Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible from Saturday morning through early evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the Deep South. ...Central Gulf Coast and Deep South... Below-average confidence exists with the most likely outcome for the degree of severe storm coverage on Saturday, with two conditional scenarios evident across the region. Initially, a swath of warm-conveyor-driven convection is expected to be ongoing at 12Z from the northwest Gulf through MS and west AL, downstream of shortwave trough near the Ark-La-Tex. Richer surface dew points will attempt to spread inland, mainly in the central Gulf Coast vicinity, but further inland destabilization will be limited by extensive cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates. Thus, an increase in convective intensity is possible near the immediate Gulf Coast where low-level hodographs will be sufficiently enlarged. A few embedded supercell/mesovortex structures are possible as this convection spreads into south AL and the western FL Panhandle. A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds would be most probable from mid-morning into early afternoon. Most CAM guidance suggests this early period activity should wane later in the afternoon as forcing for ascent weakens. Low-level warm advection/placement of the jet should shift north away from the coast as destabilization struggles with eastward extent. In its wake, an intrusion of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (beneath weak upper-level lapse rates) should accompany the shortwave trough moving east across the Mid-South. This will likely aid in afternoon destabilization towards the TN Valley. Guidance differs on the degree of boundary-layer destabilization, ahead of the weakly cyclogenetic surface low expected to evolve from the Ark-La-Miss to eastern TN. But there are indications that cloud breaks may occur from southeast MS into parts of west AL beneath the mid-level dry slot, which may yield a confined plume of weak surface-based instability. Conditionally, a moderately enlarged low-level hodograph below a rather elongated mid to upper hodograph would favor the possibility of a few low-topped, discrete supercells, before low-level winds become increasingly veered near the impinging cold front. This appears focused on the central to north AL vicinity during the late afternoon to early evening. Should adequate destabilization occur at peak heating, a couple tornadoes will be possible before convection tends to subside after dusk and with eastern extent into GA. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible from Saturday morning through early evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the Deep South. ...Central Gulf Coast and Deep South... Below-average confidence exists with the most likely outcome for the degree of severe storm coverage on Saturday, with two conditional scenarios evident across the region. Initially, a swath of warm-conveyor-driven convection is expected to be ongoing at 12Z from the northwest Gulf through MS and west AL, downstream of shortwave trough near the Ark-La-Tex. Richer surface dew points will attempt to spread inland, mainly in the central Gulf Coast vicinity, but further inland destabilization will be limited by extensive cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates. Thus, an increase in convective intensity is possible near the immediate Gulf Coast where low-level hodographs will be sufficiently enlarged. A few embedded supercell/mesovortex structures are possible as this convection spreads into south AL and the western FL Panhandle. A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds would be most probable from mid-morning into early afternoon. Most CAM guidance suggests this early period activity should wane later in the afternoon as forcing for ascent weakens. Low-level warm advection/placement of the jet should shift north away from the coast as destabilization struggles with eastward extent. In its wake, an intrusion of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (beneath weak upper-level lapse rates) should accompany the shortwave trough moving east across the Mid-South. This will likely aid in afternoon destabilization towards the TN Valley. Guidance differs on the degree of boundary-layer destabilization, ahead of the weakly cyclogenetic surface low expected to evolve from the Ark-La-Miss to eastern TN. But there are indications that cloud breaks may occur from southeast MS into parts of west AL beneath the mid-level dry slot, which may yield a confined plume of weak surface-based instability. Conditionally, a moderately enlarged low-level hodograph below a rather elongated mid to upper hodograph would favor the possibility of a few low-topped, discrete supercells, before low-level winds become increasingly veered near the impinging cold front. This appears focused on the central to north AL vicinity during the late afternoon to early evening. Should adequate destabilization occur at peak heating, a couple tornadoes will be possible before convection tends to subside after dusk and with eastern extent into GA. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible from Saturday morning through early evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the Deep South. ...Central Gulf Coast and Deep South... Below-average confidence exists with the most likely outcome for the degree of severe storm coverage on Saturday, with two conditional scenarios evident across the region. Initially, a swath of warm-conveyor-driven convection is expected to be ongoing at 12Z from the northwest Gulf through MS and west AL, downstream of shortwave trough near the Ark-La-Tex. Richer surface dew points will attempt to spread inland, mainly in the central Gulf Coast vicinity, but further inland destabilization will be limited by extensive cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates. Thus, an increase in convective intensity is possible near the immediate Gulf Coast where low-level hodographs will be sufficiently enlarged. A few embedded supercell/mesovortex structures are possible as this convection spreads into south AL and the western FL Panhandle. A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds would be most probable from mid-morning into early afternoon. Most CAM guidance suggests this early period activity should wane later in the afternoon as forcing for ascent weakens. Low-level warm advection/placement of the jet should shift north away from the coast as destabilization struggles with eastward extent. In its wake, an intrusion of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (beneath weak upper-level lapse rates) should accompany the shortwave trough moving east across the Mid-South. This will likely aid in afternoon destabilization towards the TN Valley. Guidance differs on the degree of boundary-layer destabilization, ahead of the weakly cyclogenetic surface low expected to evolve from the Ark-La-Miss to eastern TN. But there are indications that cloud breaks may occur from southeast MS into parts of west AL beneath the mid-level dry slot, which may yield a confined plume of weak surface-based instability. Conditionally, a moderately enlarged low-level hodograph below a rather elongated mid to upper hodograph would favor the possibility of a few low-topped, discrete supercells, before low-level winds become increasingly veered near the impinging cold front. This appears focused on the central to north AL vicinity during the late afternoon to early evening. Should adequate destabilization occur at peak heating, a couple tornadoes will be possible before convection tends to subside after dusk and with eastern extent into GA. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough shifts into the Southeast, a surface cold front will continue through the southern Plains and into the Gulf of Mexico. Cool/moist conditions over currently unreceptive fuels should continue to preclude fire weather concerns on Saturday. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough shifts into the Southeast, a surface cold front will continue through the southern Plains and into the Gulf of Mexico. Cool/moist conditions over currently unreceptive fuels should continue to preclude fire weather concerns on Saturday. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough shifts into the Southeast, a surface cold front will continue through the southern Plains and into the Gulf of Mexico. Cool/moist conditions over currently unreceptive fuels should continue to preclude fire weather concerns on Saturday. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough shifts into the Southeast, a surface cold front will continue through the southern Plains and into the Gulf of Mexico. Cool/moist conditions over currently unreceptive fuels should continue to preclude fire weather concerns on Saturday. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough shifts into the Southeast, a surface cold front will continue through the southern Plains and into the Gulf of Mexico. Cool/moist conditions over currently unreceptive fuels should continue to preclude fire weather concerns on Saturday. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will strengthen as it ejects into the southern Plains today. Ahead of a surface cold front, westerly winds within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will increase. Marginal RH reductions to around 20% in some areas is possible. Fire weather concerns should still remain minimal given generally unfavorable fuels. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will strengthen as it ejects into the southern Plains today. Ahead of a surface cold front, westerly winds within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will increase. Marginal RH reductions to around 20% in some areas is possible. Fire weather concerns should still remain minimal given generally unfavorable fuels. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will strengthen as it ejects into the southern Plains today. Ahead of a surface cold front, westerly winds within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will increase. Marginal RH reductions to around 20% in some areas is possible. Fire weather concerns should still remain minimal given generally unfavorable fuels. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will strengthen as it ejects into the southern Plains today. Ahead of a surface cold front, westerly winds within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will increase. Marginal RH reductions to around 20% in some areas is possible. Fire weather concerns should still remain minimal given generally unfavorable fuels. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will strengthen as it ejects into the southern Plains today. Ahead of a surface cold front, westerly winds within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will increase. Marginal RH reductions to around 20% in some areas is possible. Fire weather concerns should still remain minimal given generally unfavorable fuels. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast, most notably across coastal Louisiana and Mississippi, and also over parts of eastern Texas. Severe weather chances appear low at this time. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough will move into the southern Plains today, with an intense cyclonically curved midlevel speed max moving across TX, reaching the Sabine Valley/ArkLaTex by 12Z Saturday. Meanwhile, a relatively cool and stable surface air mass will remain over land, with a coastal boundary along the TX and northern Gulf Coast. Weak low pressure is expected to form overnight, moving from the western Gulf toward LA/MS. Widespread convection will exist over the water, with the cool surface air mass mitigating severe potential despite increasing shear. ...Eastern TX...Coastal LA and MS... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing over the northern Gulf of Mexico for much of the day, shifting east toward the coastal FL Panhandle by evening. Generally weak southerly low-level winds will maintain moisture advection northward toward the coastal boundary, with clusters of storms over the Gulf of Mexico likely intercepting much of the return flow. As such, mainly elevated storms are forecast over land along the central Gulf Coast during the day. To the west, elevated instability will develop over much of eastern TX and LA ahead of the upper trough, especially late in the day as 850 mb flow reaches 30 kt. A cold front will eventually intercept this elevated instability, with a rash of convection developing after 00Z across east TX, LA, and to the MS River. These storms may increase in intensity during the evening as height falls persist and a cold front pushes through. Forecast soundings depict midlevel lapse rates around 6.5 C/km, only modestly steep for the area, with increasing winds with height and 30-40 kt deep-layer effective shear. This could potentially support small hail in the stronger cells. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast, most notably across coastal Louisiana and Mississippi, and also over parts of eastern Texas. Severe weather chances appear low at this time. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough will move into the southern Plains today, with an intense cyclonically curved midlevel speed max moving across TX, reaching the Sabine Valley/ArkLaTex by 12Z Saturday. Meanwhile, a relatively cool and stable surface air mass will remain over land, with a coastal boundary along the TX and northern Gulf Coast. Weak low pressure is expected to form overnight, moving from the western Gulf toward LA/MS. Widespread convection will exist over the water, with the cool surface air mass mitigating severe potential despite increasing shear. ...Eastern TX...Coastal LA and MS... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing over the northern Gulf of Mexico for much of the day, shifting east toward the coastal FL Panhandle by evening. Generally weak southerly low-level winds will maintain moisture advection northward toward the coastal boundary, with clusters of storms over the Gulf of Mexico likely intercepting much of the return flow. As such, mainly elevated storms are forecast over land along the central Gulf Coast during the day. To the west, elevated instability will develop over much of eastern TX and LA ahead of the upper trough, especially late in the day as 850 mb flow reaches 30 kt. A cold front will eventually intercept this elevated instability, with a rash of convection developing after 00Z across east TX, LA, and to the MS River. These storms may increase in intensity during the evening as height falls persist and a cold front pushes through. Forecast soundings depict midlevel lapse rates around 6.5 C/km, only modestly steep for the area, with increasing winds with height and 30-40 kt deep-layer effective shear. This could potentially support small hail in the stronger cells. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast, most notably across coastal Louisiana and Mississippi, and also over parts of eastern Texas. Severe weather chances appear low at this time. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough will move into the southern Plains today, with an intense cyclonically curved midlevel speed max moving across TX, reaching the Sabine Valley/ArkLaTex by 12Z Saturday. Meanwhile, a relatively cool and stable surface air mass will remain over land, with a coastal boundary along the TX and northern Gulf Coast. Weak low pressure is expected to form overnight, moving from the western Gulf toward LA/MS. Widespread convection will exist over the water, with the cool surface air mass mitigating severe potential despite increasing shear. ...Eastern TX...Coastal LA and MS... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing over the northern Gulf of Mexico for much of the day, shifting east toward the coastal FL Panhandle by evening. Generally weak southerly low-level winds will maintain moisture advection northward toward the coastal boundary, with clusters of storms over the Gulf of Mexico likely intercepting much of the return flow. As such, mainly elevated storms are forecast over land along the central Gulf Coast during the day. To the west, elevated instability will develop over much of eastern TX and LA ahead of the upper trough, especially late in the day as 850 mb flow reaches 30 kt. A cold front will eventually intercept this elevated instability, with a rash of convection developing after 00Z across east TX, LA, and to the MS River. These storms may increase in intensity during the evening as height falls persist and a cold front pushes through. Forecast soundings depict midlevel lapse rates around 6.5 C/km, only modestly steep for the area, with increasing winds with height and 30-40 kt deep-layer effective shear. This could potentially support small hail in the stronger cells. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast, most notably across coastal Louisiana and Mississippi, and also over parts of eastern Texas. Severe weather chances appear low at this time. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough will move into the southern Plains today, with an intense cyclonically curved midlevel speed max moving across TX, reaching the Sabine Valley/ArkLaTex by 12Z Saturday. Meanwhile, a relatively cool and stable surface air mass will remain over land, with a coastal boundary along the TX and northern Gulf Coast. Weak low pressure is expected to form overnight, moving from the western Gulf toward LA/MS. Widespread convection will exist over the water, with the cool surface air mass mitigating severe potential despite increasing shear. ...Eastern TX...Coastal LA and MS... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing over the northern Gulf of Mexico for much of the day, shifting east toward the coastal FL Panhandle by evening. Generally weak southerly low-level winds will maintain moisture advection northward toward the coastal boundary, with clusters of storms over the Gulf of Mexico likely intercepting much of the return flow. As such, mainly elevated storms are forecast over land along the central Gulf Coast during the day. To the west, elevated instability will develop over much of eastern TX and LA ahead of the upper trough, especially late in the day as 850 mb flow reaches 30 kt. A cold front will eventually intercept this elevated instability, with a rash of convection developing after 00Z across east TX, LA, and to the MS River. These storms may increase in intensity during the evening as height falls persist and a cold front pushes through. Forecast soundings depict midlevel lapse rates around 6.5 C/km, only modestly steep for the area, with increasing winds with height and 30-40 kt deep-layer effective shear. This could potentially support small hail in the stronger cells. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast, most notably across coastal Louisiana and Mississippi, and also over parts of eastern Texas. Severe weather chances appear low at this time. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough will move into the southern Plains today, with an intense cyclonically curved midlevel speed max moving across TX, reaching the Sabine Valley/ArkLaTex by 12Z Saturday. Meanwhile, a relatively cool and stable surface air mass will remain over land, with a coastal boundary along the TX and northern Gulf Coast. Weak low pressure is expected to form overnight, moving from the western Gulf toward LA/MS. Widespread convection will exist over the water, with the cool surface air mass mitigating severe potential despite increasing shear. ...Eastern TX...Coastal LA and MS... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing over the northern Gulf of Mexico for much of the day, shifting east toward the coastal FL Panhandle by evening. Generally weak southerly low-level winds will maintain moisture advection northward toward the coastal boundary, with clusters of storms over the Gulf of Mexico likely intercepting much of the return flow. As such, mainly elevated storms are forecast over land along the central Gulf Coast during the day. To the west, elevated instability will develop over much of eastern TX and LA ahead of the upper trough, especially late in the day as 850 mb flow reaches 30 kt. A cold front will eventually intercept this elevated instability, with a rash of convection developing after 00Z across east TX, LA, and to the MS River. These storms may increase in intensity during the evening as height falls persist and a cold front pushes through. Forecast soundings depict midlevel lapse rates around 6.5 C/km, only modestly steep for the area, with increasing winds with height and 30-40 kt deep-layer effective shear. This could potentially support small hail in the stronger cells. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through Friday morning, but a few storms may linger this evening over parts of the Southeast. ...Discussion... A few thunderstorms persist this evening from northeast GA into the FL Panhandle, with more substantial storms well offshore over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Little is left to support additional development over land given the loss of heating and movement of a wave northeastward across the OH Valley, and as such, low-end severe probabilities have been removed. A gradual expansion northward of the northern-Gulf activity may occur into Friday morning, as low-level warm advection increases in advance of an upper trough moving toward the southern Plains. Elevated instability in this region may reach 1000 J/kg, supporting a few robust storms over far southern LA, well north of the surface warm front. ..Jewell.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through Friday morning, but a few storms may linger this evening over parts of the Southeast. ...Discussion... A few thunderstorms persist this evening from northeast GA into the FL Panhandle, with more substantial storms well offshore over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Little is left to support additional development over land given the loss of heating and movement of a wave northeastward across the OH Valley, and as such, low-end severe probabilities have been removed. A gradual expansion northward of the northern-Gulf activity may occur into Friday morning, as low-level warm advection increases in advance of an upper trough moving toward the southern Plains. Elevated instability in this region may reach 1000 J/kg, supporting a few robust storms over far southern LA, well north of the surface warm front. ..Jewell.. 01/26/2024 Read more