National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2019 14:57:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2019 15:24:41 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 582 WTPZ43 KNHC 121452 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 An overnight scatterometer pass depicted an elongated circulation associated with this disturbance. Recent satellite imagery suggest the system has likely become better organized since the scatterometer, as can be seen in better defined curved banding features. Thus all indications are that a tropical depression has developed, with an initial intensity estimate of 30 kt derived from TAFB/SAB fixes. The depression has an initial motion off to the west-northwest around 11 kt. There is good agreement on the track over the next couple of days, with the system continuing a west to west-northwest movement to the south of a mid-level ridge situated over Mexico into the eastern Pacific. A bit more uncertainty develops by early next week with regards to how the system potentially interacts with a weakness in the ridge. While the track is of less confidence by this time, what does appear more certain is that the system should move more slowly. The NHC forecast track generally stays close to the model consensus. Tropical Depression Thirteen is expected to remain within a favorable environment for intensification over the next several days, with minimal shear and SSTs between 27-29 deg C. Model guidance is in good agreement that the system should become a tropical storm within a day, and a hurricane over the weekend. There is some chance we see a more rapid intensification of the cyclone during the next few days, with respectable rapid intensification probabilities noted in the SHIPS guidance. For now, since it is unknown how much of an inner core will develop, the forecast will be a bit more conservative, but above the model consensus intensity. Some weakening is expected by early next week as the system moves over cooler waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 15.9N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 16.3N 112.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 16.5N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 16.7N 116.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 17.0N 118.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 17.9N 122.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 18.8N 124.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 121451 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 115W 34 1 8( 9) 9(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 16(29) 3(32) X(32) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 21(27) 3(30) X(30) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 2(16) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 33(41) 8(49) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) $$ FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 121451 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 111.1W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen-E was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 111.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and is expected to continue to move to the west or west-northwest at a slower speed over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, with the system expected to become a hurricane this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 the center of Thirteen-E was located near 15.9, -111.1 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 121450 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.1W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.1W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 110.6W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.3N 112.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.5N 114.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.7N 116.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.0N 118.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 122.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 18.8N 124.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 111.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121153
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 12 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated and better
organized this morning around an area of low pressure located about
500 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, and a tropical depression appears to be forming. If this
trend continues, advisories will be initiated later this morning or
afternoon while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
For additional information on this system, please refer to High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

A tropical wave located about 1500 miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of
this disturbance is possible during the next few days while the
system moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of
Central America over the weekend. Development of this system is
possible early next week while it moves westward well south of the
southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Latto

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 120551
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 11 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the circulation
associated with an area of low pressure located about 550 miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula remains
broad and somewhat elongated. However, the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better organized, and
the system is expected to become a tropical depression on Thursday
while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. For additional
information on this system, please refer to High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A tropical wave located about 1500 miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of
this disturbance is possible during the next few days while the
system moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of
Central America over the weekend. Development of this system is
possible early next week while it moves westward well south of the
southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 112332
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 11 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Recent visible
imagery and satellite-derived wind data indicate that this system
has a broad closed surface circulation, but the associated showers
and thunderstorms are somewhat limited and disorganized. However,
any increase in thunderstorm activity will result in the formation
of a tropical depression, and this will likely happen tonight or
early Thursday while the low moves westward to west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered about 1400 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
are associated with a tropical wave. Some slow development of this
disturbance is possible during the next few days while the system
moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of
Central America over the weekend. Some development is possible
thereafter while the system moves westward through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111749
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 11 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located about 350 miles southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico, continues to become better defined. Environmental
conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form in the next 24 hours as the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered about 1400 miles to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
are associated with a tropical wave. Some slow development is
possible during the next few days while the system moves slowly
westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of
Cental America over the weekend. Thereafter, some development is
possible into early next week while the system moves westward at
about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Burke/Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111130
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 11 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is gradually becoming better
defined. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely
to form within the next couple of days while the low moves westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form more than 1000 miles to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula
during the next couple of days. Some additional development is
possible while the system moves slowly westward through the
weekend and early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 110503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 10 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, is gradually becoming better defined.
Associated thunderstorm activity has continued to increase, and
environmental conditions are conducive for further development of
this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form within
the next couple of days while the low moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form more than 1000 miles to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula
during the next couple of days. Some additional development is
possible while the system moves slowly westward through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 102331
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 10 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms are beginning to show
signs of organization in association with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional
development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within the next couple of days while the low
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form more than 1000 miles to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula
during the next couple of days. Some additional development is
possible while the system moves slowly westward through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101715
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 10 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is
located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. This
disturbed weather is associated with a broad area of low pressure
that has become better defined over the past 24 hours. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form on Thursday or Friday while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form more than 1000 miles to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
by late this week. Some additional slow development is possible as
the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hamrick/Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101127
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 10 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is associated
with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form more than 1000 miles to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula
by late this week. Some additional slow development is possible as
the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 100514
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 9 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form more than 1000 miles to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula
by late this week. Some additional slow development is possible as
the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 092324
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 9 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form more than 1000 miles to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula
by late this week. Some additional slow development is possible as
the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091745
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 9 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico, continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Development of this system is anticipated, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days
while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form more than 1000 miles to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula
by late this week. Some additional slow development is possible as
the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven/Hagen

578
ABPZ20 KNHC 091108
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 9 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico, continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Development of this system is anticipated, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days
while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 090524
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 8 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, are associated
with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development over the next several days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle of
the week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown