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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA AND FAR SOUTHEAST VA/NORTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Southeast, but especially areas such as the northern Florida Peninsula and eastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...Florida/coastal Southeast... Weak height falls and strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will occur later today into tonight preceding the upper trough along the middle Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi River Valley, with an MCS over the west-central/north-central Gulf also a factor. The relatively greatest destabilization is expected today across the northern/central Florida Peninsula and nearby Georgia, where guidance is in generally good agreement that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000-3000 J/kg range this afternoon. As instability increases during the day, thunderstorms are expected to develop with sea breeze influences, with isolated large hail and damaging winds possible. Elsewhere, influences from the aforementioned MCS over the Gulf should limited severe potential farther west along the middle Gulf Coast, although some measure of recovery and weak cyclogenesis could occur later tonight toward far southeast Louisiana to Florida Panhandle vicinity. ...Carolinas/southeast Virginia/southern Maryland... The closed upper low will shift generally eastward over the central/northern Appalachians and northern Mid-Atlantic region today, with a cyclonically curved belt of strong westerlies in its base and attendant mid-level cold pocket (-18C to -24C at 500 mb). Some showers/possibly a thunderstorm will exit the region and move into the Atlantic today, with modest air mass recovery/destabilization in its wake preceding a surface low/reinforcing front. While the magnitude of the severe risk is not entirely clear, the main opportunity for later-day strong/locally severe storm development would appear to be across far southeast Virginia and far northeast North Carolina. Strong wind profiles would support organized storms pending sufficient destabilization, with potential for severe hail and damaging winds, at least on an isolated basis, primarily from mid-afternoon through sunset or early evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA AND FAR SOUTHEAST VA/NORTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Southeast, but especially areas such as the northern Florida Peninsula and eastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...Florida/coastal Southeast... Weak height falls and strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will occur later today into tonight preceding the upper trough along the middle Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi River Valley, with an MCS over the west-central/north-central Gulf also a factor. The relatively greatest destabilization is expected today across the northern/central Florida Peninsula and nearby Georgia, where guidance is in generally good agreement that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000-3000 J/kg range this afternoon. As instability increases during the day, thunderstorms are expected to develop with sea breeze influences, with isolated large hail and damaging winds possible. Elsewhere, influences from the aforementioned MCS over the Gulf should limited severe potential farther west along the middle Gulf Coast, although some measure of recovery and weak cyclogenesis could occur later tonight toward far southeast Louisiana to Florida Panhandle vicinity. ...Carolinas/southeast Virginia/southern Maryland... The closed upper low will shift generally eastward over the central/northern Appalachians and northern Mid-Atlantic region today, with a cyclonically curved belt of strong westerlies in its base and attendant mid-level cold pocket (-18C to -24C at 500 mb). Some showers/possibly a thunderstorm will exit the region and move into the Atlantic today, with modest air mass recovery/destabilization in its wake preceding a surface low/reinforcing front. While the magnitude of the severe risk is not entirely clear, the main opportunity for later-day strong/locally severe storm development would appear to be across far southeast Virginia and far northeast North Carolina. Strong wind profiles would support organized storms pending sufficient destabilization, with potential for severe hail and damaging winds, at least on an isolated basis, primarily from mid-afternoon through sunset or early evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/09/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that large-scale mid/upper troughing will continue digging inland of the Pacific coast, before gradually turning eastward toward the Rockies during the early portion of next week. While this probably will be accompanied by the development of modestly deep surface troughing across the Great Plains, appreciable low-level moisture return, in the wake of a mid-level low/trough slowly accelerating northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley, through parts of the Mid South and Ohio Valley, remains uncertain. Even into mid-week, when it appears that the troughing may begin to emerge from the Intermountain West/Rockies, while the downstream troughing only slowly progresses across the Mid Atlantic, moisture return (and destabilization) to the vicinity of the stronger forcing for ascent may remain a potential limiting factor to severe thunderstorm development. Toward next Thursday/Friday, there does appear consensus that stronger destabilization may begin to become better coupled with large-scale forcing for ascent across the upper Mississippi Valley/Midwest into Ohio Valley, as the mid-level troughing progresses northeastward and eastward, around the periphery of mid/upper ridging building north-northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley. This appears to include at least a conditional risk for organized severe convection, including a few supercells. Although lingering uncertainties preclude introducing 15 percent or greater severe probabilities at this time, this may change in later outlooks for this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that large-scale mid/upper troughing will continue digging inland of the Pacific coast, before gradually turning eastward toward the Rockies during the early portion of next week. While this probably will be accompanied by the development of modestly deep surface troughing across the Great Plains, appreciable low-level moisture return, in the wake of a mid-level low/trough slowly accelerating northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley, through parts of the Mid South and Ohio Valley, remains uncertain. Even into mid-week, when it appears that the troughing may begin to emerge from the Intermountain West/Rockies, while the downstream troughing only slowly progresses across the Mid Atlantic, moisture return (and destabilization) to the vicinity of the stronger forcing for ascent may remain a potential limiting factor to severe thunderstorm development. Toward next Thursday/Friday, there does appear consensus that stronger destabilization may begin to become better coupled with large-scale forcing for ascent across the upper Mississippi Valley/Midwest into Ohio Valley, as the mid-level troughing progresses northeastward and eastward, around the periphery of mid/upper ridging building north-northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley. This appears to include at least a conditional risk for organized severe convection, including a few supercells. Although lingering uncertainties preclude introducing 15 percent or greater severe probabilities at this time, this may change in later outlooks for this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that large-scale mid/upper troughing will continue digging inland of the Pacific coast, before gradually turning eastward toward the Rockies during the early portion of next week. While this probably will be accompanied by the development of modestly deep surface troughing across the Great Plains, appreciable low-level moisture return, in the wake of a mid-level low/trough slowly accelerating northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley, through parts of the Mid South and Ohio Valley, remains uncertain. Even into mid-week, when it appears that the troughing may begin to emerge from the Intermountain West/Rockies, while the downstream troughing only slowly progresses across the Mid Atlantic, moisture return (and destabilization) to the vicinity of the stronger forcing for ascent may remain a potential limiting factor to severe thunderstorm development. Toward next Thursday/Friday, there does appear consensus that stronger destabilization may begin to become better coupled with large-scale forcing for ascent across the upper Mississippi Valley/Midwest into Ohio Valley, as the mid-level troughing progresses northeastward and eastward, around the periphery of mid/upper ridging building north-northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley. This appears to include at least a conditional risk for organized severe convection, including a few supercells. Although lingering uncertainties preclude introducing 15 percent or greater severe probabilities at this time, this may change in later outlooks for this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that large-scale mid/upper troughing will continue digging inland of the Pacific coast, before gradually turning eastward toward the Rockies during the early portion of next week. While this probably will be accompanied by the development of modestly deep surface troughing across the Great Plains, appreciable low-level moisture return, in the wake of a mid-level low/trough slowly accelerating northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley, through parts of the Mid South and Ohio Valley, remains uncertain. Even into mid-week, when it appears that the troughing may begin to emerge from the Intermountain West/Rockies, while the downstream troughing only slowly progresses across the Mid Atlantic, moisture return (and destabilization) to the vicinity of the stronger forcing for ascent may remain a potential limiting factor to severe thunderstorm development. Toward next Thursday/Friday, there does appear consensus that stronger destabilization may begin to become better coupled with large-scale forcing for ascent across the upper Mississippi Valley/Midwest into Ohio Valley, as the mid-level troughing progresses northeastward and eastward, around the periphery of mid/upper ridging building north-northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley. This appears to include at least a conditional risk for organized severe convection, including a few supercells. Although lingering uncertainties preclude introducing 15 percent or greater severe probabilities at this time, this may change in later outlooks for this period. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN FL...SWRN GA...SRN/WRN AL...SRN AND CNTRL MS...SERN LA...ERN MT...NWRN SD...WRN ND... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf coast region on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong to severe surface gusts across parts of eastern Montana into the western Dakotas late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... Little change to the general large-scale pattern is expected from Saturday into Sunday, with much of North America remaining under the influence of amplified, split westerlies - stronger across the northern mid-latitudes than across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, significant mid-level troughing, with at least a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations, is forecast to begin digging inland of the northern U.S. Pacific coast. It appears that the leading edge of broad downstream ridging across the interior of North America will overspread the St. Lawrence Valley and Northeast. In lower latitudes, the center of a broad mid-level low may begin a very slow acceleration back to the northeast, across the lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. In lower levels, an initial weak low may weaken further across the Canadian Prairies into northern Ontario, as surface troughing deepens upstream, to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. The center of cool surface ridging, initially across the lower Great Lakes vicinity, is likely to redevelop southeastward off the northern Mid Atlantic coast. Near the southwestern periphery of this surface ridging, a broad area of lower surface pressure may shift inland off the Gulf into the lower Mississippi Valley, accompanied by boundary-layer moistening inland of eastern Gulf coastal areas. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/eastern Gulf Coast... Beneath the mid-level cold core of the low, and the downstream modest, difluent southwesterly mid/upper flow, models suggest that thermodynamic profiles by Sunday afternoon may become conducive to widely scattered strong thunderstorms with potential to produce some severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. This is expected to generally become focused within the weak surface troughing across parts of the western Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama into southeastern Louisiana and southern/central Mississippi, and perhaps along a convective outflow boundary advancing into Florida coastal areas north of Tampa. ...Northern Rockies/Great Plains... Downstream of the of large-scale mid/upper troughing digging into the Northwest, it appears that forcing for ascent could support scattered high-based thunderstorm activity, particularly within an evolving deeply mixed boundary layer characterize by large surface temperature/dew point spreads, but with weak CAPE, to the lee of the northern Rockies. The NAM, perhaps more so than other guidance, suggests that consolidating outflow, associated with a clustering of storms across parts of southeastern Montana into the western Dakotas, aided by evaporative cooling/some melting and downward transport of momentum, may become sufficient for a few strong to severe surface gusts by Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN FL...SWRN GA...SRN/WRN AL...SRN AND CNTRL MS...SERN LA...ERN MT...NWRN SD...WRN ND... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf coast region on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong to severe surface gusts across parts of eastern Montana into the western Dakotas late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... Little change to the general large-scale pattern is expected from Saturday into Sunday, with much of North America remaining under the influence of amplified, split westerlies - stronger across the northern mid-latitudes than across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, significant mid-level troughing, with at least a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations, is forecast to begin digging inland of the northern U.S. Pacific coast. It appears that the leading edge of broad downstream ridging across the interior of North America will overspread the St. Lawrence Valley and Northeast. In lower latitudes, the center of a broad mid-level low may begin a very slow acceleration back to the northeast, across the lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. In lower levels, an initial weak low may weaken further across the Canadian Prairies into northern Ontario, as surface troughing deepens upstream, to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. The center of cool surface ridging, initially across the lower Great Lakes vicinity, is likely to redevelop southeastward off the northern Mid Atlantic coast. Near the southwestern periphery of this surface ridging, a broad area of lower surface pressure may shift inland off the Gulf into the lower Mississippi Valley, accompanied by boundary-layer moistening inland of eastern Gulf coastal areas. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/eastern Gulf Coast... Beneath the mid-level cold core of the low, and the downstream modest, difluent southwesterly mid/upper flow, models suggest that thermodynamic profiles by Sunday afternoon may become conducive to widely scattered strong thunderstorms with potential to produce some severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. This is expected to generally become focused within the weak surface troughing across parts of the western Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama into southeastern Louisiana and southern/central Mississippi, and perhaps along a convective outflow boundary advancing into Florida coastal areas north of Tampa. ...Northern Rockies/Great Plains... Downstream of the of large-scale mid/upper troughing digging into the Northwest, it appears that forcing for ascent could support scattered high-based thunderstorm activity, particularly within an evolving deeply mixed boundary layer characterize by large surface temperature/dew point spreads, but with weak CAPE, to the lee of the northern Rockies. The NAM, perhaps more so than other guidance, suggests that consolidating outflow, associated with a clustering of storms across parts of southeastern Montana into the western Dakotas, aided by evaporative cooling/some melting and downward transport of momentum, may become sufficient for a few strong to severe surface gusts by Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN FL...SWRN GA...SRN/WRN AL...SRN AND CNTRL MS...SERN LA...ERN MT...NWRN SD...WRN ND... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf coast region on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong to severe surface gusts across parts of eastern Montana into the western Dakotas late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... Little change to the general large-scale pattern is expected from Saturday into Sunday, with much of North America remaining under the influence of amplified, split westerlies - stronger across the northern mid-latitudes than across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, significant mid-level troughing, with at least a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations, is forecast to begin digging inland of the northern U.S. Pacific coast. It appears that the leading edge of broad downstream ridging across the interior of North America will overspread the St. Lawrence Valley and Northeast. In lower latitudes, the center of a broad mid-level low may begin a very slow acceleration back to the northeast, across the lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. In lower levels, an initial weak low may weaken further across the Canadian Prairies into northern Ontario, as surface troughing deepens upstream, to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. The center of cool surface ridging, initially across the lower Great Lakes vicinity, is likely to redevelop southeastward off the northern Mid Atlantic coast. Near the southwestern periphery of this surface ridging, a broad area of lower surface pressure may shift inland off the Gulf into the lower Mississippi Valley, accompanied by boundary-layer moistening inland of eastern Gulf coastal areas. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/eastern Gulf Coast... Beneath the mid-level cold core of the low, and the downstream modest, difluent southwesterly mid/upper flow, models suggest that thermodynamic profiles by Sunday afternoon may become conducive to widely scattered strong thunderstorms with potential to produce some severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. This is expected to generally become focused within the weak surface troughing across parts of the western Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama into southeastern Louisiana and southern/central Mississippi, and perhaps along a convective outflow boundary advancing into Florida coastal areas north of Tampa. ...Northern Rockies/Great Plains... Downstream of the of large-scale mid/upper troughing digging into the Northwest, it appears that forcing for ascent could support scattered high-based thunderstorm activity, particularly within an evolving deeply mixed boundary layer characterize by large surface temperature/dew point spreads, but with weak CAPE, to the lee of the northern Rockies. The NAM, perhaps more so than other guidance, suggests that consolidating outflow, associated with a clustering of storms across parts of southeastern Montana into the western Dakotas, aided by evaporative cooling/some melting and downward transport of momentum, may become sufficient for a few strong to severe surface gusts by Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN FL...SWRN GA...SRN/WRN AL...SRN AND CNTRL MS...SERN LA...ERN MT...NWRN SD...WRN ND... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf coast region on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong to severe surface gusts across parts of eastern Montana into the western Dakotas late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... Little change to the general large-scale pattern is expected from Saturday into Sunday, with much of North America remaining under the influence of amplified, split westerlies - stronger across the northern mid-latitudes than across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, significant mid-level troughing, with at least a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations, is forecast to begin digging inland of the northern U.S. Pacific coast. It appears that the leading edge of broad downstream ridging across the interior of North America will overspread the St. Lawrence Valley and Northeast. In lower latitudes, the center of a broad mid-level low may begin a very slow acceleration back to the northeast, across the lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. In lower levels, an initial weak low may weaken further across the Canadian Prairies into northern Ontario, as surface troughing deepens upstream, to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. The center of cool surface ridging, initially across the lower Great Lakes vicinity, is likely to redevelop southeastward off the northern Mid Atlantic coast. Near the southwestern periphery of this surface ridging, a broad area of lower surface pressure may shift inland off the Gulf into the lower Mississippi Valley, accompanied by boundary-layer moistening inland of eastern Gulf coastal areas. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/eastern Gulf Coast... Beneath the mid-level cold core of the low, and the downstream modest, difluent southwesterly mid/upper flow, models suggest that thermodynamic profiles by Sunday afternoon may become conducive to widely scattered strong thunderstorms with potential to produce some severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. This is expected to generally become focused within the weak surface troughing across parts of the western Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama into southeastern Louisiana and southern/central Mississippi, and perhaps along a convective outflow boundary advancing into Florida coastal areas north of Tampa. ...Northern Rockies/Great Plains... Downstream of the of large-scale mid/upper troughing digging into the Northwest, it appears that forcing for ascent could support scattered high-based thunderstorm activity, particularly within an evolving deeply mixed boundary layer characterize by large surface temperature/dew point spreads, but with weak CAPE, to the lee of the northern Rockies. The NAM, perhaps more so than other guidance, suggests that consolidating outflow, associated with a clustering of storms across parts of southeastern Montana into the western Dakotas, aided by evaporative cooling/some melting and downward transport of momentum, may become sufficient for a few strong to severe surface gusts by Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will shift into the Plains on Saturday, as a compact shortwave trough exits the Northeast. Beneath the building ridge, an upper low will meander about the Southeastern US as the mid-level flow pattern remains blocked. Troughing will slowly deepen over the eastern Pacific amplifying the upper-level pattern. ...Northern Plains... Despite the relatively stagnant upper air pattern strong flow aloft will begin to move over the Ridge across the Rockies and into the northern US. This will support slow deepening of a lee trough Saturday afternoon. Low-level winds will veer to southerly and strengthen through the weekend as dry surface conditions develop. While widespread critical RH and winds are not expected, a few hours of southerly gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 35% are possible. This appears most likely over parts of the Dakotas and western MN. As fuels continue to dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions may develop. However, the lack of stronger winds and overlap with the driest fuels should prevent more widespread concerns for Saturday. ..Lyons.. 05/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will shift into the Plains on Saturday, as a compact shortwave trough exits the Northeast. Beneath the building ridge, an upper low will meander about the Southeastern US as the mid-level flow pattern remains blocked. Troughing will slowly deepen over the eastern Pacific amplifying the upper-level pattern. ...Northern Plains... Despite the relatively stagnant upper air pattern strong flow aloft will begin to move over the Ridge across the Rockies and into the northern US. This will support slow deepening of a lee trough Saturday afternoon. Low-level winds will veer to southerly and strengthen through the weekend as dry surface conditions develop. While widespread critical RH and winds are not expected, a few hours of southerly gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 35% are possible. This appears most likely over parts of the Dakotas and western MN. As fuels continue to dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions may develop. However, the lack of stronger winds and overlap with the driest fuels should prevent more widespread concerns for Saturday. ..Lyons.. 05/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will shift into the Plains on Saturday, as a compact shortwave trough exits the Northeast. Beneath the building ridge, an upper low will meander about the Southeastern US as the mid-level flow pattern remains blocked. Troughing will slowly deepen over the eastern Pacific amplifying the upper-level pattern. ...Northern Plains... Despite the relatively stagnant upper air pattern strong flow aloft will begin to move over the Ridge across the Rockies and into the northern US. This will support slow deepening of a lee trough Saturday afternoon. Low-level winds will veer to southerly and strengthen through the weekend as dry surface conditions develop. While widespread critical RH and winds are not expected, a few hours of southerly gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 35% are possible. This appears most likely over parts of the Dakotas and western MN. As fuels continue to dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions may develop. However, the lack of stronger winds and overlap with the driest fuels should prevent more widespread concerns for Saturday. ..Lyons.. 05/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will shift into the Plains on Saturday, as a compact shortwave trough exits the Northeast. Beneath the building ridge, an upper low will meander about the Southeastern US as the mid-level flow pattern remains blocked. Troughing will slowly deepen over the eastern Pacific amplifying the upper-level pattern. ...Northern Plains... Despite the relatively stagnant upper air pattern strong flow aloft will begin to move over the Ridge across the Rockies and into the northern US. This will support slow deepening of a lee trough Saturday afternoon. Low-level winds will veer to southerly and strengthen through the weekend as dry surface conditions develop. While widespread critical RH and winds are not expected, a few hours of southerly gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 35% are possible. This appears most likely over parts of the Dakotas and western MN. As fuels continue to dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions may develop. However, the lack of stronger winds and overlap with the driest fuels should prevent more widespread concerns for Saturday. ..Lyons.. 05/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level flow will continue across the CONUS today as a broad upper low gradually moves eastward. Western US ridging will also amplify, forcing stronger flow aloft over the northern US. At the surface, a cold front will move south across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Relatively mild and wet conditions will prevent broader fire-weather concerns over much of the country, though a few drier thunderstorms are possible along the cold front. ...Northern Plains and Great Lakes... As the cold front progresses southward, isolated thunderstorms are likely to form along and ahead of it through the heat of the day. With relatively modest moisture (PWAT values around 0.8 inches) these storms are expected to be relatively high based. A mixed mode of wet/occasional dry storms is possible with some lightning risk over recent dry fuels. While coverage of the drier storms appears limited, increasingly dry and breezy conditions behind the cold front could allow for some lightning ignitions and localized fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 05/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level flow will continue across the CONUS today as a broad upper low gradually moves eastward. Western US ridging will also amplify, forcing stronger flow aloft over the northern US. At the surface, a cold front will move south across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Relatively mild and wet conditions will prevent broader fire-weather concerns over much of the country, though a few drier thunderstorms are possible along the cold front. ...Northern Plains and Great Lakes... As the cold front progresses southward, isolated thunderstorms are likely to form along and ahead of it through the heat of the day. With relatively modest moisture (PWAT values around 0.8 inches) these storms are expected to be relatively high based. A mixed mode of wet/occasional dry storms is possible with some lightning risk over recent dry fuels. While coverage of the drier storms appears limited, increasingly dry and breezy conditions behind the cold front could allow for some lightning ignitions and localized fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 05/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level flow will continue across the CONUS today as a broad upper low gradually moves eastward. Western US ridging will also amplify, forcing stronger flow aloft over the northern US. At the surface, a cold front will move south across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Relatively mild and wet conditions will prevent broader fire-weather concerns over much of the country, though a few drier thunderstorms are possible along the cold front. ...Northern Plains and Great Lakes... As the cold front progresses southward, isolated thunderstorms are likely to form along and ahead of it through the heat of the day. With relatively modest moisture (PWAT values around 0.8 inches) these storms are expected to be relatively high based. A mixed mode of wet/occasional dry storms is possible with some lightning risk over recent dry fuels. While coverage of the drier storms appears limited, increasingly dry and breezy conditions behind the cold front could allow for some lightning ignitions and localized fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 05/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level flow will continue across the CONUS today as a broad upper low gradually moves eastward. Western US ridging will also amplify, forcing stronger flow aloft over the northern US. At the surface, a cold front will move south across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Relatively mild and wet conditions will prevent broader fire-weather concerns over much of the country, though a few drier thunderstorms are possible along the cold front. ...Northern Plains and Great Lakes... As the cold front progresses southward, isolated thunderstorms are likely to form along and ahead of it through the heat of the day. With relatively modest moisture (PWAT values around 0.8 inches) these storms are expected to be relatively high based. A mixed mode of wet/occasional dry storms is possible with some lightning risk over recent dry fuels. While coverage of the drier storms appears limited, increasingly dry and breezy conditions behind the cold front could allow for some lightning ignitions and localized fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 05/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NORTHERN FL...SRN GA...AND WRN INTO CNTRL MT... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern and central Florida and adjacent southern Georgia on Saturday. Additional strong thunderstorms may impact parts of western into central Montana. Some of these storms may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Discussion... It appears that much of North America will remain under the influence of split, amplified westerlies through this period and beyond, with flow in the northern mid-latitudes remaining stronger than in the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, a significant mid-level trough is forecast to continue digging offshore of the British Columbia coast toward the Pacific Northwest, preceded inland by a less prominent, northeastward accelerating perturbation into/across and east-northeast of the Canadian Rockies. Models indicate that the lead perturbation may be accompanied by weak cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian and adjacent northern U.S. Rockies, as it begins to progress around the western periphery of large-scale mid-level ridging shifting across/east of the Canadian Prairies, northern U.S. Great Plains and Upper Midwest. As the ridging overspreads the interior northern tier of the U.S., it appears that a broad mid-level low, initially centered just inland of the north central Gulf coast, will move little or perhaps retrograde to the west and southwest Saturday through Saturday night. An associated broad, weak low-level baroclinic zone may remain quasi-stationary near/just offshore of the Carolina coast through northern Florida, to a weak surface low near/offshore of the southeastern Louisiana coast, but this remains a bit uncertain due to model spread. Higher moisture content air will generally be confined to a corridor focused above/to the cool side of the frontal zone, and within a warm sector plume extending east of the mid-level low southward toward the tropical latitudes. ...Southeast... In additional to the uncertain details concerning the north central Gulf frontal low and downstream frontal movement, spread evident in model output concerning the sub-synoptic developments adds uncertainty to the convective forecast. However, while the mid-level cold core remains well upstream, it does appear that much of northern/central Florida and adjacent portions of the Gulf States will remain under the influence of a broadly difluent, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow regime. Although higher moisture content and more widespread convective development may tend to remain focused well offshore, across the northeastern Gulf, the front zone and inland advancing sea-breezes might provide focus for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development during the day. Aided by modestly steep lower/mid-level lapse rates, the environment may become conducive for a few of these storms to pose a risk for severe hail and wind. Some model output suggests that low-level flow northeast of the surface low might contribute to hodographs conducive to some risk for a tornado, mainly across and west of the Florida Big Bend vicinity. ...Montana... There is a notable signal within model output concerning the potential for the initiation of thunderstorm activity across the higher terrain of western Montana, and the subsequent evolution of an upscale growing cluster into/across north central Montana Saturday afternoon and evening. Moisture/instability within thermodynamic profiles characterized by the evolution of a deep and well-mixed boundary is forecast to be weak. But shear/momentum associated with 40-50+ kt west-southwesterly mid/upper flow may become conducive to a few storms initially posing a risk for small to marginally severe hail, before strong to severe wind gusts become the primary potential hazard until storms weaken Saturday night. ..Kerr.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NORTHERN FL...SRN GA...AND WRN INTO CNTRL MT... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern and central Florida and adjacent southern Georgia on Saturday. Additional strong thunderstorms may impact parts of western into central Montana. Some of these storms may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Discussion... It appears that much of North America will remain under the influence of split, amplified westerlies through this period and beyond, with flow in the northern mid-latitudes remaining stronger than in the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, a significant mid-level trough is forecast to continue digging offshore of the British Columbia coast toward the Pacific Northwest, preceded inland by a less prominent, northeastward accelerating perturbation into/across and east-northeast of the Canadian Rockies. Models indicate that the lead perturbation may be accompanied by weak cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian and adjacent northern U.S. Rockies, as it begins to progress around the western periphery of large-scale mid-level ridging shifting across/east of the Canadian Prairies, northern U.S. Great Plains and Upper Midwest. As the ridging overspreads the interior northern tier of the U.S., it appears that a broad mid-level low, initially centered just inland of the north central Gulf coast, will move little or perhaps retrograde to the west and southwest Saturday through Saturday night. An associated broad, weak low-level baroclinic zone may remain quasi-stationary near/just offshore of the Carolina coast through northern Florida, to a weak surface low near/offshore of the southeastern Louisiana coast, but this remains a bit uncertain due to model spread. Higher moisture content air will generally be confined to a corridor focused above/to the cool side of the frontal zone, and within a warm sector plume extending east of the mid-level low southward toward the tropical latitudes. ...Southeast... In additional to the uncertain details concerning the north central Gulf frontal low and downstream frontal movement, spread evident in model output concerning the sub-synoptic developments adds uncertainty to the convective forecast. However, while the mid-level cold core remains well upstream, it does appear that much of northern/central Florida and adjacent portions of the Gulf States will remain under the influence of a broadly difluent, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow regime. Although higher moisture content and more widespread convective development may tend to remain focused well offshore, across the northeastern Gulf, the front zone and inland advancing sea-breezes might provide focus for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development during the day. Aided by modestly steep lower/mid-level lapse rates, the environment may become conducive for a few of these storms to pose a risk for severe hail and wind. Some model output suggests that low-level flow northeast of the surface low might contribute to hodographs conducive to some risk for a tornado, mainly across and west of the Florida Big Bend vicinity. ...Montana... There is a notable signal within model output concerning the potential for the initiation of thunderstorm activity across the higher terrain of western Montana, and the subsequent evolution of an upscale growing cluster into/across north central Montana Saturday afternoon and evening. Moisture/instability within thermodynamic profiles characterized by the evolution of a deep and well-mixed boundary is forecast to be weak. But shear/momentum associated with 40-50+ kt west-southwesterly mid/upper flow may become conducive to a few storms initially posing a risk for small to marginally severe hail, before strong to severe wind gusts become the primary potential hazard until storms weaken Saturday night. ..Kerr.. 05/09/2025 Read more