Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper high will be situated over the Bahamas as a potent shortwave trough moves from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley toward the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys through 00Z. Height falls will be more prominent across AR, MS, northern AL and into TN as the ridge holds to the southeast. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop roughly from LA into western KY, with little eastward progression of the cold front. Southerly winds over 35 kt at 850 will aid moisture transport off the Gulf of Mexico, with a mean warm from southeast LA into southern AL during the day. Upper 60s dewpoints are forecast south of this diffuse boundary, with mid 60s F eventually spreading into the southern Appalachians. ...Southern LA/MS into AL, FL Panhandle, northwest Georgia... Widespread thunderstorms and rain are expected from the Sabine Valley into MS, Middle TN and southern KY this morning, with over 1000 J/kg elevated CAPE from LA into central AL. Uncapped, SBCAPE will be present along parts of the LA coast, and gradual inland destabilization is expected. By midday, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is to extend across much of southern MS and central/southern AL. The greatest risk of a few severe storms producing damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado is forecast to be during the late morning to early afternoon period, prior to the negating large-scale effects of the trough moving away from the region. These negative effects will include a reduction in lift, veering low-level winds which will reduce SRH for supercells and tornadoes, and backing flow in the upper levels. All this suggests perhaps a few transient supercells especially early in the day and near the initial low-level moisture surge. Overall predictability is also low given the likelihood of widespread storms moving east across the lower MS Valley, but mesoscale factors could yield a brief tornado or damaging gust. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper high will be situated over the Bahamas as a potent shortwave trough moves from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley toward the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys through 00Z. Height falls will be more prominent across AR, MS, northern AL and into TN as the ridge holds to the southeast. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop roughly from LA into western KY, with little eastward progression of the cold front. Southerly winds over 35 kt at 850 will aid moisture transport off the Gulf of Mexico, with a mean warm from southeast LA into southern AL during the day. Upper 60s dewpoints are forecast south of this diffuse boundary, with mid 60s F eventually spreading into the southern Appalachians. ...Southern LA/MS into AL, FL Panhandle, northwest Georgia... Widespread thunderstorms and rain are expected from the Sabine Valley into MS, Middle TN and southern KY this morning, with over 1000 J/kg elevated CAPE from LA into central AL. Uncapped, SBCAPE will be present along parts of the LA coast, and gradual inland destabilization is expected. By midday, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is to extend across much of southern MS and central/southern AL. The greatest risk of a few severe storms producing damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado is forecast to be during the late morning to early afternoon period, prior to the negating large-scale effects of the trough moving away from the region. These negative effects will include a reduction in lift, veering low-level winds which will reduce SRH for supercells and tornadoes, and backing flow in the upper levels. All this suggests perhaps a few transient supercells especially early in the day and near the initial low-level moisture surge. Overall predictability is also low given the likelihood of widespread storms moving east across the lower MS Valley, but mesoscale factors could yield a brief tornado or damaging gust. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper high will be situated over the Bahamas as a potent shortwave trough moves from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley toward the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys through 00Z. Height falls will be more prominent across AR, MS, northern AL and into TN as the ridge holds to the southeast. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop roughly from LA into western KY, with little eastward progression of the cold front. Southerly winds over 35 kt at 850 will aid moisture transport off the Gulf of Mexico, with a mean warm from southeast LA into southern AL during the day. Upper 60s dewpoints are forecast south of this diffuse boundary, with mid 60s F eventually spreading into the southern Appalachians. ...Southern LA/MS into AL, FL Panhandle, northwest Georgia... Widespread thunderstorms and rain are expected from the Sabine Valley into MS, Middle TN and southern KY this morning, with over 1000 J/kg elevated CAPE from LA into central AL. Uncapped, SBCAPE will be present along parts of the LA coast, and gradual inland destabilization is expected. By midday, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is to extend across much of southern MS and central/southern AL. The greatest risk of a few severe storms producing damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado is forecast to be during the late morning to early afternoon period, prior to the negating large-scale effects of the trough moving away from the region. These negative effects will include a reduction in lift, veering low-level winds which will reduce SRH for supercells and tornadoes, and backing flow in the upper levels. All this suggests perhaps a few transient supercells especially early in the day and near the initial low-level moisture surge. Overall predictability is also low given the likelihood of widespread storms moving east across the lower MS Valley, but mesoscale factors could yield a brief tornado or damaging gust. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper high will be situated over the Bahamas as a potent shortwave trough moves from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley toward the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys through 00Z. Height falls will be more prominent across AR, MS, northern AL and into TN as the ridge holds to the southeast. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop roughly from LA into western KY, with little eastward progression of the cold front. Southerly winds over 35 kt at 850 will aid moisture transport off the Gulf of Mexico, with a mean warm from southeast LA into southern AL during the day. Upper 60s dewpoints are forecast south of this diffuse boundary, with mid 60s F eventually spreading into the southern Appalachians. ...Southern LA/MS into AL, FL Panhandle, northwest Georgia... Widespread thunderstorms and rain are expected from the Sabine Valley into MS, Middle TN and southern KY this morning, with over 1000 J/kg elevated CAPE from LA into central AL. Uncapped, SBCAPE will be present along parts of the LA coast, and gradual inland destabilization is expected. By midday, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is to extend across much of southern MS and central/southern AL. The greatest risk of a few severe storms producing damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado is forecast to be during the late morning to early afternoon period, prior to the negating large-scale effects of the trough moving away from the region. These negative effects will include a reduction in lift, veering low-level winds which will reduce SRH for supercells and tornadoes, and backing flow in the upper levels. All this suggests perhaps a few transient supercells especially early in the day and near the initial low-level moisture surge. Overall predictability is also low given the likelihood of widespread storms moving east across the lower MS Valley, but mesoscale factors could yield a brief tornado or damaging gust. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Westerly flow will further enhance across southern New Mexico into western/southwestern Texas on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph will likely overlap across the Texas/Mexico border just east of Big Bend and along the Rio Grande into south-central Texas. Widespread moist fuels will hinder fire spread potential, precluding the need to include any areas. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Westerly flow will further enhance across southern New Mexico into western/southwestern Texas on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph will likely overlap across the Texas/Mexico border just east of Big Bend and along the Rio Grande into south-central Texas. Widespread moist fuels will hinder fire spread potential, precluding the need to include any areas. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Westerly flow will further enhance across southern New Mexico into western/southwestern Texas on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph will likely overlap across the Texas/Mexico border just east of Big Bend and along the Rio Grande into south-central Texas. Widespread moist fuels will hinder fire spread potential, precluding the need to include any areas. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Westerly flow will further enhance across southern New Mexico into western/southwestern Texas on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph will likely overlap across the Texas/Mexico border just east of Big Bend and along the Rio Grande into south-central Texas. Widespread moist fuels will hinder fire spread potential, precluding the need to include any areas. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Westerly flow will further enhance across southern New Mexico into western/southwestern Texas on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph will likely overlap across the Texas/Mexico border just east of Big Bend and along the Rio Grande into south-central Texas. Widespread moist fuels will hinder fire spread potential, precluding the need to include any areas. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0089 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 0089 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Areas affected...Northern Vermont...Northern New Hampshire...portions of Western and Central Maine Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 250100Z - 250500Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain accumulations around 0.01-0.03 per per hour likely through the evening. DISCUSSION...Freezing rain accumulations of 0.01-0.03" have been reported across upstate New York over the last hour, with freezing rain being reported at several stations across portions of Vermont and New Hampshire. This threat will likely shift eastward into western Maine over the next few hours. The observed 00z sounding from GYX shows the profile is largely below zero from the surface to just above 850 mb. Strong warm air advection is ongoing in low to mid-level west to southwesterly flow from 850-500 mb. This is further supported in RAP forecast soundings indicating warming above the surface should support the downstream threat of freezing rain as the heavier precipitation arrives northeastward. Areas across the higher terrain of the White Mountains will likely see snow, with the best potential for freezing rain accumulations located across the lower valleys. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV... LAT...LON 43817003 43587019 43477042 43487067 43537097 43587201 43847258 44187284 44497289 44827252 44937205 44927195 44927117 45047025 45116990 45146953 44976935 44696931 44516935 44256962 43817003 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible through tonight from South Texas to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Southern TX to the northern Gulf Coast... A front currently stretches from near Brownsville TX northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and into southeast LA. Notably weak southerly flow will persist south of and near this front as an upper trough moves across TX. Overall advection of moisture and instability is forecast to remain minimal, but some recovery is possible over parts of southern LA and coastal MS/AL late tonight. The air mass near this front may support surface-based convection, although effective SRH will remain marginal for supercell or tornado threat. For near-term information, see mesoscale discussion 88. To the west, cooling aloft and lift with the upper trough may interact with elevated instability rooted above 850 mb to support marginally severe hail over parts of southern and southeastern TX tonight, supported by long hodographs. Storms are expected to for near the Rio Grande Valley late this evening, and spread rapidly eastward toward the Sabine Valley by 12Z Thursday. ..Jewell.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible through tonight from South Texas to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Southern TX to the northern Gulf Coast... A front currently stretches from near Brownsville TX northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and into southeast LA. Notably weak southerly flow will persist south of and near this front as an upper trough moves across TX. Overall advection of moisture and instability is forecast to remain minimal, but some recovery is possible over parts of southern LA and coastal MS/AL late tonight. The air mass near this front may support surface-based convection, although effective SRH will remain marginal for supercell or tornado threat. For near-term information, see mesoscale discussion 88. To the west, cooling aloft and lift with the upper trough may interact with elevated instability rooted above 850 mb to support marginally severe hail over parts of southern and southeastern TX tonight, supported by long hodographs. Storms are expected to for near the Rio Grande Valley late this evening, and spread rapidly eastward toward the Sabine Valley by 12Z Thursday. ..Jewell.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible through tonight from South Texas to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Southern TX to the northern Gulf Coast... A front currently stretches from near Brownsville TX northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and into southeast LA. Notably weak southerly flow will persist south of and near this front as an upper trough moves across TX. Overall advection of moisture and instability is forecast to remain minimal, but some recovery is possible over parts of southern LA and coastal MS/AL late tonight. The air mass near this front may support surface-based convection, although effective SRH will remain marginal for supercell or tornado threat. For near-term information, see mesoscale discussion 88. To the west, cooling aloft and lift with the upper trough may interact with elevated instability rooted above 850 mb to support marginally severe hail over parts of southern and southeastern TX tonight, supported by long hodographs. Storms are expected to for near the Rio Grande Valley late this evening, and spread rapidly eastward toward the Sabine Valley by 12Z Thursday. ..Jewell.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible through tonight from South Texas to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Southern TX to the northern Gulf Coast... A front currently stretches from near Brownsville TX northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and into southeast LA. Notably weak southerly flow will persist south of and near this front as an upper trough moves across TX. Overall advection of moisture and instability is forecast to remain minimal, but some recovery is possible over parts of southern LA and coastal MS/AL late tonight. The air mass near this front may support surface-based convection, although effective SRH will remain marginal for supercell or tornado threat. For near-term information, see mesoscale discussion 88. To the west, cooling aloft and lift with the upper trough may interact with elevated instability rooted above 850 mb to support marginally severe hail over parts of southern and southeastern TX tonight, supported by long hodographs. Storms are expected to for near the Rio Grande Valley late this evening, and spread rapidly eastward toward the Sabine Valley by 12Z Thursday. ..Jewell.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moist fuels are present across the entire CONUS presently. The majority of the CONUS will experience either cold weather or additional wetting rain. Some drying may occur across far West Texas into the Permian Basin. However, an extended period of dry weather will be needed for fuels to dry sufficiently for an increasing fire weather threat. ..Bentley.. 01/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more