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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

WW 0244 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 244 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..05/10/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 244 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC031-045-061-067-069-101740- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-013-039-045-059-063-131-133-101740- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN GADSDEN GULF HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON GAC007-037-061-087-095-099-177-201-205-239-243-253-273-101740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER CALHOUN CLAY DECATUR DOUGHERTY EARLY Read more

WW 0244 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 244 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..05/10/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 244 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC031-045-061-067-069-101740- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-013-039-045-059-063-131-133-101740- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN GADSDEN GULF HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON GAC007-037-061-087-095-099-177-201-205-239-243-253-273-101740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER CALHOUN CLAY DECATUR DOUGHERTY EARLY Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more