SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An evolving narrow corridor of isolated showers and thunderstorms along a cold front will progress through southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin through today. Expected PWAT values of 0.8 to 1.0 inch will support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm cores through the afternoon so Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were withheld. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) is evolving as expected. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level flow will continue across the CONUS today as a broad upper low gradually moves eastward. Western US ridging will also amplify, forcing stronger flow aloft over the northern US. At the surface, a cold front will move south across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Relatively mild and wet conditions will prevent broader fire-weather concerns over much of the country, though a few drier thunderstorms are possible along the cold front. ...Northern Plains and Great Lakes... As the cold front progresses southward, isolated thunderstorms are likely to form along and ahead of it through the heat of the day. With relatively modest moisture (PWAT values around 0.8 inches) these storms are expected to be relatively high based. A mixed mode of wet/occasional dry storms is possible with some lightning risk over recent dry fuels. While coverage of the drier storms appears limited, increasingly dry and breezy conditions behind the cold front could allow for some lightning ignitions and localized fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An evolving narrow corridor of isolated showers and thunderstorms along a cold front will progress through southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin through today. Expected PWAT values of 0.8 to 1.0 inch will support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm cores through the afternoon so Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were withheld. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) is evolving as expected. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level flow will continue across the CONUS today as a broad upper low gradually moves eastward. Western US ridging will also amplify, forcing stronger flow aloft over the northern US. At the surface, a cold front will move south across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Relatively mild and wet conditions will prevent broader fire-weather concerns over much of the country, though a few drier thunderstorms are possible along the cold front. ...Northern Plains and Great Lakes... As the cold front progresses southward, isolated thunderstorms are likely to form along and ahead of it through the heat of the day. With relatively modest moisture (PWAT values around 0.8 inches) these storms are expected to be relatively high based. A mixed mode of wet/occasional dry storms is possible with some lightning risk over recent dry fuels. While coverage of the drier storms appears limited, increasingly dry and breezy conditions behind the cold front could allow for some lightning ignitions and localized fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An evolving narrow corridor of isolated showers and thunderstorms along a cold front will progress through southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin through today. Expected PWAT values of 0.8 to 1.0 inch will support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm cores through the afternoon so Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were withheld. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) is evolving as expected. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level flow will continue across the CONUS today as a broad upper low gradually moves eastward. Western US ridging will also amplify, forcing stronger flow aloft over the northern US. At the surface, a cold front will move south across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Relatively mild and wet conditions will prevent broader fire-weather concerns over much of the country, though a few drier thunderstorms are possible along the cold front. ...Northern Plains and Great Lakes... As the cold front progresses southward, isolated thunderstorms are likely to form along and ahead of it through the heat of the day. With relatively modest moisture (PWAT values around 0.8 inches) these storms are expected to be relatively high based. A mixed mode of wet/occasional dry storms is possible with some lightning risk over recent dry fuels. While coverage of the drier storms appears limited, increasingly dry and breezy conditions behind the cold front could allow for some lightning ignitions and localized fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An evolving narrow corridor of isolated showers and thunderstorms along a cold front will progress through southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin through today. Expected PWAT values of 0.8 to 1.0 inch will support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm cores through the afternoon so Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were withheld. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) is evolving as expected. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level flow will continue across the CONUS today as a broad upper low gradually moves eastward. Western US ridging will also amplify, forcing stronger flow aloft over the northern US. At the surface, a cold front will move south across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Relatively mild and wet conditions will prevent broader fire-weather concerns over much of the country, though a few drier thunderstorms are possible along the cold front. ...Northern Plains and Great Lakes... As the cold front progresses southward, isolated thunderstorms are likely to form along and ahead of it through the heat of the day. With relatively modest moisture (PWAT values around 0.8 inches) these storms are expected to be relatively high based. A mixed mode of wet/occasional dry storms is possible with some lightning risk over recent dry fuels. While coverage of the drier storms appears limited, increasingly dry and breezy conditions behind the cold front could allow for some lightning ignitions and localized fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An evolving narrow corridor of isolated showers and thunderstorms along a cold front will progress through southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin through today. Expected PWAT values of 0.8 to 1.0 inch will support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm cores through the afternoon so Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were withheld. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) is evolving as expected. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level flow will continue across the CONUS today as a broad upper low gradually moves eastward. Western US ridging will also amplify, forcing stronger flow aloft over the northern US. At the surface, a cold front will move south across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Relatively mild and wet conditions will prevent broader fire-weather concerns over much of the country, though a few drier thunderstorms are possible along the cold front. ...Northern Plains and Great Lakes... As the cold front progresses southward, isolated thunderstorms are likely to form along and ahead of it through the heat of the day. With relatively modest moisture (PWAT values around 0.8 inches) these storms are expected to be relatively high based. A mixed mode of wet/occasional dry storms is possible with some lightning risk over recent dry fuels. While coverage of the drier storms appears limited, increasingly dry and breezy conditions behind the cold front could allow for some lightning ignitions and localized fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An evolving narrow corridor of isolated showers and thunderstorms along a cold front will progress through southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin through today. Expected PWAT values of 0.8 to 1.0 inch will support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm cores through the afternoon so Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were withheld. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) is evolving as expected. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level flow will continue across the CONUS today as a broad upper low gradually moves eastward. Western US ridging will also amplify, forcing stronger flow aloft over the northern US. At the surface, a cold front will move south across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Relatively mild and wet conditions will prevent broader fire-weather concerns over much of the country, though a few drier thunderstorms are possible along the cold front. ...Northern Plains and Great Lakes... As the cold front progresses southward, isolated thunderstorms are likely to form along and ahead of it through the heat of the day. With relatively modest moisture (PWAT values around 0.8 inches) these storms are expected to be relatively high based. A mixed mode of wet/occasional dry storms is possible with some lightning risk over recent dry fuels. While coverage of the drier storms appears limited, increasingly dry and breezy conditions behind the cold front could allow for some lightning ignitions and localized fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An evolving narrow corridor of isolated showers and thunderstorms along a cold front will progress through southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin through today. Expected PWAT values of 0.8 to 1.0 inch will support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm cores through the afternoon so Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were withheld. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) is evolving as expected. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level flow will continue across the CONUS today as a broad upper low gradually moves eastward. Western US ridging will also amplify, forcing stronger flow aloft over the northern US. At the surface, a cold front will move south across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Relatively mild and wet conditions will prevent broader fire-weather concerns over much of the country, though a few drier thunderstorms are possible along the cold front. ...Northern Plains and Great Lakes... As the cold front progresses southward, isolated thunderstorms are likely to form along and ahead of it through the heat of the day. With relatively modest moisture (PWAT values around 0.8 inches) these storms are expected to be relatively high based. A mixed mode of wet/occasional dry storms is possible with some lightning risk over recent dry fuels. While coverage of the drier storms appears limited, increasingly dry and breezy conditions behind the cold front could allow for some lightning ignitions and localized fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, especially from the eastern Florida Peninsula through southeast Georgia, and across northeastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones embedded within a large positively titled upper trough extending from the southern Plains through the Northeast. The northernmost/easternmost cyclone is centered over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity, and is forecast to move gradually eastward throughout the day, ending the period over southern New England. An associated surface low, which is currently centered over eastern NJ, is forecast to progress northeastward while becoming increasingly aligned with the mid-level cyclone. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across VA and then back westward across KY, southern IL, and central MO. As the low moves northeastward, this front is expected to gradually push southward/southeastward, moving through much of the Mid-Atlantic by this evening. The southernmost/westernmost embedded cyclone is currently centered over southern AR, and the expectation is for the cyclone to shift southeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Lower MS Valley. Primary surface low associated with this system is currently over the northwest Gulf. This low is forecast to progress slowly eastward along the central Gulf coast, remaining just off shore and likely reaching just off AL/MS border intersection by early tomorrow morning. ...Central Gulf Coast into FL... A modest, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum is forecast to move from the central FL Panhandle into southeast GA/northern FL today, well ahead of the mid-level cyclone and associated surface low described in the synopsis. Localized ascent attendant to this features coupled with modest large-scale forcing for ascent and airmass destabilization will result in early-afternoon thunderstorm development, particularly along any sea breeze boundary that develops. Vertical shear will be modest, resulting in a mostly multicellular mode. Even so, updrafts are still expected to be strong enough to produce damaging downbursts and isolated large hail. Later tonight, some additional organization/strengthening of a convective line near the surface low is possible. Some strengthening of the low-level flow could occur at the same time, resulting in a low-probability tornado risk along the coast from AL into the western and central FL Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, with the highest coverage from the VA Tidewater into east-central NC, where forcing along the cold front will be strongest. The strongest shear is anticipated across this region as well, but the overall magnitude should still be modest, with most guidance suggesting deep-layer shear around 35 kt. Buoyancy will be modest as well, with MLCAPE likely maximizing around 800 to 1000 J/kg. These environmental conditions support the potential for a few stronger, more organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, especially from the eastern Florida Peninsula through southeast Georgia, and across northeastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones embedded within a large positively titled upper trough extending from the southern Plains through the Northeast. The northernmost/easternmost cyclone is centered over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity, and is forecast to move gradually eastward throughout the day, ending the period over southern New England. An associated surface low, which is currently centered over eastern NJ, is forecast to progress northeastward while becoming increasingly aligned with the mid-level cyclone. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across VA and then back westward across KY, southern IL, and central MO. As the low moves northeastward, this front is expected to gradually push southward/southeastward, moving through much of the Mid-Atlantic by this evening. The southernmost/westernmost embedded cyclone is currently centered over southern AR, and the expectation is for the cyclone to shift southeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Lower MS Valley. Primary surface low associated with this system is currently over the northwest Gulf. This low is forecast to progress slowly eastward along the central Gulf coast, remaining just off shore and likely reaching just off AL/MS border intersection by early tomorrow morning. ...Central Gulf Coast into FL... A modest, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum is forecast to move from the central FL Panhandle into southeast GA/northern FL today, well ahead of the mid-level cyclone and associated surface low described in the synopsis. Localized ascent attendant to this features coupled with modest large-scale forcing for ascent and airmass destabilization will result in early-afternoon thunderstorm development, particularly along any sea breeze boundary that develops. Vertical shear will be modest, resulting in a mostly multicellular mode. Even so, updrafts are still expected to be strong enough to produce damaging downbursts and isolated large hail. Later tonight, some additional organization/strengthening of a convective line near the surface low is possible. Some strengthening of the low-level flow could occur at the same time, resulting in a low-probability tornado risk along the coast from AL into the western and central FL Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, with the highest coverage from the VA Tidewater into east-central NC, where forcing along the cold front will be strongest. The strongest shear is anticipated across this region as well, but the overall magnitude should still be modest, with most guidance suggesting deep-layer shear around 35 kt. Buoyancy will be modest as well, with MLCAPE likely maximizing around 800 to 1000 J/kg. These environmental conditions support the potential for a few stronger, more organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, especially from the eastern Florida Peninsula through southeast Georgia, and across northeastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones embedded within a large positively titled upper trough extending from the southern Plains through the Northeast. The northernmost/easternmost cyclone is centered over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity, and is forecast to move gradually eastward throughout the day, ending the period over southern New England. An associated surface low, which is currently centered over eastern NJ, is forecast to progress northeastward while becoming increasingly aligned with the mid-level cyclone. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across VA and then back westward across KY, southern IL, and central MO. As the low moves northeastward, this front is expected to gradually push southward/southeastward, moving through much of the Mid-Atlantic by this evening. The southernmost/westernmost embedded cyclone is currently centered over southern AR, and the expectation is for the cyclone to shift southeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Lower MS Valley. Primary surface low associated with this system is currently over the northwest Gulf. This low is forecast to progress slowly eastward along the central Gulf coast, remaining just off shore and likely reaching just off AL/MS border intersection by early tomorrow morning. ...Central Gulf Coast into FL... A modest, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum is forecast to move from the central FL Panhandle into southeast GA/northern FL today, well ahead of the mid-level cyclone and associated surface low described in the synopsis. Localized ascent attendant to this features coupled with modest large-scale forcing for ascent and airmass destabilization will result in early-afternoon thunderstorm development, particularly along any sea breeze boundary that develops. Vertical shear will be modest, resulting in a mostly multicellular mode. Even so, updrafts are still expected to be strong enough to produce damaging downbursts and isolated large hail. Later tonight, some additional organization/strengthening of a convective line near the surface low is possible. Some strengthening of the low-level flow could occur at the same time, resulting in a low-probability tornado risk along the coast from AL into the western and central FL Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, with the highest coverage from the VA Tidewater into east-central NC, where forcing along the cold front will be strongest. The strongest shear is anticipated across this region as well, but the overall magnitude should still be modest, with most guidance suggesting deep-layer shear around 35 kt. Buoyancy will be modest as well, with MLCAPE likely maximizing around 800 to 1000 J/kg. These environmental conditions support the potential for a few stronger, more organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, especially from the eastern Florida Peninsula through southeast Georgia, and across northeastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones embedded within a large positively titled upper trough extending from the southern Plains through the Northeast. The northernmost/easternmost cyclone is centered over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity, and is forecast to move gradually eastward throughout the day, ending the period over southern New England. An associated surface low, which is currently centered over eastern NJ, is forecast to progress northeastward while becoming increasingly aligned with the mid-level cyclone. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across VA and then back westward across KY, southern IL, and central MO. As the low moves northeastward, this front is expected to gradually push southward/southeastward, moving through much of the Mid-Atlantic by this evening. The southernmost/westernmost embedded cyclone is currently centered over southern AR, and the expectation is for the cyclone to shift southeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Lower MS Valley. Primary surface low associated with this system is currently over the northwest Gulf. This low is forecast to progress slowly eastward along the central Gulf coast, remaining just off shore and likely reaching just off AL/MS border intersection by early tomorrow morning. ...Central Gulf Coast into FL... A modest, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum is forecast to move from the central FL Panhandle into southeast GA/northern FL today, well ahead of the mid-level cyclone and associated surface low described in the synopsis. Localized ascent attendant to this features coupled with modest large-scale forcing for ascent and airmass destabilization will result in early-afternoon thunderstorm development, particularly along any sea breeze boundary that develops. Vertical shear will be modest, resulting in a mostly multicellular mode. Even so, updrafts are still expected to be strong enough to produce damaging downbursts and isolated large hail. Later tonight, some additional organization/strengthening of a convective line near the surface low is possible. Some strengthening of the low-level flow could occur at the same time, resulting in a low-probability tornado risk along the coast from AL into the western and central FL Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, with the highest coverage from the VA Tidewater into east-central NC, where forcing along the cold front will be strongest. The strongest shear is anticipated across this region as well, but the overall magnitude should still be modest, with most guidance suggesting deep-layer shear around 35 kt. Buoyancy will be modest as well, with MLCAPE likely maximizing around 800 to 1000 J/kg. These environmental conditions support the potential for a few stronger, more organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, especially from the eastern Florida Peninsula through southeast Georgia, and across northeastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones embedded within a large positively titled upper trough extending from the southern Plains through the Northeast. The northernmost/easternmost cyclone is centered over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity, and is forecast to move gradually eastward throughout the day, ending the period over southern New England. An associated surface low, which is currently centered over eastern NJ, is forecast to progress northeastward while becoming increasingly aligned with the mid-level cyclone. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across VA and then back westward across KY, southern IL, and central MO. As the low moves northeastward, this front is expected to gradually push southward/southeastward, moving through much of the Mid-Atlantic by this evening. The southernmost/westernmost embedded cyclone is currently centered over southern AR, and the expectation is for the cyclone to shift southeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Lower MS Valley. Primary surface low associated with this system is currently over the northwest Gulf. This low is forecast to progress slowly eastward along the central Gulf coast, remaining just off shore and likely reaching just off AL/MS border intersection by early tomorrow morning. ...Central Gulf Coast into FL... A modest, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum is forecast to move from the central FL Panhandle into southeast GA/northern FL today, well ahead of the mid-level cyclone and associated surface low described in the synopsis. Localized ascent attendant to this features coupled with modest large-scale forcing for ascent and airmass destabilization will result in early-afternoon thunderstorm development, particularly along any sea breeze boundary that develops. Vertical shear will be modest, resulting in a mostly multicellular mode. Even so, updrafts are still expected to be strong enough to produce damaging downbursts and isolated large hail. Later tonight, some additional organization/strengthening of a convective line near the surface low is possible. Some strengthening of the low-level flow could occur at the same time, resulting in a low-probability tornado risk along the coast from AL into the western and central FL Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, with the highest coverage from the VA Tidewater into east-central NC, where forcing along the cold front will be strongest. The strongest shear is anticipated across this region as well, but the overall magnitude should still be modest, with most guidance suggesting deep-layer shear around 35 kt. Buoyancy will be modest as well, with MLCAPE likely maximizing around 800 to 1000 J/kg. These environmental conditions support the potential for a few stronger, more organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, especially from the eastern Florida Peninsula through southeast Georgia, and across northeastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones embedded within a large positively titled upper trough extending from the southern Plains through the Northeast. The northernmost/easternmost cyclone is centered over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity, and is forecast to move gradually eastward throughout the day, ending the period over southern New England. An associated surface low, which is currently centered over eastern NJ, is forecast to progress northeastward while becoming increasingly aligned with the mid-level cyclone. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across VA and then back westward across KY, southern IL, and central MO. As the low moves northeastward, this front is expected to gradually push southward/southeastward, moving through much of the Mid-Atlantic by this evening. The southernmost/westernmost embedded cyclone is currently centered over southern AR, and the expectation is for the cyclone to shift southeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Lower MS Valley. Primary surface low associated with this system is currently over the northwest Gulf. This low is forecast to progress slowly eastward along the central Gulf coast, remaining just off shore and likely reaching just off AL/MS border intersection by early tomorrow morning. ...Central Gulf Coast into FL... A modest, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum is forecast to move from the central FL Panhandle into southeast GA/northern FL today, well ahead of the mid-level cyclone and associated surface low described in the synopsis. Localized ascent attendant to this features coupled with modest large-scale forcing for ascent and airmass destabilization will result in early-afternoon thunderstorm development, particularly along any sea breeze boundary that develops. Vertical shear will be modest, resulting in a mostly multicellular mode. Even so, updrafts are still expected to be strong enough to produce damaging downbursts and isolated large hail. Later tonight, some additional organization/strengthening of a convective line near the surface low is possible. Some strengthening of the low-level flow could occur at the same time, resulting in a low-probability tornado risk along the coast from AL into the western and central FL Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, with the highest coverage from the VA Tidewater into east-central NC, where forcing along the cold front will be strongest. The strongest shear is anticipated across this region as well, but the overall magnitude should still be modest, with most guidance suggesting deep-layer shear around 35 kt. Buoyancy will be modest as well, with MLCAPE likely maximizing around 800 to 1000 J/kg. These environmental conditions support the potential for a few stronger, more organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, especially from the eastern Florida Peninsula through southeast Georgia, and across northeastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones embedded within a large positively titled upper trough extending from the southern Plains through the Northeast. The northernmost/easternmost cyclone is centered over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity, and is forecast to move gradually eastward throughout the day, ending the period over southern New England. An associated surface low, which is currently centered over eastern NJ, is forecast to progress northeastward while becoming increasingly aligned with the mid-level cyclone. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across VA and then back westward across KY, southern IL, and central MO. As the low moves northeastward, this front is expected to gradually push southward/southeastward, moving through much of the Mid-Atlantic by this evening. The southernmost/westernmost embedded cyclone is currently centered over southern AR, and the expectation is for the cyclone to shift southeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Lower MS Valley. Primary surface low associated with this system is currently over the northwest Gulf. This low is forecast to progress slowly eastward along the central Gulf coast, remaining just off shore and likely reaching just off AL/MS border intersection by early tomorrow morning. ...Central Gulf Coast into FL... A modest, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum is forecast to move from the central FL Panhandle into southeast GA/northern FL today, well ahead of the mid-level cyclone and associated surface low described in the synopsis. Localized ascent attendant to this features coupled with modest large-scale forcing for ascent and airmass destabilization will result in early-afternoon thunderstorm development, particularly along any sea breeze boundary that develops. Vertical shear will be modest, resulting in a mostly multicellular mode. Even so, updrafts are still expected to be strong enough to produce damaging downbursts and isolated large hail. Later tonight, some additional organization/strengthening of a convective line near the surface low is possible. Some strengthening of the low-level flow could occur at the same time, resulting in a low-probability tornado risk along the coast from AL into the western and central FL Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, with the highest coverage from the VA Tidewater into east-central NC, where forcing along the cold front will be strongest. The strongest shear is anticipated across this region as well, but the overall magnitude should still be modest, with most guidance suggesting deep-layer shear around 35 kt. Buoyancy will be modest as well, with MLCAPE likely maximizing around 800 to 1000 J/kg. These environmental conditions support the potential for a few stronger, more organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, especially from the eastern Florida Peninsula through southeast Georgia, and across northeastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones embedded within a large positively titled upper trough extending from the southern Plains through the Northeast. The northernmost/easternmost cyclone is centered over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity, and is forecast to move gradually eastward throughout the day, ending the period over southern New England. An associated surface low, which is currently centered over eastern NJ, is forecast to progress northeastward while becoming increasingly aligned with the mid-level cyclone. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across VA and then back westward across KY, southern IL, and central MO. As the low moves northeastward, this front is expected to gradually push southward/southeastward, moving through much of the Mid-Atlantic by this evening. The southernmost/westernmost embedded cyclone is currently centered over southern AR, and the expectation is for the cyclone to shift southeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Lower MS Valley. Primary surface low associated with this system is currently over the northwest Gulf. This low is forecast to progress slowly eastward along the central Gulf coast, remaining just off shore and likely reaching just off AL/MS border intersection by early tomorrow morning. ...Central Gulf Coast into FL... A modest, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum is forecast to move from the central FL Panhandle into southeast GA/northern FL today, well ahead of the mid-level cyclone and associated surface low described in the synopsis. Localized ascent attendant to this features coupled with modest large-scale forcing for ascent and airmass destabilization will result in early-afternoon thunderstorm development, particularly along any sea breeze boundary that develops. Vertical shear will be modest, resulting in a mostly multicellular mode. Even so, updrafts are still expected to be strong enough to produce damaging downbursts and isolated large hail. Later tonight, some additional organization/strengthening of a convective line near the surface low is possible. Some strengthening of the low-level flow could occur at the same time, resulting in a low-probability tornado risk along the coast from AL into the western and central FL Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, with the highest coverage from the VA Tidewater into east-central NC, where forcing along the cold front will be strongest. The strongest shear is anticipated across this region as well, but the overall magnitude should still be modest, with most guidance suggesting deep-layer shear around 35 kt. Buoyancy will be modest as well, with MLCAPE likely maximizing around 800 to 1000 J/kg. These environmental conditions support the potential for a few stronger, more organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, especially from the eastern Florida Peninsula through southeast Georgia, and across northeastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones embedded within a large positively titled upper trough extending from the southern Plains through the Northeast. The northernmost/easternmost cyclone is centered over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity, and is forecast to move gradually eastward throughout the day, ending the period over southern New England. An associated surface low, which is currently centered over eastern NJ, is forecast to progress northeastward while becoming increasingly aligned with the mid-level cyclone. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across VA and then back westward across KY, southern IL, and central MO. As the low moves northeastward, this front is expected to gradually push southward/southeastward, moving through much of the Mid-Atlantic by this evening. The southernmost/westernmost embedded cyclone is currently centered over southern AR, and the expectation is for the cyclone to shift southeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Lower MS Valley. Primary surface low associated with this system is currently over the northwest Gulf. This low is forecast to progress slowly eastward along the central Gulf coast, remaining just off shore and likely reaching just off AL/MS border intersection by early tomorrow morning. ...Central Gulf Coast into FL... A modest, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum is forecast to move from the central FL Panhandle into southeast GA/northern FL today, well ahead of the mid-level cyclone and associated surface low described in the synopsis. Localized ascent attendant to this features coupled with modest large-scale forcing for ascent and airmass destabilization will result in early-afternoon thunderstorm development, particularly along any sea breeze boundary that develops. Vertical shear will be modest, resulting in a mostly multicellular mode. Even so, updrafts are still expected to be strong enough to produce damaging downbursts and isolated large hail. Later tonight, some additional organization/strengthening of a convective line near the surface low is possible. Some strengthening of the low-level flow could occur at the same time, resulting in a low-probability tornado risk along the coast from AL into the western and central FL Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, with the highest coverage from the VA Tidewater into east-central NC, where forcing along the cold front will be strongest. The strongest shear is anticipated across this region as well, but the overall magnitude should still be modest, with most guidance suggesting deep-layer shear around 35 kt. Buoyancy will be modest as well, with MLCAPE likely maximizing around 800 to 1000 J/kg. These environmental conditions support the potential for a few stronger, more organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, especially from the eastern Florida Peninsula through southeast Georgia, and across northeastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones embedded within a large positively titled upper trough extending from the southern Plains through the Northeast. The northernmost/easternmost cyclone is centered over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity, and is forecast to move gradually eastward throughout the day, ending the period over southern New England. An associated surface low, which is currently centered over eastern NJ, is forecast to progress northeastward while becoming increasingly aligned with the mid-level cyclone. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across VA and then back westward across KY, southern IL, and central MO. As the low moves northeastward, this front is expected to gradually push southward/southeastward, moving through much of the Mid-Atlantic by this evening. The southernmost/westernmost embedded cyclone is currently centered over southern AR, and the expectation is for the cyclone to shift southeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Lower MS Valley. Primary surface low associated with this system is currently over the northwest Gulf. This low is forecast to progress slowly eastward along the central Gulf coast, remaining just off shore and likely reaching just off AL/MS border intersection by early tomorrow morning. ...Central Gulf Coast into FL... A modest, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum is forecast to move from the central FL Panhandle into southeast GA/northern FL today, well ahead of the mid-level cyclone and associated surface low described in the synopsis. Localized ascent attendant to this features coupled with modest large-scale forcing for ascent and airmass destabilization will result in early-afternoon thunderstorm development, particularly along any sea breeze boundary that develops. Vertical shear will be modest, resulting in a mostly multicellular mode. Even so, updrafts are still expected to be strong enough to produce damaging downbursts and isolated large hail. Later tonight, some additional organization/strengthening of a convective line near the surface low is possible. Some strengthening of the low-level flow could occur at the same time, resulting in a low-probability tornado risk along the coast from AL into the western and central FL Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, with the highest coverage from the VA Tidewater into east-central NC, where forcing along the cold front will be strongest. The strongest shear is anticipated across this region as well, but the overall magnitude should still be modest, with most guidance suggesting deep-layer shear around 35 kt. Buoyancy will be modest as well, with MLCAPE likely maximizing around 800 to 1000 J/kg. These environmental conditions support the potential for a few stronger, more organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, especially from the eastern Florida Peninsula through southeast Georgia, and across northeastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones embedded within a large positively titled upper trough extending from the southern Plains through the Northeast. The northernmost/easternmost cyclone is centered over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity, and is forecast to move gradually eastward throughout the day, ending the period over southern New England. An associated surface low, which is currently centered over eastern NJ, is forecast to progress northeastward while becoming increasingly aligned with the mid-level cyclone. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across VA and then back westward across KY, southern IL, and central MO. As the low moves northeastward, this front is expected to gradually push southward/southeastward, moving through much of the Mid-Atlantic by this evening. The southernmost/westernmost embedded cyclone is currently centered over southern AR, and the expectation is for the cyclone to shift southeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Lower MS Valley. Primary surface low associated with this system is currently over the northwest Gulf. This low is forecast to progress slowly eastward along the central Gulf coast, remaining just off shore and likely reaching just off AL/MS border intersection by early tomorrow morning. ...Central Gulf Coast into FL... A modest, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum is forecast to move from the central FL Panhandle into southeast GA/northern FL today, well ahead of the mid-level cyclone and associated surface low described in the synopsis. Localized ascent attendant to this features coupled with modest large-scale forcing for ascent and airmass destabilization will result in early-afternoon thunderstorm development, particularly along any sea breeze boundary that develops. Vertical shear will be modest, resulting in a mostly multicellular mode. Even so, updrafts are still expected to be strong enough to produce damaging downbursts and isolated large hail. Later tonight, some additional organization/strengthening of a convective line near the surface low is possible. Some strengthening of the low-level flow could occur at the same time, resulting in a low-probability tornado risk along the coast from AL into the western and central FL Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, with the highest coverage from the VA Tidewater into east-central NC, where forcing along the cold front will be strongest. The strongest shear is anticipated across this region as well, but the overall magnitude should still be modest, with most guidance suggesting deep-layer shear around 35 kt. Buoyancy will be modest as well, with MLCAPE likely maximizing around 800 to 1000 J/kg. These environmental conditions support the potential for a few stronger, more organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA AND FAR SOUTHEAST VA/NORTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Southeast, but especially areas such as the northern Florida Peninsula and eastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...Florida/coastal Southeast... Weak height falls and strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will occur later today into tonight preceding the upper trough along the middle Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi River Valley, with an MCS over the west-central/north-central Gulf also a factor. The relatively greatest destabilization is expected today across the northern/central Florida Peninsula and nearby Georgia, where guidance is in generally good agreement that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000-3000 J/kg range this afternoon. As instability increases during the day, thunderstorms are expected to develop with sea breeze influences, with isolated large hail and damaging winds possible. Elsewhere, influences from the aforementioned MCS over the Gulf should limited severe potential farther west along the middle Gulf Coast, although some measure of recovery and weak cyclogenesis could occur later tonight toward far southeast Louisiana to Florida Panhandle vicinity. ...Carolinas/southeast Virginia/southern Maryland... The closed upper low will shift generally eastward over the central/northern Appalachians and northern Mid-Atlantic region today, with a cyclonically curved belt of strong westerlies in its base and attendant mid-level cold pocket (-18C to -24C at 500 mb). Some showers/possibly a thunderstorm will exit the region and move into the Atlantic today, with modest air mass recovery/destabilization in its wake preceding a surface low/reinforcing front. While the magnitude of the severe risk is not entirely clear, the main opportunity for later-day strong/locally severe storm development would appear to be across far southeast Virginia and far northeast North Carolina. Strong wind profiles would support organized storms pending sufficient destabilization, with potential for severe hail and damaging winds, at least on an isolated basis, primarily from mid-afternoon through sunset or early evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA AND FAR SOUTHEAST VA/NORTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Southeast, but especially areas such as the northern Florida Peninsula and eastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia. ...Florida/coastal Southeast... Weak height falls and strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will occur later today into tonight preceding the upper trough along the middle Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi River Valley, with an MCS over the west-central/north-central Gulf also a factor. The relatively greatest destabilization is expected today across the northern/central Florida Peninsula and nearby Georgia, where guidance is in generally good agreement that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000-3000 J/kg range this afternoon. As instability increases during the day, thunderstorms are expected to develop with sea breeze influences, with isolated large hail and damaging winds possible. Elsewhere, influences from the aforementioned MCS over the Gulf should limited severe potential farther west along the middle Gulf Coast, although some measure of recovery and weak cyclogenesis could occur later tonight toward far southeast Louisiana to Florida Panhandle vicinity. ...Carolinas/southeast Virginia/southern Maryland... The closed upper low will shift generally eastward over the central/northern Appalachians and northern Mid-Atlantic region today, with a cyclonically curved belt of strong westerlies in its base and attendant mid-level cold pocket (-18C to -24C at 500 mb). Some showers/possibly a thunderstorm will exit the region and move into the Atlantic today, with modest air mass recovery/destabilization in its wake preceding a surface low/reinforcing front. While the magnitude of the severe risk is not entirely clear, the main opportunity for later-day strong/locally severe storm development would appear to be across far southeast Virginia and far northeast North Carolina. Strong wind profiles would support organized storms pending sufficient destabilization, with potential for severe hail and damaging winds, at least on an isolated basis, primarily from mid-afternoon through sunset or early evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/09/2025 Read more