National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 222031 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 114.1W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 114.1W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 113.8W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.0N 114.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.2N 116.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.9N 119.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 28.5N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 114.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221724
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 22 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A surface trough located about 1200 miles east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Environmental conditions could become conducive for some
development in a few days in the central Pacific basin, well to the
east of Hawaii, while the system is moving slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 377 WTPZ45 KNHC 221440 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 The cyclone continues to gradually improve in organization. Microwave data show that there is a small eye trying to form beneath Ivo's small central dense overcast, and satellite intensity estimates are rising. Consequently, the initial wind speed is set to 55 kt, which matches the TAFB/SAB fixes. Further strengthening is anticipated in the short term since Ivo has a developing inner core and is over very warm waters with moderate shear. The models are pretty consistent about showing an increase in shear by tomorrow while the cyclone turns to the northwest. Thus the intensity forecast is leveled off at that time, then a slow weakening is shown beyond 36 h as Ivo begins its inevitable decline over cooler eastern Pacific waters and in more stable air. Remnant low status is anticipated just after 72 h since Ivo will be over 23C or cooler waters by then. Little change was made to the previous intensity forecast except for a small rise at 12 h to account for the recent initial intensity increase. Similar to many eastern Pacific cyclones this year, the center has re-formed a bit to the south in the central dense overcast, yielding an initial motion of 270/10. The storm should turn northwestward tomorrow due to an upper-level trough dropping over the eastern Pacific south of California, which helps erode a mid-level ridge over mainland Mexico. The ridge stays weak through the weekend, causing Ivo to move north-northwestward until dissipation. The eastward model trend at long range continues, so the NHC forecast is adjusted in that direction. It should be noted that none of the guidance still show a direct threat to Mexico at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 15.7N 113.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 16.4N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 17.9N 116.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 19.5N 116.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 21.2N 117.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 25.0N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 28.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 226 FOPZ15 KNHC 221440 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 1 25(26) 5(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) ISLA CLARION 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 3 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 7(33) X(33) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 765 WTPZ35 KNHC 221439 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 ...IVO STRENGTHENING WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 113.6W ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 113.6 West. Ivo is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn to the northwest is expected by tomorrow. Ivo is anticipated to move generally north-northwestward this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Ivo could become a hurricane later tonight or tomorrow, but should begin to weaken on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...IVO STRENGTHENING WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 the center of Ivo was located near 15.7, -113.6 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 221439 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 113.6W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 113.6W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 113.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.4N 114.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.9N 116.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.5N 116.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.2N 117.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.0N 119.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 28.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 113.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 14:40:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 15:31:19 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221148
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 22 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the far southwestern
eastern Pacific about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii are associated with a surface trough. Environmental
conditions could become marginally conducive for development in a
few days when the system is in the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Ivo are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Ivo are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 08:43:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 09:31:18 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 220842 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X 29(29) 22(51) 1(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) ISLA CLARION 50 X 7( 7) 10(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA CLARION 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 28(29) 8(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 8(25) X(25) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 30N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 220842 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 The cloud pattern associated with Ivo is a little better organized and consists of a circular mass of convection surrounded by a well- defined cyclonically curved band. The center appears to be more embedded under the canopy than several hours ago. Despite the improvement, recent scatterometer data show that the winds have not increased yet and are between 40 and 45 kt. Because the cloud pattern has improved since then, the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt, which is the consensus among TAFB, SAB and SATCON estimates. The environment during the next 36 hours should favor Ivo to strengthen a little more and reach hurricane status. Thereafter, Ivo should begin to encounter dry air and cooler waters, resulting in gradual weakening. By day 4, Ivo should be over 20 degree Celsius waters and become a remnant low void of deep convection. The intensity forecast follows very closely the HCCA solution and is a little higher than the consensus. Satellite data suggest that the center of Ivo has either moved a little bit south of due west or it has reformed closer to the convection with a decrease in forward speed. However, an average of the past 6 to 12 hours gives a motion toward the west or 270 degrees at 11 kt. Ivo should be reaching the southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge in 12 to 24 hours, and this flow pattern should steer the cyclone more toward the west-northwest and northwest. This general motion should then continue until the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is a little to the right of the previous one, but it is still on the western edge of the guidance envelope and in between the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model average TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 15.8N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 16.2N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 17.4N 115.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 20.7N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 24.6N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 28.0N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z 30.5N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 220841 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 ...IVO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 112.5W ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 112.5 West. Ivo has decreased its forward speed and is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today or Friday with a northwestward motion continuing thereafter. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Ivo is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday, but weakening should then begin after that time. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...IVO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 3:00 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 the center of Ivo was located near 15.8, -112.5 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 220841 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 112.5W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 112.5W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 112.0W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.2N 114.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.4N 115.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.7N 117.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.6N 119.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 28.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 30.5N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 112.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 06:42:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 06:42:11 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Ivo are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Ivo are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Avila

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 02:35:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 03:31:16 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 049 WTPZ45 KNHC 220235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 An earlier GMI microwave overpass that arrived after the release of the previous advisory revealed a tightly coiled band of convection that wrapped around the southern and southeastern portion of the circulation. More recent microwave imagery, however, shows that the system is being impacted by northeasterly shear with the center now located near the northeast portion of the primary convective mass. Objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates unanimously supported an intensity of 45 kt, and the initial intensity has been increased accordingly. Ivo is expected to remain over warm SSTs and in a moist environment during the next 36 h or so. These conditions favor strengthening however the aforementioned moderate northeasterly shear is likely to temper the rate of intensification during that time. The NHC forecast calls for steady strengthening and again brings Ivo to hurricane status within 36 h. After that time, cooler waters and a drier and more stable air mass should cause weakening, and Ivo is forecast to become post-tropical by day 4. The official intensity forecast shows a peak a little higher than most of the guidance but otherwise is close to the model consensus. Ivo is moving west-northwestward or 285/16 kt. The storm should slow down later tonight or Thursday as it begins to move around the southwestern portion of a subtropical ridge. In about 24 hours, a weakness is expected to develop in the ridge which is expected to cause Ivo to turn northwestward. A general northwestward motion should then continue through the remainder of the forecast period. An additional reduction in forward speed is likely late in the forecast period as the system weakens and becomes vertically shallow. The track guidance as trended toward a slower motion after 72 hours, and the updated NHC track has been adjusted a little southward. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 16.1N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 16.5N 113.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 17.6N 114.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 18.8N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 20.0N 116.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 23.2N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 26.4N 120.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 27/0000Z 28.8N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 654 WTPZ25 KNHC 220235 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 111.3W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 111.3W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.5N 113.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.6N 114.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.8N 116.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.0N 116.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.2N 118.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 26.4N 120.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 28.8N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 111.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN