National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240234 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 115.5W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 150SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 115.5W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 115.3W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.6N 116.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 120SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.3N 116.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.1N 117.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.6N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.6N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 115.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240234 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 ...IVO WEAKENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 115.5W ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 115.5 West. Ivo is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast and Ivo is expected to weaken to a tropical depression Saturday night and then degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...IVO WEAKENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD COOLER WATERS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 the center of Ivo was located near 20.5, -115.5 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232340
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A surface trough located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions could become a little more
conducive for some development in a few days as the system moves
northwestward. Future information on this disturbance can be found
in Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form just offshore of the
west-central Mexico coast near the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula by the middle of next week. Some development of
this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center can be found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP, and WMO header
ACPN50 PHFO. It can also be found on the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 20:40:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 21:31:13 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 232039 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The satellite appearance of Ivo has changed little today, with northeasterly shear confining the deep convection to the southwestern semicircle of the cyclone's circulation. Although recent ASCAT data suggests that the peak winds may have decreased, the initial intensity is conservatively maintained at 55 kt, based on the earlier wind report from Clarion Island. Ivo's initial motion is 335/09 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for at least the next 48 hours as the cyclone is steered around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. Once the cyclone weakens and becomes a shallow system in a couple of days, the forward motion should decrease and a turn to the northeast should occur, as the circulation becomes steered by the low level flow. The official forecast track is very close to the previous one and is near the various consensus model solutions. Although guidance suggests the wind shear will decrease over Ivo starting in about 12 hours, the cyclone is beginning to move over progressively cooler waters. This should cause the cyclone to gradually weaken over the next couple of days. By Sunday afternoon, Ivo will be over SSTs of about 22 C and in a more stable airmass. This should cause the cyclone to become devoid of deep convection and degenerate into a remnant low around that time. The latest forecast is an update of the previous one and in agreement with the corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 19.7N 115.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 20.9N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 22.4N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 24.1N 117.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 25.8N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 28.7N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Brown

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 232038 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 50 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 901 WTPZ25 KNHC 232038 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 115.3W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 150SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 115.3W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 115.1W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.9N 115.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 120SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.4N 116.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 80SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.1N 117.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.8N 118.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.7N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 115.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/BROWN

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 900 WTPZ35 KNHC 232038 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 ...IVO EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 115.3W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 115.3 West. Ivo is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast and Ivo is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday and then degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Brown

...IVO EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 the center of Ivo was located near 19.7, -115.3 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231718
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located a few hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A surface trough located about 1100 miles east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions could become a little more
conducive for some development in the central Pacific basin well to
the east of the Hawaiian Islands in a few days as the system
moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is likely to form early next week just
offshore of the west-central Mexico coast near the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. Some slow development of this system
is possible thereafter as it moves west to west-northwest at around
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Blake

Issued at 900 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 231605 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Special Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 An observation at 1430 UTC from Clarion Island, Mexico, indicated sustained winds of 53 kt and a wind gust to 66 kt on that island. Based on this data, a special advisory is being issued with the initial intensity increased to 55 kt. There has been a slight upward adjustment of the forecast intensity through 24 hours to account for the initial wind speed. However, the remainder of the forecast reasoning remains unchanged, and no changes were made to the track for this advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1600Z 18.9N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 20.0N 115.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 21.6N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 23.1N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 24.6N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 27.6N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 16:04:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 16:04:33 GMT

Issued at 1600 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 231603 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1600 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 AT 1600Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 20N 115W 34 85 3(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 20N 115W 50 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/BLAKE

Issued at 900 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 231602 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Special Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 ...REPORTS FROM CLARION ISLAND INDICATE IVO STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM PDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 115.0W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM PDT (1600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 115.0 West. Ivo is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of days and Ivo is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Saturday night, and then degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. A Mexican automated station at Clarion Island recently reported sustained winds of 62 mph (99 km/h) and a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Blake

...REPORTS FROM CLARION ISLAND INDICATE IVO STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT... As of 9:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 the center of Ivo was located near 18.9, -115.0 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1600 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 231602 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1600 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 115.0W AT 23/1600Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 110SE 120SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 115.0W AT 23/1600Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.8W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.0N 115.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.6N 116.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.1N 117.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 24.6N 117.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.6N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/BLAKE

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 14:37:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 14:37:06 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 231434 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Ivo has been passing over the island of Clarion Mexico over the past few hours, with an notable wind shift occuring there at around 1030 UTC as the center moved north of the island. The latest observation from Clarion at 1245 UTC measured sustained winds of 40 kt with gusts to 46 kt. An earlier scatterometer pass showed that 50 kt winds are occurring in the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone. As the satellite appearance of the cyclone has not degraded since that time, the initial intensity of Ivo remains at 50 kt for this advisory. Ivo is moving NNW or 330/9 kt. This general motion is expected to continue through the next 48 hours as the cyclone is steered around a mid level ridge over northern Mexico. A slight decrease in forward speed is expected beyond 48 hours as Ivo weakens and becomes a shallow system. All forecast models agree with this scenario, and the official forecast is near the corrected consensus HCCA. Northeasterly shear continues to impact the storm which is resulting the convection being confined to the southwestern semicircle. The SHIPS guidance indicates this shear should abate over the next 12-24 hours. However, by that time Ivo will be moving over marginal water temperatures and into a slightly drier environment which should cause the system to slowly weaken. In about 24 hours the cyclone will pass over the 26 C isotherm, and by 48 hours it will be over waters of about 22 C and in a stable airmass. This should cause the cyclone to lose its deep convection and become a remnant low by 72 hours. The official forecast is similar to the previous one, and close to the solution of the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 18.8N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 20.0N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 21.6N 116.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 23.1N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 24.6N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 27.6N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 352 FOPZ15 KNHC 231432 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1500 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 115W 34 79 3(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 20N 115W 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN