SPC May 9, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf coast region on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong gusts across parts of the northern Rockies and High Plains late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over LA, providing cool temperatures aloft from TX into the Gulf Coast region. Moderate southwest winds aloft will remain over the eastern Gulf and overspread much of AL, GA, and FL late. Low pressure and numerous storms will affect those same states for much of the day. To the west, an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will deepen further, with a 70 kt midlevel jet nosing into central MT. A surface trough will deepen over the northern High Plains, and extending west across MT and into ID, with steep lapse rates supporting scattered thunderstorms. ...Southern MS/AL/GA into FL... Numerous storms will likely be ongoing throughout the day over the northeast Gulf and spreading into AL, northern FL and GA. Scattered strong wind gusts may occur with these outflows. Farther west, daytime storms may also develop over MS and AL where heating occurs beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Sporadic hail or strong gusts may occur. ...Northern High Plains... As the upper trough overspreads the region, steepening lapse rates will result in a large area of potential thunderstorm threat. Strengthening southwest flow aloft will also conditionally support cellular activity with marginal hail or localized severe gusts. At this time, will maintain the existing Marginal Risk over eastern MT near the lee trough. Additional parts of MT or even ID and northwest WY may eventually need to be added to the Marginal Risk area in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf coast region on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong gusts across parts of the northern Rockies and High Plains late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over LA, providing cool temperatures aloft from TX into the Gulf Coast region. Moderate southwest winds aloft will remain over the eastern Gulf and overspread much of AL, GA, and FL late. Low pressure and numerous storms will affect those same states for much of the day. To the west, an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will deepen further, with a 70 kt midlevel jet nosing into central MT. A surface trough will deepen over the northern High Plains, and extending west across MT and into ID, with steep lapse rates supporting scattered thunderstorms. ...Southern MS/AL/GA into FL... Numerous storms will likely be ongoing throughout the day over the northeast Gulf and spreading into AL, northern FL and GA. Scattered strong wind gusts may occur with these outflows. Farther west, daytime storms may also develop over MS and AL where heating occurs beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Sporadic hail or strong gusts may occur. ...Northern High Plains... As the upper trough overspreads the region, steepening lapse rates will result in a large area of potential thunderstorm threat. Strengthening southwest flow aloft will also conditionally support cellular activity with marginal hail or localized severe gusts. At this time, will maintain the existing Marginal Risk over eastern MT near the lee trough. Additional parts of MT or even ID and northwest WY may eventually need to be added to the Marginal Risk area in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf coast region on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong gusts across parts of the northern Rockies and High Plains late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over LA, providing cool temperatures aloft from TX into the Gulf Coast region. Moderate southwest winds aloft will remain over the eastern Gulf and overspread much of AL, GA, and FL late. Low pressure and numerous storms will affect those same states for much of the day. To the west, an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will deepen further, with a 70 kt midlevel jet nosing into central MT. A surface trough will deepen over the northern High Plains, and extending west across MT and into ID, with steep lapse rates supporting scattered thunderstorms. ...Southern MS/AL/GA into FL... Numerous storms will likely be ongoing throughout the day over the northeast Gulf and spreading into AL, northern FL and GA. Scattered strong wind gusts may occur with these outflows. Farther west, daytime storms may also develop over MS and AL where heating occurs beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Sporadic hail or strong gusts may occur. ...Northern High Plains... As the upper trough overspreads the region, steepening lapse rates will result in a large area of potential thunderstorm threat. Strengthening southwest flow aloft will also conditionally support cellular activity with marginal hail or localized severe gusts. At this time, will maintain the existing Marginal Risk over eastern MT near the lee trough. Additional parts of MT or even ID and northwest WY may eventually need to be added to the Marginal Risk area in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC MD 752

3 months 2 weeks ago
MD 0752 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0752 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Areas affected...portions of the Florida Panhandle into extreme southeast Alabama and extreme southwest Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091741Z - 091915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A strong, damaging wind gust or an instance of marginally severe hail may occur with some of the stronger storms over the next few hours. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts intensifying thunderstorms along the FL Panhandle and immediate surrounding areas, with 40 dBZ echoes extending over 30 kft. These storms are strengthening atop a deepening boundary layer, with 8 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates contributing to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE. Regional VADs show modestly elongated, straight hodographs and around 30 kts of effective bulk shear, favoring multicellular storm modes. The strongest, longest-lived multicells may produce strong wind gusts and perhaps an instance of marginally severe hail. The sparse nature of the severe threat precludes a watch issuance. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 30688735 31288599 31308481 30948385 30468368 30158388 29818438 29638487 29578512 29738539 29958551 30168585 30298630 30348696 30688735 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...AND INTO CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern and central Florida and adjacent southern Georgia and Alabama on Saturday. Additional strong thunderstorms may impact parts of western into central Montana. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone will remain over the Sabine Valley, with cold air aloft extending from TX toward the northern Gulf Coast. At the surface, low pressure will move from the northern Gulf into LA/MS, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. A moist and unstable air mass will exist south of this boundary, supporting bouts of thunderstorms. To the west, strong southwest winds aloft will spread across the Pacific Northwest and into ID and western MT late. Heating within a surface trough over western MT combined with cooling aloft may support scattered high based storms. ...FL into far southern GA/AL... Numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf Of America and extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. Associated outflows may be strong given the amount of convection. Veering winds with height in the low levels may support rotation at times, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out along the stationary front. During the afternoon, strong heating will lead to storms from central FL into southern GA, and cool temperatures aloft may favor sporadic hail. ...West-central MT... Scattered fast-moving storms are forecast after about 21Z along the ID/MT border and spreading from western into north-central MT. While high based, steep lapse rates along with favorable mean winds/deep shear will support both strong to severe gusts and marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...AND INTO CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern and central Florida and adjacent southern Georgia and Alabama on Saturday. Additional strong thunderstorms may impact parts of western into central Montana. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone will remain over the Sabine Valley, with cold air aloft extending from TX toward the northern Gulf Coast. At the surface, low pressure will move from the northern Gulf into LA/MS, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. A moist and unstable air mass will exist south of this boundary, supporting bouts of thunderstorms. To the west, strong southwest winds aloft will spread across the Pacific Northwest and into ID and western MT late. Heating within a surface trough over western MT combined with cooling aloft may support scattered high based storms. ...FL into far southern GA/AL... Numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf Of America and extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. Associated outflows may be strong given the amount of convection. Veering winds with height in the low levels may support rotation at times, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out along the stationary front. During the afternoon, strong heating will lead to storms from central FL into southern GA, and cool temperatures aloft may favor sporadic hail. ...West-central MT... Scattered fast-moving storms are forecast after about 21Z along the ID/MT border and spreading from western into north-central MT. While high based, steep lapse rates along with favorable mean winds/deep shear will support both strong to severe gusts and marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...AND INTO CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern and central Florida and adjacent southern Georgia and Alabama on Saturday. Additional strong thunderstorms may impact parts of western into central Montana. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone will remain over the Sabine Valley, with cold air aloft extending from TX toward the northern Gulf Coast. At the surface, low pressure will move from the northern Gulf into LA/MS, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. A moist and unstable air mass will exist south of this boundary, supporting bouts of thunderstorms. To the west, strong southwest winds aloft will spread across the Pacific Northwest and into ID and western MT late. Heating within a surface trough over western MT combined with cooling aloft may support scattered high based storms. ...FL into far southern GA/AL... Numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf Of America and extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. Associated outflows may be strong given the amount of convection. Veering winds with height in the low levels may support rotation at times, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out along the stationary front. During the afternoon, strong heating will lead to storms from central FL into southern GA, and cool temperatures aloft may favor sporadic hail. ...West-central MT... Scattered fast-moving storms are forecast after about 21Z along the ID/MT border and spreading from western into north-central MT. While high based, steep lapse rates along with favorable mean winds/deep shear will support both strong to severe gusts and marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...AND INTO CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern and central Florida and adjacent southern Georgia and Alabama on Saturday. Additional strong thunderstorms may impact parts of western into central Montana. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone will remain over the Sabine Valley, with cold air aloft extending from TX toward the northern Gulf Coast. At the surface, low pressure will move from the northern Gulf into LA/MS, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. A moist and unstable air mass will exist south of this boundary, supporting bouts of thunderstorms. To the west, strong southwest winds aloft will spread across the Pacific Northwest and into ID and western MT late. Heating within a surface trough over western MT combined with cooling aloft may support scattered high based storms. ...FL into far southern GA/AL... Numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf Of America and extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. Associated outflows may be strong given the amount of convection. Veering winds with height in the low levels may support rotation at times, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out along the stationary front. During the afternoon, strong heating will lead to storms from central FL into southern GA, and cool temperatures aloft may favor sporadic hail. ...West-central MT... Scattered fast-moving storms are forecast after about 21Z along the ID/MT border and spreading from western into north-central MT. While high based, steep lapse rates along with favorable mean winds/deep shear will support both strong to severe gusts and marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...AND INTO CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern and central Florida and adjacent southern Georgia and Alabama on Saturday. Additional strong thunderstorms may impact parts of western into central Montana. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone will remain over the Sabine Valley, with cold air aloft extending from TX toward the northern Gulf Coast. At the surface, low pressure will move from the northern Gulf into LA/MS, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. A moist and unstable air mass will exist south of this boundary, supporting bouts of thunderstorms. To the west, strong southwest winds aloft will spread across the Pacific Northwest and into ID and western MT late. Heating within a surface trough over western MT combined with cooling aloft may support scattered high based storms. ...FL into far southern GA/AL... Numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf Of America and extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. Associated outflows may be strong given the amount of convection. Veering winds with height in the low levels may support rotation at times, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out along the stationary front. During the afternoon, strong heating will lead to storms from central FL into southern GA, and cool temperatures aloft may favor sporadic hail. ...West-central MT... Scattered fast-moving storms are forecast after about 21Z along the ID/MT border and spreading from western into north-central MT. While high based, steep lapse rates along with favorable mean winds/deep shear will support both strong to severe gusts and marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...AND INTO CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern and central Florida and adjacent southern Georgia and Alabama on Saturday. Additional strong thunderstorms may impact parts of western into central Montana. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone will remain over the Sabine Valley, with cold air aloft extending from TX toward the northern Gulf Coast. At the surface, low pressure will move from the northern Gulf into LA/MS, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. A moist and unstable air mass will exist south of this boundary, supporting bouts of thunderstorms. To the west, strong southwest winds aloft will spread across the Pacific Northwest and into ID and western MT late. Heating within a surface trough over western MT combined with cooling aloft may support scattered high based storms. ...FL into far southern GA/AL... Numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf Of America and extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. Associated outflows may be strong given the amount of convection. Veering winds with height in the low levels may support rotation at times, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out along the stationary front. During the afternoon, strong heating will lead to storms from central FL into southern GA, and cool temperatures aloft may favor sporadic hail. ...West-central MT... Scattered fast-moving storms are forecast after about 21Z along the ID/MT border and spreading from western into north-central MT. While high based, steep lapse rates along with favorable mean winds/deep shear will support both strong to severe gusts and marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...AND INTO CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern and central Florida and adjacent southern Georgia and Alabama on Saturday. Additional strong thunderstorms may impact parts of western into central Montana. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone will remain over the Sabine Valley, with cold air aloft extending from TX toward the northern Gulf Coast. At the surface, low pressure will move from the northern Gulf into LA/MS, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. A moist and unstable air mass will exist south of this boundary, supporting bouts of thunderstorms. To the west, strong southwest winds aloft will spread across the Pacific Northwest and into ID and western MT late. Heating within a surface trough over western MT combined with cooling aloft may support scattered high based storms. ...FL into far southern GA/AL... Numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf Of America and extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. Associated outflows may be strong given the amount of convection. Veering winds with height in the low levels may support rotation at times, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out along the stationary front. During the afternoon, strong heating will lead to storms from central FL into southern GA, and cool temperatures aloft may favor sporadic hail. ...West-central MT... Scattered fast-moving storms are forecast after about 21Z along the ID/MT border and spreading from western into north-central MT. While high based, steep lapse rates along with favorable mean winds/deep shear will support both strong to severe gusts and marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...AND INTO CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern and central Florida and adjacent southern Georgia and Alabama on Saturday. Additional strong thunderstorms may impact parts of western into central Montana. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone will remain over the Sabine Valley, with cold air aloft extending from TX toward the northern Gulf Coast. At the surface, low pressure will move from the northern Gulf into LA/MS, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. A moist and unstable air mass will exist south of this boundary, supporting bouts of thunderstorms. To the west, strong southwest winds aloft will spread across the Pacific Northwest and into ID and western MT late. Heating within a surface trough over western MT combined with cooling aloft may support scattered high based storms. ...FL into far southern GA/AL... Numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf Of America and extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. Associated outflows may be strong given the amount of convection. Veering winds with height in the low levels may support rotation at times, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out along the stationary front. During the afternoon, strong heating will lead to storms from central FL into southern GA, and cool temperatures aloft may favor sporadic hail. ...West-central MT... Scattered fast-moving storms are forecast after about 21Z along the ID/MT border and spreading from western into north-central MT. While high based, steep lapse rates along with favorable mean winds/deep shear will support both strong to severe gusts and marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...AND INTO CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern and central Florida and adjacent southern Georgia and Alabama on Saturday. Additional strong thunderstorms may impact parts of western into central Montana. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone will remain over the Sabine Valley, with cold air aloft extending from TX toward the northern Gulf Coast. At the surface, low pressure will move from the northern Gulf into LA/MS, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. A moist and unstable air mass will exist south of this boundary, supporting bouts of thunderstorms. To the west, strong southwest winds aloft will spread across the Pacific Northwest and into ID and western MT late. Heating within a surface trough over western MT combined with cooling aloft may support scattered high based storms. ...FL into far southern GA/AL... Numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf Of America and extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. Associated outflows may be strong given the amount of convection. Veering winds with height in the low levels may support rotation at times, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out along the stationary front. During the afternoon, strong heating will lead to storms from central FL into southern GA, and cool temperatures aloft may favor sporadic hail. ...West-central MT... Scattered fast-moving storms are forecast after about 21Z along the ID/MT border and spreading from western into north-central MT. While high based, steep lapse rates along with favorable mean winds/deep shear will support both strong to severe gusts and marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...AND INTO CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern and central Florida and adjacent southern Georgia and Alabama on Saturday. Additional strong thunderstorms may impact parts of western into central Montana. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone will remain over the Sabine Valley, with cold air aloft extending from TX toward the northern Gulf Coast. At the surface, low pressure will move from the northern Gulf into LA/MS, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. A moist and unstable air mass will exist south of this boundary, supporting bouts of thunderstorms. To the west, strong southwest winds aloft will spread across the Pacific Northwest and into ID and western MT late. Heating within a surface trough over western MT combined with cooling aloft may support scattered high based storms. ...FL into far southern GA/AL... Numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf Of America and extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. Associated outflows may be strong given the amount of convection. Veering winds with height in the low levels may support rotation at times, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out along the stationary front. During the afternoon, strong heating will lead to storms from central FL into southern GA, and cool temperatures aloft may favor sporadic hail. ...West-central MT... Scattered fast-moving storms are forecast after about 21Z along the ID/MT border and spreading from western into north-central MT. While high based, steep lapse rates along with favorable mean winds/deep shear will support both strong to severe gusts and marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...AND INTO CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern and central Florida and adjacent southern Georgia and Alabama on Saturday. Additional strong thunderstorms may impact parts of western into central Montana. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone will remain over the Sabine Valley, with cold air aloft extending from TX toward the northern Gulf Coast. At the surface, low pressure will move from the northern Gulf into LA/MS, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. A moist and unstable air mass will exist south of this boundary, supporting bouts of thunderstorms. To the west, strong southwest winds aloft will spread across the Pacific Northwest and into ID and western MT late. Heating within a surface trough over western MT combined with cooling aloft may support scattered high based storms. ...FL into far southern GA/AL... Numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf Of America and extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. Associated outflows may be strong given the amount of convection. Veering winds with height in the low levels may support rotation at times, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out along the stationary front. During the afternoon, strong heating will lead to storms from central FL into southern GA, and cool temperatures aloft may favor sporadic hail. ...West-central MT... Scattered fast-moving storms are forecast after about 21Z along the ID/MT border and spreading from western into north-central MT. While high based, steep lapse rates along with favorable mean winds/deep shear will support both strong to severe gusts and marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC May 9, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...AND INTO CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern and central Florida and adjacent southern Georgia and Alabama on Saturday. Additional strong thunderstorms may impact parts of western into central Montana. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone will remain over the Sabine Valley, with cold air aloft extending from TX toward the northern Gulf Coast. At the surface, low pressure will move from the northern Gulf into LA/MS, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. A moist and unstable air mass will exist south of this boundary, supporting bouts of thunderstorms. To the west, strong southwest winds aloft will spread across the Pacific Northwest and into ID and western MT late. Heating within a surface trough over western MT combined with cooling aloft may support scattered high based storms. ...FL into far southern GA/AL... Numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf Of America and extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. Associated outflows may be strong given the amount of convection. Veering winds with height in the low levels may support rotation at times, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out along the stationary front. During the afternoon, strong heating will lead to storms from central FL into southern GA, and cool temperatures aloft may favor sporadic hail. ...West-central MT... Scattered fast-moving storms are forecast after about 21Z along the ID/MT border and spreading from western into north-central MT. While high based, steep lapse rates along with favorable mean winds/deep shear will support both strong to severe gusts and marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An evolving narrow corridor of isolated showers and thunderstorms along a cold front will progress through southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin through today. Expected PWAT values of 0.8 to 1.0 inch will support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm cores through the afternoon so Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were withheld. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) is evolving as expected. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level flow will continue across the CONUS today as a broad upper low gradually moves eastward. Western US ridging will also amplify, forcing stronger flow aloft over the northern US. At the surface, a cold front will move south across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Relatively mild and wet conditions will prevent broader fire-weather concerns over much of the country, though a few drier thunderstorms are possible along the cold front. ...Northern Plains and Great Lakes... As the cold front progresses southward, isolated thunderstorms are likely to form along and ahead of it through the heat of the day. With relatively modest moisture (PWAT values around 0.8 inches) these storms are expected to be relatively high based. A mixed mode of wet/occasional dry storms is possible with some lightning risk over recent dry fuels. While coverage of the drier storms appears limited, increasingly dry and breezy conditions behind the cold front could allow for some lightning ignitions and localized fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An evolving narrow corridor of isolated showers and thunderstorms along a cold front will progress through southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin through today. Expected PWAT values of 0.8 to 1.0 inch will support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm cores through the afternoon so Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were withheld. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) is evolving as expected. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level flow will continue across the CONUS today as a broad upper low gradually moves eastward. Western US ridging will also amplify, forcing stronger flow aloft over the northern US. At the surface, a cold front will move south across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Relatively mild and wet conditions will prevent broader fire-weather concerns over much of the country, though a few drier thunderstorms are possible along the cold front. ...Northern Plains and Great Lakes... As the cold front progresses southward, isolated thunderstorms are likely to form along and ahead of it through the heat of the day. With relatively modest moisture (PWAT values around 0.8 inches) these storms are expected to be relatively high based. A mixed mode of wet/occasional dry storms is possible with some lightning risk over recent dry fuels. While coverage of the drier storms appears limited, increasingly dry and breezy conditions behind the cold front could allow for some lightning ignitions and localized fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An evolving narrow corridor of isolated showers and thunderstorms along a cold front will progress through southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin through today. Expected PWAT values of 0.8 to 1.0 inch will support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm cores through the afternoon so Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were withheld. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) is evolving as expected. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level flow will continue across the CONUS today as a broad upper low gradually moves eastward. Western US ridging will also amplify, forcing stronger flow aloft over the northern US. At the surface, a cold front will move south across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Relatively mild and wet conditions will prevent broader fire-weather concerns over much of the country, though a few drier thunderstorms are possible along the cold front. ...Northern Plains and Great Lakes... As the cold front progresses southward, isolated thunderstorms are likely to form along and ahead of it through the heat of the day. With relatively modest moisture (PWAT values around 0.8 inches) these storms are expected to be relatively high based. A mixed mode of wet/occasional dry storms is possible with some lightning risk over recent dry fuels. While coverage of the drier storms appears limited, increasingly dry and breezy conditions behind the cold front could allow for some lightning ignitions and localized fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An evolving narrow corridor of isolated showers and thunderstorms along a cold front will progress through southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin through today. Expected PWAT values of 0.8 to 1.0 inch will support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm cores through the afternoon so Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were withheld. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) is evolving as expected. ..Williams.. 05/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level flow will continue across the CONUS today as a broad upper low gradually moves eastward. Western US ridging will also amplify, forcing stronger flow aloft over the northern US. At the surface, a cold front will move south across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Relatively mild and wet conditions will prevent broader fire-weather concerns over much of the country, though a few drier thunderstorms are possible along the cold front. ...Northern Plains and Great Lakes... As the cold front progresses southward, isolated thunderstorms are likely to form along and ahead of it through the heat of the day. With relatively modest moisture (PWAT values around 0.8 inches) these storms are expected to be relatively high based. A mixed mode of wet/occasional dry storms is possible with some lightning risk over recent dry fuels. While coverage of the drier storms appears limited, increasingly dry and breezy conditions behind the cold front could allow for some lightning ignitions and localized fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more