Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO PARTS OF LA/MS AND SOUTHWEST AL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday from south-central and southeast Texas into parts of Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southwest Alabama. ...South TX into parts of the Southeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to deamplify somewhat as it moves northeastward from the southern Rockies toward the ArkLaTex region. A surface front (whose position will be determined in part by the evolution of convection during the D1/Tuesday period) will initially be draped somewhere from south TX northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss region, and then southeastward toward the central Gulf Coast vicinity. Uncertainty remains relatively high regarding storm evolution on D2/Wednesday. Broad ascent in advance of the approaching mid/upper-level trough and rich low-level moisture will likely support widespread cloudiness and convection from the mid/upper TX coast toward the central Gulf Coast region. While instability will likely remain limited across much of the area, rich low-level moisture and favorable deep-layer shear may support occasionally organized storm structures. There will likely be a tendency for most convection to remain on the cool side of the outflow-reinforced surface boundary, but if any surface-based storms can be sustained, then some threat for isolated damaging wind and possibly a tornado cannot be ruled out. Isolated hail will also be possible across parts of south-central/southeast TX, where somewhat more favorable midlevel lapse rates and instability are expected to persist along the southwestern periphery of extensive downstream convection. ..Dean.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO PARTS OF LA/MS AND SOUTHWEST AL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday from south-central and southeast Texas into parts of Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southwest Alabama. ...South TX into parts of the Southeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to deamplify somewhat as it moves northeastward from the southern Rockies toward the ArkLaTex region. A surface front (whose position will be determined in part by the evolution of convection during the D1/Tuesday period) will initially be draped somewhere from south TX northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss region, and then southeastward toward the central Gulf Coast vicinity. Uncertainty remains relatively high regarding storm evolution on D2/Wednesday. Broad ascent in advance of the approaching mid/upper-level trough and rich low-level moisture will likely support widespread cloudiness and convection from the mid/upper TX coast toward the central Gulf Coast region. While instability will likely remain limited across much of the area, rich low-level moisture and favorable deep-layer shear may support occasionally organized storm structures. There will likely be a tendency for most convection to remain on the cool side of the outflow-reinforced surface boundary, but if any surface-based storms can be sustained, then some threat for isolated damaging wind and possibly a tornado cannot be ruled out. Isolated hail will also be possible across parts of south-central/southeast TX, where somewhat more favorable midlevel lapse rates and instability are expected to persist along the southwestern periphery of extensive downstream convection. ..Dean.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough across the western/central US today will bring continued cool and moist conditions today, extending into the eastern US by late Tuesday. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough across the western/central US today will bring continued cool and moist conditions today, extending into the eastern US by late Tuesday. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough across the western/central US today will bring continued cool and moist conditions today, extending into the eastern US by late Tuesday. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough across the western/central US today will bring continued cool and moist conditions today, extending into the eastern US by late Tuesday. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough across the western/central US today will bring continued cool and moist conditions today, extending into the eastern US by late Tuesday. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...South/Southeast Texas and Louisiana... Prevalent cyclonic upper-level flow will exist ahead of the low-latitude southern-stream trough that will further dig and amplify over northwest Mexico. A relatively moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) warm sector will persist across much of south/east Texas into Louisiana, to the east/southeast of a front across Texas. Periodic showers/thunderstorms and prevalent multi-layer cloud cover will tend to hinder appreciable destabilization, but a few near-surface-based storms may evolve this afternoon into this evening. This convection could pose a risk for locally damaging winds and/or a brief tornado coincident with moderately strong low-level SRH. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain relatively low through the end of the period. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...South/Southeast Texas and Louisiana... Prevalent cyclonic upper-level flow will exist ahead of the low-latitude southern-stream trough that will further dig and amplify over northwest Mexico. A relatively moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) warm sector will persist across much of south/east Texas into Louisiana, to the east/southeast of a front across Texas. Periodic showers/thunderstorms and prevalent multi-layer cloud cover will tend to hinder appreciable destabilization, but a few near-surface-based storms may evolve this afternoon into this evening. This convection could pose a risk for locally damaging winds and/or a brief tornado coincident with moderately strong low-level SRH. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain relatively low through the end of the period. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...South/Southeast Texas and Louisiana... Prevalent cyclonic upper-level flow will exist ahead of the low-latitude southern-stream trough that will further dig and amplify over northwest Mexico. A relatively moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) warm sector will persist across much of south/east Texas into Louisiana, to the east/southeast of a front across Texas. Periodic showers/thunderstorms and prevalent multi-layer cloud cover will tend to hinder appreciable destabilization, but a few near-surface-based storms may evolve this afternoon into this evening. This convection could pose a risk for locally damaging winds and/or a brief tornado coincident with moderately strong low-level SRH. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain relatively low through the end of the period. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...South/Southeast Texas and Louisiana... Prevalent cyclonic upper-level flow will exist ahead of the low-latitude southern-stream trough that will further dig and amplify over northwest Mexico. A relatively moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) warm sector will persist across much of south/east Texas into Louisiana, to the east/southeast of a front across Texas. Periodic showers/thunderstorms and prevalent multi-layer cloud cover will tend to hinder appreciable destabilization, but a few near-surface-based storms may evolve this afternoon into this evening. This convection could pose a risk for locally damaging winds and/or a brief tornado coincident with moderately strong low-level SRH. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain relatively low through the end of the period. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...South/Southeast Texas and Louisiana... Prevalent cyclonic upper-level flow will exist ahead of the low-latitude southern-stream trough that will further dig and amplify over northwest Mexico. A relatively moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) warm sector will persist across much of south/east Texas into Louisiana, to the east/southeast of a front across Texas. Periodic showers/thunderstorms and prevalent multi-layer cloud cover will tend to hinder appreciable destabilization, but a few near-surface-based storms may evolve this afternoon into this evening. This convection could pose a risk for locally damaging winds and/or a brief tornado coincident with moderately strong low-level SRH. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain relatively low through the end of the period. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...South Texas and the Coastal Plain into western Louisiana... Showers and scattered/elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across Texas, in tandem with a southwesterly mid-level jet that will continue advancing northeastward out of Mexico across the southern Plains through tonight. Instability remains weak, and generally elevated atop a cool/still-stable boundary layer, with small hail locally approaching severe levels possible, as waves of convection spread across the area. Nearer the coast, as a very weak surface low develops over east Texas today, some inland advection of more moist gulf air will continue, with potential that a few near-surface-based storms eventually evolve this afternoon. This convection could pose local risk for gusty/damaging winds, and possibly a brief/weak tornado or two, though modest CAPE/weak lapse rates will limit severe potential despite favorably strong/veering flow with height. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain low through the end of the period. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...South Texas and the Coastal Plain into western Louisiana... Showers and scattered/elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across Texas, in tandem with a southwesterly mid-level jet that will continue advancing northeastward out of Mexico across the southern Plains through tonight. Instability remains weak, and generally elevated atop a cool/still-stable boundary layer, with small hail locally approaching severe levels possible, as waves of convection spread across the area. Nearer the coast, as a very weak surface low develops over east Texas today, some inland advection of more moist gulf air will continue, with potential that a few near-surface-based storms eventually evolve this afternoon. This convection could pose local risk for gusty/damaging winds, and possibly a brief/weak tornado or two, though modest CAPE/weak lapse rates will limit severe potential despite favorably strong/veering flow with height. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain low through the end of the period. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...South Texas and the Coastal Plain into western Louisiana... Showers and scattered/elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across Texas, in tandem with a southwesterly mid-level jet that will continue advancing northeastward out of Mexico across the southern Plains through tonight. Instability remains weak, and generally elevated atop a cool/still-stable boundary layer, with small hail locally approaching severe levels possible, as waves of convection spread across the area. Nearer the coast, as a very weak surface low develops over east Texas today, some inland advection of more moist gulf air will continue, with potential that a few near-surface-based storms eventually evolve this afternoon. This convection could pose local risk for gusty/damaging winds, and possibly a brief/weak tornado or two, though modest CAPE/weak lapse rates will limit severe potential despite favorably strong/veering flow with height. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain low through the end of the period. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...South Texas and the Coastal Plain into western Louisiana... Showers and scattered/elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across Texas, in tandem with a southwesterly mid-level jet that will continue advancing northeastward out of Mexico across the southern Plains through tonight. Instability remains weak, and generally elevated atop a cool/still-stable boundary layer, with small hail locally approaching severe levels possible, as waves of convection spread across the area. Nearer the coast, as a very weak surface low develops over east Texas today, some inland advection of more moist gulf air will continue, with potential that a few near-surface-based storms eventually evolve this afternoon. This convection could pose local risk for gusty/damaging winds, and possibly a brief/weak tornado or two, though modest CAPE/weak lapse rates will limit severe potential despite favorably strong/veering flow with height. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain low through the end of the period. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...South Texas and the Coastal Plain into western Louisiana... Showers and scattered/elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across Texas, in tandem with a southwesterly mid-level jet that will continue advancing northeastward out of Mexico across the southern Plains through tonight. Instability remains weak, and generally elevated atop a cool/still-stable boundary layer, with small hail locally approaching severe levels possible, as waves of convection spread across the area. Nearer the coast, as a very weak surface low develops over east Texas today, some inland advection of more moist gulf air will continue, with potential that a few near-surface-based storms eventually evolve this afternoon. This convection could pose local risk for gusty/damaging winds, and possibly a brief/weak tornado or two, though modest CAPE/weak lapse rates will limit severe potential despite favorably strong/veering flow with height. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain low through the end of the period. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...South Texas and the Coastal Plain into western Louisiana... Showers and scattered/elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across Texas, in tandem with a southwesterly mid-level jet that will continue advancing northeastward out of Mexico across the southern Plains through tonight. Instability remains weak, and generally elevated atop a cool/still-stable boundary layer, with small hail locally approaching severe levels possible, as waves of convection spread across the area. Nearer the coast, as a very weak surface low develops over east Texas today, some inland advection of more moist gulf air will continue, with potential that a few near-surface-based storms eventually evolve this afternoon. This convection could pose local risk for gusty/damaging winds, and possibly a brief/weak tornado or two, though modest CAPE/weak lapse rates will limit severe potential despite favorably strong/veering flow with height. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain low through the end of the period. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/23/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains on Friday to the eastern U.S. on Saturday. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across the Southeast and Carolinas, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon and evening. Although a marginal severe threat will be possible each day, the greatest threat would be from Friday night into Saturday, as an upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet move across the region. At this time, model forecasts have weak instability ahead of the upper-level system, which would be a limiting factor for a severe threat. However, the progressive nature of the mid-level jet and the associated strong deep-layer shear could be enough for a cluster of severe storms capable of producing wind damage. At this time, will keep the forecast at predictability too low, mainly due to uncertainty concerning the timing of the upper-level system and magnitude of instability across the moist sector. By Saturday, a severe threat would be possible in parts of the Carolinas. However, instability is again forecast to be very weak which introduces considerable uncertainty into the forecast scenario. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic on Sunday. In its wake, dry surface high pressure is forecast to move into much of the central and eastern U.S. For this reason, the potential for thunderstorm development across the continental U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday appears to be low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains on Friday to the eastern U.S. on Saturday. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across the Southeast and Carolinas, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon and evening. Although a marginal severe threat will be possible each day, the greatest threat would be from Friday night into Saturday, as an upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet move across the region. At this time, model forecasts have weak instability ahead of the upper-level system, which would be a limiting factor for a severe threat. However, the progressive nature of the mid-level jet and the associated strong deep-layer shear could be enough for a cluster of severe storms capable of producing wind damage. At this time, will keep the forecast at predictability too low, mainly due to uncertainty concerning the timing of the upper-level system and magnitude of instability across the moist sector. By Saturday, a severe threat would be possible in parts of the Carolinas. However, instability is again forecast to be very weak which introduces considerable uncertainty into the forecast scenario. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic on Sunday. In its wake, dry surface high pressure is forecast to move into much of the central and eastern U.S. For this reason, the potential for thunderstorm development across the continental U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday appears to be low. Read more