National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...IVO REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...SWELLS NOW REACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 the center of Ivo was located near 22.3, -116.5 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 242045 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 2100 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 116.5W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 120SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 116.5W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 116.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 23.7N 117.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.2N 117.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.3N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.8N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 116.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241712
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located more than 400 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop by the middle of next
week just offshore of the west-central coast of Mexico near the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some development of
this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 16:11:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 16:11:20 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 513 WTPZ45 KNHC 241453 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Deep convection associated with Ivo has made a comeback during the past several hours, with a large convective mass now near the center over the western semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little more since the last advisory, and the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly conservative 35 kt. The cyclone is moving steadily over cooler sea surface temperatures and continued weakening is expected. The new intensity forecast therefore follows the guidance and the previous forecast in calling for Ivo to weaken to a depression by 24 h, to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h, and to dissipate completely by 72 h. The initial motion is 330/8. The subtropical ridge to the east should steer Ivo generally north-northwestward for the next couple of days, with some decrease in forward speed before the system dissipates. The new official forecast track is again similar to the previous track. Due to the persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated with Ivo during the last few days, high swells continue to propagate northeastward toward portions of the southern Baja California peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 21.8N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 23.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 24.6N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 26.0N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 26.8N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 241453 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1500 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 241451 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1500 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 116.4W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 120SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 150SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 116.4W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 116.2W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 24.6N 117.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.0N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.8N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 116.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 241451 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 ...IVO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE... ...SWELLS PROPAGATING TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 116.4W ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 116.4 West. Ivo is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Ivo is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today or tonight and degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo are propagating toward portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...IVO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE... ...SWELLS PROPAGATING TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 the center of Ivo was located near 21.8, -116.4 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241108
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located almost 400 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop by the middle of next
week just offshore of the west-central coast of Mexico near the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some development of
this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 08:34:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 09:24:28 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240832 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 The cloud pattern associated with Ivo has deteriorated significantly during the past several hours, and deep convection is now limited to a small cell near the center. The middle-level circulation and the cloud debris have moved away from the center due to northeasterly shear. Dvorak numbers continue to decrease, and an average of these estimates yields an initial intensity of 40 kt. This is consistent with a recent ASCAT pass which measured one vector of 40 kt in the southern semicircle. The winds have subsided considerably in the remainder of the circulation. Ivo is already moving over increasingly cooler waters. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for weakening, and Ivo is expected to become a remnant low in 36 hours or even earlier and then dissipate in 2 or 3 days. The best estimate of the initial motion is north-northwestward or 335 degrees at 9 kt, and Ivo should continue on that direction steered by the flow around the subtropical high. A decrease in forward speed is anticipated as the cyclone reaches weaker steering currents. The NHC forecast is not different from the previous one and is almost on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE. Due to the persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated with Ivo during the last few days, high swells are propagating northeastward toward portions of the southern Baja California peninsula as indicated by recent altimeter data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 21.4N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 22.7N 116.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 24.3N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 26.0N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0600Z 27.2N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 240832 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0900 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240831 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 ...IVO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...SWELLS PROPAGATING TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 115.8W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 115.8 West. Ivo is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Ivo is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today and degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) to the south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo are propagating toward portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...IVO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...SWELLS PROPAGATING TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 the center of Ivo was located near 21.4, -115.8 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240831 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0900 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 115.8W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 150SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 210SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 115.8W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 115.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.7N 116.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.3N 117.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.2N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 115.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240507
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form just offshore of the
west-central coast of Mexico near the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula by the middle of next week. Some development of
this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 02:35:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 03:31:08 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Deep convection associated with Ivo has become more separated from the low-level center this evening, and the cloud tops have also warmed during the past few hours. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased and now support an initial wind speed of 45 kt. Although the vertical wind shear over the cyclone is predicted to decrease during the next 24 hours, Ivo will be moving over progressively cooler waters and into less favorable thermodynamic conditions. This should cause the storm to gradually weaken, and once Ivo moves over SSTs of 23-24 degrees Celsius on Sunday the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low. Ivo is moving north-northwestward or 335/9 kt. There is little change to the previous track forecast reasoning. Ivo should continue to move north-northwestward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. Once the cyclone weakens and becomes a vertically shallow system, it is likely to decelerate as it comes under the influence of the low-level steering flow. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies closest to the HFIP corrected consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 20.5N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 21.6N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 23.3N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 25.1N 117.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 26.6N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z 28.6N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 339 FOPZ15 KNHC 240234 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 50 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 25N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN