Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday, though a few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast vicinity, and also across parts of Texas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains on Friday. A weak surface low initially near the TX South Plains is expected to weaken, with renewed cyclogenesis possible Friday night near the Louisiana Gulf Coast vicinity. ...Central Gulf Coast vicinity... Convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning from near the central Gulf Coast into the northwest/north-central Gulf of Mexico, though guidance varies regarding the coverage and southward extent of morning storms across the region. The evolution of morning convection and its potential persistence into the afternoon will determine how far north the effective surface warm front can move (and also the favored location for cyclogenesis) in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strengthening low-level warm advection during the evening/overnight will also likely lead to increasing elevated convection north of the boundary across parts of the Southeast, which would tend to impede the return of richer near-surface moisture. Low-level and deep-layer shear will increase across the region in response to the approaching shortwave trough and developing surface low. If richer low-level moisture (upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints) can return inland, then some potential for rotating surface-based convection with a threat of locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado could evolve prior to the end of the forecast period. However, with extensive antecedent convection potentially suppressing low-level moisture return through 12Z Saturday, no probabilities have been included at this time. Small hail could accompany the stronger elevated convection north of the front, but modest elevated buoyancy will likely tend to limit the severe threat with this activity. ...TX South Plains into western north TX... Cold temperatures aloft (less than -20C at 500 mb) attendant to the shortwave trough will overspread parts of the TX South Plains and western north TX during the afternoon. This will support SBCAPE increasing to around 500 J/kg where temperatures can warm into the mid 50s F. A few thunderstorms with small hail and gusty winds will be possible, though with buoyancy and deep-layer shear expected to remain modest at best, the organized-severe threat appears low at this time. ..Dean.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday, though a few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast vicinity, and also across parts of Texas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains on Friday. A weak surface low initially near the TX South Plains is expected to weaken, with renewed cyclogenesis possible Friday night near the Louisiana Gulf Coast vicinity. ...Central Gulf Coast vicinity... Convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning from near the central Gulf Coast into the northwest/north-central Gulf of Mexico, though guidance varies regarding the coverage and southward extent of morning storms across the region. The evolution of morning convection and its potential persistence into the afternoon will determine how far north the effective surface warm front can move (and also the favored location for cyclogenesis) in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strengthening low-level warm advection during the evening/overnight will also likely lead to increasing elevated convection north of the boundary across parts of the Southeast, which would tend to impede the return of richer near-surface moisture. Low-level and deep-layer shear will increase across the region in response to the approaching shortwave trough and developing surface low. If richer low-level moisture (upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints) can return inland, then some potential for rotating surface-based convection with a threat of locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado could evolve prior to the end of the forecast period. However, with extensive antecedent convection potentially suppressing low-level moisture return through 12Z Saturday, no probabilities have been included at this time. Small hail could accompany the stronger elevated convection north of the front, but modest elevated buoyancy will likely tend to limit the severe threat with this activity. ...TX South Plains into western north TX... Cold temperatures aloft (less than -20C at 500 mb) attendant to the shortwave trough will overspread parts of the TX South Plains and western north TX during the afternoon. This will support SBCAPE increasing to around 500 J/kg where temperatures can warm into the mid 50s F. A few thunderstorms with small hail and gusty winds will be possible, though with buoyancy and deep-layer shear expected to remain modest at best, the organized-severe threat appears low at this time. ..Dean.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday, though a few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast vicinity, and also across parts of Texas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains on Friday. A weak surface low initially near the TX South Plains is expected to weaken, with renewed cyclogenesis possible Friday night near the Louisiana Gulf Coast vicinity. ...Central Gulf Coast vicinity... Convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning from near the central Gulf Coast into the northwest/north-central Gulf of Mexico, though guidance varies regarding the coverage and southward extent of morning storms across the region. The evolution of morning convection and its potential persistence into the afternoon will determine how far north the effective surface warm front can move (and also the favored location for cyclogenesis) in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strengthening low-level warm advection during the evening/overnight will also likely lead to increasing elevated convection north of the boundary across parts of the Southeast, which would tend to impede the return of richer near-surface moisture. Low-level and deep-layer shear will increase across the region in response to the approaching shortwave trough and developing surface low. If richer low-level moisture (upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints) can return inland, then some potential for rotating surface-based convection with a threat of locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado could evolve prior to the end of the forecast period. However, with extensive antecedent convection potentially suppressing low-level moisture return through 12Z Saturday, no probabilities have been included at this time. Small hail could accompany the stronger elevated convection north of the front, but modest elevated buoyancy will likely tend to limit the severe threat with this activity. ...TX South Plains into western north TX... Cold temperatures aloft (less than -20C at 500 mb) attendant to the shortwave trough will overspread parts of the TX South Plains and western north TX during the afternoon. This will support SBCAPE increasing to around 500 J/kg where temperatures can warm into the mid 50s F. A few thunderstorms with small hail and gusty winds will be possible, though with buoyancy and deep-layer shear expected to remain modest at best, the organized-severe threat appears low at this time. ..Dean.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday, though a few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast vicinity, and also across parts of Texas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains on Friday. A weak surface low initially near the TX South Plains is expected to weaken, with renewed cyclogenesis possible Friday night near the Louisiana Gulf Coast vicinity. ...Central Gulf Coast vicinity... Convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning from near the central Gulf Coast into the northwest/north-central Gulf of Mexico, though guidance varies regarding the coverage and southward extent of morning storms across the region. The evolution of morning convection and its potential persistence into the afternoon will determine how far north the effective surface warm front can move (and also the favored location for cyclogenesis) in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strengthening low-level warm advection during the evening/overnight will also likely lead to increasing elevated convection north of the boundary across parts of the Southeast, which would tend to impede the return of richer near-surface moisture. Low-level and deep-layer shear will increase across the region in response to the approaching shortwave trough and developing surface low. If richer low-level moisture (upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints) can return inland, then some potential for rotating surface-based convection with a threat of locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado could evolve prior to the end of the forecast period. However, with extensive antecedent convection potentially suppressing low-level moisture return through 12Z Saturday, no probabilities have been included at this time. Small hail could accompany the stronger elevated convection north of the front, but modest elevated buoyancy will likely tend to limit the severe threat with this activity. ...TX South Plains into western north TX... Cold temperatures aloft (less than -20C at 500 mb) attendant to the shortwave trough will overspread parts of the TX South Plains and western north TX during the afternoon. This will support SBCAPE increasing to around 500 J/kg where temperatures can warm into the mid 50s F. A few thunderstorms with small hail and gusty winds will be possible, though with buoyancy and deep-layer shear expected to remain modest at best, the organized-severe threat appears low at this time. ..Dean.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday, though a few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast vicinity, and also across parts of Texas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains on Friday. A weak surface low initially near the TX South Plains is expected to weaken, with renewed cyclogenesis possible Friday night near the Louisiana Gulf Coast vicinity. ...Central Gulf Coast vicinity... Convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning from near the central Gulf Coast into the northwest/north-central Gulf of Mexico, though guidance varies regarding the coverage and southward extent of morning storms across the region. The evolution of morning convection and its potential persistence into the afternoon will determine how far north the effective surface warm front can move (and also the favored location for cyclogenesis) in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strengthening low-level warm advection during the evening/overnight will also likely lead to increasing elevated convection north of the boundary across parts of the Southeast, which would tend to impede the return of richer near-surface moisture. Low-level and deep-layer shear will increase across the region in response to the approaching shortwave trough and developing surface low. If richer low-level moisture (upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints) can return inland, then some potential for rotating surface-based convection with a threat of locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado could evolve prior to the end of the forecast period. However, with extensive antecedent convection potentially suppressing low-level moisture return through 12Z Saturday, no probabilities have been included at this time. Small hail could accompany the stronger elevated convection north of the front, but modest elevated buoyancy will likely tend to limit the severe threat with this activity. ...TX South Plains into western north TX... Cold temperatures aloft (less than -20C at 500 mb) attendant to the shortwave trough will overspread parts of the TX South Plains and western north TX during the afternoon. This will support SBCAPE increasing to around 500 J/kg where temperatures can warm into the mid 50s F. A few thunderstorms with small hail and gusty winds will be possible, though with buoyancy and deep-layer shear expected to remain modest at best, the organized-severe threat appears low at this time. ..Dean.. 01/25/2024 Read more

WW 0011 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0011 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0011 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0011 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley today, especially across parts of southern/eastern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana into Alabama. ...Central Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley... A linearly organized band of thunderstorms is ongoing late this morning across south-central/southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana, with some showers/thunderstorms also ongoing across the preceding warm sector across Alabama and eastern Mississippi. Cloud cover remains semi-prevalent in the warm sector, and this may tend to somewhat hinder parcel accelerations including the vigor of line-preceding storms, although additional low-level moistening will continue to occur during the day and be somewhat of an offsetting thermodynamic factor. Overall severe-conducive scenario is kinematically/dynamically supported by the steady northeastward ejection of a shortwave trough over the Ozarks toward the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through tonight, with a similar northeastward transition of strong 850 mb/700 mb winds (50+ kt in both cases) across Mississippi/Alabama toward eastern Tennessee and the southern Appalachians. This will allow for the continuation of well-organized storms as additional heating destabilization occurs and some additional updraft intensification potentially materializes. Isolated damaging winds are expected today, particularly across southeast/east-central Mississippi into western Alabama, with tornadoes a possibility as well given the degree of shear/SRH within the lowest 1-2 km AGL. At least some severe risk, likely on a more isolated/marginal basis, could move into additional parts of the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians by late afternoon and evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/25/2024 Read more