National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 653 WTPZ35 KNHC 220235 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 ...IVO STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES BRISKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 111.3W ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 111.3 West. Ivo is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest is expected by late Thursday, with a northwestward motion continuing through Friday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected and Ivo is forecast to become a hurricane Thursday night or Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...IVO STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES BRISKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 the center of Ivo was located near 16.1, -111.3 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 610 FOPZ15 KNHC 220235 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 1 59(60) 20(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ISLA CLARION 50 X 18(18) 20(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) ISLA CLARION 64 X 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 115W 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 34 1 5( 6) 36(42) 10(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) 20N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 11(21) X(21) X(21) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 21(33) 1(34) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212310
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Ivo are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Ivo are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 212210 CCA TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 2...Correction NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Corrected storm ID in header block ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IVO... ...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 109.5W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 109.5 West. Ivo is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest is expected by Thursday, with a northwestward motion continuing through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected and Ivo is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IVO... ...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 the center of Ivo was located near 15.8, -109.5 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 212203 CCA TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 2...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Corrected storm ID in header block Over the past several hours the cyclone has exhibited an ongoing increase in organization, with a curved band wrapping around the low level center apparent in both satellite imagery and microwave data. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt and this is a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Ivo's initial motion is 285/17 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone will continue to steer it to the west-northwest through much of tonight. By Thursday, a weakness is expected to develop to the northwest of the cyclone which will result in a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed. The cyclone is then forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder of the forecast period. Ivo will be over warm SSTs near 30C and in a moist environment for the next 48 hours, which should favor intensification. And, although the SHIPS guidance suggests 15 kt of northeasterly shear may be affecting the cyclone, the satellite appearance does not suggest that this shear is having much of impact at this time. Based on the favorable environment, steady strengthening is forecast, and Ivo is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. By 72 hours, the cyclone will begin to move over much cooler waters and into a stable air mass while undergoing increasing southwesterly shear. This should cause the cyclone to weaken and it is expected to become a convection-free post-tropical cyclone by day 5. The official forecast has been increased slightly from the previous one and is close to the corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 15.8N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 25.8N 119.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 28.8N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 212201 CCA TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 CORRECTED STORM ID IN THE HEADER BLOCK THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.5W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.5W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 108.8W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 25.8N 119.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 28.8N 121.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 109.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 20:35:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 21:31:07 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 212034 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102014 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Over the past several hours the cyclone has exhibited an ongoing increase in organization, with a curved band wrapping around the low level center apparent in both satellite imagery and microwave data. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt and this is a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Ivo's initial motion is 285/17 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone will continue to steer it to the west-northwest through much of tonight. By Thursday, a weakness is expected to develop to the northwest of the cyclone which will result in a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed. The cyclone is then forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder of the forecast period. Ivo will be over warm SSTs near 30C and in a moist environment for the next 48 hours, which should favor intensification. And, although the SHIPS guidance suggests 15 kt of northeasterly shear may be affecting the cyclone, the satellite appearance does not suggest that this shear is having much of impact at this time. Based on the favorable environment, steady strengthening is forecast, and Ivo is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. By 72 hours, the cyclone will begin to move over much cooler waters and into a stable air mass while undergoing increasing southwesterly shear. This should cause the cyclone to weaken and it is expected to become a convection-free post-tropical cyclone by day 5. The official forecast has been increased slightly from the previous one and is close to the corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 15.8N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 25.8N 119.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 28.8N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 212034 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X 18(18) 61(79) 5(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) ISLA CLARION 50 X 2( 2) 42(44) 4(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 19(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 23(25) 27(52) 4(56) X(56) X(56) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 14(19) 1(20) X(20) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25(32) 3(35) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 30N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 212034 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.5W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.5W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 108.8W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 25.8N 119.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 28.8N 121.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 109.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 212034 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102014 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IVO... ...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 109.5W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 109.5 West. Ivo is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest is expected by Thursday, with a northwestward motion continuing through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected and Ivo is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IVO... ...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 the center of Ivo was located near 15.8, -109.5 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211734
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Ten-E, located several hundred miles
south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 14:52:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 15:31:20 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 211451 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Satellite imagery and microwave data indicate that the disturbance that has been tracked to the south of Mexico for the past several days has become much better organized since yesterday. An early morning scatterometer pass showed a nearly closed surface low with peak winds of 30 kt. Since that time, the appearance of the disturbance has continued to improve, suggesting that the low has most likely closed at the surface. Based on this data, advisories are being initiated for Tropical Depression 10-E. Subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB suggest a 30 kt intensity, which will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The depression's initial motion is 285/16 kt. The cyclone is being steered to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends from northwestern Mexico across much of the eastern Pacific. Model guidance is in good agreement that a weakness will develop in this ridge over the next day or so to the northwest of the depression. This should cause the system to make a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed in about 24 hours. The depression is then forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder of the forecast period. The cyclone is expected to move over very warm waters of around 30 C, through a moist environment, and with 10-15 kt of northeasterly shear over the next 48 hours. With these conditions, steady strengthening is forecast during that time frame, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and a minimal hurricane in 48 hours. The official forecast is close to the model intensity guidance consensus through 24 hours, and is then on the higher end of the guidance from 24 to 72 hours out of respect for a possible decrease in shear. In a few days the cyclone will move over much cooler waters and into a stable air mass while undergoing increasing shear. This will cause the cyclone to weaken and it is expected to become a convection-free post-tropical cyclone by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 15.4N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 15.9N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 16.6N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 21.0N 117.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 24.4N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 27.6N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 211450 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 110W 34 16 11(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 7( 7) 5(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 47(50) 30(80) 5(85) X(85) X(85) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 12(12) 26(38) 5(43) X(43) X(43) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 31(44) 16(60) 1(61) X(61) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) X(20) X(20) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 4(22) 1(23) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 8(26) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 211450 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 107.3W ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 107.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn to the northwest along with a decrease in forward speed is expected by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast for the next couple of days and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight, and a hurricane by Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 the center of Ten-E was located near 15.4, -107.3 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.