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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Multiple areas of strong storms are ongoing early this morning over the northeast Gulf of America, originating within a moist/unstable warm sector that continues to nudge closer to the coastal Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. As a moist low-level level influx continues, a severe threat will exist today particularly for coastal areas, with the northern extent of the severe risk not entirely clear. However, some severe risk should exist as far north as the weak surface low and warm front effectively makes a northward progression. Where sufficient destabilization does occur, moderately strong/veering wind profiles will support storms capable of damaging winds and some tornado potential. This appears to mainly be across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Non-supercell processes might even be a factor for funnel/brief tornado potential farther west-northwest across Alabama toward the frontal wave/surface triple point, in closer proximity to the upper low. Otherwise, more of a damaging wind/some hail risk will exist southward across parts of the Florida Peninsula. For short-term info for northeast Florida/southeast Georgia, see Mesoscale Discussion 757. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating and orographic lift over western Montana will favor widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/10/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a generally amplified, split mid/upper flow will persist across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America next week. It appears that this will include at least a couple of significant troughs digging inland of the U.S. Pacific Coast. The first may already be in the process of developing eastward across the Intermountain West early in this period (Tuesday), before progressing across the Rockies, Great Plains and Mississippi Valley during the middle through latter portion of next week. This may be followed by another significant trough digging inland of the Pacific coast by early next weekend. The lead trough will be relatively close on the heels of the remnants of an initially broad quasi-stationary/cut-off low, which may only slowly progress east of the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard during the early to middle portion of next week. Low-level moisture return, in the wake of this perturbation and ahead of the mid-level trough emerging from the West, may continue to be impacted across at least parts of the Great Plains into mid week. Thereafter, there appears a general consensus that there will be a better coupling of large-scale forcing for ascent, aided by surface cyclogenesis, with a notable increase in low-level moisture and destabilization across the lower Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest and lower Ohio Valley by late next Thursday into Thursday night. In the presence of strong shear, it appears that this environment could become supportive of supercells and/or one or two organizing severe storm clusters. Machine learning output and other guidance suggests that potential for strong to severe thunderstorms could persist and potentially become more widespread across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic, and southern Great Plains, next Friday and Saturday. However, uncertainties remain too large at this time to introduce greater than 15 percent severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a generally amplified, split mid/upper flow will persist across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America next week. It appears that this will include at least a couple of significant troughs digging inland of the U.S. Pacific Coast. The first may already be in the process of developing eastward across the Intermountain West early in this period (Tuesday), before progressing across the Rockies, Great Plains and Mississippi Valley during the middle through latter portion of next week. This may be followed by another significant trough digging inland of the Pacific coast by early next weekend. The lead trough will be relatively close on the heels of the remnants of an initially broad quasi-stationary/cut-off low, which may only slowly progress east of the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard during the early to middle portion of next week. Low-level moisture return, in the wake of this perturbation and ahead of the mid-level trough emerging from the West, may continue to be impacted across at least parts of the Great Plains into mid week. Thereafter, there appears a general consensus that there will be a better coupling of large-scale forcing for ascent, aided by surface cyclogenesis, with a notable increase in low-level moisture and destabilization across the lower Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest and lower Ohio Valley by late next Thursday into Thursday night. In the presence of strong shear, it appears that this environment could become supportive of supercells and/or one or two organizing severe storm clusters. Machine learning output and other guidance suggests that potential for strong to severe thunderstorms could persist and potentially become more widespread across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic, and southern Great Plains, next Friday and Saturday. However, uncertainties remain too large at this time to introduce greater than 15 percent severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a generally amplified, split mid/upper flow will persist across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America next week. It appears that this will include at least a couple of significant troughs digging inland of the U.S. Pacific Coast. The first may already be in the process of developing eastward across the Intermountain West early in this period (Tuesday), before progressing across the Rockies, Great Plains and Mississippi Valley during the middle through latter portion of next week. This may be followed by another significant trough digging inland of the Pacific coast by early next weekend. The lead trough will be relatively close on the heels of the remnants of an initially broad quasi-stationary/cut-off low, which may only slowly progress east of the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard during the early to middle portion of next week. Low-level moisture return, in the wake of this perturbation and ahead of the mid-level trough emerging from the West, may continue to be impacted across at least parts of the Great Plains into mid week. Thereafter, there appears a general consensus that there will be a better coupling of large-scale forcing for ascent, aided by surface cyclogenesis, with a notable increase in low-level moisture and destabilization across the lower Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest and lower Ohio Valley by late next Thursday into Thursday night. In the presence of strong shear, it appears that this environment could become supportive of supercells and/or one or two organizing severe storm clusters. Machine learning output and other guidance suggests that potential for strong to severe thunderstorms could persist and potentially become more widespread across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic, and southern Great Plains, next Friday and Saturday. However, uncertainties remain too large at this time to introduce greater than 15 percent severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a generally amplified, split mid/upper flow will persist across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America next week. It appears that this will include at least a couple of significant troughs digging inland of the U.S. Pacific Coast. The first may already be in the process of developing eastward across the Intermountain West early in this period (Tuesday), before progressing across the Rockies, Great Plains and Mississippi Valley during the middle through latter portion of next week. This may be followed by another significant trough digging inland of the Pacific coast by early next weekend. The lead trough will be relatively close on the heels of the remnants of an initially broad quasi-stationary/cut-off low, which may only slowly progress east of the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard during the early to middle portion of next week. Low-level moisture return, in the wake of this perturbation and ahead of the mid-level trough emerging from the West, may continue to be impacted across at least parts of the Great Plains into mid week. Thereafter, there appears a general consensus that there will be a better coupling of large-scale forcing for ascent, aided by surface cyclogenesis, with a notable increase in low-level moisture and destabilization across the lower Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest and lower Ohio Valley by late next Thursday into Thursday night. In the presence of strong shear, it appears that this environment could become supportive of supercells and/or one or two organizing severe storm clusters. Machine learning output and other guidance suggests that potential for strong to severe thunderstorms could persist and potentially become more widespread across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic, and southern Great Plains, next Friday and Saturday. However, uncertainties remain too large at this time to introduce greater than 15 percent severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a generally amplified, split mid/upper flow will persist across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America next week. It appears that this will include at least a couple of significant troughs digging inland of the U.S. Pacific Coast. The first may already be in the process of developing eastward across the Intermountain West early in this period (Tuesday), before progressing across the Rockies, Great Plains and Mississippi Valley during the middle through latter portion of next week. This may be followed by another significant trough digging inland of the Pacific coast by early next weekend. The lead trough will be relatively close on the heels of the remnants of an initially broad quasi-stationary/cut-off low, which may only slowly progress east of the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard during the early to middle portion of next week. Low-level moisture return, in the wake of this perturbation and ahead of the mid-level trough emerging from the West, may continue to be impacted across at least parts of the Great Plains into mid week. Thereafter, there appears a general consensus that there will be a better coupling of large-scale forcing for ascent, aided by surface cyclogenesis, with a notable increase in low-level moisture and destabilization across the lower Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest and lower Ohio Valley by late next Thursday into Thursday night. In the presence of strong shear, it appears that this environment could become supportive of supercells and/or one or two organizing severe storm clusters. Machine learning output and other guidance suggests that potential for strong to severe thunderstorms could persist and potentially become more widespread across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic, and southern Great Plains, next Friday and Saturday. However, uncertainties remain too large at this time to introduce greater than 15 percent severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a generally amplified, split mid/upper flow will persist across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America next week. It appears that this will include at least a couple of significant troughs digging inland of the U.S. Pacific Coast. The first may already be in the process of developing eastward across the Intermountain West early in this period (Tuesday), before progressing across the Rockies, Great Plains and Mississippi Valley during the middle through latter portion of next week. This may be followed by another significant trough digging inland of the Pacific coast by early next weekend. The lead trough will be relatively close on the heels of the remnants of an initially broad quasi-stationary/cut-off low, which may only slowly progress east of the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard during the early to middle portion of next week. Low-level moisture return, in the wake of this perturbation and ahead of the mid-level trough emerging from the West, may continue to be impacted across at least parts of the Great Plains into mid week. Thereafter, there appears a general consensus that there will be a better coupling of large-scale forcing for ascent, aided by surface cyclogenesis, with a notable increase in low-level moisture and destabilization across the lower Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest and lower Ohio Valley by late next Thursday into Thursday night. In the presence of strong shear, it appears that this environment could become supportive of supercells and/or one or two organizing severe storm clusters. Machine learning output and other guidance suggests that potential for strong to severe thunderstorms could persist and potentially become more widespread across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic, and southern Great Plains, next Friday and Saturday. However, uncertainties remain too large at this time to introduce greater than 15 percent severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a generally amplified, split mid/upper flow will persist across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America next week. It appears that this will include at least a couple of significant troughs digging inland of the U.S. Pacific Coast. The first may already be in the process of developing eastward across the Intermountain West early in this period (Tuesday), before progressing across the Rockies, Great Plains and Mississippi Valley during the middle through latter portion of next week. This may be followed by another significant trough digging inland of the Pacific coast by early next weekend. The lead trough will be relatively close on the heels of the remnants of an initially broad quasi-stationary/cut-off low, which may only slowly progress east of the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard during the early to middle portion of next week. Low-level moisture return, in the wake of this perturbation and ahead of the mid-level trough emerging from the West, may continue to be impacted across at least parts of the Great Plains into mid week. Thereafter, there appears a general consensus that there will be a better coupling of large-scale forcing for ascent, aided by surface cyclogenesis, with a notable increase in low-level moisture and destabilization across the lower Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest and lower Ohio Valley by late next Thursday into Thursday night. In the presence of strong shear, it appears that this environment could become supportive of supercells and/or one or two organizing severe storm clusters. Machine learning output and other guidance suggests that potential for strong to severe thunderstorms could persist and potentially become more widespread across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic, and southern Great Plains, next Friday and Saturday. However, uncertainties remain too large at this time to introduce greater than 15 percent severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a generally amplified, split mid/upper flow will persist across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America next week. It appears that this will include at least a couple of significant troughs digging inland of the U.S. Pacific Coast. The first may already be in the process of developing eastward across the Intermountain West early in this period (Tuesday), before progressing across the Rockies, Great Plains and Mississippi Valley during the middle through latter portion of next week. This may be followed by another significant trough digging inland of the Pacific coast by early next weekend. The lead trough will be relatively close on the heels of the remnants of an initially broad quasi-stationary/cut-off low, which may only slowly progress east of the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard during the early to middle portion of next week. Low-level moisture return, in the wake of this perturbation and ahead of the mid-level trough emerging from the West, may continue to be impacted across at least parts of the Great Plains into mid week. Thereafter, there appears a general consensus that there will be a better coupling of large-scale forcing for ascent, aided by surface cyclogenesis, with a notable increase in low-level moisture and destabilization across the lower Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest and lower Ohio Valley by late next Thursday into Thursday night. In the presence of strong shear, it appears that this environment could become supportive of supercells and/or one or two organizing severe storm clusters. Machine learning output and other guidance suggests that potential for strong to severe thunderstorms could persist and potentially become more widespread across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic, and southern Great Plains, next Friday and Saturday. However, uncertainties remain too large at this time to introduce greater than 15 percent severe probabilities. Read more

MD 0755 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTH AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0755 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Areas affected...Far south AL into the FL Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 100755Z - 101030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some increase in isolated wind-damage and tornado potential is possible overnight. DISCUSSION...In the wake of a remnant MCS moving across the northeast Gulf vicinity, some low-level moistening is expected with time overnight near coastal AL and the FL Panhandle, to the east of a surface low that is forecast to track from east of New Orleans to near Mobile. As this occurs, a midlevel vorticity maximum rotating through a broad mid/upper-level trough/low will aid in renewed vigorous storm development near/east of the surface low, which is already ongoing south of Mobile. Veering wind profiles within the low-level warm advection regime will support organized convection. Uncertainty remains regarding the extent of inland destabilization, but there will be some potential for locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado for near-coastal areas, within the moistening and favorably sheared environment. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 30578824 30758780 30748719 30718651 30618594 30518567 30288574 30008587 29858605 29758630 29728646 29748669 29808710 29918790 30038828 30398830 30578824 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND WRN/CNTRL SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts. ...Discussion... Within the amplified, split westerlies, one significant mid/upper trough is forecast to continue digging inland of the U.S. Pacific coast during this period, downstream of a prominent ridge across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. It does appear that one or two smaller-scale perturbations emerging from this trough will accelerate northeastward across the northern U.S. Rockies into the Canadian Prairies, around the northwestern periphery of broad downstream ridging extending across the northern U.S. Great Plains through St. Lawrence Valley. In lower-levels, models indicate that deeper surface troughing will shift east of the Rockies into Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the Dakotas, while deepening southward through the southern high plains. However, destabilization near this feature is likely to be significantly inhibited by warm air aloft, and the lack of appreciable low-level moisture return due to the continuing presence of a broad mid/upper low initially centered across the lower Mississippi Valley. Cut off from the stronger westerlies, to the south of the broad mid-level ridging, movement of this low is likely to remain slow; however, models indicate that it will probably elongate north-northeastward across the Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, while taking on a negative tilt east of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast. In lower levels, this may be accompanied by broad, weak surface troughing developing across much of the Southeast, as surface ridging slowly shifts east of the Atlantic Seaboard. ...Southeast... Differences exist among the various model output, but the gradient between the low-level ridging and troughing may continue to support a belt of modest southerly low-level flow (20-30+ kt around 850 mb) along a corridor roughly from the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont. It appears probable that this will coincide with a deep lower/mid-tropospheric moist plume emanating from the lower latitudes, beneath a belt of moderate to strong, difluent southwesterly high-level flow, perhaps contributing to an environment at least conditionally supportive of supercells with potential to produce tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND WRN/CNTRL SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts. ...Discussion... Within the amplified, split westerlies, one significant mid/upper trough is forecast to continue digging inland of the U.S. Pacific coast during this period, downstream of a prominent ridge across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. It does appear that one or two smaller-scale perturbations emerging from this trough will accelerate northeastward across the northern U.S. Rockies into the Canadian Prairies, around the northwestern periphery of broad downstream ridging extending across the northern U.S. Great Plains through St. Lawrence Valley. In lower-levels, models indicate that deeper surface troughing will shift east of the Rockies into Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the Dakotas, while deepening southward through the southern high plains. However, destabilization near this feature is likely to be significantly inhibited by warm air aloft, and the lack of appreciable low-level moisture return due to the continuing presence of a broad mid/upper low initially centered across the lower Mississippi Valley. Cut off from the stronger westerlies, to the south of the broad mid-level ridging, movement of this low is likely to remain slow; however, models indicate that it will probably elongate north-northeastward across the Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, while taking on a negative tilt east of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast. In lower levels, this may be accompanied by broad, weak surface troughing developing across much of the Southeast, as surface ridging slowly shifts east of the Atlantic Seaboard. ...Southeast... Differences exist among the various model output, but the gradient between the low-level ridging and troughing may continue to support a belt of modest southerly low-level flow (20-30+ kt around 850 mb) along a corridor roughly from the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont. It appears probable that this will coincide with a deep lower/mid-tropospheric moist plume emanating from the lower latitudes, beneath a belt of moderate to strong, difluent southwesterly high-level flow, perhaps contributing to an environment at least conditionally supportive of supercells with potential to produce tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND WRN/CNTRL SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts. ...Discussion... Within