National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 010831 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 ...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 107.6W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 107.6 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected by Monday and continuing into Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Juliette is expected to become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 1 the center of Juliette was located near 13.2, -107.6 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010533
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 31 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization and a
tropical cyclone could be forming several hundred miles southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico. Recent satellite-derived winds indicate that
this low pressure system is already producing surface winds to near
tropical storm force east of the center. Environmental conditions
are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression or
a tropical storm is likely to form on Sunday while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at around 10 mph. For additional
information see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010004
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 31 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Updated to include High Seas Forecasts reference

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day
or so while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
For additional information see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312316
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 31 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day
or so while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311735
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 31 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico have become better organized since
yesterday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form during the next 2 or 3 days while the system moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311127
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 31 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico has become better
organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression is expected to form early next week while the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 310539
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 30 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico is producing a large area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form next week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 30 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers
and thundertorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form early next week as it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301718
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 30 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system
early next week as it moves generally west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301130
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 30 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure area is expected to form over the weekend several
hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system next week as it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300550
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 29 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure area is expected to form by early next week several
hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some subsequent development of this system is possible
as it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292326
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 29 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291701
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 29 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291129
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 29 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 290505
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 28 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282313
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 28 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281718
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 28 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281122
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 28 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 280506
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 27 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts