National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130852 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Kiko's convective pattern has still not gotten any better organized. There's a small patch of convection near the estimated center, with another larger cluster much farther south. For the most part, however, the circulation consists of a broken low- and mid-level cloud deck with a few embedded showers. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.0/30 kt, while objective numbers are only slightly higher. The initial intensity is being held at 35 kt, but it's entirely possible that Kiko may not be producing tropical-storm-force winds at this time. The GOES-17 air mass product shows that Kiko is surrounded by some of the driest air over the entire tropical eastern Pacific, which could be contributing to the system's convective struggles. And going forward, it appears that the thermodynamic environment could be less than ideal for significant strengthening, with SHIPS model diagnostics showing environmental stability to be the biggest negative factor. That being said, vertical shear is expected to be less than 10 kt for at least the next 3 days, so strengthening is likely if the dry air can be mixed out of the circulation. The new NHC forecast continues to show Kiko reaching hurricane strength in about 48 hours, although the peak intensity has been tempered a bit based on the latest guidance. The official forecast is close to a blend of the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected Consensus aids. Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 295/9 kt, to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends along the U.S./Mexico border. This motion should continue for the next 3 days, and the track models are in good agreement on this solution. After day 3, there is a bifurcation of the models, with the GFS, HMON, COAMPS-TC, and Canadian turning Kiko northwestward or northward into a break in the ridge, and the ECMWF, UKMET, HWRF, and the consensus aids maintaining a west-northwestward or even westward heading on days 4 and 5. Due to this divergence, the updated forecast shows a slightly slower motion toward the end of the forecast period, but the track itself is very similar to the previous forecast, lying near the northern boundary of the southern camp of models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 16.8N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 17.1N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 17.5N 116.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 17.9N 118.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 18.4N 120.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 19.4N 123.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 20.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 21.0N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 130851 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 20 9(29) 3(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 15N 115W 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 32(46) 11(57) 1(58) X(58) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 22(48) 3(51) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 2(17) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 130851 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 113.5W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 113.5W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.1N 114.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.5N 116.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.9N 118.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.4N 120.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.4N 123.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 20.5N 125.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 127.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 113.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 130851 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019 ...KIKO MOVING THROUGH A DRY ENVIRONMENT AND NOT STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 113.5W ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 113.5 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kiko is expected to become a hurricane over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...KIKO MOVING THROUGH A DRY ENVIRONMENT AND NOT STRENGTHENING... As of 3:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 the center of Kiko was located near 16.8, -113.5 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 130540
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 12 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 1600 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula remain disorganized. Environmental conditions
do not appear particularly conducive for development of this system
while it meanders near its current location during the next couple
of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Another tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, is also producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, mainly to the west of the wave axis. Some slow
development is possible into next week while the system moves
generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of
Central America over the weekend. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression will likely form by the middle of next week while the
system moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Kiko are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. Forecast/Advisories on Kiko are
issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 02:40:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 03:31:17 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130240 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 A pair of recent microwave overpasses (AMSR-2 at 2055 UTC and SSMIS at 0020 UTC) revealed that Kiko has not become any better organized since this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity is somewhat limited near the center of the tropical cyclone, though this is likely related to diurnal variations in convection, and convection will probably increase again overnight. Subjective and objective intensity estimates range from 30 to 40 kt, so the intensity has been maintained at 35 kt, as a compromise of the various methods. Despite its short-term lack of organization, Kiko will likely strengthen during the next 2 or 3 days. It is located within an environment consisting of low shear, sufficient moisture, and warm SSTs. All of the intensity guidance calls for strengthening, and the only difference between the models is the rate at which Kiko will intensify. The NHC forecast has not been substantially changed and still calls for Kiko to become a hurricane over the weekend. It is also near the high side of the intensity model envelope, especially between 24 and 72 h. By 72 h, the cyclone should reach cooler waters and begin to encounter drier air. Weakening will likely begin around that time and continue into mid-week. Kiko's center appears to have jumped slightly to the north, or perhaps even re-formed, but a 12-h estimate yields an initial motion of 300/9 kt. The models remain in very good agreement that the tropical storm will move generally westward to west-northwestward throughout the forecast period, steered primarily by a mid-layer ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted northward, mainly due to the farther north initial position of Kiko, and closely follows the HCCA and TVCE aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 16.6N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 16.9N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 17.3N 115.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 17.9N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 18.4N 119.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 19.5N 122.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 20.5N 125.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 21.0N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 130239 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 7( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 25(56) 1(57) X(57) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 31(56) 4(60) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 1(21) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 130239 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 112.7W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 112.7W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 112.2W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.9N 114.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.3N 115.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.9N 117.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.4N 119.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 122.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 20.5N 125.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.0N 128.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 112.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 130239 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 ...KIKO POISED TO STRENGTHEN... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 112.7W ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 112.7 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is anticipated, and Kiko is forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...KIKO POISED TO STRENGTHEN... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 the center of Kiko was located near 16.6, -112.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 122353
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 12 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
named Tropical Storm Kiko, located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a
little more than 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula have decreased since this morning.
Some gradual development of this system is still possible during the
next couple of days while the wave moves slowly westward at 5 to 10
mph. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit the chance for
development by late this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Another tropical wave, located a few hundred miles southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce an area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is
possible through early next week as it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of
Central America over the weekend. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development and a tropical
depression could form early next week while the system moves
westward well south of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Kiko are issued under WMO header
WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Kiko are issued under WMO
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2019 20:46:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2019 21:31:24 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 122044 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 A recent scatterometer pass depicted a better defined circulation and wind speeds of 30-35 kt northwest of the center of the system. Based on this data and recent satellite imagery continuing to show increased curved banding features, we have decided to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Kiko with an intensity of 35 kt. The system is moving to the west-northwest around 10 kt. There is good agreement on the track over the next couple of days, with the system continuing a west to west-northwest movement to the south of a mid-level ridge situated over Mexico into the eastern Pacific. There is a small northward shift in most of the guidance and consensus solutions at longer range, and thus the forecast is adjusted in this direction, although it remains south of model consensus. The model trend has been to keep the system moving faster than our previous forecast, and thus the new forecast has been sped up to become more in line with current consensus solutions. Kiko is expected to remain within a favorable environment for intensification over the next several days, with minimal shear and SSTs between 27-29 deg C. The system is thus still on track to become a hurricane this weekend. There remains some chance we see a more rapid intensification of the cyclone during the next few days, with higher rapid intensification probabilities noted in the SHIPS guidance than 6h ago. For now, since it is still unknown how much of an inner core will develop, the forecast will be a bit conservative, but remains above the model consensus intensity. Some weakening is expected by early next week as the system moves over cooler waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 16.1N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 16.3N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 16.6N 115.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 17.1N 117.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 17.6N 119.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 18.5N 122.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 19.3N 125.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 20.0N 128.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 122043 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 7(17) 1(18) X(18) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 23(37) 2(39) X(39) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 34(51) 6(57) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 3(22) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 122043 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 2 National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM KIKO... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 112.2W ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 112.2 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and is expected to continue to move to the west or west-northwest at a slower speed over the next few days. Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, with the system expected to become a hurricane this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM KIKO... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 the center of Kiko was located near 16.1, -112.2 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 122043 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 112.2W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 112.2W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.3N 113.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.6N 115.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.1N 117.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.6N 119.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.5N 122.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 19.3N 125.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 20.0N 128.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 112.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 12 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, located several hundred miles south
of the southern tip of Baja California.

A tropical wave located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. As the tropical wave moves
slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph during the next couple of days, slow
development is possible, with upper-level winds becoming less
conducive for development thereafter.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Another tropical wave is located a few hundred miles southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico, producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next several days as it moves west-northwest at 5 to 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of
Central America over the weekend. Development of this system
is becoming increasingly likely, and a tropical depression could
form early next week while it moves westward well south of the
southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Thirteen-E are issued under WMO header
WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Thirteen-E are issued under WMO header
WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Chenard/Blake