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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NORTHERN FL...SRN GA...AND WRN INTO CNTRL MT... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern and central Florida and adjacent southern Georgia on Saturday. Additional strong thunderstorms may impact parts of western into central Montana. Some of these storms may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Discussion... It appears that much of North America will remain under the influence of split, amplified westerlies through this period and beyond, with flow in the northern mid-latitudes remaining stronger than in the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, a significant mid-level trough is forecast to continue digging offshore of the British Columbia coast toward the Pacific Northwest, preceded inland by a less prominent, northeastward accelerating perturbation into/across and east-northeast of the Canadian Rockies. Models indicate that the lead perturbation may be accompanied by weak cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian and adjacent northern U.S. Rockies, as it begins to progress around the western periphery of large-scale mid-level ridging shifting across/east of the Canadian Prairies, northern U.S. Great Plains and Upper Midwest. As the ridging overspreads the interior northern tier of the U.S., it appears that a broad mid-level low, initially centered just inland of the north central Gulf coast, will move little or perhaps retrograde to the west and southwest Saturday through Saturday night. An associated broad, weak low-level baroclinic zone may remain quasi-stationary near/just offshore of the Carolina coast through northern Florida, to a weak surface low near/offshore of the southeastern Louisiana coast, but this remains a bit uncertain due to model spread. Higher moisture content air will generally be confined to a corridor focused above/to the cool side of the frontal zone, and within a warm sector plume extending east of the mid-level low southward toward the tropical latitudes. ...Southeast... In additional to the uncertain details concerning the north central Gulf frontal low and downstream frontal movement, spread evident in model output concerning the sub-synoptic developments adds uncertainty to the convective forecast. However, while the mid-level cold core remains well upstream, it does appear that much of northern/central Florida and adjacent portions of the Gulf States will remain under the influence of a broadly difluent, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow regime. Although higher moisture content and more widespread convective development may tend to remain focused well offshore, across the northeastern Gulf, the front zone and inland advancing sea-breezes might provide focus for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development during the day. Aided by modestly steep lower/mid-level lapse rates, the environment may become conducive for a few of these storms to pose a risk for severe hail and wind. Some model output suggests that low-level flow northeast of the surface low might contribute to hodographs conducive to some risk for a tornado, mainly across and west of the Florida Big Bend vicinity. ...Montana... There is a notable signal within model output concerning the potential for the initiation of thunderstorm activity across the higher terrain of western Montana, and the subsequent evolution of an upscale growing cluster into/across north central Montana Saturday afternoon and evening. Moisture/instability within thermodynamic profiles characterized by the evolution of a deep and well-mixed boundary is forecast to be weak. But shear/momentum associated with 40-50+ kt west-southwesterly mid/upper flow may become conducive to a few storms initially posing a risk for small to marginally severe hail, before strong to severe wind gusts become the primary potential hazard until storms weaken Saturday night. ..Kerr.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NORTHERN FL...SRN GA...AND WRN INTO CNTRL MT... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern and central Florida and adjacent southern Georgia on Saturday. Additional strong thunderstorms may impact parts of western into central Montana. Some of these storms may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Discussion... It appears that much of North America will remain under the influence of split, amplified westerlies through this period and beyond, with flow in the northern mid-latitudes remaining stronger than in the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, a significant mid-level trough is forecast to continue digging offshore of the British Columbia coast toward the Pacific Northwest, preceded inland by a less prominent, northeastward accelerating perturbation into/across and east-northeast of the Canadian Rockies. Models indicate that the lead perturbation may be accompanied by weak cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian and adjacent northern U.S. Rockies, as it begins to progress around the western periphery of large-scale mid-level ridging shifting across/east of the Canadian Prairies, northern U.S. Great Plains and Upper Midwest. As the ridging overspreads the interior northern tier of the U.S., it appears that a broad mid-level low, initially centered just inland of the north central Gulf coast, will move little or perhaps retrograde to the west and southwest Saturday through Saturday night. An associated broad, weak low-level baroclinic zone may remain quasi-stationary near/just offshore of the Carolina coast through northern Florida, to a weak surface low near/offshore of the southeastern Louisiana coast, but this remains a bit uncertain due to model spread. Higher moisture content air will generally be confined to a corridor focused above/to the cool side of the frontal zone, and within a warm sector plume extending east of the mid-level low southward toward the tropical latitudes. ...Southeast... In additional to the uncertain details concerning the north central Gulf frontal low and downstream frontal movement, spread evident in model output concerning the sub-synoptic developments adds uncertainty to the convective forecast. However, while the mid-level cold core remains well upstream, it does appear that much of northern/central Florida and adjacent portions of the Gulf States will remain under the influence of a broadly difluent, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow regime. Although higher moisture content and more widespread convective development may tend to remain focused well offshore, across the northeastern Gulf, the front zone and inland advancing sea-breezes might provide focus for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development during the day. Aided by modestly steep lower/mid-level lapse rates, the environment may become conducive for a few of these storms to pose a risk for severe hail and wind. Some model output suggests that low-level flow northeast of the surface low might contribute to hodographs conducive to some risk for a tornado, mainly across and west of the Florida Big Bend vicinity. ...Montana... There is a notable signal within model output concerning the potential for the initiation of thunderstorm activity across the higher terrain of western Montana, and the subsequent evolution of an upscale growing cluster into/across north central Montana Saturday afternoon and evening. Moisture/instability within thermodynamic profiles characterized by the evolution of a deep and well-mixed boundary is forecast to be weak. But shear/momentum associated with 40-50+ kt west-southwesterly mid/upper flow may become conducive to a few storms initially posing a risk for small to marginally severe hail, before strong to severe wind gusts become the primary potential hazard until storms weaken Saturday night. ..Kerr.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NORTHERN FL...SRN GA...AND WRN INTO CNTRL MT... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern and central Florida and adjacent southern Georgia on Saturday. Additional strong thunderstorms may impact parts of western into central Montana. Some of these storms may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Discussion... It appears that much of North America will remain under the influence of split, amplified westerlies through this period and beyond, with flow in the northern mid-latitudes remaining stronger than in the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, a significant mid-level trough is forecast to continue digging offshore of the British Columbia coast toward the Pacific Northwest, preceded inland by a less prominent, northeastward accelerating perturbation into/across and east-northeast of the Canadian Rockies. Models indicate that the lead perturbation may be accompanied by weak cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian and adjacent northern U.S. Rockies, as it begins to progress around the western periphery of large-scale mid-level ridging shifting across/east of the Canadian Prairies, northern U.S. Great Plains and Upper Midwest. As the ridging overspreads the interior northern tier of the U.S., it appears that a broad mid-level low, initially centered just inland of the north central Gulf coast, will move little or perhaps retrograde to the west and southwest Saturday through Saturday night. An associated broad, weak low-level baroclinic zone may remain quasi-stationary near/just offshore of the Carolina coast through northern Florida, to a weak surface low near/offshore of the southeastern Louisiana coast, but this remains a bit uncertain due to model spread. Higher moisture content air will generally be confined to a corridor focused above/to the cool side of the frontal zone, and within a warm sector plume extending east of the mid-level low southward toward the tropical latitudes. ...Southeast... In additional to the uncertain details concerning the north central Gulf frontal low and downstream frontal movement, spread evident in model output concerning the sub-synoptic developments adds uncertainty to the convective forecast. However, while the mid-level cold core remains well upstream, it does appear that much of northern/central Florida and adjacent portions of the Gulf States will remain under the influence of a broadly difluent, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow regime. Although higher moisture content and more widespread convective development may tend to remain focused well offshore, across the northeastern Gulf, the front zone and inland advancing sea-breezes might provide focus for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development during the day. Aided by modestly steep lower/mid-level lapse rates, the environment may become conducive for a few of these storms to pose a risk for severe hail and wind. Some model output suggests that low-level flow northeast of the surface low might contribute to hodographs conducive to some risk for a tornado, mainly across and west of the Florida Big Bend vicinity. ...Montana... There is a notable signal within model output concerning the potential for the initiation of thunderstorm activity across the higher terrain of western Montana, and the subsequent evolution of an upscale growing cluster into/across north central Montana Saturday afternoon and evening. Moisture/instability within thermodynamic profiles characterized by the evolution of a deep and well-mixed boundary is forecast to be weak. But shear/momentum associated with 40-50+ kt west-southwesterly mid/upper flow may become conducive to a few storms initially posing a risk for small to marginally severe hail, before strong to severe wind gusts become the primary potential hazard until storms weaken Saturday night. ..Kerr.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe gusts will be possible today across parts of eastern North Carolina. Thunderstorms with potential for severe gusts and hail may also form over eastern Florida. A marginal severe threat is also expected to develop outside of the Slight Risk areas from parts of the Southeast northeastward to southern Maryland. ...Southeast... At mid-levels today, flow will remain west-southwesterly across the southeastern U.S. At the surface, a very moist airmass will remain from Florida to the central Gulf Coast, where surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. The greatest instability is forecast across the eastern Florida Peninsula, where the models are in generally good agreement that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. As instability increases during the day, thunderstorms are expected to develop along a sea breeze boundary in eastern Florida. RAP forecast soundings near the boundary have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range with some directional shear at low-levels. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to peak in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This should be enough for a wind-damage threat with the stronger cells that form near the boundary. The potential for severe gusts is expected to be concentrated in the mid to late afternoon near max heating. A marginal and isolated severe threat will also be possible westward across parts of the central Gulf Coast states during the afternoon. ...Carolinas/Southeast Virginia/Southern Maryland... A positively-tilted mid-level trough will move through the Ohio Valley today, as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the Atlantic Seaboard. A surface low will move northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic, as a cold front moves across the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface heating takes place during the day, destabilization is expected near the Atlantic coast in the eastern Carolinas. MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the early afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 20Z in eastern North Carolina have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. In addition, mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep around 700 mb. This environment could support supercells with potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. The threat should end by early evening, as the more favorable environment moves offshore. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe gusts will be possible today across parts of eastern North Carolina. Thunderstorms with potential for severe gusts and hail may also form over eastern Florida. A marginal severe threat is also expected to develop outside of the Slight Risk areas from parts of the Southeast northeastward to southern Maryland. ...Southeast... At mid-levels today, flow will remain west-southwesterly across the southeastern U.S. At the surface, a very moist airmass will remain from Florida to the central Gulf Coast, where surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. The greatest instability is forecast across the eastern Florida Peninsula, where the models are in generally good agreement that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. As instability increases during the day, thunderstorms are expected to develop along a sea breeze boundary in eastern Florida. RAP forecast soundings near the boundary have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range with some directional shear at low-levels. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to peak in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This should be enough for a wind-damage threat with the stronger cells that form near the boundary. The potential for severe gusts is expected to be concentrated in the mid to late afternoon near max heating. A marginal and isolated severe threat will also be possible westward across parts of the central Gulf Coast states during the afternoon. ...Carolinas/Southeast Virginia/Southern Maryland... A positively-tilted mid-level trough will move through the Ohio Valley today, as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the Atlantic Seaboard. A surface low will move northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic, as a cold front moves across the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface heating takes place during the day, destabilization is expected near the Atlantic coast in the eastern Carolinas. MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the early afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 20Z in eastern North Carolina have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. In addition, mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep around 700 mb. This environment could support supercells with potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. The threat should end by early evening, as the more favorable environment moves offshore. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe gusts will be possible today across parts of eastern North Carolina. Thunderstorms with potential for severe gusts and hail may also form over eastern Florida. A marginal severe threat is also expected to develop outside of the Slight Risk areas from parts of the Southeast northeastward to southern Maryland. ...Southeast... At mid-levels today, flow will remain west-southwesterly across the southeastern U.S. At the surface, a very moist airmass will remain from Florida to the central Gulf Coast, where surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. The greatest instability is forecast across the eastern Florida Peninsula, where the models are in generally good agreement that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. As instability increases during the day, thunderstorms are expected to develop along a sea breeze boundary in eastern Florida. RAP forecast soundings near the boundary have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range with some directional shear at low-levels. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to peak in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This should be enough for a wind-damage threat with the stronger cells that form near the boundary. The potential for severe gusts is expected to be concentrated in the mid to late afternoon near max heating. A marginal and isolated severe threat will also be possible westward across parts of the central Gulf Coast states during the afternoon. ...Carolinas/Southeast Virginia/Southern Maryland... A positively-tilted mid-level trough will move through the Ohio Valley today, as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the Atlantic Seaboard. A surface low will move northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic, as a cold front moves across the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface heating takes place during the day, destabilization is expected near the Atlantic coast in the eastern Carolinas. MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the early afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 20Z in eastern North Carolina have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. In addition, mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep around 700 mb. This environment could support supercells with potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. The threat should end by early evening, as the more favorable environment moves offshore. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe gusts will be possible today across parts of eastern North Carolina. Thunderstorms with potential for severe gusts and hail may also form over eastern Florida. A marginal severe threat is also expected to develop outside of the Slight Risk areas from parts of the Southeast northeastward to southern Maryland. ...Southeast... At mid-levels today, flow will remain west-southwesterly across the southeastern U.S. At the surface, a very moist airmass will remain from Florida to the central Gulf Coast, where surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. The greatest instability is forecast across the eastern Florida Peninsula, where the models are in generally good agreement that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. As instability increases during the day, thunderstorms are expected to develop along a sea breeze boundary in eastern Florida. RAP forecast soundings near the boundary have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range with some directional shear at low-levels. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to peak in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This should be enough for a wind-damage threat with the stronger cells that form near the boundary. The potential for severe gusts is expected to be concentrated in the mid to late afternoon near max heating. A marginal and isolated severe threat will also be possible westward across parts of the central Gulf Coast states during the afternoon. ...Carolinas/Southeast Virginia/Southern Maryland... A positively-tilted mid-level trough will move through the Ohio Valley today, as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the Atlantic Seaboard. A surface low will move northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic, as a cold front moves across the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface heating takes place during the day, destabilization is expected near the Atlantic coast in the eastern Carolinas. MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the early afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 20Z in eastern North Carolina have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. In addition, mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep around 700 mb. This environment could support supercells with potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. The threat should end by early evening, as the more favorable environment moves offshore. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe gusts will be possible today across parts of eastern North Carolina. Thunderstorms with potential for severe gusts and hail may also form over eastern Florida. A marginal severe threat is also expected to develop outside of the Slight Risk areas from parts of the Southeast northeastward to southern Maryland. ...Southeast... At mid-levels today, flow will remain west-southwesterly across the southeastern U.S. At the surface, a very moist airmass will remain from Florida to the central Gulf Coast, where surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. The greatest instability is forecast across the eastern Florida Peninsula, where the models are in generally good agreement that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. As instability increases during the day, thunderstorms are expected to develop along a sea breeze boundary in eastern Florida. RAP forecast soundings near the boundary have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range with some directional shear at low-levels. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to peak in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This should be enough for a wind-damage threat with the stronger cells that form near the boundary. The potential for severe gusts is expected to be concentrated in the mid to late afternoon near max heating. A marginal and isolated severe threat will also be possible westward across parts of the central Gulf Coast states during the afternoon. ...Carolinas/Southeast Virginia/Southern Maryland... A positively-tilted mid-level trough will move through the Ohio Valley today, as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the Atlantic Seaboard. A surface low will move northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic, as a cold front moves across the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface heating takes place during the day, destabilization is expected near the Atlantic coast in the eastern Carolinas. MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the early afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 20Z in eastern North Carolina have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. In addition, mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep around 700 mb. This environment could support supercells with potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. The threat should end by early evening, as the more favorable environment moves offshore. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/09/2025 Read more

MD 0751 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL SC INTO EASTERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 0751 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0925 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Areas affected...Central SC into eastern NC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 090225Z - 090330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may increase in coverage late this evening across parts of SC/NC. A watch is not currently anticipated, but trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...A relatively slow-moving but mature MCS is tracking eastward across central NC. The outflow boundary associated with this convection has proceeded out ahead of the updrafts, suggesting a slow weakening will occur. Nevertheless, mesoscale organization may continue to result in gusty winds along the line for another 1-2 hours. The surface outflow boundary extends southwestward into northern SC. Southeasterly low-level winds to the south of the boundary will maintain a moist and unstable air mass in this region, where relatively steep mid-level lapse rates are present. Most CAM guidance suggests that thunderstorms will increase in coverage along the outflow boundary during the next couple of hours. Given the unstable conditions and favorable deep-layer shear profiles, there will remain some severe threat through the early morning period. However, it is unclear whether this threat will warrant a new severe thunderstorm watch, given continued diurnal cooling. Trends will be monitored. ..Hart/Smith.. 05/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 34498216 34808034 35277945 35937901 35807826 34987804 34047857 33567952 33448110 33558263 34268320 34498216 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0750 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 241...243... FOR PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0750 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Areas affected...parts of deep south Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241...243... Valid 090219Z - 090315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241, 243 continues. SUMMARY...The damaging wind and hail risk continues across WW 241 and 243. Two more organized bows may pose a locally greater risk for a significant gust or two of 70-80 mph. DISCUSSION...As of 0210 UTC, prior supercells and severe storm clusters over the Rio Grande Valley and southern TX have gradually grown upscale this evening. Two stronger bowing segments have materialized with recent near-severe gusts observed across Duval County. CRP/BRO radar cross sections show increasingly deep cold pools and hints of descending rear-inflow jets within these storms. This suggests further upscale growth into a QLCS is likely over the next couple of hours as convection approaches the coast. With moderate buoyancy from SPC mesoanalyis (2000 J/kg MLCAPE 00z BRO RAOB), and 50-55 kt of effective shear observed from the BRO/CRP VADs, storms will likely remain highly organized as they track toward the Gulf Coast. Damaging winds are the most prominent threat, thought some hail will remain possible given the degree of buoyancy and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. The two bowing segment may also pose a risk for an isolated significant gust upwards of 75 mph given increasingly strong cold pools and more organized linear structures. ..Lyons.. 05/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 28549839 28699773 28539662 28129679 27409733 26909735 26329742 26299821 26749918 27059938 27609898 28549839 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0242 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE TRI TO 30 WSW HKY TO 30 E CLT TO 15 W SOP TO 20 N SOP TO 25 E DAN TO 10 SW ROA. ..HART..05/09/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...RAH...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC011-015-047-055-057-083-085-105-111-115-117-119-123-129-137- 139-147-187-213-227-241-257-281-291-295-311-313-090340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANKS BARTOW CATOOSA CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE DADE DAWSON ELBERT FANNIN FLOYD FORSYTH FRANKLIN GILMER GORDON HABERSHAM HALL HART LUMPKIN MURRAY PICKENS RABUN STEPHENS TOWNS UNION WALKER WHITE WHITFIELD NCC007-021-037-045-051-071-075-085-087-089-093-099-101-105-111- 113-115-119-121-125-149-153-161-163-165-173-175-179-199- 090340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0242 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE TRI TO 30 WSW HKY TO 30 E CLT TO 15 W SOP TO 20 N SOP TO 25 E DAN TO 10 SW ROA. ..HART..05/09/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...RAH...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC011-015-047-055-057-083-085-105-111-115-117-119-123-129-137- 139-147-187-213-227-241-257-281-291-295-311-313-090340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANKS BARTOW CATOOSA CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE DADE DAWSON ELBERT FANNIN FLOYD FORSYTH FRANKLIN GILMER GORDON HABERSHAM HALL HART LUMPKIN MURRAY PICKENS RABUN STEPHENS TOWNS UNION WALKER WHITE WHITFIELD NCC007-021-037-045-051-071-075-085-087-089-093-099-101-105-111- 113-115-119-121-125-149-153-161-163-165-173-175-179-199- 090340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0242 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE TRI TO 30 WSW HKY TO 30 E CLT TO 15 W SOP TO 20 N SOP TO 25 E DAN TO 10 SW ROA. ..HART..05/09/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...RAH...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC011-015-047-055-057-083-085-105-111-115-117-119-123-129-137- 139-147-187-213-227-241-257-281-291-295-311-313-090340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANKS BARTOW CATOOSA CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE DADE DAWSON ELBERT FANNIN FLOYD FORSYTH FRANKLIN GILMER GORDON HABERSHAM HALL HART LUMPKIN MURRAY PICKENS RABUN STEPHENS TOWNS UNION WALKER WHITE WHITFIELD NCC007-021-037-045-051-071-075-085-087-089-093-099-101-105-111- 113-115-119-121-125-149-153-161-163-165-173-175-179-199- 090340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0242 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE TRI TO 30 WSW HKY TO 30 E CLT TO 15 W SOP TO 20 N SOP TO 25 E DAN TO 10 SW ROA. ..HART..05/09/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...RAH...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC011-015-047-055-057-083-085-105-111-115-117-119-123-129-137- 139-147-187-213-227-241-257-281-291-295-311-313-090340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANKS BARTOW CATOOSA CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE DADE DAWSON ELBERT FANNIN FLOYD FORSYTH FRANKLIN GILMER GORDON HABERSHAM HALL HART LUMPKIN MURRAY PICKENS RABUN STEPHENS TOWNS UNION WALKER WHITE WHITFIELD NCC007-021-037-045-051-071-075-085-087-089-093-099-101-105-111- 113-115-119-121-125-149-153-161-163-165-173-175-179-199- 090340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0242 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE TRI TO 30 WSW HKY TO 30 E CLT TO 15 W SOP TO 20 N SOP TO 25 E DAN TO 10 SW ROA. ..HART..05/09/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...RAH...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC011-015-047-055-057-083-085-105-111-115-117-119-123-129-137- 139-147-187-213-227-241-257-281-291-295-311-313-090340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANKS BARTOW CATOOSA CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE DADE DAWSON ELBERT FANNIN FLOYD FORSYTH FRANKLIN GILMER GORDON HABERSHAM HALL HART LUMPKIN MURRAY PICKENS RABUN STEPHENS TOWNS UNION WALKER WHITE WHITFIELD NCC007-021-037-045-051-071-075-085-087-089-093-099-101-105-111- 113-115-119-121-125-149-153-161-163-165-173-175-179-199- 090340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 242 SEVERE TSTM GA NC SC VA 082020Z - 090400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 242 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 420 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Georgia Western and Central North Carolina Western and Northern South Carolina Southwest Virginia * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 420 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue developing this afternoon and evening. The most intense cores will be capable of producing large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter. There should also be some potential for a cluster to develop later this evening and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, with peak gusts up to 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of Hot Springs NC to 40 miles south southeast of Danville VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 238...WW 239...WW 240...WW 241... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0240 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 240 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CHA TO 25 SSW TYS TO 15 NNE HSS TO 15 S TRI TO 30 SSE TRI. ..HART..05/09/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 240 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC039-043-090240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY TNC011-019-029-059-065-115-139-171-179-090240- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CARTER COCKE GREENE HAMILTON MARION POLK UNICOI WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0240 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 240 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CHA TO 25 SSW TYS TO 15 NNE HSS TO 15 S TRI TO 30 SSE TRI. ..HART..05/09/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 240 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC039-043-090240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY TNC011-019-029-059-065-115-139-171-179-090240- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CARTER COCKE GREENE HAMILTON MARION POLK UNICOI WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0240 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 240 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CHA TO 25 SSW TYS TO 15 NNE HSS TO 15 S TRI TO 30 SSE TRI. ..HART..05/09/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 240 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC039-043-090240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY TNC011-019-029-059-065-115-139-171-179-090240- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CARTER COCKE GREENE HAMILTON MARION POLK UNICOI WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0240 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 240 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CHA TO 25 SSW TYS TO 15 NNE HSS TO 15 S TRI TO 30 SSE TRI. ..HART..05/09/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 240 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC039-043-090240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY TNC011-019-029-059-065-115-139-171-179-090240- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CARTER COCKE GREENE HAMILTON MARION POLK UNICOI WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more