National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 041443 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122019 500 AM HST Wed Sep 04 2019 A small well-defined low pressure system quickly developed late yesterday and early this morning over the far western portion of the eastern North Pacific. Beginning around 0600 UTC, a large increase in convection was noted with the low, and convection has continued to increase since then. AMSR-2 imagery at 1030 UTC showed that the convection is fairly well organized in bands, enough to designate the system as a tropical cyclone. Advisories have therefore been initiated on Tropical Depression Twelve-E. The initial intensity of the depression is 25 kt, based on ASCAT data from early this morning. The track forecast is based on a blend of the explicit low positions in the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models. All of these models forecast that the depression will move generally westward for the next 3 days, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest, steered primarily by a low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of the depression. There is a fair amount of difference in those models regarding the speed at which the depression will move west, and this appears to be the largest source of uncertainty in the forecast. The confidence in the track forecast is quite low for this initial advisory, but hopefully will increase with subsequent forecasts. The depression appears to be located within an environment that will support at least slow strengthening. In fact, the GFS, SHIPS and ECMWF-based SHIPS models all call for strengthening at varying rates. Strong shear to the north and northwest of the depression could be a limiting factor in a few days, especially if the depression moves farther north than currently expected. The NHC forecast accordingly calls for slow strengthening through 96 h. More intensity guidance will be available with the next advisory, and users should keep in mind that large changes may be required to the intensity forecast based on that guidance. Confidence in this aspect of the forecast is also lower than usual. This system has moved into the Central Pacific basin and subsequent advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 13.2N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 12.8N 141.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 12.6N 143.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 12.6N 144.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 12.6N 145.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 13.2N 148.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 14.5N 154.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 16.0N 161.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 041442 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122019 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 19(33) 1(34) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 19(47) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BUOY 51002 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 15N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 15N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 041442 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122019 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 140.5W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 140.5W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 140.0W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 12.8N 141.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 12.6N 143.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 12.6N 144.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.6N 145.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 13.2N 148.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 14.5N 154.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 16.0N 161.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 140.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP2...WMO HEADER WTPA22 PHFO. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 041442 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122019 500 AM HST Wed Sep 04 2019 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS AND MOVES IMMEDIATELY INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 140.5W ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 140.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general westward motion at a similar or slightly slower forward speed is anticipated for the next two to three days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast and the system could become a tropical storm on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 AM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2, WMO header WTPA32 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS AND MOVES IMMEDIATELY INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... As of 5:00 AM HST Wed Sep 4 the center of Twelve-E was located near 13.2, -140.5 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS AND MOVES IMMEDIATELY INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... As of 5:00 AM HST Wed Sep 4 the center of Twelve-E was located near 13.2, -140.5 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 14:36:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 14:36:56 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 041434 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 28 56(84) 1(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) 20N 120W 50 1 31(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 20N 120W 64 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 12(22) 1(23) X(23) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 041433 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 ...JULIETTE WEAKENING OVER THE PACIFIC FAR FROM ANY LAND AREAS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 117.1W ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 117.1 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). Juliette is expected to move west-northwest at a slightly faster forward speed during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Houston

...JULIETTE WEAKENING OVER THE PACIFIC FAR FROM ANY LAND AREAS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 4 the center of Juliette was located near 19.5, -117.1 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 511 WTPZ21 KNHC 041432 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 117.1W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 117.1W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 116.8W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.1N 118.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.9N 119.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.8N 121.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.7N 123.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.4N 127.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 23.0N 131.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 23.0N 135.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 117.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON

730
ABPZ20 KNHC 041156
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 4 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Satellite data indicate that a small area of low pressure has
formed in the far southwestern portion of the eastern Pacific about
1100 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. The
associated shower and thunderstorm activity has quickly become
better organized overnight and a tropical depression could be
forming. If recent development trends continue, advisories could
be initiated on this system later today or tonight. The system will
be moving into the Central Pacific basin this morning. Future
information on this system can be found in Tropical Weather Outlooks
issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center can be found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header
ACPN50 PHFO and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 10:30:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 09:45:15 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 040845 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.4W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.4W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 116.1W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 120.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 126.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 23.0N 130.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 134.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 116.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON

...JULIETTE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE OPEN OCEAN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 4 the center of Juliette was located near 19.1, -116.4 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 040846 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 ...JULIETTE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE OPEN OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 116.4W ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 116.4 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Houston

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 040846 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 34 4 71(75) 15(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) 20N 120W 50 1 19(20) 29(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 20N 120W 64 X 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) X(17) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 040846 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 The appearance of Juliette in satellite continues to show a weakening trend early this morning. Multiple warm spots are evident in infrared imagery, but there has not been a consistent well-defined eye during the past several hours. The latest subjective and objective T-numbers provided by the satellite fix agencies also continue to show gradual weakening. Based on this input, the initial intensity is lowered to 95 kt for this advisory. Note that a 0410z ASCAT pass was used to adjust the initial wind radii for this advisory. The apparent motion appears to be somewhat slower than the previous 12 hours. For this advisory, the initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 300/5 kt. Juliette is being steered by the circulation around a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge extending over the northeastern Pacific from the southwestern United States. This feature is expected to steer Juliette west-northwestward during the next few days. Toward the end of the forecast period, a westward motion is forecast as Juliette weakens and loses most of its deep convection. The weakening system will then likely be steered by the low-level easterly flow. The latest track forecast is close to the previous advisory package, with some nudging toward the most recent NOAA HFIP HCCA, ECMWF ensemble mean, and the GFEX consensus model. Cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures, an intruding dry, stable, surrounding environment, and increasing southwesterly shear should cause steady weakening of the cyclone during the next 5 days. The latest intensity forecast is showing a slightly faster weakening trend compared with the previous advisory package. Note that much of the guidance suggests the weakening trend may be even faster than the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 19.1N 116.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 21.1N 120.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 23.0N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 23.0N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 23.0N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Houston

...JULIETTE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE OPEN OCEAN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 4 the center of Juliette was located near 19.1, -116.4 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 040504
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 3 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart