National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...IVO PASSING OVER CLARION ISLAND MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 the center of Ivo was located near 18.8, -115.0 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 231432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1500 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.0W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 110SE 120SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.0W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.8W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.0N 115.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.6N 116.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.1N 117.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 24.6N 117.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.6N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A surface trough located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Although this disturbance is not currently showing any signs of
development, environmental conditions could become a little more
conducive for some development in the central Pacific basin well to
the east of the Hawaiian Islands in a few days as the system moves
slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 08:44:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 09:31:08 GMT

Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230842 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Unexpectedly, stronger than anticipated northeasterly shear affected Ivo during the past 12 hours or so, and the low-level center became detached from the main area of deep convection. The center can be clearly seen on microwave and conventional imagery, and it is located very near Clarion Island, Mexico. An automatic Mexican Navy weather station at that location reported that the surface pressure has been falling and has measured gusts to 39 kt. This information is very valuable to diagnose the structure of the cyclone. Despite the deterioration of the cloud pattern, a recent ASCAT pass measured a peak wind of 50 kt associated with Ivo, but this value was confined to a small area in the southeast quadrant. On this basis, the initial intensity has been adjusted downward to 50 kt, which is also a value close to the Dvorak estimates, or perhaps a tad higher. The cyclone is expected to be over warm waters for about a day or so, and given its vigorous circulation, Ivo could maintain the same intensity for the next 12 hours. After that time, Ivo should begin to weaken over cooler waters. Unanimously, all the models weaken the cyclone and so does the NHC forecast, and by 72 hours or sooner, Ivo should have degenerated into a remnant low. The center is moving toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 9 kt. The cyclone managed to find a weakness in the ridge, and since the steering pattern is not expected to change, this general motion is anticipated to continue until dissipation in 4 days. The NHC forecast is on the left edge of the guidance envelope and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 17.9N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 19.0N 115.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 20.5N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 22.0N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 24.0N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 27.5N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 230841 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 19 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ISLA CLARION 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 115W 34 26 41(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 20N 115W 50 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 281 WTPZ35 KNHC 230841 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 ...A WEAKER IVO APPROACHING CLARION ISLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 114.5W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 114.5 West. Ivo is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 2 to 3 days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in intensity is expected today, but Ivo should begin to weaken on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A Mexican Navy automatic station at Clarion Island recently reported a wind to 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...A WEAKER IVO APPROACHING CLARION ISLAND MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 the center of Ivo was located near 17.9, -114.5 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 135 WTPZ25 KNHC 230837 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.5W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 100SE 80SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.5W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 114.3W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 115.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 100SE 80SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.5N 116.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 116.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.0N 117.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 114.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 22 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A surface trough located about 1100 miles east-southeast of the
Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce disorganized cloudiness
and showers. Although this disturbance is not showing any signs of
development at this time, environmental conditions could become
a little more conducive for some development in the central Pacific
well to the east of the Hawaiian Islands in a few days. The system
is forecast to move slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 02:33:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 03:31:10 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 885 WTPZ45 KNHC 230232 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Visible satellite pictures show that the center of Ivo has become exposed to the northeast of the deep convection due to moderate to strong northeasterly shear. Although the latest Dvorak T-numbers have decreased slightly, the initial intensity is being held at 55 kt which is in agreement with earlier ASCAT data and recent UW/CIMSS SATCON estimates. Overnight scatterometer data should provide a better assessment of Ivo's intensity. Guidance suggests that the shear is likely to remain moderate to strong during the next 12-18 hours while Ivo traverses warm waters. The shear could relax Friday night, but by that time the cyclone is forecast to move over decreasing SSTs and into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. As a result, little overall change in strength is anticipated during the next day or so. After that time, Ivo should weaken as it moves over SSTs below 26C and into a stable air mass. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low within 72 hours, and dissipate by day 5. Ivo has turned sharply today, with the initial motion now north-northwestward or 335/8 kt. The storm is forecast to move northwestward to north-northwestward around the western side of a mid-level ridge. The latest track envelope has shifted eastward, partially due to the sharper turn and the more eastward initial position. This has resulted in a slightly eastward shift in the official forecast, but it remains close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 16.9N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 19.5N 115.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 21.2N 116.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 23.0N 117.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 26.6N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0000Z 28.5N 120.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 230232 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0300 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 74 15(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) ISLA CLARION 50 22 22(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) ISLA CLARION 64 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 6 44(50) 8(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) 20N 115W 50 X 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 115W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 14(17) 2(19) X(19) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

...IVO TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 the center of Ivo was located near 16.9, -114.1 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222325
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 22 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A surface trough located a little less than 1200 miles
east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce
disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions could
become conducive for some development, in a few days, in the central
Pacific basin, well to the east of Hawaii, while the system is
moving slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 20:33:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 21:31:08 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 222032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Visible satellite images show a bit of a surprise with Ivo this afternoon. The system is not as well organized as earlier microwave data displayed, with the center almost partially exposed on the northeastern side of the central dense overcast. The initial wind speed is held at 55 kt, which is in line with TAFB/SAB estimates and 50-55 kt ASCAT-C winds. With shear still forecast to increase overnight, only slight intensification of Ivo is anticipated. While Ivo could still become a hurricane, almost all of the guidance has backed off on this cycle. Weakening should begin over the weekend when the storm moves over progressive cooler waters. Convection is likely to dissipate in about 72 hours, and post-tropical status of Ivo is forecast at that time. Overall the new forecast is reduced about 5 kt from the previous one, near or slightly above the model consensus. Ivo has turned west-northwestward, or 295/8 kt. The storm should turn to the northwest tomorrow and north-northwest on Saturday due to steering from a mid-level ridge over Mexico. Model guidance is coming into better agreement on this course, with fairly small variations. Overall, the small eastward trend seen in the guidance continues, and the new NHC prediction is shifted a little eastward at long range. Still, none of the guidance still show a direct tropical cyclone threat to Mexico at this time. It is worth noting that the current size of Ivo has been greatly increased due to the ASCAT-C data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 16.1N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 17.0N 114.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 18.5N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 20.2N 116.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 25.9N 119.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 26/1800Z 28.5N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 222032 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 19 48(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) ISLA CLARION 50 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 9 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 115W 34 3 18(21) 15(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 20N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 2(31) X(31) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 222032 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 ...IVO TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 114.1W ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 114.1 West. Ivo is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and Ivo is forecast to turn to the northwest on Friday and move north-northwestward over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Friday with weakening likely to begin on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...IVO TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 the center of Ivo was located near 16.1, -114.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.