National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...JULIETTE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO RESUME TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 5 the center of Juliette was located near 20.2, -119.1 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 050509
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 4 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 02:34:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 02:34:44 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 050233 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 96 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 20N 120W 50 38 7(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) 20N 120W 64 11 5(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 25N 120W 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 17(24) 5(29) 1(30) X(30) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) X(17) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 050232 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.5W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.5W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 118.1W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.7N 121.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.7N 128.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 23.2N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.7N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 118.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 050232 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 ...JULIETTE EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 118.5W ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 118.5 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). The hurricane is expected to move to the west-northwest at a slightly faster forward speed during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days, and Juliette is predicted to weaken to a tropical storm Thursday night or early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...JULIETTE EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 4 the center of Juliette was located near 19.8, -118.5 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 042319
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 4 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 20:39:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 20:39:41 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 042038 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 Juliette continues to exhibit a large, ragged eye in both visible and infrared satellite imagery, but there are some breaks in the convective banding. Warming of the cloud tops over the southeastern portion of the circulation has also been observed. Recent microwave data show that the low-level eye remains fairly well defined, and that the center was located a little south of the previous estimates. The initial intensity remains 85 kt, which is a blend of the various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates. Although the vertical shear is forecast to remain quite low during the next several days, the hurricane will be moving over decreasing SSTs and into less favorable thermodynamic conditions. This should result in gradual weakening during the next several days, and Juliette is now forecast to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward or 295/6 kt. A mid-level ridge extending from the southwestern United States over the eastern Pacific should continue to steer Juliette west- northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, the cyclone is predicted to turn westward as it weakens and is steered by the easterly trade wind flow. The farther south initial position required a slight southward adjustment of the early portion of the track forecast, but the latter portion remains similar to the previous official forecast. The track guidance is tightly clustered and the NHC forecast is near middle of the envelope. The wind radii were adjusted slightly based on recent scatterometer data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 19.4N 117.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 20.0N 118.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 21.1N 120.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 23.6N 128.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 23.2N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 22.8N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 042038 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 78 19(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 20N 120W 50 7 40(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) 20N 120W 64 1 17(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 25N 120W 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 11(25) 1(26) X(26) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 042038 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 ...JULIETTE HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 117.8W ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 117.8 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). The hurricane is expected to move west-northwest at a slightly faster forward speed during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days and Juliette is predicted to weaken to a tropical storm Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...JULIETTE HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 4 the center of Juliette was located near 19.4, -117.8 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 042037 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 117.8W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 117.8W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 118.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 120.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.6N 128.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 23.2N 131.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 22.8N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 117.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041710
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 4 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The National
Hurricane Center also initiated advisories on Tropical Depression
Twelve-E this morning. The system has already moved into the
central Pacific basin and future advisories will be issued
by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
The first Public Advisory on Tropical Depression Twelve-E was
issued under WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCPEP2. Future Public Advisories on the depression will be
issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 am
HST under WMO header WTPA33 PHFO, and AWIPS header HFOTCPCP3.

The first Forecast/Advisory on Tropical Depression Twelve-E
was issued under WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP2. Future Forecast/Advisories on the depression will be
issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 am
HST under WMO header WTPA23 PHFO, and AWIPS header HFOTCMCP3.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 041703 CCA TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122019 500 AM HST Wed Sep 04 2019 Corrected WMO and AWIPS headers for future advisories from CPHC. ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS AND MOVES IMMEDIATELY INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 140.5W ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 140.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general westward motion at a similar or slightly slower forward speed is anticipated for the next two to three days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast and the system could become a tropical storm on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 AM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP3, WMO header WTPA33 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS AND MOVES IMMEDIATELY INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... As of 5:00 AM HST Wed Sep 4 the center of Twelve-E was located near 13.2, -140.5 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 041701 CCA TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122019 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 CORRECTED WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS FOR FUTURE ADVISORIES FROM CPHC. THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 140.5W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 140.5W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 140.0W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 12.8N 141.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 12.6N 143.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 12.6N 144.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.6N 145.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 13.2N 148.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 14.5N 154.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 16.0N 161.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 140.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP3...WMO HEADER WTPA23 PHFO. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 041448 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 Juliette continues to look somewhat ragged in conventional infrared satellite imagery this morning. A warm spot, which appears to be an eye, has been showing up intermittently during the past several hours. A 0914Z AMSR microwave pass indicated the eyewall was open in the south quadrant, so all indications are that additional weakening has taken place. The latest subjective and objective T-numbers provided by the satellite fix agencies also suggest weakening. Based on this input, the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt for this advisory. The initial motion for this advisory is west-northwestward, or 295/5 kt. Juliette is being steered by the circulation around a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge extending over the northeastern Pacific from the southwestern United States. This feature is expected to steer Juliette west-northwestward at a slightly faster forward motion during the next few days. Toward the end of the forecast period, a westward motion is forecast as Juliette weakens, and likely loses most of its deep convection. The weakening system will be steered by the low-level easterly flow. The latest track forecast has been shifted slightly to the right of the previous forecast package. This more closely follows the latest trusted guidance, especially the most recent NOAA HFIP HCCA and the TVCE corrected variable consensus model. Cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures, reduced ocean heat content, an intruding dry, stable, surrounding environment, and increasing southwesterly shear should cause steady weakening of the cyclone during the next 5 days. The latest intensity forecast continues to show a slightly faster weakening trend compared with the previous advisory package. Note that much of the guidance suggests the weakening trend may be even faster than the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 19.5N 117.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 20.1N 118.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 20.9N 119.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 21.8N 121.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 22.7N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 23.4N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 23.0N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 23.0N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Houston

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 14:44:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 14:44:33 GMT