreak Saturday. A strengthening of low-level warm-air advection and associated flow may aid supporting an environment where a few stronger storms develop tonight from the shelf waters inland into the region centered on the FL Panhandle. Forecast soundings show weakly buoyant profiles with some enlargement to the hodograph. A transient supercell capable of a brief tornado/wind damage near the coast would be the primary threat. Elsewhere, convective overturning across parts of the Southeast and the onset of nocturnal cooling will continue to lead to weakening thunderstorm activity this evening. ..Smith.. 05/10/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri May 9 22:23:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May 9 22:23:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z An upper-level trough will slowly translate eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West through the middle of next week, while a cutoff low across the Deep South will gradually shift eastward bringing widespread, heavy rainfall to much of the Southeastern U.S. The upper-level trough will bring a range of fire weather impacts to much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday with eventual very warm, dry and breezy conditions returning to the Southwest next week. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... The approach of the upper-level trough and associated warming will result in temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal across portions of the Dakotas Day 3/4 - Sunday/Monday. The cutoff low across the Southeast will inhibit low-level moisture return to the Northern Plains region early next week allowing stronger southerly winds combined with dry fuels and low relative humidity will allow for a elevated, possibly critical fire weather threat across the region. ...Great Basin to Southwest... A strong mid-level jet rounding the base of the slow moving upper-trough will bring a multi-day fire weather threat to portions of the Southwest beginning Day 4/Monday, potentially into Day 7/Thursday. Warm, dry and windy conditions are expected to set up across the Great Basin Day 3/4 - Sunday/Monday but fuels are not yet receptive with green-up occurring across the region. Dry fuels remain across portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where highest fire weather concern exists for Day 5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday as a strong mid-level jet enters the region. 40 percent critical probabilities were introduced given higher forecast confidence. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z An upper-level trough will slowly translate eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West through the middle of next week, while a cutoff low across the Deep South will gradually shift eastward bringing widespread, heavy rainfall to much of the Southeastern U.S. The upper-level trough will bring a range of fire weather impacts to much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday with eventual very warm, dry and breezy conditions returning to the Southwest next week. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... The approach of the upper-level trough and associated warming will result in temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal across portions of the Dakotas Day 3/4 - Sunday/Monday. The cutoff low across the Southeast will inhibit low-level moisture return to the Northern Plains region early next week allowing stronger southerly winds combined with dry fuels and low relative humidity will allow for a elevated, possibly critical fire weather threat across the region. ...Great Basin to Southwest... A strong mid-level jet rounding the base of the slow moving upper-trough will bring a multi-day fire weather threat to portions of the Southwest beginning Day 4/Monday, potentially into Day 7/Thursday. Warm, dry and windy conditions are expected to set up across the Great Basin Day 3/4 - Sunday/Monday but fuels are not yet receptive with green-up occurring across the region. Dry fuels remain across portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where highest fire weather concern exists for Day 5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday as a strong mid-level jet enters the region. 40 percent critical probabilities were introduced given higher forecast confidence. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z An upper-level trough will slowly translate eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West through the middle of next week, while a cutoff low across the Deep South will gradually shift eastward bringing widespread, heavy rainfall to much of the Southeastern U.S. The upper-level trough will bring a range of fire weather impacts to much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday with eventual very warm, dry and breezy conditions returning to the Southwest next week. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... The approach of the upper-level trough and associated warming will result in temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal across portions of the Dakotas Day 3/4 - Sunday/Monday. The cutoff low across the Southeast will inhibit low-level moisture return to the Northern Plains region early next week allowing stronger southerly winds combined with dry fuels and low relative humidity will allow for a elevated, possibly critical fire weather threat across the region. ...Great Basin to Southwest... A strong mid-level jet rounding the base of the slow moving upper-trough will bring a multi-day fire weather threat to portions of the Southwest beginning Day 4/Monday, potentially into Day 7/Thursday. Warm, dry and windy conditions are expected to set up across the Great Basin Day 3/4 - Sunday/Monday but fuels are not yet receptive with green-up occurring across the region. Dry fuels remain across portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where highest fire weather concern exists for Day 5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday as a strong mid-level jet enters the region. 40 percent critical probabilities were introduced given higher forecast confidence. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z An upper-level trough will slowly translate eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West through the middle of next week, while a cutoff low across the Deep South will gradually shift eastward bringing widespread, heavy rainfall to much of the Southeastern U.S. The upper-level trough will bring a range of fire weather impacts to much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday with eventual very warm, dry and breezy conditions returning to the Southwest next week. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... The approach of the upper-level trough and associated warming will result in temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal across portions of the Dakotas Day 3/4 - Sunday/Monday. The cutoff low across the Southeast will inhibit low-level moisture return to the Northern Plains region early next week allowing stronger southerly winds combined with dry fuels and low relative humidity will allow for a elevated, possibly critical fire weather threat across the region. ...Great Basin to Southwest... A strong mid-level jet rounding the base of the slow moving upper-trough will bring a multi-day fire weather threat to portions of the Southwest beginning Day 4/Monday, potentially into Day 7/Thursday. Warm, dry and windy conditions are expected to set up across the Great Basin Day 3/4 - Sunday/Monday but fuels are not yet receptive with green-up occurring across the region. Dry fuels remain across portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where highest fire weather concern exists for Day 5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday as a strong mid-level jet enters the region. 40 percent critical probabilities were introduced given higher forecast confidence. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z An upper-level trough will slowly translate eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West through the middle of next week, while a cutoff low across the Deep South will gradually shift eastward bringing widespread, heavy rainfall to much of the Southeastern U.S. The upper-level trough will bring a range of fire weather impacts to much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday with eventual very warm, dry and breezy conditions returning to the Southwest next week. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... The approach of the upper-level trough and associated warming will result in temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal across portions of the Dakotas Day 3/4 - Sunday/Monday. The cutoff low across the Southeast will inhibit low-level moisture return to the Northern Plains region early next week allowing stronger southerly winds combined with dry fuels and low relative humidity will allow for a elevated, possibly critical fire weather threat across the region. ...Great Basin to Southwest... A strong mid-level jet rounding the base of the slow moving upper-trough will bring a multi-day fire weather threat to portions of the Southwest beginning Day 4/Monday, potentially into Day 7/Thursday. Warm, dry and windy conditions are expected to set up across the Great Basin Day 3/4 - Sunday/Monday but fuels are not yet receptive with green-up occurring across the region. Dry fuels remain across portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where highest fire weather concern exists for Day 5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday as a strong mid-level jet enters the region. 40 percent critical probabilities were introduced given higher forecast confidence. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z An upper-level trough will slowly translate eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West through the middle of next week, while a cutoff low across the Deep South will gradually shift eastward bringing widespread, heavy rainfall to much of the Southeastern U.S. The upper-level trough will bring a range of fire weather impacts to much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday with eventual very warm, dry and breezy conditions returning to the Southwest next week. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... The approach of the upper-level trough and associated warming will result in temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal across portions of the Dakotas Day 3/4 - Sunday/Monday. The cutoff low across the Southeast will inhibit low-level moisture return to the Northern Plains region early next week allowing stronger southerly winds combined with dry fuels and low relative humidity will allow for a elevated, possibly critical fire weather threat across the region. ...Great Basin to Southwest... A strong mid-level jet rounding the base of the slow moving upper-trough will bring a multi-day fire weather threat to portions of the Southwest beginning Day 4/Monday, potentially into Day 7/Thursday. Warm, dry and windy conditions are expected to set up across the Great Basin Day 3/4 - Sunday/Monday but fuels are not yet receptive with green-up occurring across the region. Dry fuels remain across portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where highest fire weather concern exists for Day 5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday as a strong mid-level jet enters the region. 40 percent critical probabilities were introduced given higher forecast confidence. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

North Carolina residents in coastal counties that are in severe drought were urged by the North Carolina Drought Management Advisory Council to limit nonessential water use. Counties experiencing severe drought included Beaufort, Craven, New Hanover, Onslow, Pender, Columbus, Martin and Washington. Coastal Review (Newport, N.C.), May 6, 2025

Intense drought in South Florida has parched parts of the Everglades, leaving muddy canals for wildlife, killing fish, and forcing local tourism businesses that rely on water to close. WFOR-TV CBS 4 Miami (Fla.), April 25, 2025

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Northern Plains... Surface lee trough development across the Saskatchewan/Alberta Canadian provinces will promote increasing south-southwest winds across the Northern Plains Saturday. A dry boundary layer present over receptive fuels combined with south-southwest winds of 10-20 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions across northeastern Montana and western North Dakota where Elevated highlights were introduced. The driest surface conditions are expected across eastern Montana with stronger low-level winds offset farther east in the Dakotas. ...Southeast Arizona and far Southwest New Mexico... Surface high pressure across the Colorado Plateau along with inverted surface trough across Baja California will support elevated southeast winds across southeastern Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. Relative humidity is expected to drop close to 10 percent in some lower elevation areas. These winds and low relative humidity, combined with dry fuels in an area of extreme drought, supports addition of Elevated highlights within this area. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will shift into the Plains on Saturday, as a compact shortwave trough exits the Northeast. Beneath the building ridge, an upper low will meander about the Southeastern US as the mid-level flow pattern remains blocked. Troughing will slowly deepen over the eastern Pacific amplifying the upper-level pattern. ...Northern Plains... Despite the relatively stagnant upper air pattern strong flow aloft will begin to move over the Ridge across the Rockies and into the northern US. This will support slow deepening of a lee trough Saturday afternoon. Low-level winds will veer to southerly and strengthen through the weekend as dry surface conditions develop. While widespread critical RH and winds are not expected, a few hours of southerly gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 35% are possible. This appears most likely over parts of the Dakotas and western MN. As fuels continue to dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions may develop. However, the lack of stronger winds and overlap with the driest fuels should prevent more widespread concerns for Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Northern Plains... Surface lee trough development across the Saskatchewan/Alberta Canadian provinces will promote increasing south-southwest winds across the Northern Plains Saturday. A dry boundary layer present over receptive fuels combined with south-southwest winds of 10-20 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions across northeastern Montana and western North Dakota where Elevated highlights were introduced. The driest surface conditions are expected across eastern Montana with stronger low-level winds offset farther east in the Dakotas. ...Southeast Arizona and far Southwest New Mexico... Surface high pressure across the Colorado Plateau along with inverted surface trough across Baja California will support elevated southeast winds across southeastern Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. Relative humidity is expected to drop close to 10 percent in some lower elevation areas. These winds and low relative humidity, combined with dry fuels in an area of extreme drought, supports addition of Elevated highlights within this area. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will shift into the Plains on Saturday, as a compact shortwave trough exits the Northeast. Beneath the building ridge, an upper low will meander about the Southeastern US as the mid-level flow pattern remains blocked. Troughing will slowly deepen over the eastern Pacific amplifying the upper-level pattern. ...Northern Plains... Despite the relatively stagnant upper air pattern strong flow aloft will begin to move over the Ridge across the Rockies and into the northern US. This will support slow deepening of a lee trough Saturday afternoon. Low-level winds will veer to southerly and strengthen through the weekend as dry surface conditions develop. While widespread critical RH and winds are not expected, a few hours of southerly gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 35% are possible. This appears most likely over parts of the Dakotas and western MN. As fuels continue to dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions may develop. However, the lack of stronger winds and overlap with the driest fuels should prevent more widespread concerns for Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Northern Plains... Surface lee trough development across the Saskatchewan/Alberta Canadian provinces will promote increasing south-southwest winds across the Northern Plains Saturday. A dry boundary layer present over receptive fuels combined with south-southwest winds of 10-20 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions across northeastern Montana and western North Dakota where Elevated highlights were introduced. The driest surface conditions are expected across eastern Montana with stronger low-level winds offset farther east in the Dakotas. ...Southeast Arizona and far Southwest New Mexico... Surface high pressure across the Colorado Plateau along with inverted surface trough across Baja California will support elevated southeast winds across southeastern Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. Relative humidity is expected to drop close to 10 percent in some lower elevation areas. These winds and low relative humidity, combined with dry fuels in an area of extreme drought, supports addition of Elevated highlights within this area. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will shift into the Plains on Saturday, as a compact shortwave trough exits the Northeast. Beneath the building ridge, an upper low will meander about the Southeastern US as the mid-level flow pattern remains blocked. Troughing will slowly deepen over the eastern Pacific amplifying the upper-level pattern. ...Northern Plains... Despite the relatively stagnant upper air pattern strong flow aloft will begin to move over the Ridge across the Rockies and into the northern US. This will support slow deepening of a lee trough Saturday afternoon. Low-level winds will veer to southerly and strengthen through the weekend as dry surface conditions develop. While widespread critical RH and winds are not expected, a few hours of southerly gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 35% are possible. This appears most likely over parts of the Dakotas and western MN. As fuels continue to dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions may develop. However, the lack of stronger winds and overlap with the driest fuels should prevent more widespread concerns for Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Northern Plains... Surface lee trough development across the Saskatchewan/Alberta Canadian provinces will promote increasing south-southwest winds across the Northern Plains Saturday. A dry boundary layer present over receptive fuels combined with south-southwest winds of 10-20 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions across northeastern Montana and western North Dakota where Elevated highlights were introduced. The driest surface conditions are expected across eastern Montana with stronger low-level winds offset farther east in the Dakotas. ...Southeast Arizona and far Southwest New Mexico... Surface high pressure across the Colorado Plateau along with inverted surface trough across Baja California will support elevated southeast winds across southeastern Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. Relative humidity is expected to drop close to 10 percent in some lower elevation areas. These winds and low relative humidity, combined with dry fuels in an area of extreme drought, supports addition of Elevated highlights within this area. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will shift into the Plains on Saturday, as a compact shortwave trough exits the Northeast. Beneath the building ridge, an upper low will meander about the Southeastern US as the mid-level flow pattern remains blocked. Troughing will slowly deepen over the eastern Pacific amplifying the upper-level pattern. ...Northern Plains... Despite the relatively stagnant upper air pattern strong flow aloft will begin to move over the Ridge across the Rockies and into the northern US. This will support slow deepening of a lee trough Saturday afternoon. Low-level winds will veer to southerly and strengthen through the weekend as dry surface conditions develop. While widespread critical RH and winds are not expected, a few hours of southerly gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 35% are possible. This appears most likely over parts of the Dakotas and western MN. As fuels continue to dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions may develop. However, the lack of stronger winds and overlap with the driest fuels should prevent more widespread concerns for Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Northern Plains... Surface lee trough development across the Saskatchewan/Alberta Canadian provinces will promote increasing south-southwest winds across the Northern Plains Saturday. A dry boundary layer present over receptive fuels combined with south-southwest winds of 10-20 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions across northeastern Montana and western North Dakota where Elevated highlights were introduced. The driest surface conditions are expected across eastern Montana with stronger low-level winds offset farther east in the Dakotas. ...Southeast Arizona and far Southwest New Mexico... Surface high pressure across the Colorado Plateau along with inverted surface trough across Baja California will support elevated southeast winds across southeastern Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. Relative humidity is expected to drop close to 10 percent in some lower elevation areas. These winds and low relative humidity, combined with dry fuels in an area of extreme drought, supports addition of Elevated highlights within this area. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will shift into the Plains on Saturday, as a compact shortwave trough exits the Northeast. Beneath the building ridge, an upper low will meander about the Southeastern US as the mid-level flow pattern remains blocked. Troughing will slowly deepen over the eastern Pacific amplifying the upper-level pattern. ...Northern Plains... Despite the relatively stagnant upper air pattern strong flow aloft will begin to move over the Ridge across the Rockies and into the northern US. This will support slow deepening of a lee trough Saturday afternoon. Low-level winds will veer to southerly and strengthen through the weekend as dry surface conditions develop. While widespread critical RH and winds are not expected, a few hours of southerly gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 35% are possible. This appears most likely over parts of the Dakotas and western MN. As fuels continue to dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions may develop. However, the lack of stronger winds and overlap with the driest fuels should prevent more widespread concerns for Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Northern Plains... Surface lee trough development across the Saskatchewan/Alberta Canadian provinces will promote increasing south-southwest winds across the Northern Plains Saturday. A dry boundary layer present over receptive fuels combined with south-southwest winds of 10-20 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions across northeastern Montana and western North Dakota where Elevated highlights were introduced. The driest surface conditions are expected across eastern Montana with stronger low-level winds offset farther east in the Dakotas. ...Southeast Arizona and far Southwest New Mexico... Surface high pressure across the Colorado Plateau along with inverted surface trough across Baja California will support elevated southeast winds across southeastern Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. Relative humidity is expected to drop close to 10 percent in some lower elevation areas. These winds and low relative humidity, combined with dry fuels in an area of extreme drought, supports addition of Elevated highlights within this area. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will shift into the Plains on Saturday, as a compact shortwave trough exits the Northeast. Beneath the building ridge, an upper low will meander about the Southeastern US as the mid-level flow pattern remains blocked. Troughing will slowly deepen over the eastern Pacific amplifying the upper-level pattern. ...Northern Plains... Despite the relatively stagnant upper air pattern strong flow aloft will begin to move over the Ridge across the Rockies and into the northern US. This will support slow deepening of a lee trough Saturday afternoon. Low-level winds will veer to southerly and strengthen through the weekend as dry surface conditions develop. While widespread critical RH and winds are not expected, a few hours of southerly gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 35% are possible. This appears most likely over parts of the Dakotas and western MN. As fuels continue to dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions may develop. However, the lack of stronger winds and overlap with the driest fuels should prevent more widespread concerns for Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Northern Plains... Surface lee trough development across the Saskatchewan/Alberta Canadian provinces will promote increasing south-southwest winds across the Northern Plains Saturday. A dry boundary layer present over receptive fuels combined with south-southwest winds of 10-20 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions across northeastern Montana and western North Dakota where Elevated highlights were introduced. The driest surface conditions are expected across eastern Montana with stronger low-level winds offset farther east in the Dakotas. ...Southeast Arizona and far Southwest New Mexico... Surface high pressure across the Colorado Plateau along with inverted surface trough across Baja California will support elevated southeast winds across southeastern Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. Relative humidity is expected to drop close to 10 percent in some lower elevation areas. These winds and low relative humidity, combined with dry fuels in an area of extreme drought, supports addition of Elevated highlights within this area. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will shift into the Plains on Saturday, as a compact shortwave trough exits the Northeast. Beneath the building ridge, an upper low will meander about the Southeastern US as the mid-level flow pattern remains blocked. Troughing will slowly deepen over the eastern Pacific amplifying the upper-level pattern. ...Northern Plains... Despite the relatively stagnant upper air pattern strong flow aloft will begin to move over the Ridge across the Rockies and into the northern US. This will support slow deepening of a lee trough Saturday afternoon. Low-level winds will veer to southerly and strengthen through the weekend as dry surface conditions develop. While widespread critical RH and winds are not expected, a few hours of southerly gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 35% are possible. This appears most likely over parts of the Dakotas and western MN. As fuels continue to dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions may develop. However, the lack of stronger winds and overlap with the driest fuels should prevent more widespread concerns for Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, especially from the eastern Florida Peninsula through southeast Georgia, and across northeastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the forecast with this update. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and northern/central FL, reference MCDs #753 and #754. For the overnight and early morning time frame, a locally favorable corridor for tornadoes/waterspouts may develop in the vicinity of the western FL Panhandle -- focused ahead of a well-defined MCV tracking eastward across the north-central Gulf. However, confidence in adding higher tornado probabilities is too low at this time, given ongoing/additional convection and related boundary-layer overturning. ..Weinman.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones embedded within a large positively titled upper trough extending from the southern Plains through the Northeast. The northernmost/easternmost cyclone is centered over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity, and is forecast to move gradually eastward throughout the day, ending the period over southern New England. An associated surface low, which is currently centered over eastern NJ, is forecast to progress northeastward while becoming increasingly aligned with the mid-level cyclone. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across VA and then back westward across KY, southern IL, and central MO. As the low moves northeastward, this front is expected to gradually push southward/southeastward, moving through much of the Mid-Atlantic by this evening. The southernmost/westernmost embedded cyclone is currently centered over southern AR, and the expectation is for the cyclone to shift southeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Lower MS Valley. Primary surface low associated with this system is currently over the northwest Gulf. This low is forecast to progress slowly eastward along the central Gulf coast, remaining just off shore and likely reaching just off AL/MS border intersection by early tomorrow morning. ...Central Gulf Coast into FL... A modest, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum is forecast to move from the central FL Panhandle into southeast GA/northern FL today, well ahead of the mid-level cyclone and associated surface low described in the synopsis. Localized ascent attendant to this features coupled with modest large-scale forcing for ascent and airmass destabilization will result in early-afternoon thunderstorm development, particularly along any sea breeze boundary that develops. Vertical shear will be modest, resulting in a mostly multicellular mode. Even so, updrafts are still expected to be strong enough to produce damaging downbursts and isolated large hail. Later tonight, some additional organization/strengthening of a convective line near the surface low is possible. Some strengthening of the low-level flow could occur at the same time, resulting in a low-probability tornado risk along the coast from AL into the western and central FL Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, with the highest coverage from the VA Tidewater into east-central NC, where forcing along the cold front will be strongest. The strongest shear is anticipated across this region as well, but the overall magnitude should still be modest, with most guidance suggesting deep-layer shear around 35 kt. Buoyancy will be modest as well, with MLCAPE likely maximizing around 800 to 1000 J/kg. These environmental conditions support the potential for a few stronger, more organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. Read more