National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 08:32:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 08:32:29 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 030831 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 64 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 70 6(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) 20N 115W 50 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 1 4( 5) 46(51) 41(92) 2(94) X(94) X(94) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 49(58) 6(64) X(64) X(64) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 6(41) X(41) X(41) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 5(30) X(30) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) X(20) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030831 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Juliette has rapidly intensified 50 kt since this time last night, and the recent satellite signature has continued to improve. The initial intensity of 105 kt is based on satellite intensity estimates of T5.5/102 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT, and also the recently improved eye pattern. The initial motion estimate is 310/08 kt. A large subtropical ridge located to the north and northeast of Juliette should keep the hurricane moving northwestward today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Wednesday, which should continue into Friday. By day 5, a westward motion is expected to begin as Juliette weakens considerably and becomes steered by the easterly trade wind flow. The new official forecast is a little north or to the right of the previous advisory track, and lies between the consensus models HCCA and TVCE to the north, and FSSE to the south. Some additional strengthening is forecast with Juliette possibly reaching category 4 status later today or tonight. Thereafter, cold upwelling is expected to begin, which will induce a slow weakening trend on Wednesday. The weakening rate is expected to be tempered by low vertical shear conditions and a very favorable upper-level outflow regime. By day 3 and beyond, however, more significant upwelling is expected to enhance the weakening process, with rapid weakening becoming a distinct possibility on days 4 and 5. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies slightly above all of the guidance for the next 24 hours, and then closely follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus models on days 2-5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 18.2N 114.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 18.7N 115.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 19.2N 116.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 19.7N 118.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 20.4N 120.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 22.0N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 23.4N 128.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 24.0N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 030830 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.5W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.5W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 114.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.7N 115.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.2N 116.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.7N 118.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.4N 120.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 124.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.4N 128.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 24.0N 132.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 114.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 030830 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE JULIETTE BEARING DOWN ON CLARION ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 114.5W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF CLARION ISLAND MEXICO ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 114.5 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Juliette is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Juliette could become a category 4 hurricane later today or early Wednesday. Steady weakening is expected to begin by late Wednesday and continue through Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A Mexican Navy automated weather station located on Clarion Island recently reported a sustained wind of 57 mph (91 km/h) and a gust to 74 mph (118 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE JULIETTE BEARING DOWN ON CLARION ISLAND... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Sep 3 the center of Juliette was located near 18.2, -114.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 030514
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 2 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 02:36:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 03:31:56 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030233 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 Enhanced BD-curve infrared GOES-17 imagery shows that Juliette is undergoing a rapid intensification evolution. An earlier GMI microwave pass revealed that the eyewall has completed closed off, and this is also visible in the infrared images as a -70C black ring. A blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates yield 80 kt, but since that time, due to the much improved inner core now depicted in imagery, the initial intensity is raised to 100 kt. Rapid strengthening should continue during the next 12 hours or so. Beyond the short term intensification trend, Juliette is forecast to continue to move within a favorable atmosphere consisting of low deep-layer shear, a diffluent upper wind pattern, and warm oceanic temperatures which should allow Juliette to strengthen a bit further. Afterward, a steady weakening trend is forecast as Juliette traverses cooler water and moves into a more stable, drier marine layer air mass. Juliette's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/9 kt. The cyclone should continue moving generally northwestward, or west-northwestward within the mid-tropospheric steering flow produced by a subtropical ridge to the north of Juliette, and an upper-level low just to the west-southwest. There's still quite a bit of across-track model spread beyond the 48 hour period in response to continued large-scale synoptic dissimilarities in the strength of the subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and is close to the TVCE consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 17.8N 114.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 18.4N 115.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 18.9N 116.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 19.4N 117.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 19.9N 119.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 21.4N 123.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 23.0N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 24.1N 131.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 030233 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 92 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) ISLA CLARION 64 70 2(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 51 21(72) 2(74) X(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) 20N 115W 50 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 21(23) 55(78) 14(92) X(92) X(92) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 26(62) X(62) X(62) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 20(35) X(35) X(35) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 12(34) X(34) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 1(15) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 030233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 ...JULIETTE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY... ...NOW A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 114.0W ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 114.0 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). The hurricane is expected to continue at about this forward speed toward the northwest or west-northwest for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Juliette is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid strengthening is anticipated tonight and Tuesday. Gradual weakening is expected to commence by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...JULIETTE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY... ...NOW A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Sep 2 the center of Juliette was located near 17.8, -114.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 030232 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 114.0W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 70SE 30SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 114.0W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 113.6W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 115.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.9N 116.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.4N 117.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.9N 119.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.4N 123.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N 127.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 24.1N 131.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 114.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 022318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 2 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Juliette, located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2019 20:37:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2019 21:32:14 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 022036 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 Juliette is clearly on the upswing. A banding eye is present in visible and IR imagery, and satellite intensity estimates around 1800 UTC were all near 65 kt. The IR presentation of the cyclone has continued to improve since then and the initial intensity has been raised to 70 kt, making making Juliette the 5th hurricane of the eastern North Pacific season, and the first hurricane in that basin since July 31. The hurricane has quickly strengthened today and I see no reason why this won't continue for the next 12 to 24 hours. Rapid intensification still seems like a distinct possibility, though the intensity guidance certainly suggests otherwise. It is surprising that none of the guidance shows Juliette strengthening very quickly during the next day or two despite the apparent favorable environment the hurricane is embedded within and the current intensification trend. The NHC forecast remains above all of the intensity models for the first 48 hours, given the impressive structure of the hurricane. Beyond that time, the forecast is again close to the multi-model consensus and shows Juliette weakening quickly as it moves over cooler SSTs and into a dry environment. Juliette has slowed down and the initial motion is now 305/10 kt. There is no change in the forecast reasoning, and Juliette is still generally expected to be steered west-northwestward by an extensive deep-layer ridge located to the north and northeast of the cyclone. The models remain in very good agreement on the forecast of Juliette for the first 3 or 4 days of the forecast, and confidence remains high through that period. The global models then vary on the strength of the ridge and the model spread is notably higher by the end of the forecast. For now, the NHC forecast continues to split the various models and closely follows the multi-model consensus at all times. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 17.2N 113.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 18.6N 115.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 19.1N 117.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 19.6N 118.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 21.1N 122.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 22.5N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 24.0N 131.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 022035 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 96 4(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 44 39(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) ISLA CLARION 64 11 41(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 15N 115W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 11 47(58) 6(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 20N 115W 50 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 44(55) 34(89) X(89) X(89) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 43(56) X(56) X(56) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 1(31) X(31) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 19(32) X(32) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 022035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 ...JULIETTE BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...THE FIFTH ONE OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 113.3W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 113.3 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). The hurricane is expected to continue at this forward speed toward the northwest or west-northwest for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated for the next day or two. Weakening is forecast to begin by Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...JULIETTE BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...THE FIFTH ONE OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON... As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Sep 2 the center of Juliette was located near 17.2, -113.3 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 022034 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 113.3W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 70SE 30SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 113.3W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 112.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.6N 115.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.1N 117.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 118.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 122.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 127.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.0N 131.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 113.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY