National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 211449 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 107.3W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 107.3W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 106.5W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.9N 109.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.6N 112.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.0N 117.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 24.4N 118.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 27.6N 120.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 107.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211125
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite imagery and satellite-derived wind data indicate that a
tropical cyclone is developing several hundred miles south-southeast
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. If this trend
continues, then advisories will be initiated later this morning for
a tropical depression or tropical storm. This system could produce
locally heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of southern
Mexico during the next day or two as it moves west-northwestward.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

An area of disturbed weather is located over the western portion of
the eastern North Pacific. Significant development of this system
no longer appears likely as it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...0 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210528
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure
system located a couple of hundred miles south of the southern coast
of Mexico continue to show signs of becoming better organized.
Additional development is anticipated and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, parallel to and just offshore of
the coast of Mexico. This system could produce locally heavy
rainfall along portions of the coast of southern Mexico during the
next day or two. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of disturbed weather is located over the western portion of
the eastern North Pacific. Any development of this system will
likely be slow to occur while it moves generally westward for the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202334 CCA
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Corrected to add High Seas Forecast information

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure
system located a couple of hundred miles south of the southern
coast of Mexico are beginning to show some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or
so while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
parallel to and just offshore of the coast of Mexico. This system
could produce locally heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of
southern Mexico during the next day or two. Additional information
on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Another low pressure system located more than 900 miles west-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
producing limited shower and thunderstorms activity. Conditions have
become less conducive for development and the chance of this system
becoming a tropical cyclone is decreasing. The system is forecast
to move little during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202319
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure
system located a couple of hundred miles south of the southern
coast of Mexico are beginning to show some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or
so while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
parallel to and just offshore of the coast of Mexico. This system
could produce locally heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of
southern Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Another low pressure system located more than 900 miles west-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
producing limited shower and thunderstorms activity. Conditions have
become less conducive for development and the chance of this system
becoming a tropical cyclone is decreasing. The system is forecast
to move little during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of
cloudiness and thunderstorms. Although this system has not become
better organized since yesterday, environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the next day or so while the low moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, parallel to and just offshore of the
coast of Mexico. This system could produce heavy rainfall and flash
flooding over portions of southeastern Mexico during the next couple
of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Another low pressure system located more than 900 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.
Conditions have become less conducive for development, however a
tropical depression could still form within the next couple of days
while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201142
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of
cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next day or so while the low moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, parallel to and just offshore of the
coast of Mexico. This system could produce heavy rainfall and flash
flooding over portions of southeastern Mexico during the next couple
of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Another low pressure system located more than 900 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development by mid-week, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next few days while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200547
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Aug 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located about 200 miles south of the southern
coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of cloudiness of
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or so while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10
mph, parallel to and just offshore of the coast of Mexico. Moisture
associated with this disturbance could produce heavy rainfall and
possible flash flooding across portions of Guatemala and
southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Another low pressure system located more than 900 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by
mid-week, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192328
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Aug 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located less than 200 miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of
cloudiness of thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next day or so while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph, parallel to and just offshore of the coast of Mexico.
Moisture associated with this disturbance could produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Another low pressure system located more than 900 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive
for development by mid-week, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the next few days while the system moves westward
to west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles southeast of the southern coast
Mexico have become better organized during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or
two while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel
to the coast of Mexico. Moisture associated with this disturbance
could produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across
portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during the next couple
of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A low pressure system located a little over 900 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by
mid-week, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191149
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become conducive for development during the next
couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
mid-week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Moisture associated with
this disturbance could produce heavy rainfall and possible flash
flooding across portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A well-defined low pressure system located more 900 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190532
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
south of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. However, environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development during the next
couple of days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by
Tuesday or Wednesday while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Moisture associated with
this disturbance could produce heavy rainfall and possible flash
flooding across portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A well-defined low pressure system located more 900 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to gradually improve, and a tropical
depression could form during the next few days while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182334
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
south of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. However, environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development
during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is
expected to form by Tuesday or Wednesday while the low moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.
Moisture associated with this disturbance could produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A low pressure system located more 900 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large
area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
expected to gradually improve, and a tropical depression could form
during the next few days while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles south of the Mexico/Guatemala
border remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected
to become more conducive for development during the next couple of
days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by Tuesday or
Wednesday while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph
parallel to the coast of Mexico. Moisture associated with the low
is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding
across portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A tropical wave located about 900 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions continue to support slow development, and a tropical
depression could form later this week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another tropical wave located about 1300 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions
are not expected to be conducive for development while the system
moves slowly westward at about 10 mph during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181147
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of
Guatemala have changed little in organization since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression is expected to form by Tuesday or Wednesday while the low
moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of
Mexico. Moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce
heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A tropical wave located about 900 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions continue to support slow development, and this system has
the potential to become a tropical cyclone by the middle of the week
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Shower and thunderstorm activity near another tropical wave located
about 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has decreased since yesterday. Any
development of this system during the next couple of days is
expected to be slow to occur while it moves slowly westward at
about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180530
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing a limited area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms tonight. Environmental conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development by early next
week, and a tropical depression is expected to form by Tuesday while
the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the
coast of Mexico. Moisture associated with the low is forecast to
produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions
of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California has increased since yesterday. Environmental
conditions continue to support slow development, and this system
has the potential to become a tropical cyclone by the middle of next
week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Another tropical wave, located about 1300 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, is producing
cloudiness and showers. Some development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days while it moves slowly
westward across the southwestern portion of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172348
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become
more conducive for development by early next week, and a tropical
depression is expected to form on Monday or Tuesday while the low
moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of
Mexico. Moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce
heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A tropical wave located about 900 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Another tropical wave, located about 1300 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves
slowly westward across the southwestern portion of the eastern
Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. NOAA and the National Science Foundation are
currently conducting a research mission in this system, and the
data from the mission indicate that the circulation remains broad
and elongated, and surface pressures are relatively high. Still,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next
week while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel
to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, moisture
associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and
possible flash flooding across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala,
and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A tropical wave located about 850 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Another tropical wave located about 1300 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it
moves slowly westward at about 5 mph across the southwestern portion
of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171147
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
a tropical wave located about 850 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Another tropical wave located about 1300 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it
moves slowly westward at about 5 mph across the southwestern portion
of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

277
ABPZ20 KNHC 170522
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms centered about 1250 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves
slowly westward across the southwestern portion of the eastern
Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake