National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162354
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
more than 1200 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Gradual development of this disturbance is
possible during the next few days while it moves slowly westward
across the tropical eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161734
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
south of the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America and southeastern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Slow development of this disturbance is
possible during the next couple of days while it moves
slowly westward across the tropical eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161141
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure has formed a couple of hundred miles
south of the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala and is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the low, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Slow development of this disturbance is
possible during the next couple of days while it moves
slowly westward across the tropical eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 160526 CCA
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Corrected order of paragraphs for graphical product.

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disturbed weather has formed about 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Although the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of
organization, the system does not appear to have a well-defined
surface center. Slow development of this disturbance is possible
during the next couple of days while it moves westward across the
tropical eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1700 miles west of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
intermittent showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
not conducive for development and tropical cyclone formation is not
anticipated. The low is forecast to move generally westward at 10 to
15 mph for the new couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...near 0 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coasts of
El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico in a day or two.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the low thereafter and a tropical depression could
form by early next week while the system moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward. Regardless of development, moisture associated
with the system is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible
flash flooding across portions of Central America during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152339
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1600 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a small area of disorganized showers. Environmental
conditions do not appear conducive for significant development of
this system while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coasts of
El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico over the weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the low while it moves slowly westward early next
week. Regardless of development, moisture associated with this
system is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible
flash flooding across portions of Central America through early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located more than 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a small area of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions do not appear conducive for significant
development of this system while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coasts of
El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico over the weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the low while it moves slowly westward early
next week. Regardless of development, moisture associated with
this system is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible
flash flooding across portions of Central America through early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151130
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing limited shower activity. Environmental conditions do
not appear conducive for significant development of this system
while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coasts of
El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico over the weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the low while it moves slowly westward early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 150500
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 14 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure is producing limited shower
activity. Only slight development of this disturbance, if any, is
expected during the next couple of days while it moves westward at
10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for further development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south or southeast of
the southeastern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
thereafter while the system moves generally westward through early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 142349
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 14 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A weak area of low pressure located about 1400 miles west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce limited showers and thunderstorms. Recent satellite-based
wind data indicates that the circulation of the system is elongated
and poorly defined. Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for development for the next couple of days and
a tropical depression could still form before the system reaches
cooler waters and upper-level winds become unfavorable over the
central Pacific. This disturbance is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south or southeast of
the southeastern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
the system early next week while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

699
ABPZ20 KNHC 141731
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The first few visible satellite images of the day indicate that the
the low pressure system located more than 1300 miles west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula does not have a
well-defined center, and the circulation remains elongated. In
addition, the low is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity at this time. Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for some development, and a tropical
depression could still form over the next few days before the
system reaches cooler waters and upper-level winds become
unfavorable. This disturbance is forecast to move west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south or
southeast of the southeastern coast of Mexico over the weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the system early next week while the system moves
generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141228
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated low pressure system located more than 1300 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form over the next few
days before the system reaches cooler waters and upper-level winds
become unfavorable. This disturbance is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south or
southeast of the southeastern coast of Mexico late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the system over the weekend while the system moves
generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141146
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated low pressure system located more than 1300 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form over the next few
days before the system reaches cooler waters and upper-level winds
become unfavorable. This disturbance is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south or
southeast of the southeastern coast of Mexico late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the system over the weekend while the system moves
generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

140
ABPZ20 KNHC 140517
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated low pressure system located more than 1200 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
some development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form later this week before upper-level winds become
unfavorable. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward
at around 10 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south or
southeast of the southeastern coast of Mexico late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the system over the weekend while the system moves
generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132336
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated trough of low pressure located about 1200 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form later this week before upper-level winds become
unfavorable. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south or
southeast of the southeastern coast of Mexico late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the system over the weekend while the system moves
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2019 19:25:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2019 19:25:26 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2019 18:29:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2019 18:29:56 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131730
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
Henriette, which has become a remnant low located a few hundred
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 1100 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are
associated with an elongated trough of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development during
the next few days, and a tropical depression could form later this
week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south or
southeast of the southeastern coast of Mexico late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the system over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 131433 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Henriette Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2019 The system has been devoid of deep convection for about 12 hours, and therefore, it has degenerated into a remnant low. The post-tropical cyclone is moving through an environment of dry, stable air and over cooler SSTs, which should cause the low to dissipate in a day or so. The motion is west-northwestward, or 285/10 kt. A low-level ridge to the north of the system should steer Henriette's remnants on a west-northwestward to westward heading until dissipation. The official track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus, TVCE. This is the last NHC advisory on Henriette. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 21.4N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 14/0000Z 21.8N 117.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 14/1200Z 22.0N 120.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 13 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 131432 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 1500 UTC TUE AUG 13 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 131432 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Henriette Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2019 ...HENRIETTE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 116.1W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Henriette was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 116.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a west-northwestward to westward motion is expected over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The cyclone is expected to dissipate tomorrow. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Pasch