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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The elevated area was expanded east across northern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota where overlap of sufficiently dry/drying fuels and winds near 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will exist this afternoon. The limiting/mitigating factor will be relative humidity, which may not fall below 20%. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the existing forecast. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging over the western US will continue to amplify today and tonight, as a blocking pattern with a cut off flow persists farther east. Strong southwesterly flow will begin to move overtop of the ridge and spread into the northern Rockies/Plains, deepening a lee cyclone/trough in southern Canada. This will support gusty southerly winds and some fire danger over the northern US. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... As the lee trough over the Rockies and southern Canada deepens, southerly low-level flow will increase across MT, the Dakotas and western MN. Ahead of returning surface moisture, several hours of low RH are expected through the afternoon. Area fuels have been mostly dry over the last several days, with little recent rainfall. With gusts to 15-20 mph, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. In addition to the dry and windy conditions, isolated high-based storms are possible over parts of central and eastern MT. With PWAT Values below 0.6 inches, significant rainfall is unlikely, though enough moisture likely supports some lightning risk. While the best storm coverage will be displaced from the most receptive fuels, a few strikes and gusty outflow winds are possible farther east where fuels could support some ignition potential. ...Southwest... Beneath the strong upper ridge over the western US, modest easterly mid-level flow will begin to impinge on parts of the Desert Southwest. Aided by local terrain, easterly gusts of 15-20 mph are possible through the day. With warm temperatures and little recent precipitation, afternoon RH values below 15% are expected, along with receptive fuels. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The elevated area was expanded east across northern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota where overlap of sufficiently dry/drying fuels and winds near 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will exist this afternoon. The limiting/mitigating factor will be relative humidity, which may not fall below 20%. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the existing forecast. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging over the western US will continue to amplify today and tonight, as a blocking pattern with a cut off flow persists farther east. Strong southwesterly flow will begin to move overtop of the ridge and spread into the northern Rockies/Plains, deepening a lee cyclone/trough in southern Canada. This will support gusty southerly winds and some fire danger over the northern US. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... As the lee trough over the Rockies and southern Canada deepens, southerly low-level flow will increase across MT, the Dakotas and western MN. Ahead of returning surface moisture, several hours of low RH are expected through the afternoon. Area fuels have been mostly dry over the last several days, with little recent rainfall. With gusts to 15-20 mph, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. In addition to the dry and windy conditions, isolated high-based storms are possible over parts of central and eastern MT. With PWAT Values below 0.6 inches, significant rainfall is unlikely, though enough moisture likely supports some lightning risk. While the best storm coverage will be displaced from the most receptive fuels, a few strikes and gusty outflow winds are possible farther east where fuels could support some ignition potential. ...Southwest... Beneath the strong upper ridge over the western US, modest easterly mid-level flow will begin to impinge on parts of the Desert Southwest. Aided by local terrain, easterly gusts of 15-20 mph are possible through the day. With warm temperatures and little recent precipitation, afternoon RH values below 15% are expected, along with receptive fuels. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The elevated area was expanded east across northern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota where overlap of sufficiently dry/drying fuels and winds near 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will exist this afternoon. The limiting/mitigating factor will be relative humidity, which may not fall below 20%. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the existing forecast. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging over the western US will continue to amplify today and tonight, as a blocking pattern with a cut off flow persists farther east. Strong southwesterly flow will begin to move overtop of the ridge and spread into the northern Rockies/Plains, deepening a lee cyclone/trough in southern Canada. This will support gusty southerly winds and some fire danger over the northern US. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... As the lee trough over the Rockies and southern Canada deepens, southerly low-level flow will increase across MT, the Dakotas and western MN. Ahead of returning surface moisture, several hours of low RH are expected through the afternoon. Area fuels have been mostly dry over the last several days, with little recent rainfall. With gusts to 15-20 mph, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. In addition to the dry and windy conditions, isolated high-based storms are possible over parts of central and eastern MT. With PWAT Values below 0.6 inches, significant rainfall is unlikely, though enough moisture likely supports some lightning risk. While the best storm coverage will be displaced from the most receptive fuels, a few strikes and gusty outflow winds are possible farther east where fuels could support some ignition potential. ...Southwest... Beneath the strong upper ridge over the western US, modest easterly mid-level flow will begin to impinge on parts of the Desert Southwest. Aided by local terrain, easterly gusts of 15-20 mph are possible through the day. With warm temperatures and little recent precipitation, afternoon RH values below 15% are expected, along with receptive fuels. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The elevated area was expanded east across northern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota where overlap of sufficiently dry/drying fuels and winds near 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will exist this afternoon. The limiting/mitigating factor will be relative humidity, which may not fall below 20%. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the existing forecast. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging over the western US will continue to amplify today and tonight, as a blocking pattern with a cut off flow persists farther east. Strong southwesterly flow will begin to move overtop of the ridge and spread into the northern Rockies/Plains, deepening a lee cyclone/trough in southern Canada. This will support gusty southerly winds and some fire danger over the northern US. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... As the lee trough over the Rockies and southern Canada deepens, southerly low-level flow will increase across MT, the Dakotas and western MN. Ahead of returning surface moisture, several hours of low RH are expected through the afternoon. Area fuels have been mostly dry over the last several days, with little recent rainfall. With gusts to 15-20 mph, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. In addition to the dry and windy conditions, isolated high-based storms are possible over parts of central and eastern MT. With PWAT Values below 0.6 inches, significant rainfall is unlikely, though enough moisture likely supports some lightning risk. While the best storm coverage will be displaced from the most receptive fuels, a few strikes and gusty outflow winds are possible farther east where fuels could support some ignition potential. ...Southwest... Beneath the strong upper ridge over the western US, modest easterly mid-level flow will begin to impinge on parts of the Desert Southwest. Aided by local terrain, easterly gusts of 15-20 mph are possible through the day. With warm temperatures and little recent precipitation, afternoon RH values below 15% are expected, along with receptive fuels. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The elevated area was expanded east across northern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota where overlap of sufficiently dry/drying fuels and winds near 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will exist this afternoon. The limiting/mitigating factor will be relative humidity, which may not fall below 20%. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the existing forecast. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging over the western US will continue to amplify today and tonight, as a blocking pattern with a cut off flow persists farther east. Strong southwesterly flow will begin to move overtop of the ridge and spread into the northern Rockies/Plains, deepening a lee cyclone/trough in southern Canada. This will support gusty southerly winds and some fire danger over the northern US. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... As the lee trough over the Rockies and southern Canada deepens, southerly low-level flow will increase across MT, the Dakotas and western MN. Ahead of returning surface moisture, several hours of low RH are expected through the afternoon. Area fuels have been mostly dry over the last several days, with little recent rainfall. With gusts to 15-20 mph, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. In addition to the dry and windy conditions, isolated high-based storms are possible over parts of central and eastern MT. With PWAT Values below 0.6 inches, significant rainfall is unlikely, though enough moisture likely supports some lightning risk. While the best storm coverage will be displaced from the most receptive fuels, a few strikes and gusty outflow winds are possible farther east where fuels could support some ignition potential. ...Southwest... Beneath the strong upper ridge over the western US, modest easterly mid-level flow will begin to impinge on parts of the Desert Southwest. Aided by local terrain, easterly gusts of 15-20 mph are possible through the day. With warm temperatures and little recent precipitation, afternoon RH values below 15% are expected, along with receptive fuels. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The elevated area was expanded east across northern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota where overlap of sufficiently dry/drying fuels and winds near 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will exist this afternoon. The limiting/mitigating factor will be relative humidity, which may not fall below 20%. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the existing forecast. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging over the western US will continue to amplify today and tonight, as a blocking pattern with a cut off flow persists farther east. Strong southwesterly flow will begin to move overtop of the ridge and spread into the northern Rockies/Plains, deepening a lee cyclone/trough in southern Canada. This will support gusty southerly winds and some fire danger over the northern US. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... As the lee trough over the Rockies and southern Canada deepens, southerly low-level flow will increase across MT, the Dakotas and western MN. Ahead of returning surface moisture, several hours of low RH are expected through the afternoon. Area fuels have been mostly dry over the last several days, with little recent rainfall. With gusts to 15-20 mph, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. In addition to the dry and windy conditions, isolated high-based storms are possible over parts of central and eastern MT. With PWAT Values below 0.6 inches, significant rainfall is unlikely, though enough moisture likely supports some lightning risk. While the best storm coverage will be displaced from the most receptive fuels, a few strikes and gusty outflow winds are possible farther east where fuels could support some ignition potential. ...Southwest... Beneath the strong upper ridge over the western US, modest easterly mid-level flow will begin to impinge on parts of the Desert Southwest. Aided by local terrain, easterly gusts of 15-20 mph are possible through the day. With warm temperatures and little recent precipitation, afternoon RH values below 15% are expected, along with receptive fuels. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0758 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0758 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0942 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Areas affected...much of the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101442Z - 101545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms will gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and a few may produce severe weather including brief/weak tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows low pressure over southern AL into the western FL Panhandle, with a cold front extending south from the low into the northeast Gulf. Meanwhile, visible satellite imagery shows heating is occurring ahead of the front, in the area of a diffuse warm front near the FL/AL/GA border. Cells just offshore already show mesocyclones, and the onshore environment is already favorable with a deep moist boundary layer and 0-1 SRH from 150-250 m2/s2. Although most of the convection is currently well offshore, continued heating along with the presence of the cold front should help focus further development today, at least in an isolated sense. The air mass should continue to recover northward into most of southern GA and more of eastern AL with time as well, expanding the threat area northward. ..Jewell/Mosier.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30298627 30608634 31038629 31588610 31868566 32228486 32218421 31898358 30898332 30438329 30028339 29828362 30008398 29888426 29548500 29618536 29918551 30168592 30298627 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0244 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0244 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0757 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH FL INTO FAR SOUTHEAST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0757 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Areas affected...North FL into far southeast GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101258Z - 101430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible this morning. DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCS has moved inland across the FL Big Bend region this morning. This system has generally been subsevere thus far since moving inland and has shown signs of weakening, but filtered downstream heating of a moist airmass will result in MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg with time this morning. This could allow some intensification as the remnant storm cluster approaches northeast FL, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds. Storms developing ahead of this cluster could also approach severe limits through the morning. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 29698296 30588205 31028161 31008129 30318123 30018120 29718114 29528125 29448161 29368196 29318228 29278265 29698296 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0756 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AL
Mesoscale Discussion 0756 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0708 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the FL Panhandle into far southeast AL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101208Z - 101415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A localized tornado and wind-damage threat may spread eastward this morning. DISCUSSION...A persistent storm cluster with embedded supercells is moving eastward this morning across the FL Panhandle, to the east of a surface low near Mobile Bay. Occasional upticks in rotation have been noted over the last hour as cells interact with a frontal zone that is very gradually moving northward across the area. Some additional northward progression of the front is possible through the morning, aided by the onset of modest diurnal heating downstream of ongoing convection. This would increase the area across the peninsula where an organized severe threat could evolve over the next 2-3 hours. A supercell currently south of Fort Walton Beach could pose a threat if it moves onshore, and additional cell development is possible within developing convection west of Panama City. Near and south of the front, favorable low-level moisture and veering wind profiles (with effective SRH increasing above 100 m2/s2) will continue to support localized tornado and wind-damage potential with any sustained supercells. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 30988675 31098553 30998502 30578490 30018483 29938486 29758499 29538529 29608559 29758590 29898630 29988670 30198700 30988675 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Multiple areas of strong storms are ongoing early this morning over the northeast Gulf of America, originating within a moist/unstable warm sector that continues to nudge closer to the coastal Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. As a moist low-level level influx continues, a severe threat will exist today particularly for coastal areas, with the northern extent of the severe risk not entirely clear. However, some severe risk should exist as far north as the weak surface low and warm front effectively makes a northward progression. Where sufficient destabilization does occur, moderately strong/veering wind profiles will support storms capable of damaging winds and some tornado potential. This appears to mainly be across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Non-supercell processes might even be a factor for funnel/brief tornado potential farther west-northwest across Alabama toward the frontal wave/surface triple point, in closer proximity to the upper low. Otherwise, more of a damaging wind/some hail risk will exist southward across parts of the Florida Peninsula. For short-term info for northeast Florida/southeast Georgia, see Mesoscale Discussion 757. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating and orographic lift over western Montana will favor widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Multiple areas of strong storms are ongoing early this morning over the northeast Gulf of America, originating within a moist/unstable warm sector that continues to nudge closer to the coastal Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. As a moist low-level level influx continues, a severe threat will exist today particularly for coastal areas, with the northern extent of the severe risk not entirely clear. However, some severe risk should exist as far north as the weak surface low and warm front effectively makes a northward progression. Where sufficient destabilization does occur, moderately strong/veering wind profiles will support storms capable of damaging winds and some tornado potential. This appears to mainly be across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Non-supercell processes might even be a factor for funnel/brief tornado potential farther west-northwest across Alabama toward the frontal wave/surface triple point, in closer proximity to the upper low. Otherwise, more of a damaging wind/some hail risk will exist southward across parts of the Florida Peninsula. For short-term info for northeast Florida/southeast Georgia, see Mesoscale Discussion 757. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating and orographic lift over western Montana will favor widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Multiple areas of strong storms are ongoing early this morning over the northeast Gulf of America, originating within a moist/unstable warm sector that continues to nudge closer to the coastal Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. As a moist low-level level influx continues, a severe threat will exist today particularly for coastal areas, with the northern extent of the severe risk not entirely clear. However, some severe risk should exist as far north as the weak surface low and warm front effectively makes a northward progression. Where sufficient destabilization does occur, moderately strong/veering wind profiles will support storms capable of damaging winds and some tornado potential. This appears to mainly be across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Non-supercell processes might even be a factor for funnel/brief tornado potential farther west-northwest across Alabama toward the frontal wave/surface triple point, in closer proximity to the upper low. Otherwise, more of a damaging wind/some hail risk will exist southward across parts of the Florida Peninsula. For short-term info for northeast Florida/southeast Georgia, see Mesoscale Discussion 757. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating and orographic lift over western Montana will favor widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Multiple areas of strong storms are ongoing early this morning over the northeast Gulf of America, originating within a moist/unstable warm sector that continues to nudge closer to the coastal Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. As a moist low-level level influx continues, a severe threat will exist today particularly for coastal areas, with the northern extent of the severe risk not entirely clear. However, some severe risk should exist as far north as the weak surface low and warm front effectively makes a northward progression. Where sufficient destabilization does occur, moderately strong/veering wind profiles will support storms capable of damaging winds and some tornado potential. This appears to mainly be across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Non-supercell processes might even be a factor for funnel/brief tornado potential farther west-northwest across Alabama toward the frontal wave/surface triple point, in closer proximity to the upper low. Otherwise, more of a damaging wind/some hail risk will exist southward across parts of the Florida Peninsula. For short-term info for northeast Florida/southeast Georgia, see Mesoscale Discussion 757. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating and orographic lift over western Montana will favor widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Multiple areas of strong storms are ongoing early this morning over the northeast Gulf of America, originating within a moist/unstable warm sector that continues to nudge closer to the coastal Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. As a moist low-level level influx continues, a severe threat will exist today particularly for coastal areas, with the northern extent of the severe risk not entirely clear. However, some severe risk should exist as far north as the weak surface low and warm front effectively makes a northward progression. Where sufficient destabilization does occur, moderately strong/veering wind profiles will support storms capable of damaging winds and some tornado potential. This appears to mainly be across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Non-supercell processes might even be a factor for funnel/brief tornado potential farther west-northwest across Alabama toward the frontal wave/surface triple point, in closer proximity to the upper low. Otherwise, more of a damaging wind/some hail risk will exist southward across parts of the Florida Peninsula. For short-term info for northeast Florida/southeast Georgia, see Mesoscale Discussion 757. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating and orographic lift over western Montana will favor widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Multiple areas of strong storms are ongoing early this morning over the northeast Gulf of America, originating within a moist/unstable warm sector that continues to nudge closer to the coastal Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. As a moist low-level level influx continues, a severe threat will exist today particularly for coastal areas, with the northern extent of the severe risk not entirely clear. However, some severe risk should exist as far north as the weak surface low and warm front effectively makes a northward progression. Where sufficient destabilization does occur, moderately strong/veering wind profiles will support storms capable of damaging winds and some tornado potential. This appears to mainly be across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Non-supercell processes might even be a factor for funnel/brief tornado potential farther west-northwest across Alabama toward the frontal wave/surface triple point, in closer proximity to the upper low. Otherwise, more of a damaging wind/some hail risk will exist southward across parts of the Florida Peninsula. For short-term info for northeast Florida/southeast Georgia, see Mesoscale Discussion 757. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating and orographic lift over western Montana will favor widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Multiple areas of strong storms are ongoing early this morning over the northeast Gulf of America, originating within a moist/unstable warm sector that continues to nudge closer to the coastal Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. As a moist low-level level influx continues, a severe threat will exist today particularly for coastal areas, with the northern extent of the severe risk not entirely clear. However, some severe risk should exist as far north as the weak surface low and warm front effectively makes a northward progression. Where sufficient destabilization does occur, moderately strong/veering wind profiles will support storms capable of damaging winds and some tornado potential. This appears to mainly be across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Non-supercell processes might even be a factor for funnel/brief tornado potential farther west-northwest across Alabama toward the frontal wave/surface triple point, in closer proximity to the upper low. Otherwise, more of a damaging wind/some hail risk will exist southward across parts of the Florida Peninsula. For short-term info for northeast Florida/southeast Georgia, see Mesoscale Discussion 757. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating and orographic lift over western Montana will favor widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Multiple areas of strong storms are ongoing early this morning over the northeast Gulf of America, originating within a moist/unstable warm sector that continues to nudge closer to the coastal Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. As a moist low-level level influx continues, a severe threat will exist today particularly for coastal areas, with the northern extent of the severe risk not entirely clear. However, some severe risk should exist as far north as the weak surface low and warm front effectively makes a northward progression. Where sufficient destabilization does occur, moderately strong/veering wind profiles will support storms capable of damaging winds and some tornado potential. This appears to mainly be across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Non-supercell processes might even be a factor for funnel/brief tornado potential farther west-northwest across Alabama toward the frontal wave/surface triple point, in closer proximity to the upper low. Otherwise, more of a damaging wind/some hail risk will exist southward across parts of the Florida Peninsula. For short-term info for northeast Florida/southeast Georgia, see Mesoscale Discussion 757. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating and orographic lift over western Montana will favor widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Multiple areas of strong storms are ongoing early this morning over the northeast Gulf of America, originating within a moist/unstable warm sector that continues to nudge closer to the coastal Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. As a moist low-level level influx continues, a severe threat will exist today particularly for coastal areas, with the northern extent of the severe risk not entirely clear. However, some severe risk should exist as far north as the weak surface low and warm front effectively makes a northward progression. Where sufficient destabilization does occur, moderately strong/veering wind profiles will support storms capable of damaging winds and some tornado potential. This appears to mainly be across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Non-supercell processes might even be a factor for funnel/brief tornado potential farther west-northwest across Alabama toward the frontal wave/surface triple point, in closer proximity to the upper low. Otherwise, more of a damaging wind/some hail risk will exist southward across parts of the Florida Peninsula. For short-term info for northeast Florida/southeast Georgia, see Mesoscale Discussion 757. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating and orographic lift over western Montana will favor widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Multiple areas of strong storms are ongoing early this morning over the northeast Gulf of America, originating within a moist/unstable warm sector that continues to nudge closer to the coastal Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. As a moist low-level level influx continues, a severe threat will exist today particularly for coastal areas, with the northern extent of the severe risk not entirely clear. However, some severe risk should exist as far north as the weak surface low and warm front effectively makes a northward progression. Where sufficient destabilization does occur, moderately strong/veering wind profiles will support storms capable of damaging winds and some tornado potential. This appears to mainly be across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Non-supercell processes might even be a factor for funnel/brief tornado potential farther west-northwest across Alabama toward the frontal wave/surface triple point, in closer proximity to the upper low. Otherwise, more of a damaging wind/some hail risk will exist southward across parts of the Florida Peninsula. For short-term info for northeast Florida/southeast Georgia, see Mesoscale Discussion 757. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating and orographic lift over western Montana will favor widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/10/2025 Read more