National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 060248 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 121.8W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 121.8W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 121.3W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.7N 127.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.7N 129.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.5N 133.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 23.3N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.6N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 121.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 052324
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 5 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 20:35:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 21:38:50 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 052033 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Juliette's structure remains well defined in visible satellite imagery, with a lose banding eye evident. Recent microwaves images, however, indicate that there are some breaks in the band and that the eye is open to the southwest. An average of the latest Dvorak data-T and current intensity (CI) numbers from SAB and TAFB yields a 70 kt estimate, while a UW/CIMSS AMSU estimate indicates 75-kt, and the latter is the basis for the new advisory intensity. Juliette will be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into a drier, and more stable air mass during the next few days. These unfavorable factors should result in gradual weakening of the hurricane. Increasing southwesterly shear by 72 hours is likely to cause a further demise of the cyclone, and Juliette is now anticipated to become post-tropical by day 3. Juliette is moving slightly faster toward the northwest or 305/10 kt. A northwestward to west-northwestward motion around the southwestern portion of a subtropical ridge should continue tonight and Saturday. After that time, a turn toward the west is expected as Juliette weakens and comes under the influence of the low-level easterly steering flow. Although the track guidance is in good agreement on this general scenario, there are some significant differences in the future forward speed of Juliette. Given this model spread, the NHC track prediction remains fairly close to the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 21.3N 120.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 23.5N 126.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 23.8N 128.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 23.6N 132.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 09/1800Z 23.3N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1800Z 23.2N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 052033 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 120W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 125W 34 2 11(13) 11(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 16(30) X(30) X(30) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 052033 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 ...JULIETTE FINALLY RESUMES WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 120.9W ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 120.9 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest should begin tonight or early Friday. A turn toward the west is forecast on Saturday and a general westward motion should continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Juliette is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...JULIETTE FINALLY RESUMES WEAKENING... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 5 the center of Juliette was located near 21.3, -120.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051724
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 5 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 14:43:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 15:38:59 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 051441 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 50 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 25N 120W 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 25N 125W 34 1 5( 6) 21(27) 2(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 16(22) 1(23) X(23) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 051441 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 119.9W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 119.9W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 119.6W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.5N 121.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.6N 127.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.6N 131.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 23.2N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 23.0N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 119.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 051441 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 ...JULIETTE STILL MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH... ...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 119.9W ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 119.9 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A slightly faster west-northwestward to westward motion is expected to begin on Friday, and this general motion should continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Juliette is expected to weaken to a tropical storm on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...JULIETTE STILL MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH... ...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 5 the center of Juliette was located near 20.6, -119.9 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 There has been little overall change in Juliette's cloud pattern this morning. The hurricane still has a large, ragged eye, but the cloud tops within the surrounding ring of convection have warmed during the past couple of hours. Earlier microwave imagery showed a well-defined low-level eye that is located a little south of the satellite fixes from TAFB and SAB. The various satellite intensity estimates range from 77 to 85 kt, so the initial wind speed of 80 kt is maintained for this advisory. Juliette will be moving over gradually lower sea surface temperatures and into a more stable air mass but the vertical shear is expected to remain fairly low during the next couple days. This will likely result in a somewhat slower rate of weakening than is typical for east Pacific hurricanes moving over cool SSTs. Later in the period, southwesterly shear is expected to increase which should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity foreast is closest to the SHIPS intensity model. The initial motion estimate is 305/8 kt. A general northwestward motion around the southwestern portion of the mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States should continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest, and then the west, is expected over the next couple of days as Juliette gradually weakens and is steered by the easterly low- to mid-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope but is a little faster than the previous advisory to be closer to the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 20.6N 119.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 21.5N 121.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 23.6N 127.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 23.6N 131.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 23.2N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1200Z 23.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051126
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 5 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 08:54:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 09:38:50 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050849 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Juliette's cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours. If anything, the spiral bands appear to have improved a bit in the western portion of the cyclone. However, subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have not increased, and the initial intensity is held at 80 kt for this advisory. During the next 12 hours or so, the cyclone is expected to traverse decreasing SSTs and move into a more dry, stable air mass, and encounter increasing southwesterly shear. These increasingly inhibiting environmental factors should cause the cyclone to gradually weaken further, and degenerate into a remnant low in about 4 days, as the large-scale models indicate. The NHC forecast is just an update of the previous one, and follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN multi-model intensity guidance. The initial motion is a little to the right of the last advisory package, and is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/8 kt. A turn back to the west-northwest within the steering flow produced by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should occur during the next 24 hours. After that, Juliette should continue moving in this general direction, with some increase in forward speed, through the 48 hour period. Afterward, a westward motion should begin as Juliette degenerates into a vertically shallow depression, and ultimately, a remnant low, and becomes steered by the low-level easterly flow. The official forecast is a little to the right of the previous advisory and lies between the HCCA and TVCE consensus models, and is nudged a bit toward the GEFS ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 20.2N 119.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 21.0N 120.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 23.6N 129.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 23.2N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0600Z 22.8N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 050848 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 50 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 120W 64 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 120W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 25N 125W 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 12(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 3(20) X(20) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 050848 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 119.1W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 119.1W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 118.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 120.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.6N 129.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 23.2N 132.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 22.8N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 119.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 050848 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 ...JULIETTE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO RESUME TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 119.1W ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 119.1 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). The hurricane is expected to move to the west-northwest at a slightly faster forward speed on Friday and should continue this motion through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to resume today and further weakening is expected during the next several days. Juliette should weaken to a tropical storm on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts