National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 140241 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 5 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 120W 34 2 9(11) 17(28) 13(41) 4(45) X(45) 1(46) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 38(44) 10(54) 1(55) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) X(20) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 140241 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 ...KIKO FINALLY STARTS TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 116.3W ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 116.3 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-northwest or west motion at a similar forward speed is expected through early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kiko is expected to be at or near hurricane strength by the end of the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...KIKO FINALLY STARTS TO STRENGTHEN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 the center of Kiko was located near 17.1, -116.3 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 140240 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.3W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.3W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.4N 117.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.6N 118.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.5N 121.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.4N 124.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 20.2N 126.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 20.5N 128.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 116.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132345
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 1600 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
are associated with a tropical wave. Little to no development of
this system is anticipated while it moves slowly westward for the
next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A broad trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. Some gradual development
of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form
early next week while the system moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward well off the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of
Central America in a day or two. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while the
system moves west-northwestward, near or parallel to the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 20:44:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 21:31:22 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 132043 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Kiko has been battling some entrained dry air today, and convection is just now beginning to re-wrap around the center of circulation. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from SAB supports an initial advisory intensity of 35 kt. An upper trough to the west of Kiko may continue to force dry air into the cyclone's circulation in the near term. Despite this dry air, the cyclone is expected to remain over warm waters and in a low shear environment for the next couple of days, which should allow for some strengthening. By late this weekend, Kiko is expected to be near hurricane intensity. After 48 hours, Kiko is forecast to begin to move over cooler waters, and after 72 hours, westerly wind shear is expected to begin to impact the cyclone. These factors should cause Kiko to steadily weaken late in the forecast period. Kiko is moving westward, or 280/8 kt, to the south of a broad mid-level ridge. A general west to west-northwestward motion should continue for the next several days. There was a notable shift in the guidance this afternoon, suggesting that the cyclone will move with a little slower forward motion than previously indicated. The tightly clustered consensus guidance also made a slight shift to the west. The official forecast is a little slower and to the left than the previous one, but is on the right side of the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 17.0N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 17.2N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 17.9N 119.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 18.4N 121.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 19.4N 123.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 20.1N 126.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 20.9N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 132043 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 5 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 120W 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 19(41) 4(45) X(45) X(45) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 14(46) 2(48) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 132043 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 ...KIKO MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 115.2W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 115.2 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kiko is expected to be near hurricane strength late this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...KIKO MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 the center of Kiko was located near 17.0, -115.2 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 132042 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.2W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.2W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 114.8W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.2N 116.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.9N 119.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.4N 121.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.4N 123.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 20.1N 126.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 20.9N 128.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 115.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131744
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 1600 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
are associated with a tropical wave. Only some slight development is
expected over the next couple of days before environmental
conditions become unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Another tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, is also producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, mainly to the west of the wave axis. Some slow
development is possible into next week while the system moves
generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of
Central America over the weekend. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression will likely form by the middle of next week while the
system moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 14:58:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 15:31:21 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 131457 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Kiko's convective pattern is still poorly organized. There was only a burst of convection near the estimated center overnight, and a new one is in progress. The circulation still consists of a broken low- and mid-level cloud deck with widely scattered embedded convection. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.0/30 kt, while the objective estimate is near 40 kt. The initial intensity remains at 35 kt as a blend of the subjective and objective estimates. Kiko is surrounded by dry air which is probably contributing to the system's continued convective struggles. Going forward, a low shear and warm water environment with limited environmental instability looks to allow a gradual increase in intensity. The new NHC forecast shows Kiko just shy of hurricane strength in about 48 hours, which is in good agreement with the trend of the model consensus. Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends along the U.S./Mexico border. This motion should continue for the next 3 days, and the track models are in good agreement on this solution. After day 3, some bifurcation of the models remain, though there are more models supporting a west to northwest track than to the north. The only substantial change to the previous forecast is a slightly slower speed in Days 4 and 5, and the forecast will stay closer to the models that support a continued west-northwest track at long range. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 16.9N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 17.2N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 17.6N 117.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 18.5N 120.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 19.5N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 20.2N 126.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 21.0N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Bann/Jackson/Otto/Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 131457 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 15 4(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 18(21) 25(46) 7(53) X(53) X(53) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 18(44) 2(46) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) $$ FORECASTER BANN/JACKSON/OTTO/BLAKE

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 131457 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019 ...KIKO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 114.4W ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 114.4 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Kiko is expected to approach hurricane strength later this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Bann/Jackson/Otto/Blake

...KIKO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 the center of Kiko was located near 16.9, -114.4 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 131456 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 114.4W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 114.4W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 114.0W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.2N 115.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.6N 117.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.5N 120.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.5N 123.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 20.2N 126.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 21.0N 128.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 114.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BANN/JACKSON/OTTO/BLAKE

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131149
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 1600 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
are associated with a tropical wave. Only some slight development is
expected over the next couple of days before environmental
conditions become unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Another tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, is also producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, mainly to the west of the wave axis. Some slow
development is possible into next week while the system moves
generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of
Central America over the weekend. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression will likely form by the middle of next week while the
system moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Kiko are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. Forecast/Advisories on Kiko are
issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 09:00:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 09:31:23 GMT