the amplified, split westerlies, one significant mid/upper trough is forecast to continue digging inland of the U.S. Pacific coast during this period, downstream of a prominent ridge across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. It does appear that one or two smaller-scale perturbations emerging from this trough will accelerate northeastward across the northern U.S. Rockies into the Canadian Prairies, around the northwestern periphery of broad downstream ridging extending across the northern U.S. Great Plains through St. Lawrence Valley. In lower-levels, models indicate that deeper surface troughing will shift east of the Rockies into Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the Dakotas, while deepening southward through the southern high plains. However, destabilization near this feature is likely to be significantly inhibited by warm air aloft, and the lack of appreciable low-level moisture return due to the continuing presence of a broad mid/upper low initially centered across the lower Mississippi Valley. Cut off from the stronger westerlies, to the south of the broad mid-level ridging, movement of this low is likely to remain slow; however, models indicate that it will probably elongate north-northeastward across the Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, while taking on a negative tilt east of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast. In lower levels, this may be accompanied by broad, weak surface troughing developing across much of the Southeast, as surface ridging slowly shifts east of the Atlantic Seaboard. ...Southeast... Differences exist among the various model output, but the gradient between the low-level ridging and troughing may continue to support a belt of modest southerly low-level flow (20-30+ kt around 850 mb) along a corridor roughly from the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont. It appears probable that this will coincide with a deep lower/mid-tropospheric moist plume emanating from the lower latitudes, beneath a belt of moderate to strong, difluent southwesterly high-level flow, perhaps contributing to an environment at least conditionally supportive of supercells with potential to produce tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND WRN/CNTRL SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts. ...Discussion... Within the amplified, split westerlies, one significant mid/upper trough is forecast to continue digging inland of the U.S. Pacific coast during this period, downstream of a prominent ridge across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. It does appear that one or two smaller-scale perturbations emerging from this trough will accelerate northeastward across the northern U.S. Rockies into the Canadian Prairies, around the northwestern periphery of broad downstream ridging extending across the northern U.S. Great Plains through St. Lawrence Valley. In lower-levels, models indicate that deeper surface troughing will shift east of the Rockies into Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the Dakotas, while deepening southward through the southern high plains. However, destabilization near this feature is likely to be significantly inhibited by warm air aloft, and the lack of appreciable low-level moisture return due to the continuing presence of a broad mid/upper low initially centered across the lower Mississippi Valley. Cut off from the stronger westerlies, to the south of the broad mid-level ridging, movement of this low is likely to remain slow; however, models indicate that it will probably elongate north-northeastward across the Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, while taking on a negative tilt east of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast. In lower levels, this may be accompanied by broad, weak surface troughing developing across much of the Southeast, as surface ridging slowly shifts east of the Atlantic Seaboard. ...Southeast... Differences exist among the various model output, but the gradient between the low-level ridging and troughing may continue to support a belt of modest southerly low-level flow (20-30+ kt around 850 mb) along a corridor roughly from the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont. It appears probable that this will coincide with a deep lower/mid-tropospheric moist plume emanating from the lower latitudes, beneath a belt of moderate to strong, difluent southwesterly high-level flow, perhaps contributing to an environment at least conditionally supportive of supercells with potential to produce tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND WRN/CNTRL SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts. ...Discussion... Within the amplified, split westerlies, one significant mid/upper trough is forecast to continue digging inland of the U.S. Pacific coast during this period, downstream of a prominent ridge across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. It does appear that one or two smaller-scale perturbations emerging from this trough will accelerate northeastward across the northern U.S. Rockies into the Canadian Prairies, around the northwestern periphery of broad downstream ridging extending across the northern U.S. Great Plains through St. Lawrence Valley. In lower-levels, models indicate that deeper surface troughing will shift east of the Rockies into Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the Dakotas, while deepening southward through the southern high plains. However, destabilization near this feature is likely to be significantly inhibited by warm air aloft, and the lack of appreciable low-level moisture return due to the continuing presence of a broad mid/upper low initially centered across the lower Mississippi Valley. Cut off from the stronger westerlies, to the south of the broad mid-level ridging, movement of this low is likely to remain slow; however, models indicate that it will probably elongate north-northeastward across the Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, while taking on a negative tilt east of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast. In lower levels, this may be accompanied by broad, weak surface troughing developing across much of the Southeast, as surface ridging slowly shifts east of the Atlantic Seaboard. ...Southeast... Differences exist among the various model output, but the gradient between the low-level ridging and troughing may continue to support a belt of modest southerly low-level flow (20-30+ kt around 850 mb) along a corridor roughly from the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont. It appears probable that this will coincide with a deep lower/mid-tropospheric moist plume emanating from the lower latitudes, beneath a belt of moderate to strong, difluent southwesterly high-level flow, perhaps contributing to an environment at least conditionally supportive of supercells with potential to produce tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND WRN/CNTRL SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts. ...Discussion... Within the amplified, split westerlies, one significant mid/upper trough is forecast to continue digging inland of the U.S. Pacific coast during this period, downstream of a prominent ridge across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. It does appear that one or two smaller-scale perturbations emerging from this trough will accelerate northeastward across the northern U.S. Rockies into the Canadian Prairies, around the northwestern periphery of broad downstream ridging extending across the northern U.S. Great Plains through St. Lawrence Valley. In lower-levels, models indicate that deeper surface troughing will shift east of the Rockies into Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the Dakotas, while deepening southward through the southern high plains. However, destabilization near this feature is likely to be significantly inhibited by warm air aloft, and the lack of appreciable low-level moisture return due to the continuing presence of a broad mid/upper low initially centered across the lower Mississippi Valley. Cut off from the stronger westerlies, to the south of the broad mid-level ridging, movement of this low is likely to remain slow; however, models indicate that it will probably elongate north-northeastward across the Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, while taking on a negative tilt east of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast. In lower levels, this may be accompanied by broad, weak surface troughing developing across much of the Southeast, as surface ridging slowly shifts east of the Atlantic Seaboard. ...Southeast... Differences exist among the various model output, but the gradient between the low-level ridging and troughing may continue to support a belt of modest southerly low-level flow (20-30+ kt around 850 mb) along a corridor roughly from the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont. It appears probable that this will coincide with a deep lower/mid-tropospheric moist plume emanating from the lower latitudes, beneath a belt of moderate to strong, difluent southwesterly high-level flow, perhaps contributing to an environment at least conditionally supportive of supercells with potential to produce tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND WRN/CNTRL SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts. ...Discussion... Within the amplified, split westerlies, one significant mid/upper trough is forecast to continue digging inland of the U.S. Pacific coast during this period, downstream of a prominent ridge across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. It does appear that one or two smaller-scale perturbations emerging from this trough will accelerate northeastward across the northern U.S. Rockies into the Canadian Prairies, around the northwestern periphery of broad downstream ridging extending across the northern U.S. Great Plains through St. Lawrence Valley. In lower-levels, models indicate that deeper surface troughing will shift east of the Rockies into Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the Dakotas, while deepening southward through the southern high plains. However, destabilization near this feature is likely to be significantly inhibited by warm air aloft, and the lack of appreciable low-level moisture return due to the continuing presence of a broad mid/upper low initially centered across the lower Mississippi Valley. Cut off from the stronger westerlies, to the south of the broad mid-level ridging, movement of this low is likely to remain slow; however, models indicate that it will probably elongate north-northeastward across the Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, while taking on a negative tilt east of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast. In lower levels, this may be accompanied by broad, weak surface troughing developing across much of the Southeast, as surface ridging slowly shifts east of the Atlantic Seaboard. ...Southeast... Differences exist among the various model output, but the gradient between the low-level ridging and troughing may continue to support a belt of modest southerly low-level flow (20-30+ kt around 850 mb) along a corridor roughly from the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont. It appears probable that this will coincide with a deep lower/mid-tropospheric moist plume emanating from the lower latitudes, beneath a belt of moderate to strong, difluent southwesterly high-level flow, perhaps contributing to an environment at least conditionally supportive of supercells with potential to produce tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ..Lyons.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ..Lyons.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ..Lyons.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more