Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fuels are currently very wet across the entire CONUS. The only region with any drying fuels during the period should be across portions of Far West Texas into the Permian Basin. However, given the current state of very wet fuels, any drying of fuels will likely not be sufficient enough to warrant any fire-weather threat. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0011 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 11 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE MOB TO 45 NW GZH TO 35 SSE TCL. ..KERR..01/25/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 11 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC047-099-131-252040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALLAS MONROE WILCOX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0011 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 11 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE MOB TO 45 NW GZH TO 35 SSE TCL. ..KERR..01/25/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 11 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC047-099-131-252040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALLAS MONROE WILCOX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 11 SEVERE TSTM AL MS 251655Z - 252200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 11 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Alabama Southeast Mississippi * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 1055 AM until 400 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A linear cluster of storms will continue generally eastward across the region and pose a severe risk, with some possibility that a few line-preceding storms also pose a severe risk this afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles south southwest of Meridian MS to 40 miles north of Evergreen AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Westerly flow will further enhance across southern New Mexico into western/southwestern Texas on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph will likely overlap across the Texas/Mexico border just east of Big Bend and along the Rio Grande into south-central Texas. Widespread moist fuels will hinder fire spread potential, precluding the need to include any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Westerly flow will further enhance across southern New Mexico into western/southwestern Texas on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph will likely overlap across the Texas/Mexico border just east of Big Bend and along the Rio Grande into south-central Texas. Widespread moist fuels will hinder fire spread potential, precluding the need to include any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Westerly flow will further enhance across southern New Mexico into western/southwestern Texas on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph will likely overlap across the Texas/Mexico border just east of Big Bend and along the Rio Grande into south-central Texas. Widespread moist fuels will hinder fire spread potential, precluding the need to include any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Westerly flow will further enhance across southern New Mexico into western/southwestern Texas on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph will likely overlap across the Texas/Mexico border just east of Big Bend and along the Rio Grande into south-central Texas. Widespread moist fuels will hinder fire spread potential, precluding the need to include any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Westerly flow will further enhance across southern New Mexico into western/southwestern Texas on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph will likely overlap across the Texas/Mexico border just east of Big Bend and along the Rio Grande into south-central Texas. Widespread moist fuels will hinder fire spread potential, precluding the need to include any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Westerly flow will further enhance across southern New Mexico into western/southwestern Texas on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph will likely overlap across the Texas/Mexico border just east of Big Bend and along the Rio Grande into south-central Texas. Widespread moist fuels will hinder fire spread potential, precluding the need to include any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Westerly flow will further enhance across southern New Mexico into western/southwestern Texas on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph will likely overlap across the Texas/Mexico border just east of Big Bend and along the Rio Grande into south-central Texas. Widespread moist fuels will hinder fire spread potential, precluding the need to include any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Westerly flow will further enhance across southern New Mexico into western/southwestern Texas on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph will likely overlap across the Texas/Mexico border just east of Big Bend and along the Rio Grande into south-central Texas. Widespread moist fuels will hinder fire spread potential, precluding the need to include any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0011 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 11 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW MOB TO 55 E PIB TO 45 SSW TCL. ..KERR..01/25/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 11 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC025-047-091-099-129-131-251940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE DALLAS MARENGO MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0091 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0091 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Areas affected...parts of southeast and east central Mississippi into southwest and west central Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 251622Z - 251815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development through Noon-2 PM CST may begin to pose at least some risk for tornadoes and locally damaging wind gusts. While the need for a severe weather watch is still not certain, trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms, along the leading edge of weak convective outflow advancing eastward and northeastward toward the Hattiesburg and Meridian vicinities, have tended to weaken the past couple of hours. However, new discrete thunderstorm development has being occurring in advance of the outflow, and may be in the process of intensifying, along the eastern flank of a strengthening southerly low-level jet (including 40-50 kt around 850 mb). This coincides with a corridor of low-level moistening and destabilization, across southeastern Mississippi through the central Mississippi/Alabama border vicinity, where further erosion of a remnant shallow surface-based stable layer may allow for more substantive thunderstorm intensification by early afternoon. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs in advance of the convective outflow may become conducive to supercells with potential to produce tornadoes. Closer to the approaching outflow boundary, low-level hodographs are generally forecast to become more linear, but strengthening convection could become conducive to increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 32068910 32918884 33148712 31768784 30838843 30288925 30618956 31218944 32068910 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday, though a few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast vicinity, and also across parts of Texas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains on Friday. A weak surface low initially near the TX South Plains is expected to weaken, with renewed cyclogenesis possible Friday night near the Louisiana Gulf Coast vicinity. ...Central Gulf Coast vicinity... Convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning from near the central Gulf Coast into the northwest/north-central Gulf of Mexico, though guidance varies regarding the coverage and southward extent of morning storms across the region. The evolution of morning convection and its potential persistence into the afternoon will determine how far north the effective surface warm front can move (and also the favored location for cyclogenesis) in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strengthening low-level warm advection during the evening/overnight will also likely lead to increasing elevated convection north of the boundary across parts of the Southeast, which would tend to impede the return of richer near-surface moisture. Low-level and deep-layer shear will increase across the region in response to the approaching shortwave trough and developing surface low. If richer low-level moisture (upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints) can return inland, then some potential for rotating surface-based convection with a threat of locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado could evolve prior to the end of the forecast period. However, with extensive antecedent convection potentially suppressing low-level moisture return through 12Z Saturday, no probabilities have been included at this time. Small hail could accompany the stronger elevated convection north of the front, but modest elevated buoyancy will likely tend to limit the severe threat with this activity. ...TX South Plains into western north TX... Cold temperatures aloft (less than -20C at 500 mb) attendant to the shortwave trough will overspread parts of the TX South Plains and western north TX during the afternoon. This will support SBCAPE increasing to around 500 J/kg where temperatures can warm into the mid 50s F. A few thunderstorms with small hail and gusty winds will be possible, though with buoyancy and deep-layer shear expected to remain modest at best, the organized-severe threat appears low at this time. ..Dean.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday, though a few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast vicinity, and also across parts of Texas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains on Friday. A weak surface low initially near the TX South Plains is expected to weaken, with renewed cyclogenesis possible Friday night near the Louisiana Gulf Coast vicinity. ...Central Gulf Coast vicinity... Convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning from near the central Gulf Coast into the northwest/north-central Gulf of Mexico, though guidance varies regarding the coverage and southward extent of morning storms across the region. The evolution of morning convection and its potential persistence into the afternoon will determine how far north the effective surface warm front can move (and also the favored location for cyclogenesis) in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strengthening low-level warm advection during the evening/overnight will also likely lead to increasing elevated convection north of the boundary across parts of the Southeast, which would tend to impede the return of richer near-surface moisture. Low-level and deep-layer shear will increase across the region in response to the approaching shortwave trough and developing surface low. If richer low-level moisture (upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints) can return inland, then some potential for rotating surface-based convection with a threat of locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado could evolve prior to the end of the forecast period. However, with extensive antecedent convection potentially suppressing low-level moisture return through 12Z Saturday, no probabilities have been included at this time. Small hail could accompany the stronger elevated convection north of the front, but modest elevated buoyancy will likely tend to limit the severe threat with this activity. ...TX South Plains into western north TX... Cold temperatures aloft (less than -20C at 500 mb) attendant to the shortwave trough will overspread parts of the TX South Plains and western north TX during the afternoon. This will support SBCAPE increasing to around 500 J/kg where temperatures can warm into the mid 50s F. A few thunderstorms with small hail and gusty winds will be possible, though with buoyancy and deep-layer shear expected to remain modest at best, the organized-severe threat appears low at this time. ..Dean.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday, though a few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast vicinity, and also across parts of Texas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains on Friday. A weak surface low initially near the TX South Plains is expected to weaken, with renewed cyclogenesis possible Friday night near the Louisiana Gulf Coast vicinity. ...Central Gulf Coast vicinity... Convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning from near the central Gulf Coast into the northwest/north-central Gulf of Mexico, though guidance varies regarding the coverage and southward extent of morning storms across the region. The evolution of morning convection and its potential persistence into the afternoon will determine how far north the effective surface warm front can move (and also the favored location for cyclogenesis) in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strengthening low-level warm advection during the evening/overnight will also likely lead to increasing elevated convection north of the boundary across parts of the Southeast, which would tend to impede the return of richer near-surface moisture. Low-level and deep-layer shear will increase across the region in response to the approaching shortwave trough and developing surface low. If richer low-level moisture (upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints) can return inland, then some potential for rotating surface-based convection with a threat of locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado could evolve prior to the end of the forecast period. However, with extensive antecedent convection potentially suppressing low-level moisture return through 12Z Saturday, no probabilities have been included at this time. Small hail could accompany the stronger elevated convection north of the front, but modest elevated buoyancy will likely tend to limit the severe threat with this activity. ...TX South Plains into western north TX... Cold temperatures aloft (less than -20C at 500 mb) attendant to the shortwave trough will overspread parts of the TX South Plains and western north TX during the afternoon. This will support SBCAPE increasing to around 500 J/kg where temperatures can warm into the mid 50s F. A few thunderstorms with small hail and gusty winds will be possible, though with buoyancy and deep-layer shear expected to remain modest at best, the organized-severe threat appears low at this time. ..Dean.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday, though a few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast vicinity, and also across parts of Texas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains on Friday. A weak surface low initially near the TX South Plains is expected to weaken, with renewed cyclogenesis possible Friday night near the Louisiana Gulf Coast vicinity. ...Central Gulf Coast vicinity... Convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning from near the central Gulf Coast into the northwest/north-central Gulf of Mexico, though guidance varies regarding the coverage and southward extent of morning storms across the region. The evolution of morning convection and its potential persistence into the afternoon will determine how far north the effective surface warm front can move (and also the favored location for cyclogenesis) in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strengthening low-level warm advection during the evening/overnight will also likely lead to increasing elevated convection north of the boundary across parts of the Southeast, which would tend to impede the return of richer near-surface moisture. Low-level and deep-layer shear will increase across the region in response to the approaching shortwave trough and developing surface low. If richer low-level moisture (upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints) can return inland, then some potential for rotating surface-based convection with a threat of locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado could evolve prior to the end of the forecast period. However, with extensive antecedent convection potentially suppressing low-level moisture return through 12Z Saturday, no probabilities have been included at this time. Small hail could accompany the stronger elevated convection north of the front, but modest elevated buoyancy will likely tend to limit the severe threat with this activity. ...TX South Plains into western north TX... Cold temperatures aloft (less than -20C at 500 mb) attendant to the shortwave trough will overspread parts of the TX South Plains and western north TX during the afternoon. This will support SBCAPE increasing to around 500 J/kg where temperatures can warm into the mid 50s F. A few thunderstorms with small hail and gusty winds will be possible, though with buoyancy and deep-layer shear expected to remain modest at best, the organized-severe threat appears low at this time. ..Dean.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday, though a few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast vicinity, and also across parts of Texas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains on Friday. A weak surface low initially near the TX South Plains is expected to weaken, with renewed cyclogenesis possible Friday night near the Louisiana Gulf Coast vicinity. ...Central Gulf Coast vicinity... Convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning from near the central Gulf Coast into the northwest/north-central Gulf of Mexico, though guidance varies regarding the coverage and southward extent of morning storms across the region. The evolution of morning convection and its potential persistence into the afternoon will determine how far north the effective surface warm front can move (and also the favored location for cyclogenesis) in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strengthening low-level warm advection during the evening/overnight will also likely lead to increasing elevated convection north of the boundary across parts of the Southeast, which would tend to impede the return of richer near-surface moisture. Low-level and deep-layer shear will increase across the region in response to the approaching shortwave trough and developing surface low. If richer low-level moisture (upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints) can return inland, then some potential for rotating surface-based convection with a threat of locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado could evolve prior to the end of the forecast period. However, with extensive antecedent convection potentially suppressing low-level moisture return through 12Z Saturday, no probabilities have been included at this time. Small hail could accompany the stronger elevated convection north of the front, but modest elevated buoyancy will likely tend to limit the severe threat with this activity. ...TX South Plains into western north TX... Cold temperatures aloft (less than -20C at 500 mb) attendant to the shortwave trough will overspread parts of the TX South Plains and western north TX during the afternoon. This will support SBCAPE increasing to around 500 J/kg where temperatures can warm into the mid 50s F. A few thunderstorms with small hail and gusty winds will be possible, though with buoyancy and deep-layer shear expected to remain modest at best, the organized-severe threat appears low at this time. ..Dean.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday, though a few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast vicinity, and also across parts of Texas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains on Friday. A weak surface low initially near the TX South Plains is expected to weaken, with renewed cyclogenesis possible Friday night near the Louisiana Gulf Coast vicinity. ...Central Gulf Coast vicinity... Convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning from near the central Gulf Coast into the northwest/north-central Gulf of Mexico, though guidance varies regarding the coverage and southward extent of morning storms across the region. The evolution of morning convection and its potential persistence into the afternoon will determine how far north the effective surface warm front can move (and also the favored location for cyclogenesis) in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strengthening low-level warm advection during the evening/overnight will also likely lead to increasing elevated convection north of the boundary across parts of the Southeast, which would tend to impede the return of richer near-surface moisture. Low-level and deep-layer shear will increase across the region in response to the approaching shortwave trough and developing surface low. If richer low-level moisture (upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints) can return inland, then some potential for rotating surface-based convection with a threat of locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado could evolve prior to the end of the forecast period. However, with extensive antecedent convection potentially suppressing low-level moisture return through 12Z Saturday, no probabilities have been included at this time. Small hail could accompany the stronger elevated convection north of the front, but modest elevated buoyancy will likely tend to limit the severe threat with this activity. ...TX South Plains into western north TX... Cold temperatures aloft (less than -20C at 500 mb) attendant to the shortwave trough will overspread parts of the TX South Plains and western north TX during the afternoon. This will support SBCAPE increasing to around 500 J/kg where temperatures can warm into the mid 50s F. A few thunderstorms with small hail and gusty winds will be possible, though with buoyancy and deep-layer shear expected to remain modest at best, the organized-severe threat appears low at this time. ..Dean.. 01/25/2024 Read more