Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...TX/LA... Very active southern stream will continue into mid week with the primary core of stronger midlevel flow forecast to extend across northern Mexico before rotating across TX into the lower OH Valley. This flow regime will result in negligible height changes across south TX into LA, but deep southwesterly flow will encourage a slow northward advance of modified Gulf air into Coastal TX/LA. Lower 60s surface dew points have returned to coastal TX as the main surface boundary is now oriented from near LRD-north of VCT-IAH. This wind shift is expected to advance north across east TX as a weak surface low tracks into southeast OK Tuesday night. Even so, any appreciable airmass destabilization is expected to hold across coastal TX into western LA, due in part to substantial elevated convection from warm advection. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based buoyancy is possible where dew points are able to rise above 67F, albeit weak due to poor low-level lapse rates. With time midlevel lapse rates should steepen across south-central TX in response to the approaching trough. This should aid instability such that some robustness is possible with convection that evolves across this region. Several bouts of convection will be noted, modulated in part by the LLJ and warm advection. At this time it appears overall severe threat should remain too isolated to warrant a SLGT Risk. However, some threat for wind/hail does exist with some of this activity, and a brief tornado can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...TX/LA... Very active southern stream will continue into mid week with the primary core of stronger midlevel flow forecast to extend across northern Mexico before rotating across TX into the lower OH Valley. This flow regime will result in negligible height changes across south TX into LA, but deep southwesterly flow will encourage a slow northward advance of modified Gulf air into Coastal TX/LA. Lower 60s surface dew points have returned to coastal TX as the main surface boundary is now oriented from near LRD-north of VCT-IAH. This wind shift is expected to advance north across east TX as a weak surface low tracks into southeast OK Tuesday night. Even so, any appreciable airmass destabilization is expected to hold across coastal TX into western LA, due in part to substantial elevated convection from warm advection. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based buoyancy is possible where dew points are able to rise above 67F, albeit weak due to poor low-level lapse rates. With time midlevel lapse rates should steepen across south-central TX in response to the approaching trough. This should aid instability such that some robustness is possible with convection that evolves across this region. Several bouts of convection will be noted, modulated in part by the LLJ and warm advection. At this time it appears overall severe threat should remain too isolated to warrant a SLGT Risk. However, some threat for wind/hail does exist with some of this activity, and a brief tornado can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...TX/LA... Very active southern stream will continue into mid week with the primary core of stronger midlevel flow forecast to extend across northern Mexico before rotating across TX into the lower OH Valley. This flow regime will result in negligible height changes across south TX into LA, but deep southwesterly flow will encourage a slow northward advance of modified Gulf air into Coastal TX/LA. Lower 60s surface dew points have returned to coastal TX as the main surface boundary is now oriented from near LRD-north of VCT-IAH. This wind shift is expected to advance north across east TX as a weak surface low tracks into southeast OK Tuesday night. Even so, any appreciable airmass destabilization is expected to hold across coastal TX into western LA, due in part to substantial elevated convection from warm advection. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based buoyancy is possible where dew points are able to rise above 67F, albeit weak due to poor low-level lapse rates. With time midlevel lapse rates should steepen across south-central TX in response to the approaching trough. This should aid instability such that some robustness is possible with convection that evolves across this region. Several bouts of convection will be noted, modulated in part by the LLJ and warm advection. At this time it appears overall severe threat should remain too isolated to warrant a SLGT Risk. However, some threat for wind/hail does exist with some of this activity, and a brief tornado can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...01z Update... Several southern-stream short-wave troughs will influence convective potential from coastal CA into the lower MS Valley tonight. One weak short wave is ejecting across OK/east TX early this evening while a secondary disturbance is advancing across northern Mexico. Isolated thunderstorms have developed along the southern influence of the lead feature along the upper TX Coast where modified Gulf air mass has returned. Additional convection is now developing across northern Mexico, south of the Big Bend, within the left exit region of an approaching midlevel speed max. While the primary LLJ will shift into the lower OH Valley with the lead trough, southerly 850mb flow is expected to persist across TX tonight. Additional elevated convection is expected to develop in response to the northern Mexico feature as it approaches southwest TX later tonight. The boundary layer will likely remain a bit too cool along the TX Coast to warrant much potential for surface-based storms, thus the severe risk appears minimal. Upstream, isolated thunderstorms have developed across portions of CA, in a regime of steepening lapse rates ahead of a short wave trough. Convective threat will spread southeast tonight as the short wave digs into northwestern Mexico and the lower CO River Valley. ..Darrow.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...01z Update... Several southern-stream short-wave troughs will influence convective potential from coastal CA into the lower MS Valley tonight. One weak short wave is ejecting across OK/east TX early this evening while a secondary disturbance is advancing across northern Mexico. Isolated thunderstorms have developed along the southern influence of the lead feature along the upper TX Coast where modified Gulf air mass has returned. Additional convection is now developing across northern Mexico, south of the Big Bend, within the left exit region of an approaching midlevel speed max. While the primary LLJ will shift into the lower OH Valley with the lead trough, southerly 850mb flow is expected to persist across TX tonight. Additional elevated convection is expected to develop in response to the northern Mexico feature as it approaches southwest TX later tonight. The boundary layer will likely remain a bit too cool along the TX Coast to warrant much potential for surface-based storms, thus the severe risk appears minimal. Upstream, isolated thunderstorms have developed across portions of CA, in a regime of steepening lapse rates ahead of a short wave trough. Convective threat will spread southeast tonight as the short wave digs into northwestern Mexico and the lower CO River Valley. ..Darrow.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...01z Update... Several southern-stream short-wave troughs will influence convective potential from coastal CA into the lower MS Valley tonight. One weak short wave is ejecting across OK/east TX early this evening while a secondary disturbance is advancing across northern Mexico. Isolated thunderstorms have developed along the southern influence of the lead feature along the upper TX Coast where modified Gulf air mass has returned. Additional convection is now developing across northern Mexico, south of the Big Bend, within the left exit region of an approaching midlevel speed max. While the primary LLJ will shift into the lower OH Valley with the lead trough, southerly 850mb flow is expected to persist across TX tonight. Additional elevated convection is expected to develop in response to the northern Mexico feature as it approaches southwest TX later tonight. The boundary layer will likely remain a bit too cool along the TX Coast to warrant much potential for surface-based storms, thus the severe risk appears minimal. Upstream, isolated thunderstorms have developed across portions of CA, in a regime of steepening lapse rates ahead of a short wave trough. Convective threat will spread southeast tonight as the short wave digs into northwestern Mexico and the lower CO River Valley. ..Darrow.. 01/23/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 22 22:31:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 22 22:31:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Fire concerns will be limited for the extended forecast period. Fuels are wet across the CONUS and additional wetting rain is expected for much of the CONUS this week. The only dry regions will be the northern Rockies/northern Plains where extensive snowcover is present with below freezing temperatures. ..Bentley.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Fire concerns will be limited for the extended forecast period. Fuels are wet across the CONUS and additional wetting rain is expected for much of the CONUS this week. The only dry regions will be the northern Rockies/northern Plains where extensive snowcover is present with below freezing temperatures. ..Bentley.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Fire concerns will be limited for the extended forecast period. Fuels are wet across the CONUS and additional wetting rain is expected for much of the CONUS this week. The only dry regions will be the northern Rockies/northern Plains where extensive snowcover is present with below freezing temperatures. ..Bentley.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Fire concerns will be limited for the extended forecast period. Fuels are wet across the CONUS and additional wetting rain is expected for much of the CONUS this week. The only dry regions will be the northern Rockies/northern Plains where extensive snowcover is present with below freezing temperatures. ..Bentley.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area, but otherwise the previous outlook reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. A few stronger storms are possible this afternoon/evening near the upper TX coast, and perhaps late tonight near the Edwards Plateau region, but the severe threat still appears limited through the end of the period. ..Dean.. 01/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024/ ...South-central CONUS including coastal Texas... Surface high pressure and cold stable conditions will exist over the eastern half of the CONUS, but multiple low-amplitude mid-level disturbances and a prevalent warm conveyor over the south-central CONUS toward the Ozarks/Midwest will influence widespread showers across that same region with continued elevated thunderstorm potential especially across east/southeast Texas toward Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Weak surface-based destabilization should gradually occur near the upper Texas coast, beginning this afternoon and more so tonight. Within a favorable kinematic environment, a few stronger near-surface-based storms could occur as early as this afternoon across the upper Texas coast, but the overall severe thunderstorm potential is still expected to remain low through tonight. ...Western States... Showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of southwest Oregon and California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow, with steepening lapse rates. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area, but otherwise the previous outlook reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. A few stronger storms are possible this afternoon/evening near the upper TX coast, and perhaps late tonight near the Edwards Plateau region, but the severe threat still appears limited through the end of the period. ..Dean.. 01/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024/ ...South-central CONUS including coastal Texas... Surface high pressure and cold stable conditions will exist over the eastern half of the CONUS, but multiple low-amplitude mid-level disturbances and a prevalent warm conveyor over the south-central CONUS toward the Ozarks/Midwest will influence widespread showers across that same region with continued elevated thunderstorm potential especially across east/southeast Texas toward Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Weak surface-based destabilization should gradually occur near the upper Texas coast, beginning this afternoon and more so tonight. Within a favorable kinematic environment, a few stronger near-surface-based storms could occur as early as this afternoon across the upper Texas coast, but the overall severe thunderstorm potential is still expected to remain low through tonight. ...Western States... Showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of southwest Oregon and California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow, with steepening lapse rates. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area, but otherwise the previous outlook reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. A few stronger storms are possible this afternoon/evening near the upper TX coast, and perhaps late tonight near the Edwards Plateau region, but the severe threat still appears limited through the end of the period. ..Dean.. 01/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024/ ...South-central CONUS including coastal Texas... Surface high pressure and cold stable conditions will exist over the eastern half of the CONUS, but multiple low-amplitude mid-level disturbances and a prevalent warm conveyor over the south-central CONUS toward the Ozarks/Midwest will influence widespread showers across that same region with continued elevated thunderstorm potential especially across east/southeast Texas toward Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Weak surface-based destabilization should gradually occur near the upper Texas coast, beginning this afternoon and more so tonight. Within a favorable kinematic environment, a few stronger near-surface-based storms could occur as early as this afternoon across the upper Texas coast, but the overall severe thunderstorm potential is still expected to remain low through tonight. ...Western States... Showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of southwest Oregon and California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow, with steepening lapse rates. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area, but otherwise the previous outlook reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. A few stronger storms are possible this afternoon/evening near the upper TX coast, and perhaps late tonight near the Edwards Plateau region, but the severe threat still appears limited through the end of the period. ..Dean.. 01/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024/ ...South-central CONUS including coastal Texas... Surface high pressure and cold stable conditions will exist over the eastern half of the CONUS, but multiple low-amplitude mid-level disturbances and a prevalent warm conveyor over the south-central CONUS toward the Ozarks/Midwest will influence widespread showers across that same region with continued elevated thunderstorm potential especially across east/southeast Texas toward Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Weak surface-based destabilization should gradually occur near the upper Texas coast, beginning this afternoon and more so tonight. Within a favorable kinematic environment, a few stronger near-surface-based storms could occur as early as this afternoon across the upper Texas coast, but the overall severe thunderstorm potential is still expected to remain low through tonight. ...Western States... Showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of southwest Oregon and California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow, with steepening lapse rates. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area, but otherwise the previous outlook reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. A few stronger storms are possible this afternoon/evening near the upper TX coast, and perhaps late tonight near the Edwards Plateau region, but the severe threat still appears limited through the end of the period. ..Dean.. 01/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024/ ...South-central CONUS including coastal Texas... Surface high pressure and cold stable conditions will exist over the eastern half of the CONUS, but multiple low-amplitude mid-level disturbances and a prevalent warm conveyor over the south-central CONUS toward the Ozarks/Midwest will influence widespread showers across that same region with continued elevated thunderstorm potential especially across east/southeast Texas toward Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Weak surface-based destabilization should gradually occur near the upper Texas coast, beginning this afternoon and more so tonight. Within a favorable kinematic environment, a few stronger near-surface-based storms could occur as early as this afternoon across the upper Texas coast, but the overall severe thunderstorm potential is still expected to remain low through tonight. ...Western States... Showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of southwest Oregon and California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow, with steepening lapse rates. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area, but otherwise the previous outlook reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. A few stronger storms are possible this afternoon/evening near the upper TX coast, and perhaps late tonight near the Edwards Plateau region, but the severe threat still appears limited through the end of the period. ..Dean.. 01/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024/ ...South-central CONUS including coastal Texas... Surface high pressure and cold stable conditions will exist over the eastern half of the CONUS, but multiple low-amplitude mid-level disturbances and a prevalent warm conveyor over the south-central CONUS toward the Ozarks/Midwest will influence widespread showers across that same region with continued elevated thunderstorm potential especially across east/southeast Texas toward Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Weak surface-based destabilization should gradually occur near the upper Texas coast, beginning this afternoon and more so tonight. Within a favorable kinematic environment, a few stronger near-surface-based storms could occur as early as this afternoon across the upper Texas coast, but the overall severe thunderstorm potential is still expected to remain low through tonight. ...Western States... Showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of southwest Oregon and California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow, with steepening lapse rates. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will remain in place across the western/central US with continued cool and moist conditions extending into the eastern US by late Tuesday. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will remain in place across the western/central US with continued cool and moist conditions extending into the eastern US by late Tuesday. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more